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ReimerpYsatnaf
02 Jan 12 11:41
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 8,267 | Blogger: ReimerpYsatnaf's blog
Interesting in todays RP they ask the question. Denis O' Regan says "I think he should be shorter". Ruby says "It is". Mark Brown, Paul Kealy and James Pyman do not think it is value at this stage.
I tend to agree with them, yes he has been the most impressive novice at the trip so far but 5/2 is plenty short enough with still over 2 months to go.
Also at the back of my mind is how he didn't seem to get up the hill last year. Yes he ran very free (always does) and he has probably grown up and is now stronger but can you be sure it won't be the same until he actually does it.
I'm not saying he won't win and as it stands he is just as likely as any to be the winner come March but he is not for me at the current price, will he be that much shorter on the day?


What is your opinion?
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Report buddeliea January 9, 2012 7:59 AM GMT
The way the Kempton race panned out with PC clouting the 1st and never really going as we know he can,i would personally have expected both AlFerof and Cue Card to have won that race pretty comfortably.
Still think its an overreaction to make SS 5/2 on the strength of that race,but time will tell.
Report Anaglogs Daughter January 9, 2012 8:01 PM GMT
From the man who rode Moscow Flyer Barry Geraghty believes Sprinter Sacre is one of the best horses he has ever ridden after his keynote victory over Peddlers Cross in the Novices' Chase at Kempton.

NICKY HENDERSON also holds the five-year-old in the highest regard, and it was easy to see why following the gelding's 16-length defeat of odds-on favourite Peddlers Cross.

The ball quickly went into Sprinter Sacre's court when his rival belted the first. Geraghty then found himself in front and elected to press on, often getting some spectacular leaps from the free-going Sprinter Sacre. But, equally, the 11/10 winner was very good when getting in close, as he showed when jumping the final fence off his hocks.

Geraghty said: "He was all wrong at the last but was clever at it. He jumped from fence to fence and is a horse that gets your blood up. He's got the right combination of pace and respect for his fences. He's one of the best I've ever sat on -- he is frighteningly good."
Report booster January 10, 2012 5:26 PM GMT
Name the horse he said very similar things about last season.
Report sintonian January 10, 2012 5:40 PM GMT
You say that like it is a negative, Booster. Finians Rainbow finished a respectable second in the Arkle. What's wrong with that? SS just needs to go 1 place better.

And for as much as BJG was bullish about FR last season, he was totally justified as the horse has won 5 chases from 6 starts. And I dont believe he ever compared him to Moscow Flyer. Dont remember him doing so anyway.
Report sintonian January 10, 2012 5:43 PM GMT
IF anything, FR's exploits just prove we should probably listen to BJG. He's no bullshooiter.
Report buddeliea January 10, 2012 5:52 PM GMT
why do you think that sounds like a negative Sint,could just as easily be a positive question.

You getting all defensive mate??Laugh
Report sintonian January 10, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
Not if you have read the thread Budd.

Booster has made the point a couple of times that BJG was talking along the sames lines about FR as he is SS last season and has also compared FR to SS himself in his own analysis, so I think it is fair to say he is not an SS backer as indeed he was not an FR backer last season.

Basically I think he is saying BJG should not be listened to, im making the counter-argument. But Booster will confirm. Cool
Report barnesy January 10, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
That's rich budd Wink
Report sintonian January 10, 2012 6:35 PM GMT
It is. But we'll forgive him. We all do it now and then. Laugh
Report festivalfanatic January 10, 2012 7:56 PM GMT
Whatever comparisons have been made between FR and SS are irrelevant.

SS is already officially rated 4lbs superior after just 2 races over fences, is a much younger and less exposed horse with scope for considerable improvement.

This will be a much better race than last year's Arkle. Captain Chris was rated 160 after his victory and I suspect all of the first 4 in the betting this year would have beaten him. SS is certainly not unbeatable for this will be a competitive race but it will probably require a performance rating approaching 170, assuming he has luck in running and the ground isn't soft. This level is very heady stuff for a novice - Moscow Flyer and Viking Flagship territory.
Report Can't Catch Me January 10, 2012 8:06 PM GMT
I agree with the point Budd makes about how easily Al Ferof would have beaten PC last time. I think we all accept that wasnt PC's true running.

Would Al Ferof deserve to be 5/2 had he done the same? He is just about as exciting as SS in my eyes.
Report barnesy January 10, 2012 8:22 PM GMT
I dont think 2 at Kempton would of suited Al Ferof any better than it did Peddlars Cross. He looks like a 3 mile chaser to me. Reminds me of Noland, won a Supreme where they went for home too early but Arkle proved to sharp for him.
Report rhinestone January 10, 2012 8:45 PM GMT
Alf supreme win very similar to Noland, as said by barnesy.

BG didn't talk up Finians anywhere near to the level he has Sprinter.

Also 99% of people say Peddlers didn't run his race at Kempton. He simply isn't as good a chaser as hurdler.
Report booster January 10, 2012 9:52 PM GMT
I guess I was really saying it as a negative but Geraghty was very bullish about Finians Rainbow last year. In  a much weaker renewal than this year's looks like being and with the race run to suit he still couldn't hold off a stronger stayer and I feel the same could happen to this year's horse. Finians Rainbow was a stronger stayer over hurdles and couldn't hold on but these type of horses are always going to feel good at home and in small fields as they are the quickest around being pure 2 milers but may not be seen to their best at Cheltenham in a championship race.

Finians Rainbow was also pretty fortunate to  win at Aintree after and that form doesn't look great. It's just that  I'd rather back a horse who's finished off a race there if I'm taking a shortish price and both Al Ferof and Peddlers cross have already done so in the highest class. Captain Chris had not previously done so and I therefore conclude that 5-2 is too short.
Report Can't Catch Me January 10, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
I think thats a bit unfair on AF myself. He flew around Sandown in the Henry V111 and has looked every inch a 2 miler in plenty of his races so far. I think he will make a significantly better chaser than Noland did and I think he will end up being better over fences than hurdles. He looks a natural to me, something Noland never really did.

He's still my idea of the wonner and I personally think its crazy that he is 7/1 against 5/2 for SS.
Report Can't Catch Me January 10, 2012 10:18 PM GMT
SS also has to prove he isnt a flat track bully.

AF doesnt.
Report booster January 10, 2012 10:26 PM GMT
That's really my point in  a nutshell and jockeys and trainers aren't always the best people to listen to. Form at the festival speaks louder for  me and I think Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross are tough opponents.
Report booster January 10, 2012 10:26 PM GMT
That's really my point in  a nutshell and jockeys and trainers aren't always the best people to listen to. Form at the festival speaks louder for  me and I think Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross are tough opponents.
Report barnesy January 10, 2012 10:27 PM GMT
Don't get me wrong I'm not knocking al ferof, I think he looks a natural at chasing too. He just strikes me as a horse that is going to find 2 mile at the top level too sharp. The difference between being outpaced in the Supreme and the Arkle is it is much easier to skip over a hurdle when being driven than it is to get over a fence.
Report booster January 10, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
It's a fair point but you could say that chases are run slower than hurdle races so he may have more time between obstacles.
Report Can't Catch Me January 10, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
I would agree, if he wasnt a natural jumper Barnsey. I dont see why he would be outpaced in an Arkle,  not on the what I've seen so far. And I also know who I'd want to be on as they approach the hill, even if he is a few lengths down!

AF beat him 6l in the Supreme. He jumps for fun, has probbaly improved for fences, and has proven he gets up the hill. One piece of form where SS has beaten a rival who was most probably not himself, doesnt justify the difference in prices. In my opinion of course Plain
Report barnesy January 10, 2012 11:01 PM GMT
I thought he got outpaced in the Supreme when the race got serious and I found it strange how For Non Stop, a horse who also seems to need further, closed on him at Sandown. I would concede that he certainly wouldn't of been cherry ripe that day.
Should be interesting to see him in the Victor Chandler, Henderson would have a fair line through him with Finians as he did through Peddlars with Minella Class.
Report sir_arry January 11, 2012 2:24 AM GMT
Price an overreaction.  Peddlers may not have been able to live with Sprinter Sacre round Kempton after a pretty serious error at the first but I don't think chasing is to blame.  That error aside, I thought he did pretty well considering he was on the back foot pretty much the whole race.

At Cheltenham, he was good enough to give Hurricane Fly a race who in my opinion is comfortably the best hurdler since the turn of the century.  Back at a left handed, testing and undulating course in a fiercely run affair, I firmly believe Peddlers will emerge victorious and the Kempton race has only served in providing a gift of a price to his supporters, especially those who snapped up some of the double figures which were available shortly after.

Sprinter Sacre will get worried out of this race. 5/2 not a good price, anybody who thinks that Kempton race is a true reflection of where these 2 horses stand in relation to the race that matters need their heads testing!  We see this time and time again and course specialists will come back year after year and deliver the goods.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 8:26 AM GMT
I think AF was outpaced to a degree in the supreme,but we have to consider the jockeys in this.Whilst Mccoy and Tizzard went as if it was a 1m6f race,walsh realised it was actually 2m.So on that basis i think we have to be careful in thinking that AF will simply get outpaced and wont win,and that Ruby actually paced the race much better.
Watch BG on Spirit Son,he ran the race pretty well and judged it fine,but AF sped past him up that hill.

As for comparisms with Noland,yes the supreme victories can be compared,but Noland then had a year off the track with problems before his Arkle,so pinch of salt required there i think.

Barnesy,
If the Arkle is the same sort of race as the Sandown race that would not be ideal for AF,but with Cue Card and Sprinter running the Arkle should be run just how AF wants it.
Whether he will win the race,who knows,but would rather have 7 on him than 5/2 SS,its a lot closer than that imo
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 9:50 AM GMT
How did we get from SS being flattered by beating PC 16 lengths, which has an element of truth, to the assertion that AF would have done the same thing?? Cripes. Shocked
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 10:02 AM GMT
The way the Kempton race panned out with PC clouting the 1st and never really going as we know he can,i would personally have expected both AlFerof and Cue Card to have won that race pretty comfortably.

Think those comments i posted earlier started that Sint.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 10:53 AM GMT
I think its relevant to the discussion Sint.

If we accept PC didnt run his race, which most of us do, there are presumably other horses that could have beaten PC that easily that day. Which means SS being cut to 5/2 is a huge over reaction.
Report Masterminded January 11, 2012 11:29 AM GMT
Here is a piece from Nick Mordins blog & whilst I'm not saying he is right about everything the times tell you a lot about Sprinter Sacre's performance..



SPRINTER SACRE IS BRILLIANT

SPRINTER SACRE (43) put up one of the best performances we've seen from a novice chaser in years when winning the Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton. He set s scorching pace and just kept on running.

Sectional times show just how good this performance was. Sprinter Sacre got to the last on the far side (four out) 4.7 seconds before Finians Rainbow did in the Desert Orchid Chase on the same card and extended his advantage to six seconds by the finish.

As with almost all top class two mile chasers Sprinter Sacre is probably best fresh. So I'd like to see a gap of at least five weeks between his remaining starts this term now that he's had a couple of outings.

I can readily understand why the bookies cut Sprinter Sacre to 5-2 for the Arkle. That race is surely his.

In the long run it will be very interesting to see if Sprinter Sacre can stretch his stamina to three miles. That might sound like a silly idea right now seeing that he got beat the only time he tried longer than two miles. But he actually ran a very decent second that day and is built and bred to stay at least two and a half miles.

Sprinter Sacre's two winning siblings have won cross country chases over 2m 5f and 3m respectively and his sire has produced Rubi Ball who won the Prix la Haye Jousselin (the French King George) over 3m 3.5 furlongs.

What gives me confidence that Sprinter Sacre will get longer is the way he sustained such a strong gallop all the way to the line. This being so I wouldn't assume the Champion Chase will be his big target next season if he takes the Arkle this term. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him aimed at the King George.

I suggested after his last start that runner up PEDDLERS CROSS (35) might well regress if he was brought back to the races within five weeks. However it's hard to argue that lack of freshness was the main reason for his wide margin loss here. The winner had him at full stretch right from the start and beat him for pace. This being so it wasn't surprising to hear that he will now be going up in distance.


At the end of the day PC hit the first but he was torn to pieces afterwards. I find it quite laughable how people are trying to play down the Wayward Lad. It's by far the best novice performance this season. People can say Sprinter Sacre is a poor price compared to Al Ferof but he has far superior form.
Report festivalfanatic January 11, 2012 12:17 PM GMT
MM

As I've posted prevously, I believe that on decent ground and with luck in running, SS will hit a mark of approaching 170. If he does this and something beats him, it will be the best winning Arkle performance for a very long time. Races don't always go to plan though and soft ground would be against him imo.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 12:24 PM GMT
MM. With all due respect, it comes across as very patronising to say we cant discuss and dissect the Wayward Lad performance. It certainly isnt 'laughable'. Comparing times are always dangerous and you cannot guarantee that SS has superior form. The only way you cxould say that, is if you knew how close to his true form PC performed.

Nobody is doubting he was very impressive. And it would be great if we had a new 2 mile superstar. But there are enough reasons to me to suggest the difference in price between AF and SS are wrong based on what they have achieved. You might diagree with that, and thats your opinion. But I think AF at 7's is a much better bet.

A small field 2 mile chase around Kempton is a completely different test to the Arkle.
Report sir_arry January 11, 2012 12:37 PM GMT
Sectional times are all very well and good and I'm sure Nick Mordin considers himself a very clever little sausage by bringing them up.  BUT...they are only useful if analysed section by section, otherwise you fall into the trap of analysing the race by its overall pace, which is useless as different races are run at different paces from the start.

Sprinter Sacre got to the last on the far side (four out)4.7 seconds before Finians Rainbow did in the Desert Orchid Chase on the same card and extended his advantage to six seconds by the finish.

....this means pretty much nothing as it is basically saying one horse in one race got to four out quicker than another horse in another race!  Doesn't mention anywhere in that either that Finians made an absolutely shocking error at the 5th last, or that the pace from the start in that race was a dawdle.  In contrast, Peddlers Cross initially set off quick presumably to burn the finish out of SS.  This changed when PC made the error and Barry Geraghty saw his chance to seize the initiative and press on with his quicker horse.

Obviously then the time was going to be quicker than Finians Rainbow's race.  The article is nonsense.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 12:37 PM GMT
Yes it is relevant to the debate CCM, for sure. I just could not imagine AF beating PC at Kempton in those circumstances by 16 lengths unextended. That's all im saying. He may have done it by 8 or so. Silly But that really is a big big assumption to make.
Report festivalfanatic January 11, 2012 12:48 PM GMT
Paying attention to race times against standard made Phil Bull and Jim McGrath a fortune! If they went a crawl in the Desert Orchid to 4 out, then they should have finished the race quicker than SS but they didn't and once BG saw that JM had accepted the situation on PC, he cantered up the run-in.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 1:08 PM GMT
I can see that Sint and take your point!

But its a similarly huge assumption to say SS has better form imo. The Donny run proved nothing more than he was still alive, so everything about SS is being based on one run, essentially against one rival, who may or may not have under performed.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 2:25 PM GMT
Really dont see why Cue Card or Al Ferof could not have done what Sprinter did at Kempton,really dont,not the way the race panned out re PC.
Maybe you can help me Sint??

FF,
Both Finians and Wishful made bad errors in that race amongst horses when quickening towards the end.
Report Masterminded January 11, 2012 2:25 PM GMT
I'm not being patronising just my honest opinion. The Wayward Lad has been described as an "egg & spoon race" and whilst I respect all opinions I don't agree with that. It ended up being a 3 runner event but many horses ended up ducking out because connections were scared to take either on. You can't really help that. Then yourself & Bud claim that other horses could have done the same thing. Like I say I respect opinions but I've seen nothing to suggest any other novice can beat PC by 16 lengths eased down on the bridle yet. What has been the best 2 mile novice performance you have seen this season?

In reply to Sir_Arry. The fact he was so far ahead 4 out would suggest that the runners in the Desert Orchid went slow which we saw visually. The fact they went slow and quickened into a sprint for the finish suggests they should have closed on him. Given Sprinter Sacre had done a lot more early in the race and eased down towards the line again would point to the runners in the Desert Orchid closing on him on the clock. He actually increased his lead by another 2 seconds. While I don't take times & sectionals as the be all & end all especially in NH racing it does confirm the run was as good as it looked. I'm not saying running a fast time around Kempton will win an Arkle but it does confirm he's a pretty serious horse.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 2:31 PM GMT
So the Fact that PC clouted the 1st and we have no idea how that may have affected the horse dont matter??

Well it does when taking this form as the reason a horse is 5/2 fav for the Arkle,and again i say,given the same scenario why could CC and AF not win that race just as well??
Report Masterminded January 11, 2012 3:00 PM GMT
It really wasn't that bad though was it Bud? He had plenty of time to recover. I would be concerned if my horse as a chaser ducked out of a race after just going through the top of one. How many lengths did he lose at it? Your welcome to take it out of the winning distance because I would hope you have a better eye than to think he lost 16 at it. If the horse was indicating there was that much wrong with him I would trust Jason Maguire would have pulled him up.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 3:07 PM GMT
of course he did not lose 16 lenghts at it.The point is we have no idea how it affected the horse,who knows how a horse will react the 1st time it happens to him.Maybe he was hurting somewhere or it had a psychological affect,we just dont know,but whatever the reason its pretty obvious PC did not run his race,well it is to me anyway.
And the price of SS is largely based on that,and a bit of connections hype probably as well.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 3:11 PM GMT
MM. The point Bud and I are making, is that you are assuming that was PC's true running, as much as we are assuming it wasnt.

SS's chase form is worthless, aside from one horse. That makes it a very risky proposition if you are backing it at 5/2 for a race that will represent a completely different test, at a track he patently didnt get home at last season.

Dont get me wrong, you are entitled to your opinion and I can see whay you think it. I am not saying your points are laughable am I?
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 3:14 PM GMT
The thread is also about whether or not you think 5/2 is a fair price. Not is he deserved favourite, or has he proiduced the best form.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 3:16 PM GMT
It ended up being a 3 runner event but many horses ended up ducking out because connections were scared to take either on.

MM. Whilst that was certainly the case, that doesnt help the form does it? So is irreleavnt to my eyes.
Report Masterminded January 11, 2012 3:47 PM GMT
To be fair though I haven't been making laughable comments. I haven't been knocking other peoples selections & I haven't been describing races as "egg & spoon races". All I have done is state why I think Sprinter Sacre is a good horse and given reasoning behind it. I have acknowledged PC's mistake at the first and I wouldn't totally write off PC having an off day. Even so he will need to improve a huge amount and for me the reason he lost by 16 lengths is because he was punished by a faster more athletic horse.

I have refrained from really talking about Al Ferof because I like him as a horse & I'm not one for knocking decent horses. But please explain how Al Ferof on his 2nd start over fences could have beaten Peddlers Cross 16 lengths on the bridle around Kempton? He beat For Non Stop by a small margin and had to work hard to do so. This was at Sandown which by the comments I have read so far should suit him down to the ground if he's going to fly up this dreaded hill. That horse has subsequently been beaten easily by Cue Card giving weight & making multiple errors.

Apologies if I am missing something very obvious but feel free to explain but please.. Try not to bring horse psychology or ifs buts & maybe's into it as that will make me laugh again.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 4:03 PM GMT
its all about the price though,and their has to be ifs buts and maybes when talking about a horse thats had 2 races over fences and is 5/2 for an Arkle.

But please explain how Al Ferof on his 2nd start over fences could have beaten Peddlers Cross 16 lengths on the bridle around Kempton? MM,this has been explained already my friend.

As for Al Ferof,he did not have the race to suit him at Sandown,think we all agree on that.Hes a horse that needs a strong run race to show his best as in the supreme for example.
FNS jumped well at Sandown and is probably better than some think,he did not jump well against Cue Card,so bit hard to know where he would have finished had he jumped as he did at Sandown,its entirely possible he could have beat Cue Card,possible.That would put him in the Arkle picture.
As for this laughable bit,personally i have seen loads of comments on this threrad that i disagree with,but i dont think i have read any laughable comments-on either side of the fence.
Report Can't Catch Me January 11, 2012 4:15 PM GMT
I havent been kocking other peoples selections either? Can you point out my 'laughable' comments?

You seem unable to accept anyone elses point of view. I have accepted that its quite possible that Wayward Lad form was top class, and I also accept SS is a worthy fav for the race. My asserion is that AF should not be three times the price of SS. If you think thats laughable then good luck to you.

AF beat him fair and square over hurdles. He looks a natural chaser, which means SS is going to have to have found alot of improvement to beat him in the Arkle. AF isnt a flashy horse, he is workmanlike. Its hard to know how far he could beat horses by. I think he is a bit lazy and hitting the front so soon at Sandown didnt really suit him. He would be highly unlikely to beat PC that far as that isnt his running style. But we are guesing at how good that form is.

I dont think you really diagree with what I'm saying, you just seem a bit argumentative.

I'll leave you to it now. To clairify, I think SS is a worthy fav, and has produced the best form in the race. But doesnt deserve to be 5/2 fav or AF be 3 times his price.
Report Mr Eboue January 11, 2012 4:28 PM GMT
I agree with CCM here.

I very much doubt SS would be a 5/2 shot without Geraghty gushing over him.

I know who is a better trainer of 2m chasers aswell.

I very much think Paul Nicholls is enjoying all the sttention that SS is getting.

It keeps Al ferof out of the spotlight.

For me SS should be a 4/1 shot and AF 11/2 maybe.
Report rhinestone January 11, 2012 4:34 PM GMT
SS was a general 5/2, 11/4 shot straight after the race, he hasn't shortenend dramatically after Barry was talking about him after the race.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 4:49 PM GMT
buddeliea
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Really dont see why Cue Card or Al Ferof could not have done what Sprinter did at Kempton,really dont,not the way the race panned out re PC.
Maybe you can help me Sint??


No offence Budelia but if you cant see SS has speed to burn, particularly in comparsion to CC and AF, then I dont think I can help you tbh.

I have readily accepted SS was flattered by the winning margin of his victory over PC, but the layers are in danger of totally dismissing the run because of a first fence mistake, which is folly, and forgetting the fact SS had any amount in hand when he crossed the line. We also need to be fair to SS in that he has far less racing experience than every other runner in the Arkle. We just dont know how good he is.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
Mr Eboue, you cant get 7/1 in several places for AF.

And as an SS backer I am still considering a saver on him, fwiw, but just want to see IF he will run in the VC Chase in two weeks.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 5:07 PM GMT
Budde, may be you can make the case for AF winning 16 lengths ..
Report sir_arry January 11, 2012 5:51 PM GMT
I can understand why there was an immediate reaction in the prices for the Arkle after SS beat Peddlers so easily but whilst Peddlers has shortened up again, the SS price has been pretty solid at around 5/2.  In fairness, if Jason Maguire had really gone for Peddlers after the 2nd last he may have got to within 5 lengths or so, but he knew he was beat and clearly accepted that there are bigger fish to fry later on. 

Sprinter Sacre on paper has produced the best piece of form in relation to the Arkle.  But other things definitely have to be considered, such as the fact that Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof have both shown superior form at Cheltenham and imo neither have confirmed as of yet that they are better hurdlers than chasers.  Also, how many winners of the Wayward Lad since it was made an Arkle trial in 2000 have gone on to place never mind win the Arkle.  Definitely no winners and I can't think of a placed horse either.  In fact I think only Fondmort has gone on to actually record a Festival win and that was in the Ryanair.  It is similar statistics for the Feltham in relation to the RSA.  Kempton form just does not stand up at Cheltenham that well.
Report festivalfanatic January 11, 2012 6:04 PM GMT
It looks to me that there are only 4 possible winners of this race. Cue Card does have a chance but would neeed an error free round - hasn't produced one so far - and he has the 5lb penalty on board.

If his chance is fairly represented in the 10/1 price, AF for me has a better chance than PC, who I can still see ducking this fight but nonetheless they both trade around 5/1 or 6/1, what price should the favourite be? Any other entries will be running for the book.
Report barnesy January 11, 2012 6:13 PM GMT
I wouldn't want to say for certain how close Peddlers Cross was to his true form at Kempton. The mistake at the first obviously wouldn't of helped but I am leaning towards believeing what i saw for a few reasons. Firstly because I didn't think PC would be suited to the demands of the race before the race and therefore in a way I was unsurprised to see him beaten so far. Secondly, because of the visual impression Sprinter Sacre left me with, at some fences he was breathtaking and at the ones he wasn't he looked very clever and assured. I would have to throw the time of the race in there even though I don't particularly pay too much attention to times in NH racing. To those confident PC was along way below his best I would be interested to hear how they assess his chances now in the Arkle?
Sir-arry, strongly agree that Kempton form is not to be taken too seriously in relation to Cheltenham, in that regard I guess our main difference of opinion is how we rate his Supreme run and how much he will of learned from that experience.
Talking of laughable comments, I had to have a small chuckle at the assertion that Paul Nicholls would enjoy being out of the spotlight!
Report bornisthekingofSB January 11, 2012 6:19 PM GMT
my fear for ss is he does seem to race with the choke out,which may not help him at cheltenham
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 6:21 PM GMT
Should say, you can get 7/1. Typo.
Report sir_arry January 11, 2012 6:39 PM GMT
Barnesy,

Thought tbh when watching the Supreme that he was going to waltz away with it, but the two stronger stayers came and worried him out of it in the end and not even McCoy could rouse a big finish out of him.  My one worry as an opposer of SS in the Arkle would be whether he has strengthened up considerably since then but his performance at Kempton has only served to fuel my belief that he is better suited to a speed track.
Report Rod Tidwell January 11, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
My what a volatile thread this is!

I wouldnt back SS at 5/2 but wouldnt lay him either so price is fair enough for me.

Any price with double figures for Cue Card is my idea of value though at present
Report barnesy January 11, 2012 6:48 PM GMT
Fair enough arry can certainly see that point of view. Often it's the stance I would take with speed horses at Cheltenham. This one really seems to of caught my imagination though and I seem to of developed a real soft spot for him.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 6:49 PM GMT
Yep wouldn't disagree Rod. I think you can make a case for Menorah at 14/1 aswell.

There are a few horses who look good prices atm.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 6:59 PM GMT
Sint,
I dont think we know how good either of them are as they had have only had 2 chases each,AF and SS that is.

As for AF beating PC 16 lengths i see no reason why he cant, given the same as what happened at Kempton.
Just cos he aint a flashy speed horse to the eye does not mean he cant give a horse a drubbing,and as PC did not imo show his true form,then i think it perfectly reasonable to expect a horse that i think very highly of for the best 2m novice race,to beat him comfortably,which was my original comment.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 7:10 PM GMT
Barnesy,
I aint a PC backer,but if i were i would not be tearing up my betting slip just yet.
His hurdles form at the corse is top class,hes had 3 chases 2 of which he jumped really well,and the 3rd he made a bad mistake and did not run his race.
If he turns up on the day and jumps well hes a big threat imo,as are 3 maybe 4 others.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 7:11 PM GMT
yeah but AF needs a strong pace to run at to be seen at his best.. he would not have got that in the Wayward vs PC.

It's all academic anyway. He'll have his ideal conditions in March.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 7:16 PM GMT
Yeh,a strong pace it would have been a distance!!Laugh

Dont we just love it!!
Report the bairn January 11, 2012 7:25 PM GMT
sir_arry,Kempton form does not really stand up at Cheltenham, like em, Long Run, Kauto Star, Dessie, Arkle, and lots more. cheers.
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 7:26 PM GMT
Now that it is pocket talk Budd. ExcitedCool
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 7:29 PM GMT
Which race track did Captain Chris break his maiden at over fences directly prior to winning the Arkle ?? Wink
Report buddeliea January 11, 2012 7:31 PM GMT
Laugh

Tell you what,theres going to be some fun on here after the race,eating the humble pie!!
Report sintonian January 11, 2012 7:37 PM GMT
Indeed. Laugh

Hopefully it is a clean contest so no excuses can be offered.
Report the bairn January 11, 2012 7:39 PM GMT
the good thing is, everyone has a strong opinion about their fancy and nothing anyone says will rock them. cheers.
Report booster January 11, 2012 8:05 PM GMT
I've not seen anything derogatory about Sprinter Sacre on here and hope he's the real deal as we all love to see top class horses but his price is a function of having beaten a horse who didn't turn up and his jockey telling us how good he thinks he is. As far as Al ferof beating Peddlers Cross 16 lengths goes, I don't think he needs to and I don't think Captain Chris or countless other Arkle winners would have done so for one reason - The Arkle is not a test of pure speed but the ability to stay a searching 2 miles at championship pace and stay on strongly in direct contrast to Kempton's demands.
Report tomdeane January 11, 2012 8:14 PM GMT
^ Agree completely with this. Nobody is knocking Sprinter Sacre - just his price.

Also wanted to add my agreement to the point made earlier that the 16 lengths is a red herring. Peddlers could clearly have got a good deal closer if asked for everything but Maguire sensibly eased off him when beaten.
Report sir_arry January 12, 2012 12:59 AM GMT
Indeed!  Sprinter Sacre is obviously a hugely talented animal and has shown this on a number of occasions.  But for his price to be as it is based on one run where his market rival was unsuited by conditions and the way the race panned out is a tad silly.  Different test entirely in March and it just goes to show what visual impression and hype can do to a market.

Not for a minute knocking the horse, or his backers.  He is extremely exciting.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 9:55 AM GMT
That is exactly how I feel. I love the horse.... Which fan of the game doesnt?
Report tinkler January 12, 2012 10:11 AM GMT
You'd need to be pretty confident that he isn't as good as some of us think he is as in effect your backing a
2/5 shot. At those kind of odds you cann't afford many mistakes.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 10:22 AM GMT
I've laid him tinkler. Quite happy to have Al Ferof, Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Cue Card and all the others running for me! Its the best Arkle I can remember in a long, long time.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 12, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
Reminds me a lot of Azertyuiop to be honest, was! I really like him! I bet those who aint backed him at 5/2 now, will be A: wishing the did cos he is shorter than 6/4 on the day, or B: happy with what they already have but in the back of their minds really hope they were right to not back at 5/2!
Report festivalfanatic January 12, 2012 12:35 PM GMT
CCM

It most certainly is the best quality Arkle in a generation and hopefully they all both get there in one piece and come home in one.

If you are a true fan of jump racing, then you will be at Prestbury Park on the 13th March. Even if you only go racing one day a year, make this the day.
Report sintonian January 12, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
going for the Double Whammy, CCM. Good luck.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 1:59 PM GMT
Dont worry ff, there is nobody more focussed on the 13th March than I am. One of the biggest days of my life for different reasons Wink

Although depending on the result of the first race, I may or not not even be watching!
Report Desmond Orchard January 12, 2012 2:25 PM GMT
CCM, I've not seen you mention him, so am going on the stable, but one of my birds has been twittering too, if I'm right. A nice price in a weak looking race. That said my biggest AP punt of the festival 2 years ago was SFTH, same bird, disappointing outcome. Cry
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 2:29 PM GMT
Have mentioned him on a couple of threads DO... yes its certainly not looking a vintage renewal, so think we'll have a chance. Will just be delighted to be going with one with a squeak tbh.

Yes SFTH was disappointing more often than not. Couldnt believe the gamble on him a couple of years ago... did my conkers too Sad
Report festivalfanatic January 12, 2012 2:36 PM GMT
Sorry CCM, my comment about being there wasn't directed at you personally....it was to everyone on this board! If you won't pay to go and watch this, then frankly the game is not in your blood.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 2:39 PM GMT
No worries ff, I love your enthusiasm!!
Report Masterminded January 12, 2012 2:53 PM GMT
Fair enough I have not tried to be argumentative just trying to share my opinions. It's important we all have different ones. Have followed the horse from his very first bumper so I have always had a huge amount of confidence in the horse. Those who didn't really expect him to win at Kempton can probably justify thinking that it was a bit of a non event and Peddlers ran a stinker. I was confident he would beat PC and even said to a few mates I thought he would win by a few lengths. Granted I wasn't expecting him to win by that far but was no surprise after he was allowed to dominate the race. Plenty of people who disagree though so I'm sure we will find out who was right or wrong very soon. Personally I can only see SS's price contracting tbh unless Al Ferof wins the VC well. Interesting both PC and AF have Champion Chase entries. If one or the other go you would have to think SS would be huge at 5/2.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 3:05 PM GMT
Thats my worry as an AF backer MM. The CC is argubaly weaker than the Arkle. If he wins the VC as you say, I think they'd be very, very tempted to go that way. His jumping looks so assured that you couldnt really blame them either.
Report Can't Catch Me January 12, 2012 3:07 PM GMT
If Henderson didnt have Finians, he'd probably be tempted himself...
Report festivalfanatic January 13, 2012 7:17 PM GMT
See only 6 bookmakers now go 5/2. All the rest 9/4. He's not going to get any bigger.
Report tomdeane January 13, 2012 8:34 PM GMT
Completely agree with the poster who said anyone who hasn't backed him will be hoping they are right, and also that this race (please let all the big guns get there) is the most exciting I can remember for the Festival for many a year. I'll be there and I'll be very excited as the tapes go up.

As I've said, I think 5/2 is a rotten price simply because of the extreme depth in the race, but I do love this horse and it would not surprise me to see him prove as good as he has looked. It really is an incredible punting conundrum, and I suspect he will go off at something approaching 6/4 -7/4. If that is the case I would be sorely tempted to hit the lay button - is it really only a 4/6ish chance that any of the other runners including Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof, Menorah, Cue Card, Blackstairmountain will win?

Such a fascinating race!
Report denman85 January 13, 2012 8:44 PM GMT
how is the arkle weaker than the CC when it has sizing europe the best 2miler around in it? baffles me
Report denman85 January 13, 2012 8:45 PM GMT
** how is the CC weaker than the arkle**
Report tomdeane January 13, 2012 8:49 PM GMT
It's not - I agree. The potential is certainly there for Sprinter or one or two others to be better than the current crop of all-aged two-milers but right now there is no way the QM can be described as a weaker race. Perhaps in strength in depth, but Sizing has won an Arkle and last year's Queen Mother so must be the two-mile king at present.
Report buddeliea January 13, 2012 8:55 PM GMT
Not sure about that either,but i think CCM said arguably weaker.Hes right,there is definitely an argument alright!!

I know a lot of the stats merchants are going on about the age of SE and BZ,but for me they are still the best 2 milers around till something comes along and beats them.As i have said before imo they are the best 2 milers we have seen since MF.
The Arkle horses have had 2/3 runs each over fences.
No contest in my book.
Report denman85 January 13, 2012 9:09 PM GMT
budd  do u just agree wiv whatever i say? ha
Report buddeliea January 13, 2012 9:29 PM GMT
we do seem to be on the same side tonight mate,but i think weve had disagreements before,if not you're the only one on here i aint disagreed with!!
Laugh
Report festivalfanatic January 14, 2012 5:13 PM GMT
After Menorah's effort at Kempton today, I'm even more convinced that the Arkle concerns the first 4 in the betting. I am less inclined towards Peddlers Cross or Cue Card for different reasons and believe Sprinter or Al Ferof will win the race.
Report sintonian February 17, 2012 3:11 PM GMT
6/4 top price.
Report strontium February 17, 2012 6:41 PM GMT
He looked astonishingly good today, both before the race and during it!
Report It's Me SANDER C February 18, 2012 1:40 AM GMT
SPRINTRE SACRE - One of the most exciting horses we have seen for years, Baz G was in awe of the horses perforance, and he knows a good one!The vibes were strong about this horse before he even jumped a fence, Nicky mentioned him favourably in every tour. He laughed at Peddlers cross, posting a really good time. (so called excuses for PC). Today he breaks the track record on softish ground just about making all! With a performance like his I dont even look at the opposition because it was clear he had 20lbs + in hand so whats the point. I therefore agree that he is no value at evs but how can you back against him? If we see any 6/4 on the day i'd say get stuck in!
Report Wicketd April 12, 2012 10:51 PM BST
i dont think peddlers is going to be a force over fences, it's just a gut feeling based on what we've seen so far. i wouldn't be surprised at all if he ends up a world hurdle horse next year or the year after.

he has a sort of similar profile to azertyuiop and reminds me a lot of him, although obviously that doesnt make him an automatic arkle winner.

blackstairmountain is nowhere near classy enough to win an arkle (imo). cue card and menorah, mainly menorah, would be the two i'd expect to fight it out with SS.


told you all LaughLaugh

didnt even back the fc Cry
Report Wicketd April 12, 2012 10:52 PM BST
that was in jan btw Love
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