good stuff barnesy

Go on the Tinkler I like your bold ideas.

I remember when Moscow Flyer came back to win the CC from injury, he was parading in front of the stand and the camera got a slow motion of MF just as he was starting to go from a walk into a canter down to the start he reared up really high in the air. Geraghty was holding on for dear life he kicked off his back legs and started cantering down. Geraghty was trying to keep a lid on him but he was just a passenger. With Moscow you just lit the fuse stood back and watched him go.

Sprinter Sacre is the closest I have seen to him. This horse is an out and out 2 miler if he got 1m7f in the supremes last year. He has turned inside out since then 2mile this year will be just perfect. I think he should pop him out in front and use his cruising speed and electric jumping to build up a lead then just give him a breather down the back and go again everything else will be punch drunk.

I think even if he went flat out from pillar to post he would still win everything would be gaining on him up the hill but nothing would be able to catch him before the winning post as they would say in the olden days the horse has bolted!!

Sprinter Sacre will not be stopping up the hill. He is only going to get beat by a better horse on the day. If you are backing against this horse I advise you do so by finding a better one rather than kidding yourself he won't get up the hill. You don't finish 3rd in a G1 race if you don't. He would have finished even closer if he didn't walk through the last losing all momentum. He was sent on far too early before being very tenderly handled at the end. Just compare the whip strokes of SS and the two in front of him. You can't say this is a horse that finds zilch for pressure. People have said he's too keen he uses too much energy etc but both chases he has found loads when asked to and finished his races full of it.
People seem to think SS is a clone of Finians Rainbow. They are totally different horses.

MM,not sure what you are on about to be honest.
My comments re AF picking him off are cos the race that STS describes is the type of race that imo will see AF produce his best,and i have no doubt that AF will finish the race at least as strong if not stronger than any of his opponents.

Wasn't specifically aimed at you Bud. Just saying I think he will get up the hill & for me has proved he is no bridle horse who finds nothing for pressure. A lot of people are pointing out how he travelled like the best horse but faded when he met the hill. I don't think it would have made any difference if it was uphill downhill or whatever the result would have been the same. He was racing in G1 level for the first time and was sent on too early before hitting the last. Are we saying Cue Card doesn't get up the hill also?

A horse will not place in a G1 at the festival if it doesn't stay the trip. It can get beaten by better horses but that doesn't mean they don't stay. They are after all 1 of the 3 best in UK or Ire in that division so there are plenty that would finish behind them.

When assessing value I think it's often fair to say that strong travellers who may be weaker finishers are often poor value as this trait does not cost them in prep runs as they are often comfortably better than those in opposition. The grinding types may not be seen in such a favourable light until taking on the best and therefore may represent better value. They may look more workmanlike but their ability to improve for a Championship pace may not be obvious before the day or may only become apparent at festival time hence previous festival form is probably the most important factor in a Championship race. Sprinter Sacre definitely has good festival form but not yet as good as Al Ferof and Cue Card.

Don't quite understand your logic Booster. SS has only raced once at the Festival and finished in front of Cue Card. CC has had 2 goes, as has Al Ferof. Is CC's Cheltenham form superior to AF, based on their bumper form? I don't see it but you may argue the point.

SS has had 2 very easy victories over fences but he thrashed the 2nd favourite for the Arkle in a Grade 1.....another with excellent Festival form....who was favourite to beat him on the day without breaking sweat. I suspect Peddlers Cross won't turn up on the 13th March.

SS has won 2 chases jumping great in very fast times without turning a hair. He is very unexposed, open to a huge amount of improvement and based on what we have seen so far over fences, is very much the one to beat.

it was only in the last 100 yards al ferof really pulled away and i think that just confirms that the early exertions told. tizzard made a silly move on cue card as well which took too much out of him, and spirit son ran a strange race but i also think he did too much too soon.

the fact al ferof didn't have the cruising speed to go with the front three (was alongside cue card), and the fact that ruby said he didn't think he'd win (thought ap would win turning in) also says a lot. agree with the mention of the fact that al ferof was also experienced in points and bumpers, it's a big factor considering how immature most the field are in a supreme.

I'll have a ton on that 5os the rest please!

In fairness, I don't think anyone is criticising Sprinter Sacre - just saying the price looks too short based on a few unknowns.

It is not based on hype. Nothing is 'hype'. Everyone seems to go on about 'hype' too much. It's based on his awesome performances.
I'd say the only time you can use the word is for example an unraced horse, Killer Instinct is an example.

Chasing is way different to hurdling. You don't need to stay the 2m as well over fences as you do over hurdles. Not that this is a problem for Sprinter, he was such an inexperienced baby at the festival last year, and ran a massive race. He actually came up the hill alright, and held off Cue Card for 4th really well. The last hurdle took about 4 lengths out of him I reckon.

Also he is actually bred to be a stayer as someone has already pointed out above.

Yes Alf looked a far stronger stayer in the Supreme, but he was such a streetwise, tough horse already at the time. I would guess he'd be a lot more outpaced in the Arkle than he was in the Supreme.

heart & head

hardly - only said that his price is not based on hype it's based on his performances.

A more scientific approach might be to look at the views of the offical handicapper. He already rates SS 161 - 4lbs superior to Finians Rainbow now incidentally. If the handicapper is correct, then from what we have seen the horse must be capable of a performance of 170 in the Arkle. That is probably why he is a 5/2 chance.

Can't see one for AF - FNS is 151. Suspect AF is mid-high 150's. PC is 160. Obviously PC's rating isn't based on his Feltham run! Cue Card is 155 by the way.

budd

I can't have AF out of the frame and he does seem to be a spring horse. If you are on at a big price then good luck. You can back another on the day to save your stake if you feel it necessary!

If Alf wins next week do you think he'll go for the QM? With Nicholls not having a QM horse, and the Arkle looking just as hot.

Value is in the eye of the beholder, there is no correct answer before or after the event. If you asked me if I thought you'd be able to lay shorter than 5/2 on the day with enough trading position to account for the risk of him not making it for whatever reason, I would answer yes. That is without taking into account the minor doubts about the second and third favourites' participation.

^ That's a great distinction. Mathematically there should be no difference, but as someone who bets semi-seriously but not in any way as a profession, I would hate to lay a horse I think is a likely winner. Perfectly possible to find lots of horses that are too short and I think will lose, so no need to muddy the waters with the likes of Sprinter, who could be a superstar.

To the person who said he has not been 'hyped' as his price is based on awesome performances, I would again say that is a matter of opinion based on your definition.

The fact remains there are four previous Festival winners still in the race, whereas the 5/2 favourite was a slightly weak finisher up the hill on his only previous visit to the March party. He has looked brilliant over fences but the absolute value of his form does not, in my opinion, entitle him to be 5/2. And surely he is at least a click or two shorter than he would be if Geraghty and Henderson had not been waxing lyrical as they have. There's the hype. They may be right and I do respect them, but both have been wrong before and will be again.