His value at 5/2 is always going to be a personal thing at this stage. If the race was tomorrow I think he'd be 6/4 and I think he will be fairly short in March. When taking a price that short I guess you have to take into account whether he will get to the race etc. I mean Hurricane Fly is 11/4 & that's purely based on whether he will run or not.
At the same time I don't think he is going to get any bigger in price from now until March. Even if (I doubt they will) PC or Al Ferof ran an equally impressive race as SS did at Kempton I still don't think he would be pushed out.

I actually have a very strong opinion on this, so here goes:

Firstly, I love the horse and think he looks a star. He really could be anything and I hope he does blow the field apart and win by daylight as that would be very exciting for the future. I also think he is the likeliest winner at this stage, but I do feel 5/2 is absolutely stinking value. Here's why:

As others have said, he has won two total non-events. Take nothing away from him whatsoever - he was great on both occasions - but the value of the form must be hugely suspect. Peddlers did not turn up the other day, which means the form is impossible to rate (in my opinion). And of course it was at Kempton.

Now a few people have said they are shocked when people don't learn from the past and are prepared to state a horse won't get up the hill based on one example. I think they did go too soon last year, and I suspect Sprinter is a stronger, more mature horse this season. But, we do not know this on what we have seen so far. You are taking the word of connections on that (and that is a massively dangerous game to play, historically speaking). Just to underline - I am not saying he won't get up the hill but I am saying we don't know for sure that he will, and yes, it is in the back of my mind that he might not get up it as well as some of the others.

Then, consider the strength in depth in the race. Al Ferof, Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Cue Card, even the likes of Blackstairmountain. These are all Grade One performers with the potential to win an Arkle if things pan out correctly. The first four have all won Festival races before, which suggests 5/2 about Sprinter at this stage at least is way, way too short.

Let's not forget that before Sprinter won at Kempton we were all saying that this was the best, deepest Arkle we could ever remember, yet all that has changed since then is that Sprinter was again excellent while one of his opponents ran massively below-par. To my mind that means not much has changed in the whole landscape of the race.

To sum up, I think Sprinter is the likeliest winner, but on what we know about him and the others at this stage, 4-1 would be a more realistic price.

the third line is about SS btw

I do appreciate the point that races that look very strong often fall apart with latter knowledge, but there is no changing the fact that there are four previous Festival winners towards the front of the market in this race, which, to my mind, means this is a very strong race, however you crack the eggs.

Allied to the fact that Sprinter was behind one of them when not coming up the hill as strongly as others, it's not hard for me to take him on at the price.

Interesting that few - if any - on this thread don't view SS as the likely winner. If he is the most likely winner (my view too) what price should he be? You can crab the quality/performances of the opposition in his 2 chase victories but you can't seriously question the impressiveness of the performances or the relatively quick times....despite him not being in a race on either occasion.

5/2 is as big as he is. There are actually more big bookmakers going shorter. Even if AF enhances his reputation in the Victor Chandler and PC redeems his, then I don't see him getting a lot bigger.

Value today - no, he has to get there. Would I back him at 5/2 on the day on normal Cheltenham ground - absolutely.

The Arkle few weeks ago looked really competitive but personally now I don't think it is.
Peddlers Cross's jumping was exposed at kempton and the fences at Cheltenham are probably stiffer.Trainer could
find nothing wrong with him after Kempton and maybe he ran into a monster?
Al ferof v.good chaser ,but he doesn't look exceptional and connections have entered him in the Champion Chase
     where imo there is a 30% plus chance he will run ,given the owners comments today.
Cue Card - big horse ,who's probably better on the big wide flat tracks like Newbury.
Menorah- doesn't look the horse he once was.
I don't follow the Irish form much but the betting suggests they have no superstar.
Sprinter Sacre could well be an exceptional 2m chaser already. A big athletic horse he did v.well to run 3rd
in the supreme novice last season despite his jumping technique not being ideal for hurdles(the bigger the obstacle the better he appears to jump). The time he clocked at kempton was 40 lengths quicker than Finians Rainbow over C/d on the same day and he finished the race quicker to!. In my view it was an exceptional performance and that there isn't a 2m chaser around (including non-novices) within 5 lengths of him.
Any ground except heavy is fine . Only negative is the track which can catch out v.good jumpers over 2m
(e.g moscow flyer,kauto star).
Have backed the horse at 5/2 and estimate his true odds to be 6/4 ante-post.

dont tell people it's fact Budde. There is a way of reading races.

It is a fact that Sprinter's 4 rivals have won at the festival.

It is also a fact that 3 of them were hurdles and one was a bumper.

This is a chase, and Sprinter is made for chasing in every way. What he did over hurdles was really good...he ran a blinder in the Supreme!

If Al Ferof wins the VC this weekend - will he go fav

At the moment i think the price of SS is about right

But if AF wins the weekend surely SS has to ease a bit and AF will go 3/1 or less

If we price him up on what he achieved over hurdles and fences so far he is too short, without a doubt.  Doesn't mean he can't win mind.

Whatever Sint,you and i and everyone else know he did not finish strongly up the hill.

Not at all mate,its one of the reasons why i wont take 5/2,thats all.

My Arkle book centres around having Al Ferof at 14.Thats all i have in the race,and thats looking dodgy at the moment!!I wont be having another bet until the day,if at all.

If you guys think he is to short start laying him at 3/1 or 11/4 on here I will take that thank you very much.

I had reservations about PC's jumping its too careful and he was losing lengths against SS at every fence last time out.

That would rule him out for me. Tidal Bay is the only horse I have seen who won the arkle and is also a terrible jumper.

Then you have got Al Ferof although hasn't been too impressive and nearly got turned over by FNS but this horse will only be 100% at Cheltenham.

Its pretty obvious what he will try and do as he can't jump as quick as SS he will try and stay with in touching distance and try and outstay him up the hill.

I could see SS possibly being caught if he burns himself out getting all fizzed up at the bottom of the hill. He maybe caught by a head or a length on the line but I still think SS should win.

Its just I am thinking of ways he could get beat.

sintonian -

Am interested to know how you read Sptinter Sacre's Supreme performance. Totally respect that there is more than one way to read a race but every time I see it, I come to the same conclusion (that he didn't get up the hill very strongly).

As I say, he might very well be a better, stronger horse now, but we don't know that from what we've seen this season. That's what I meant by saying the Kempton race was a non-event. Of course it wasn't because we saw Sprinter jump and travel beautifully again to confirm the impression he made at Doncaster. But in terms of form I believe it was something of a non-event - I don't believe anyone can really put much stock in the distance PC was beaten by. He was just never racing, for whatever reason. Maybe he will struggle over fences at two miles but you couldn't write him off on one bad run and think it is equally likely that something was simply amiss.

Yes, hurdling and fencing are two very different disciplines, but the horse that fought like a lion to get within a length of Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle was not the same horse that ran at Kempton. Never looked like fighting, never travelled, never jumped. So how can Sprinter have contracted to the extent that he has based on that?

That is my angle of attack. He is the likeliest winner, but I don't think he deserves to be 5/2 at this stage. And the reason I'm not laying that? I would imagine I can lay at shorter on the day with the same opposition likely in attendance as he will be hammered I'm sure.

Tom,

My view of the Supreme was that the 4th best horse ran won on the day. I think Ruby did a great job of picking up the pieces of Geraughty, McCoy and Tizzard racing seriously from too far out on young, immature horses. Cue Card pulled all the way through the race which probabaly did for his chance but Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre both looked very green in the finish which was unsurprising to me given the preparation they had been given, they hadnt come off the bridle yet over hurdles.
Spirit Son zig zagged all the way up the hill when he came under pressure, then at aintree when he was asked to go and win the race spread eagled the field in impressive fashion.
So to summise I just think Al Ferof was more street wise on the day and that with natural maturation Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre would be the ones to take from the race.

Ye, got a bit ahead of meself there sint

Fair enough barnesy - makes perfect sense.

I suppose I would point to the fact that Sprinter has not really learned much since then as another potential negative this time round. Is he any less likely to get racing too soon with the crowds and atmosphere pumping things up?

I suppose I'd also have to say that Cue Card is almost 5 times the price of Sprinter and he would be closely matched on Supreme form (arguably things went worse for him as he pulled harder for most of the race in that one). Understand that many have not been taken with the way he has adapted to chasing but I have liked what I've seen to be honest and think he is a very real danger.

^ Very true (and I wish it wasn't). It's what puts me off having a bet on him to be honest because I know full well he could give him an identical ride this year!

also regarding the point about not knowing if he's strengthened up/able to get up the hill. that's true, however, the chances of him being able to do must be far more likely than the odds of him not to. im convinced he was committed far too early in the supreme (and was keen for much of the race), all factors that culminated in his 'fading'. he'll get up the hill alright.

No worries mate.
He may not be an Arkle horse,may be a QM horse!!!
Bloody nightmare this is turning out to be.