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ReimerpYsatnaf
02 Jan 12 11:41
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Date Joined: 07 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 8,267 | Blogger: ReimerpYsatnaf's blog
Interesting in todays RP they ask the question. Denis O' Regan says "I think he should be shorter". Ruby says "It is". Mark Brown, Paul Kealy and James Pyman do not think it is value at this stage.
I tend to agree with them, yes he has been the most impressive novice at the trip so far but 5/2 is plenty short enough with still over 2 months to go.
Also at the back of my mind is how he didn't seem to get up the hill last year. Yes he ran very free (always does) and he has probably grown up and is now stronger but can you be sure it won't be the same until he actually does it.
I'm not saying he won't win and as it stands he is just as likely as any to be the winner come March but he is not for me at the current price, will he be that much shorter on the day?


What is your opinion?

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Replies: 223
By:
stevo1
When: 02 Jan 12 12:40
No way 5/2 at this stage ante-post is an awful price,you would be mad to take that price now!
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 02 Jan 12 12:47
If you've got 12/1 on him I'd be happy.

But I cant possibly say 5/2 is the right price.

Maybe on the day but not 3 months before.
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 02 Jan 12 12:56
So far we have the 3 in the RP and us 3 that don't think it's any value at the price yet the 2 jockeys think he is and one thinks he should be shorter
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jan 12 13:03
RP and us punters look at it form a betting point of view (i.e. value) - the Jockeys are just asking themselves if they think they can beat him and none of them have a horse thats likely to be able to do that imo so they therefore see him as the winner.
By:
Mr Eboue
When: 02 Jan 12 13:19
Lets say he wins again in a few weeks impressivly.

Al ferof wins a grade 2 and peddlers and another of the lesding lights win aswell.

He cant go much shorter.....

He might go to 2/1 but with Al Ferof there he's not gunna go off a silly 6/4 or something.

imo.
By:
yourlack
When: 02 Jan 12 14:27
He looked awesome. I dont think that peddlers gave his true running tho, anything round 6s for him is a great price i think.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Jan 12 14:32
The jockeys have probably listened to what BJG has said and all decided he is the one to beat.

It's hard to know if 5/2 is value, tbh. The horse is going forwards at a rate of knots and has done nothing wrong.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Jan 12 14:33
flip the question on it's head .. do you want to Lay the 5/2 ?
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 02 Jan 12 14:45
If told i had to either back him or lay him at 5/2 i would be a layer as it stands now.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 02 Jan 12 15:08
If all the msin protsgonists pitch up on the day fit and both Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross have proved their well being meantime, he can't go off a lot, if any shorter on the day. At the moment he is lousy value because he has to get there.

He didn't get up the hill in the Supreme mainly because he was weak -hence Hendo's reluctance to run. He will have developed a lot physically since March last year.

Hype has surrounded him since the day he set foot on a racecourse. If Geraghty has spun his weighing room mates the same line as he has blogged elsewhere that he is the best novice he has sat on since Moscow Flyer, no wonder the jockeys think he will be hard to beat!
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 02 Jan 12 17:41
much prefer peddlers if i had to back now!
By:
MANUELPADILLAJNR
When: 02 Jan 12 21:54
for BG to say its the best horse he has sat on including Moscow Flyer and Kicking King then the potential of the horse has to be taken on trust but at this moment he is all potential, though to be fair there is a tonne of it, i have backed Menorah at 22-1 and im very happy with that, the big day can also have an influence on horses, i had sprinter sacre at massive prices for last years festival and felt good going into it but it never haappened, 5-2 is not value, the fences will see to that and also the pace of the arkle can get horses in trouble, he may very well win but you will get bigger than 5-2 in running for sure, he only has to hit one fence
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 02 Jan 12 21:58
Since Moscow Flyer not including him. I wouldn't be a layer. May back him on the day though.
By:
MANUELPADILLAJNR
When: 02 Jan 12 22:06
gold cup i watched the interview with nick luck after the horse own the other day and he said it was the best horse he had sat on, nick luck then pressed him about this and mentioned both Moscow aand Kicking King and his opinion on sprinter remained the same, he had the chance to say the others where better but he didnt do it, of course he can only be talking about potential as moscow is an all time great and sprinter would do wonders to achieve half of what he did
By:
sj
When: 02 Jan 12 23:01
"One of the best" Was the BJG quote.
By:
Wicketd
When: 02 Jan 12 23:03
i do think he's value at the current price. he's looked the only out and out two miler of all the novices so far imo, and i think he can do them all for speed. he didnt beat anything on chase debut, but it was such a great performance. clever, spring heeled jumping. peddlers wasnt suited to kempton and made a bad blunder, but he beat him like he was a 140 horse.

i dont like CH horses going chasing and peddlers is apparently stepping up in trip now anyway. i dont think he'll be winning at the festival wherever he goes, don't like the way he jumps.

al ferof for me wants further than two, and i think SS can easily reverse supreme form over fences. there's just a slight doubt hanging over al ferof imo, think he could get beat before the festival.

dont like the way menorah has been campaigned but he's a class horse and would be my saver bet if he goes. i didnt touch sizing last year because of how he was campaigned and look where that got me. the others just dont look arkle horses or are just out of their depth.

so based on that, if the race were to be run tomorrow i dont think SS would be bigger than 6/4. yes it's a few months away but im prepared to take the risk. you even already have a trainer in alan king not wanting to go near him. he looks pretty exceptional and his price is only going to shorten imo.
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 03 Jan 12 09:53
i do think he's value at the current price. he's looked the only out and out two miler of all the novices so far imo


Recent history says you want a horse who gets further than 2m to win an Arkle. Captain Chris, Sizing Europe, Forpadydeplasterer, Tidal Bay, My Way De Solzen, Voy Por Ustedes are the previous 6 winners and i wouldn't say any of them bar maybe Sizing Europe and Voy Por Ustedes are out and out two milers and even Sizing gets the best part of 2m 6-7f on soft ground and Voy Por stayed at least 2m 4f.

It's interesting as there is always a favourite in one of the novice divisions that divides opinion and it looks like it could be this lad this year. I always thought last year he would make a better chaser and hopefully he turns out as good as those close to him think he is but unless a lot of the dangers redirect to other races i can't see him going much shorter.
By:
Wicketd
When: 03 Jan 12 22:56
that's true, but then we don't know what sprinter sacre is capable of in two/three years, maybe he will stay 2m4f or more. Sizing and Forpady are two milers tho, despite getting further. Voy Por won the CC the year after the Arkle as well and wasnt stepped up in trip until taking on master minded at aintree a few years later. azertyioup/well chief/moscow were all arkle winners that were out an out two milers. i think the staying thing is a bit of a myth, some of the arkles won by the stayers were awful runnings.

sprinter sacre's price can't get any bigger is what i'm saying. Al Ferof, Cue Card, Peddlers aren't capable of putting up a performance that'll lengthen SS's price, imo, and if they underperform, ss gets shorter.

people will doubt it just because it's 'cheltenham', but from what i've seen so far from every horse prominent in the arkle market needs to improve a lot to beat him.
By:
booster
When: 04 Jan 12 03:46
Reminds me of Finian's Rainbow, a fast out and out 2 miler who will always struggle up the hill in a championship race but look great round Newbury, Kempton etc where his raw speed will have others in trouble a long way out. The Arkle isn't littered with winners of this type. I'd say he's got the best park course form but 5-2 isn't value now.
By:
rhinestone
When: 04 Jan 12 06:21
These people who say he compares to Finians Rainbow are very one-dimensional. Same trainer yes.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Jan 12 06:49
Dont see how 5/2 after his 2 chases can be fair to be honest.I certainly would not touch it with a bargepole.Both races were pretty much non events in terms of proper races,1st being a training session,and the 2nd against a non performing Peddlers who clouted the 1st fence.
He could be the best thing since bread came sliced,but then again he could fail to get home on the course again.Both are possible but 5/2 at this stage is not how i want to find out!!
By:
booster
When: 04 Jan 12 10:15
Same trainer, similar performances pre Cheltenham (cruising round on the bridle against inferior opposition and being heavily backed as a result), similar performances at Cheltenham (cruising round on the bridle then finding very little, twice now in the case of Finian's Rainbow) so very much more than one dimension, that's 3 I've mentioned there. When you chuck that little lot in , 5-2 makes very little appeal.
By:
allinadayswork
When: 04 Jan 12 10:26
I'm on at 11/4, don't see the non staying argument as being the slightest of worries myself unless it came up soft or worse, which has to be on the unlikely side.
By:
ReimerpYsatnaf
When: 04 Jan 12 10:33
Good to see you are still around allinadayswork, you given up the dogs totally and just concentrating on the horses?? Hope things are going well.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Jan 12 11:14
Whatever way you look at it,hes ran once at Chelt and failed to get home.That would concern me a tad if thinking of taking 5/2.Especially with horses like PC and AF who we know will stay well.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 04 Jan 12 11:34
Whoever thinks he's like Finians Rainbow should read Geraghty's blog, who says he's nothing like him!

Reference to last year's Supreme is a complete red herring. He was immature and weak. Soft ground is likely to prove a bigger barrier to winning than the hill.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Jan 12 11:45
Well i aint saying he wont get home,just that i wont take 5/2 to find out for definite.
To be honest i think if he setles ok in the race he will get home ok,but thats only what i think,i dont know till he runs in the race.Thats where the do i take that price comes in.
What i do know is AF will definitely get home,but then i dont know if he will be good enough to beat SS and the rest.But then i have 14 on that happening.
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Jan 12 11:53
Budde, it takes someone quite stupid to conclude a horse failed to get home based on one run at a track, where he actually framed, in a Grade 1, as a novice. I suspect you said the same things about Binocular.

History is absolutley littered with horses placing at Cheltenham as noivce but then winning later on.

Always amazes me why people cant learn from this.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Jan 12 12:04
Sint,i just said i think he will get home.
Its the price i dont like mate,cos theres a chance im wrong and 5/2 is too short at this stage for me.

Read back the Bino threads if you can find them mate,you will see that i always said Bino was fine at Chelt,and he simply got beat by a much older and stronger horse in Captain CB.
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Jan 12 12:13
I've no idea if 5/2 is value or not. You can pick holes but you can do the same for other candidates ..

My point is re SS, if he failed to get home when finishing 3rd, then what about all the others in behind that day ??
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Jan 12 12:27
Thats a fair point mate, and much the same as i used to say re Bino in the supreme.
The thing is SS was going better than either Spirit Son or Al Ferof towards the end of the race,so he obviously did not get home as well as those 2.

Im not picking holes as such,just the price and my feeling about taking it,which is the topic of the thread.
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Jan 12 12:35
Not if the front two took each other on too soon, Budd. They were sitting ducks,imo. And Cue Card finished 4th who had won at the track twice previously.
By:
Wicketd
When: 04 Jan 12 12:56
just what i was about to say ^

i think the supreme can only be looked at in one obvious way. they just went for home too early. cue card and sprinter sacre's moves to hit the front and attempt to kick on were premature and took a lot out of them. add in the fact that he was keen early and was pulling ap's arms out for most the way.

i never get why people write off horses as maybe not getting home when they've run second or third in a grade one novice race.

simply, the horses with a lot of stamina already came to the fore in the supreme. spirit son then winning impressively at aintree over 2 and a half.

comparisons with finian's are irrelevant. two completely different horses with different profiles. as said, same trainer is about the only similarity.
By:
buddeliea
When: 04 Jan 12 15:24
yep,in hindsight they probably did go too early,but they were travelling so well i dont think the jockeys had a lot of choice really.Be interesting to see if the same happens in the Arkle.
Personally i aint writing SS off as a horse that dont get home,i was just saying he did not in the supreme,well not as well as the front 2,but i appreciate their were reasons as have been discussed.

But anyway this thread is all about the 5/2 price so unless we are actually discussing that,i think this current discussion belongs on the Sprinter Sacre thread on the Cheltenham forum.
By:
booster
When: 04 Jan 12 15:25
I don't see where he's been written off but the question being asked is whether he's value at 5-2 and some of us feel he isn't. Realistically to be taking that price now, you'd need winning Cheltenham Festival form or more evidence of his likely superiority in a Championship race eg. Sizing Europe has won twice at the festival, is clearly the horse to beat this year but, because he'll be 10 next year, is available at bigger odds than Sprinter Sacre who was admittedly impressive at Kempton but was similarly so in the run up to Cheltenham last year. And as for listening to the jockey, he was telling everyone that Finian's Rainbow was a machine last year and he would have been beaten by Ghizao at Aintree if he could jump, form which looks questionable in high class now.
By:
Wicketd
When: 04 Jan 12 15:42
take your points, fairplay.

finian's though was available at much bigger prices even after two runs, which goes to show the general regard/view people have for sprinter sacre in comparison.

i never liked FR last year and actually place laid him. this year i love sprinter sacre. dont think they are alike in any aspect.
By:
rhinestone
When: 04 Jan 12 15:42
Different horses. Sorry it'd take me a while to explain everything, and I can't be bothered.

Good luck on the race everyone. Cool
By:
allinadayswork
When: 04 Jan 12 16:30
I agree perhaps wouldnt want to take much shorter than what I have got (11/4) but while they will be going fast for a novice chase, it won't be the same breakneck pace of a multi runner hurdle race around Cheltenham - for a start they need to give themselves time to organise themselves to jump the bigger fences!
Plus the horse was always regarded as more of a chasing type anyway so I think the placed form around here is a big plus for me with more to come.
By:
allinadayswork
When: 04 Jan 12 16:36
Just to reply to PF yes all is well mate, mainly on the nags now!! Anyway back to the subject lol.
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