Horse Antepost
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TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2011-12 THREAD. Books available to order now.
TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2011-12 THREAD. Books available to order now.
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I agree, there are so many conditions races (20 and 25 pointers) over 2.5 and 3 miles in Ireland that he could capitalise on.
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Slightly concerned he is entered in the Morgainna; no good keep coming second to HF!
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Getting the Paddy Power winner makes all the difference.
Mon Parrain is clearly highly regarded, but 5 year olds just dont win this race. Not even the Long Run could do it! Daves Dream and the Giant Bolster look the most likely winners. I can see a huge plunge on Daves Dream tomorrow. See him going off at 6/1. He is mustard first time out. The cheek pieces are on and Barry has chosen to ride him. The Giant Bolster could be the big differentiator. He could do the PP Hennessy double. The PP is on the short side for him - and he needs to jump the fences! |
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I saw the entry in the Morgainna and thought the same thing!
Why !! |
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penzance, woodworm, guys I think you are probably right, the site confused me.It seems the £250000 is the guaranteed payout for all prizes/dividends not just the winner, but it is definitely ambiguous.It seems odd to me that thay are emphasising this guarantee when it always exceeds it anyway
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My understanding is the winner gets 250k (or more if entries exceed this amt) if the total minus 30%, minus 105k is less than this figure, Bettfredd will make up the difference.
Second place still gets 10%, third 5% etc..etc.. because the winner is only taking 70% of the balance wether it reaches 250k or not. Is thet clearer? |
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Take 50,000 entries = 500k
minus 30% admin = 350k minus 105k monthlies etc = 245k 70% to winner = 171.5k (rounded up to 250k by BF) 10% to second = 24.5k 5% to third = 12.25k etc... |
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If my maths is correct; need approx 66,000 entries before the 250k target is reached. Any less and BF have to bump up the dividend.
66,000 = 660k, minus 30% = approx 460k, minus 105k = approx 357k x 70% = 250k Sorry if I'm boring everyone! |
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You're doing very well Woodworm!
Even I can understand it now! |
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now I think I am right again, there is no way that BFred will take a hit - surely? Anyway we'll find out in a week or so
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I only did 30 entries this time. I was just too tired to put in more last night. I have pretty much gone all or nothing on Mon Parrin and Wishfull Thinking this time. If neither wins I am knacked. I did put The Giant Bolster in 3 or 4.
It feels a funny year. I did the obvious bankers too, but really struggled to get enough good horses. I think I included more novice chasers than normal too. Normally I am struggling to think which horses to cut. good luck all |
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DRVEB.
No Sommersby's this year. |
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TEN2FOLLOWER 11 Nov 11 14:34
I'd love to see someone from here win something. Good luck all. Totally agree with that. Best of luck to everyone on here. Hopefully the 250k guarantee has attracted more people to enter, and maybe even gets a first prize exceeding that amount. When I finished 4th a couple of years ago, the total prize fund was £1 million guaranteed, and the top prize was just over 440k. |
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on the board with Quel Esprit hopefully a good start to the day with more points to come
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Great Endeavour
 That's not the horse I wasted a selection on last year! |
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57 points
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Right horse, wrong year! I might have made the top 10 if he had done that last year. Needless to say, I left him out completely this year. Not a good start.
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I had him last year,not this one.
Go for the Hennessy? |
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Possibility
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if he wins the Hennessy I'm out before its begun.
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As short a 6/1 with some for Henessey, off 10-4 there with penalty so with 7lb still only level weights with 1813
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Think you can surviv not having him if he scores no more points, but hard to challenge if he takes Hennessy too (like Celestial Halo did).
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joci
i was going to ask you that very question....if only divers could jump |
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could have been worse i suppose...was going to throw 2 at the race but chose the hennessy instead....would have been worse if MP or WT won.
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1st 4 races @ Festival had Al Ferof, Captain Chris, Great Endeavour & Hurricane Fly. GE fall stopped a £3k+ win becoming a £35k+ win.
In zero lists but did back the old bug ger again it@12's for some consolation. |
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Ayear too late for me too.
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Cue Card,Loosen My Load,Mon Parrain,Wishfull Thinking,
Restless Harry,Chigago Grey and Balthazaars King makes it a bad start for me. GL |
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D Route V E Bleu
Toyed with Tullamore but didn't bother TEN,Blimey Child !! devastating 6th to 11th..........nightmare Yeah tell me about it. If Peddlers had have won he Aintree Hurdle, I'd have been guaranteed a top six place. Oh well..... On the Great Endeavour subject, didn't include him in any of my lists but I'm not too worried as long as he doesn't win the Hennessy. There's not gonna be that many lists with him in them I reckon. Maybe 80-100 lists at the most. And with so many Grade 1 races these days, its not the end of the world not having today's winner. It's a very long competition  |
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I think you underestimate the number of Great Endeavours at 80-100.
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Wishful Thinking maybe but then again, I had him in most of my lists
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GE in one of my 8 lines, would say is in over 500 entries
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joci
how many of your 52 lines did you have him in.....i'll take a guess at 8 if i may |
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Way over, only 2 in fact.
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We were top heavy on Mon Parrain and Wishfull Thinking with just a couple for cover of some of the other horses. Glad Great Endeavour stood up at the last as we didn't have any Quantitativeeasing.
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Our Hennessy horses in the GE lists are Wayward Prince and Joncol (and potentially GE himself of course).
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i'd like to think it isn't the end of the world if you haven't got the PP winner in.....tbh if it is then it makes the comp somewhat flawed doesn't it....unless you do multiple entries it's hard to hit the first inner......and for a marathon race to be over going across the melling road for the 1st time
 seems a bit lopsided ......here's hoping anyhow. |
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I wouldn't lose hope...loads of bonus races, and people won't have the combinations to have all of them together. Things might have levelled out after the Hennessy, if GE doesn't win that as well, plus we'll have had a few 25 pointers by then, so all is far from over.
There probably will be a tiny percentage of lists who will have both Paddy Power and Hennessy winners. |
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Estimates in the hundreds seem optimistic to those of us without GE. Last year GE was in 12466 lists as the 2nd or 3rd fav in the PP, this year 3rd fav (although admittedly not as short A/Post). I think he could easily be in a few thousand(I would estimate 4000)lists if we have a similar number of entries to last year.
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people who don't have him might get away with it
because he may not stay in the HGC. |
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Settled better today than any time last year so perhaps grown up a bit. I think if it is not too soft they wont be able to resist.
HGC normally taken by 2nd season chasers but GE has more experience but will still get to race off a similar mark. |