Horse Antepost
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TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2011-12 THREAD. Books available to order now.
TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2011-12 THREAD. Books available to order now.
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tnx jc
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ALDERBROOK 50/1
Finished in top 30 last year..if Mccoy hadnt c ocked up 2 rides on Wayward Prince then would have been in the big money...have afeeling that was my chance so may give it a swerve this year...good luck to you all Try 11th in the overall last year Alderbrook having been sixth on the start of the final day  |
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FAIR ENOUGH ..YOU WIN EASILY
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I've whittled it down to not very many horses.
Making lists tonight. Inputting them tomorrow morning. |
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Most of the way through inputting ours at the moment. Having a bit of a break...wine stop!
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Lads, don't forget that the TTF website could get conjested tomorrow so don't leave it too late!
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Entries all submitted.
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I'm halfway there.
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52 lists entered.
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All done.
Just 22 lists for me this year. I've put a couple in the mini league comp. They asked people to linit that to 2 lists. |
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Here are my lists.
The first is my Noevember entry, the second my Dreamteam and the other 20 lists are just entries. I put the first 2 lists in the Mini League. Seemed strange not putting Kauto Star in every list. League Name: Bf Cheltenham 2012 Forum Bet Number: 1 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1045 Binocular 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1206 Michel Le Bon 1212 Mon Parrain 1214 Moon Dice 1373 Tullamore Dew Bet Number: 2 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1186 Long Run 1248 Peddlers Cross 1336 Spirit Son 1373 Tullamore Dew Bet Number: 1 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1248 Peddlers Cross 1336 Spirit Son Bet Number: 2 1042 Big Buck's 1066 Captain Chris 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1117 First Lieutenant 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1203 Menorah 1212 Mon Parrain 1227 Noble Prince 1336 Spirit Son Bet Number: 3 1007 Al Ferof 1042 Big Buck's 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1117 First Lieutenant 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1270 Quito De La Roque 1320 Sizing Europe 1393 Wishfull Thinking Bet Number: 4 1042 Big Buck's 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1117 First Lieutenant 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1169 Kauto Stone 1186 Long Run 1248 Peddlers Cross 1373 Tullamore Dew 1376 Universal Soldier Bet Number: 5 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1117 First Lieutenant 1153 Hurricane Fly 1163 Joncol 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1256 Poquelin 1337 Sprinter Sacre Bet Number: 6 1006 Aiteen Thirtythree 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1052 Bobs Worth 1066 Captain Chris 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1337 Sprinter Sacre Bet Number: 7 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1163 Joncol 1186 Long Run 1206 Michel Le Bon 1337 Sprinter Sacre 1373 Tullamore Dew Bet Number: 8 1042 Big Buck's 1052 Bobs Worth 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1186 Long Run 1227 Noble Prince 1337 Sprinter Sacre 1376 Universal Soldier 1398 Zarkandar Bet Number: 9 1042 Big Buck's 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1169 Kauto Stone 1186 Long Run 1336 Spirit Son 1337 Sprinter Sacre 1376 Universal Soldier 1393 Wishfull Thinking Bet Number: 10 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1052 Bobs Worth 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1203 Menorah 1256 Poquelin 1320 Sizing Europe 1376 Universal Soldier 1398 Zarkandar Bet Number: 1 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1066 Captain Chris 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1203 Menorah 1270 Quito De La Roque 1336 Spirit Son 1373 Tullamore Dew Bet Number: 2 1042 Big Buck's 1052 Bobs Worth 1066 Captain Chris 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1203 Menorah 1212 Mon Parrain 1320 Sizing Europe 1376 Universal Soldier Bet Number: 3 1007 Al Ferof 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1052 Bobs Worth 1153 Hurricane Fly 1169 Kauto Stone 1186 Long Run 1206 Michel Le Bon 1376 Universal Soldier 1398 Zarkandar Bet Number: 4 1007 Al Ferof 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1066 Captain Chris 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1227 Noble Prince 1254 Planet Of Sound 1336 Spirit Son Bet Number: 5 1006 Aiteen Thirtythree 1042 Big Buck's 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1169 Kauto Stone 1186 Long Run 1203 Menorah 1212 Mon Parrain 1320 Sizing Europe Bet Number: 6 1007 Al Ferof 1042 Big Buck's 1052 Bobs Worth 1066 Captain Chris 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1270 Quito De La Roque 1373 Tullamore Dew 1395 Wymott Bet Number: 7 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1052 Bobs Worth 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1248 Peddlers Cross 1384 Wayward Prince 1395 Wymott Bet Number: 8 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1161 Jessies Dream 1186 Long Run 1206 Michel Le Bon 1212 Mon Parrain 1227 Noble Prince 1248 Peddlers Cross Bet Number: 9 1042 Big Buck's 1052 Bobs Worth 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1153 Hurricane Fly 1163 Joncol 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1227 Noble Prince 1248 Peddlers Cross 1398 Zarkandar Bet Number: 10 1007 Al Ferof 1042 Big Buck's 1066 Captain Chris 1116 Finian's Rainbow 1142 Grands Crus 1153 Hurricane Fly 1163 Joncol 1186 Long Run 1212 Mon Parrain 1256 Poquelin |
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Just five for me. I'd be happy to still have hope come the festival...
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Good luck everyone.
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REM, you are right.
Even if not looking good on the main leaderboard, that week is where it all changes, and the £25k monthly prize is very nice. I'd love to see someone from here win something. Good luck all.  |
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Couldn't justify much of a crack at it, so just a couple of lists for interest.
Bet Number: 1 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1248 Peddlers Cross 1270 Quito De La Roque 1320 Sizing Europe 1337 Sprinter Sacre 1393 Wishfull Thinking 1395 Wymott Bet Number: 2 1041 Beshabar 1042 Big Buck's 1044 Big Zeb 1153 Hurricane Fly 1186 Long Run 1187 Loosen My Load 1212 Mon Parrain 1270 Quito De La Roque 1337 Sprinter Sacre 1395 Wymott Best of luck, everyone! |
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16 lines done, do it on behalf of a bunch of semi-interested mates. All the picking etc is up to me, good way to get a load of lines running with less outlay, and no disagreements on horses!
My November line is a bit different - 3 each for the PP and the Henn + one each for greatwood, betfair, fighting fifth and long distance... |
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Impressed with Grand Crus, but I swerved the RSA
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REM, I only had in him 10 lines, was tempted to have him as a banker, but put Bob's Worth in 8 lines and First Lieutenant in 4.
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Don't go too big on novices as always the option to add them come the Festival.
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JOCI, I've an Arkle horse and an RSA horse in each list.
But I've avoided the novice hurdlers. |
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Peddlers Cross and Grands Crus were the novices we were biggest on, but we didn't go wild on them.
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To those of you that do quite a few perms every year, can you expand a little bit on how you select your lists from your 'master list'? I wonder how many different horses you perm into the total number of lists that you do, and whether you decide this by weighting certain horses so that some appear in more lists than others.
I ask because I love this competition but have never been in a financial position to have a real cut at it, although hopefully that will change starting from next season. I suppose to me what seems really scary is the prospect of having a master list with a winning combination but still being unlikely to hit the right perm even if you do multiple entries. What in your opinion, is the ideal cutoff point in terms of numbers of entries? |
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Tomdean.
My bankers in every list were Long Run, Hurricane Fly and Big Bucks. Then I picked 4 Arkle horses. Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Menorah. Then 2 in the RSA; Grand Crus and Bobs Worth. Then 2 in the Queen Mother, Big Zeb and Finians Rainbow. These were the main horses and are covered in all combinations (takes up 16 lists) Cue Card just missed the cut completely, and First Lieutenant waas my next choice, so I put him in 4 or 5 lists with some of the other main horses. |
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Tomdeane
Try this website for their thoughts on how to perm for the ten to follow comp. This is the last year that they are doing this on line, however there is a blank template that you could save to use for future competitions. http://petermartinconsult.supanet.com/racing/ttf/current.htm |
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I'm in ......5 lists only.Did anyone sneek Medermit in a list or 2 ? reckon that could be a decent points hauler that slips under the radar
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I didn't realise this prior to posting my entries but the prize money structure for this year's comp has changed quite significantly. By my calculations if only 58000 or so entered (as last year) then 2nd prize will be only £5100 and 10th a measly £255. Obviously there could be more (with the £250,000 guarantee,but even if there were as many as 70,000 entries (extremely unlikely) the 2nd prize would only be £13500 (70000 x £10,less 30%, less £355,000,and 10% of that).Personally, I think they will struggle to match last year's entry total as the long term trend has seen entries reduce year on year. Not sure how this would have changed my selections but I suspect I may have targetted specific months a bit more
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Good point.Reckon Fred buying the tote has effected this,listen to Talksport every morning and a Betfred rep usually comes on at 7.50am ish and they have mentioned the comp etc.
i also think Poquelin is a great price tomorrow,loves Cheltenham,claimer on.........won the Tripleprint (as i know it) last year after a run,cobwebs blown away in The Charlie Hall or am i talking rubbish,defo backing it |
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DRVEB.
Didn't put Medermit in here. My darker ones are Tullamore Dew (tomorrow) and Universal Soldier (RSA?) |
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Toyed with Tullamore but didn't bother TEN,Blimey Child !! devastating 6th to 11th..........nightmare
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rob
50000 enter £500000 30%ded=£35000-£105000=£245000. 2nd 10% would be about £24500? |
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Any Somersby's TEN? i know your lists are posted but too difficult to check ha
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Penzance, from the website I take it to mean that the winner is guaranteed £250000, if that is the case then you also need to deduct that figure as well as the £105000 from the total stakes. In your example of 50,000 entries there would be no 2nd place prize money
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Thanks for the replies guys - I had a look at that website for food for thought but to me there seem to be a few major holes in the system they use.
Very interesting how everyone differs in strategy - I've always wondered how many entries are duplicated by other players. If you have a master list of say 24 horses that you perm into a stack of entries, you are not going to get close to covering every possible combination but I suspect a lot of people will hold the same entries (the more obvious one). |
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Rob you are confused; Penzance is right.
You deduct 30% from total then minus 105k (for the monthlys etc...) Winner gets 70% of whats left (guaranteed 250k) Second place gets 10% etc..etc... |
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The 250k is guaranteed; but is essentially 70% of total bets after 30% and 105k has been deducted.
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All fairly irrelevant unless you have a top ten line!
Fingers crossed this end. |
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And there're off!!
I love the Tote 10 to Follow it makes the jumps season so much more interesting I finished 9th 2 years ago, it was such a buzz. I also had a runner in the national which would have won me 1st prize... now that was exciting!! Good luck with all your lists, and enjoy the buzz |
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20 lines this year, most I've done. 14 aimed at outright, with 'Big 3' in all then, 6 aimed at monthlies.
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I think everyone has Big Bucks/Long Run/Hurricane Fly.
But its more likely than not that one of them will fail to deliver...but which one?? I think it could be Big Bucks... 9 year olds dont have a great record in the world hurdle. Thousand stars is the interesting one. He won a Grade 1 in France over 3miles +. What does anyone else think? |
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If Thousand Stars is campaigned correctly (ie not in 2 mile races), he could collect a hat full of points in Ireland this winter imo.
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