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Ruby always rides Kauto because he knows Kauto is always the best horse in the race. People can say loyalty and all that, but simple fact is Ruby knows who's better Kauto or Denman. Denman has run his heart out and been beat many times. Kauto has only been beat when not at his best. Ruby knows this.
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I think we all know that Ruby stays on Kauto, so the question is who gets on Denman?
Are they going to go for AP or will they bring Sam back for one last try. |
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Doesnt matter as Kauto will only be running if they are sure he will beat Denman .. simple as.
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the fact is nichols prefers kauto to denman and the more i fink about it theres no chance of kauto running imo .
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Looking like he could run which means I wont be touching Denman this season. Nicholls wont be running Kauto if he thinks there is any chance of Denman beating him.
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Clive wants to run kauto in a handicap to give him the chance to post a rating like arkle. I has absolutely nothing to do with Denman or his fitness. It has to do with the owners wishes.
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Nicholls will be letting the owner know how he is likely to fare with Denman imo even if it is just to say yes we run. ffs you dont think they will run Kauto with the likelihood of his stablemate beating him. That would leave Kauto diminished greatly in standing as a staying chaser where he has already lost 3 of his last 4 runs off levels. He is not an all-time great staying chaser though he is an all-time great chaser and they wont want to make that only 1 win from 5 attempts at a 3m+ trip due to his stablemate dont worry about that. You are naive in the extreme if you believe they will run this horse if they think without jumping mistakes that any of his stablemates can beat him.
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only 1 win from his last 5 attempts at a 3m+ trip
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Haha, kirk with your stupid simplistic stat.
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I think you are completely wrong Eric. PN doesn't know what will happen in a 3m 2f race ffs. He can only summise.
And how on earth do you think it will damage KS if he is beaten? He has been beaten several times, no disgrace there. All PN will be doing is trying to ensure both horses, or even more, are fully fit and ready to run. The rest is down to many other mitigating factors completely outside his, or anyone else's control. You seem to think it is some sort of pre-arranged thing. It never is. And don't forget Newbury is a less demanding track than Cheltenham. |
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Very funny, Nicholls will know exactly where both horses are at when they go to post. If Denman is in the form of his last 2 Hennessy's then Kauto wont be running .. simple as. If Denman is below par or on the decline, which Nicholls will obviously know then he will tell Smith to run him.
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First point I am going to make is Nicholls does not own either of these horses. Neither of them were going to run in the Hennessey at the start of the season and now it looks like both are (don't think this was Nicholls' plan). The reason? The OWNERS of both Denman and Kauto want to emulate or even overtake the great Arkle's achievements in the race. By March who's to say they both might be on their way out? Or they get overtaken by one of the many good young horses coming through. I would be suprised if either of them could beat Imperial Commander come Gold Cup day. Personally I think they are trying to win what they can while they still can whether it's a King George or a Hennessey. This could be their Gold Cup! What really is wrong with that? And as for the statement of Kauto running because Denman is in decline is laughable. If he was in that much decline they would surely retire him rather than opting to run him into the ground!?
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Here he wins beating all-time great Turnip Green 5 lengths in his first Gold Cup when he can travel as he likes in a poor field -
Friday March 16 2007 Cheltenham 15:15 - Result Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (grade 1) £421141 added, 5yo plus, 3m 2f 110y, Class 1, £243841 penalty, 18 ran Going: Good to Soft, Good in places Winning Time: 6m 40.2s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Kauto Star (FR) 11-10 R Walsh P F Nicholls 7 5/4 f held up in mid-division on inside, steady headway from 17th, chased leaders on outside 3 out, quickened to lead 2 out, soon in command, clear when hit last, driven out opened 6/4 touched 6/4 £162500-£100000 (x2) £13000-£8000 £3250-£2000 (x2) £1625-£1000 £150000-£100000 £30000-£20000 (x3) £15000-£10000 £9000-£6000 £7500-£5000 (x3) £6000-£4000 (x3) £45000-£3000 (x2) £3000-£2000 (x5) £55000-£40000 £27500-£20000 £11000-£8000 (x3) £1375-£1000 (x2) £50000-£40000 £25000-£20000 £15000-£12000 £12500-£10000 £7500-£6000 £5000-£4000 (x2) £1250-£1000 (x2) £45000-£30000 (x2) £4500-£3000 (x2) 2 2½ Exotic Dancer (FR) 11-10 A P McCoy Jonjo O'Neill 7 9/2 not always fluent, held up well in rear, hit 8th, headway from 17th, not much room approaching 2 out, chased winner from 2 out, held when slightly hampered by loose horse, run- in opened 9/2 touched 5/1 £55000-£10000 £22000-£4000 £20000-£3600 £500000-£100000 £25000-£5000 £10000-£2000 (x2) £5000-£1000 (x4) £22500-£5000 Each Way £9000-£2000 3 2½ Turpin Green (IRE) 11-10 A Dobbin N G Richards 8 40/1 raced wide, held up in mid-division, steady headway from 16th, ridden to challenge and edged left approaching 2 out, soon one pace opened 40/1 touched 40/1 Here he meets the only real class horse he has met so far over a 3m+ trip and gets stuffed 7 lengths when the pace is made uncomfortable for him and tests his staying ability - Friday March 14 2008 Cheltenham 15:30 - Result Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (grade 1) £450000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 2f 110y, Class 1, £268279 penalty, 12 ran Going: Good to Soft Winning Time: 6m 47.8s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Denman (IRE) 11-10 S Thomas P F Nicholls 8 9/4 tracked leader, led 12th, hit 4 out, soon forged clear, stayed on well, ridden out opened 2/1 touched 9/4 £11250-£5000 £9000-£4000 £4500-£2000 £2250-£1000 (x2) £2125-£1000 £10000-£500 £4000-£2000 (x3) £2000-£1000 (x7) 2 7 Kauto Star (FR) 11-10 R Walsh P F Nicholls 8 10/11 f tracked leaders, not fluent 11th, 3rd when hit 13th, hit 4 out, soon ridden, went 2nd approaching 2 out, held when hit last, just held on for 2nd opened 1/1 touched 1/1 £2500-£2000 £1250-£1000 £100000-£100000 £20000-£20000 (x2) £10000-£10000 (x2) £6000-£6000 £5000-£5000 (x7) £3000-£3000 (x2) £2000-£2000 (x12) £1200-£1200 £1000-£1000 (x14) £1000-£1100 Here he is beaten by all time great Our Vic - Thursday April 3 2008 Aintree 14:35 - Result Totesport Bowl Chase (grade 2) £160000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 1f, Class 1, £91216 penalty, 5 ran Going: Good to Soft (Good in places, Mildway & Hurdles Good) Winning Time: 6m 25.8s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Our Vic (IRE) 11-10 T J Murphy D Pipe 10 9/1 led, headed 3 out, soon ridden, hard ridden approaching last, led last stride opened 9/1 touched 10/1 £10000-£1000 2 nse Kauto Star (FR) 11-10 R Walsh P F Nicholls 8 4/7 f chased winner, hit 7th, joined winner 10th, not fluent 12th, challenged 4 out, led next, drawing clear when blundered 2 out, caught post opened 4/6 touched 4/6 £6000-£9000 £4000-£6000 (x3) £2000-£3000 (x3) £1000-£15002 £800-£1200 (x4) £400-£600 (x2) £40000-£65000 £1200-£1650 £800-£1300 (x2) £600-£975 £1200-£2100 £400-£700 Here he wins the Gold Cup from an under par Denman ridden against his strengths allowing Kauto to travel within himself - Friday March 13 2009 Cheltenham 15:20 - Result Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup £475000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 2f 110y, Class 1, £270798 penalty, 16 ran Going: Good to Soft, Good in places Watch Full Race» Watch Closing Stages» Winning Time: 6m 44.95s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Kauto Star (FR) 11-10 R Walsh P F Nicholls 9 7/4 f tracked leaders, led after 3 out, soon clear, powered home, ridden out opened 13/8 touched 15/8 £2000-£1000 (x4) £15000-£8000 £7500-£4000 (x3) £3750-£2000 (x2) £1875-£1000 (x6) £938-£500 (x5) £7000-£4000 (x4) £3500-£2000 (x3) £1750-£1000 (x4) £3250-£2000 (x3) £1625-£1000 (x3) 2 13 Denman (IRE) 11-10 S Thomas P F Nicholls 9 7/1 chased leaders, disputed 2nd 13th, ridden to chase winner after 3 out, stayed on, soon held opened 13/2 touched 15/2 £10000-£1200 (x2) £15000-£2000 £7000-£1000 (x2) Here he doesnt like jumping out of the ground, blunders on this undulating track gets reminders afterwards then falls - Friday March 19 2010 Cheltenham 15:20 - Result Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (grade 1) £475000 added, 5yo plus, 3m 2f 110y, Class 1, £270798 penalty, 11 ran Going: Good, Good to Soft in places Race Report » Watch Full Race» Watch Closing Stages» Winning Time: 6m 43.8s Pos. Draw Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP 1 Imperial Commander (IRE) 11-10 P J Brennan N A Twiston-Davies 9 7/1 tracked leaders, went 2nd 4 out, challenged next, driven to lead before 2 out, ridden and stayed on well flat opened 8/1 touched 8/1 £40000-£4800 £16000-£2000 £7500-£1000 Each Way 2 7 Denman (IRE) 11-10 A P McCoy P F Nicholls 10 4/1 tracked leader, disputed lead 11th, went on 5 out, hard pressed 3 out, ridden and headed before 2 out, edged right and no extra under pressure flat opened 4/1 touched 9/2 £7500-£1500 £5000-£1000 £9000-£2000 Each Way (x2) £9000-£2000 £4500-£1000 £4000-£1000 (x2) F Kauto Star (FR) 11-10 R Walsh P F Nicholls 10 8/11 f tracked leaders on inside, blundered and lost place 8th, remained in touch, reminder 15th, disputing close up 4th when fell 4 out opened 4/5 touched 4/5 £833-£1000 £16000-£20000 £8000-£10000 (x3) £4800-£6000 £4400-£5500 £4000-£5000 (x12) £2400-£3000 £2000-£2500 (x6) £1600-£2000 (x2) £1000-£1250 (x2) £800-£1000 (x8) £8727-£12000 £8000-£11000 (x2) £4000-£5500 (x2) £1600-£2200 (x6) He has lost 3 of his last 4 runs over a 3m+ staying trip. At up to 3m he is the best horse I have seen. Will it be only 1 win from 5 after the Hennessy? Not exactly Arkle as a staying chaser is he? |
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Well said MM. About as accurate a description as you could get.
I do slightly disagree with the 'emulate or even overtake' but that is being picky. Neither would overtake Himself but I do understand they would want to raise their individual charges to the highest possible standing and the Hennessy is definitely the place to go. I have being saying that for, what seems, ages. |
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not the horse but Arkle's race achievements in the Hennessey.^
3 Hennesseys Winning off 190 |
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Believe me Denman will be under par if Kauto runs.
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Good points, Brigust. I just wonder though whether your last comment about Newbury being a less demanding track than Cheltenham is necessarily true. I am never quite sure how to compare the two. For sure, you have the stiffness of the track at Cheltenham in terms of the undulations, but against that perhaps is the point that it is a bit sharper or not as 'galloping' a track as Newbury. Both can be described as 'galloping' tracks, but that is more obviously the case with Newbury.
I would have thought that what really saps the strength at Newbury in a very competitive handicap, often run on pretty soft ground, are those long straight sections where strong gallopers can really build up speed and put pressure on less robust or more heavily weighted opponents over significant distances. The turns and uphill sections at Cheltenham slow the horses and break up the gallop a bit more than is likely the case at a flatter track with very long straight sections, like Newbury. Also, horses can get a bit more of a breath in on the downhill sections at Cheltenham; the gallop can be a bit more relentless at Newbury in good company. The fences at both tracks are stiff enough. It would be interesting to see how Kauto would cope at Newbury. For sure, on a going day he has the speed and fluency to travel well off a strong gallop. The bigger test will be how long he can sustain the effort on what is so unrelentingly a galloping track. If it comes about, it would certainly be a race that could answer quite a few of the questions we have been debating on here over the years about Kauto Star and Denman, particularly questions about to what extent Kauto is really at home away from the speedier tracks, such as Kempton. It would also be an interesting test of how well Kauto copes under pressure. This point can be well over done, but there have been times when Kauto has looked like a horse that is much better when he is able to race within himself rather than being put under pressure through the effort and tactics of others. In the Hennessy there is a fair chance he will have to travel within the midst of a lot of hustle and bustle (and pressure) for longer and further than has been the case in many of his previous races. And then he may still have to dig very deep to remain competitive through that long finishing section of the race, where he is very likely going to have to fight off or run down some pretty strong opposition for quite a way. I don't have a fixed view about whether Kauto could win the Hennessy, but I certainly wouldn't be underestimating the achievement if he did prove up to it. It can be a brutally tough race, even for the very classy ones. |
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Excellent summary aka
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CVB, I know I am a simple soul but you have me confused. You have completely contradicted yourself within the space of 3 hours.
Today 08.47 post - 'Ruby would certainly ride Denman' Today 11.48 post - 'We all know Ruby will ride Kauto. He would never, ever get of his back' Which is it please? |
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Yes, good summary aka. I know it is difficult to directly compare he two courses but I remember both One Man and Teeton Mill winning easily at Newbury but not being able to cope with Cheltenham. Not good examples I know but I do think classy, speed horses can be held together and not need to grind up the straight at Newbury the way Cheltenham can expose them.
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The race also wont help Kauto for speed (win or lose he will have a very tough staying race conceding weight on softish ground) or confidence (if he loses) with the King George coming up so soon afterwards. Would think rather than winding him up for the King George as normal Nicholls would have to leave him alone for a while after a Hennessy to allow him time to recover giving him a shorter home prep for the King George than previously.
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You're joking he will need to grind a long way out in the Hennessy to get back on terms conceding weight if he makes the slightest jumping mistake in a Hennessy. Making up ground is harder when conceding weight than off levels.
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If the pace is strong and he makes a jumping error half way through the race which is not uncommon for him does Ruby push and shove to keep him up there for the next 1m6f or does he bide his time and try and come through them late? The horse doesnt not go as well when he has to come under pressure a long way out. If Ruby keeps at him after a mistake then he will have a very hard race for a long time conceding the weight. If he doesnt touch a twig fine.
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Eric it is not rocket science 'if' it is a strong pace and 'if' KS makes mistakes ffs. What 'if' Denman falls again? You cannot write all possible scenarios into the script.
What I am saying is if KS runs then PN thinks he is fit and well and the going is not too soft. Under those circumstances he should be able to use his better speed because Newbury doesn't have an uphill finish and Denman is going to have to be bang on his game and bang on with his jumping which is not guaranteed either. |
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What I am saying is Kauto regularly makes jumping mistakes especially if the pace is on and imo he jumps lower on softer ground increasing his chances of a mistake. He will get both of these conditions in a Hennessy. Also it is much harder to make up lost ground after a mistake when conceding a lot of weight. Either way if he makes a mistake and comes under pressure well out they can kiss goodbye to any races for a couple of months.
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i know some people will always say denman is a better horse than kauto and vis versa i also know people will say its all about opinions
well im sorry thats not true.if you want to see who is the better horse look back thru the record books and see who won what.when youve done that it will be bleeding obvious |
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Over what trip?
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Bit irrelevant for the future anyway as at least one of these is past their best now.
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over any trip 2m-3m 2f can u also please explain how a horse thats won 2 tingle creeks can struggle to jump off a 3m pace
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Yes I already did above.
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no u didnt you just like knocking the best chaser of a generation.been here before eric but just think what superstars nijinsky,dancing brave and see the stars would have been if only they could have won an ebor
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2rivets this stupid Ebor point came up before. There is no comparison between the Ebor and the Hennessy in their standing relevent to their discipline. Perhaps you think Workforce would struggle giving 2 stone to Dirar? Give it a rest will you?
Several horses have won the Hennessy and the Gold Cup or Grand National where no horse has won the Ebor and Derby. Lets have a sensible debate. |
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my opinion is that a handicap is a handicap whatever the sponsers name.
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Kauto has fallen or UR 4 times, 1 out of every 6 of his 24 races.
He has blundered away his chances in a couple more. That makes 6 races lost out of 24 due to jumping errors or in other words jumping mistakes have cost him any chance in 1 in 4 races. He has also hit fences in 5 races he has won (below). He has therefore hit fences in 11 of his 24 races that is every other race Kauto hits a fence(s) resulting in costing him his chance in 1 in 4 of these. However he does not normally concede weight so whether this would have had an effect on these stats if he had struggled against handicappers giving loads of weight we will never know if that stat would be better/worse. Even races he won including both Tingle Creeks you mention he hit fences, the Queen Mother of course he fell: - tracked leading pair, went 2nd 6th, led 4 out, in command 2 out, 4 lengths clear when hit last, idled and driven out run-in - tracked leaders in 4th, headway 6th, left in narrow lead 8th, soon headed and tracked leader, led 3 out, hit 2 out, soon in command, shaken up and drew right away flat King George: - held up in touch, steady headway from 11th, went 2nd 12th, blundered 4 out, disputing lead well before 3 out, definite advantage 3 out, quickened well clear when hit last, impressive - held up behind leaders, tracked leader going well 14th, led well before 3 out, drew well clear from next, well in command when went left and hit last, easily Gold Cup: - held up in mid-division on inside, steady headway from 17th, chased leaders on outside 3 out, quickened to lead 2 out, soon in command, clear when hit last, driven out |
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This has to be one of the funniest posts I have ever seen on here ... LOLOL
2rivets Joined: 22 Mar 08 Replies: 41 05 Nov 10 19:50 no u didnt you just like knocking the best chaser of a generation.been here before eric but just think what superstars nijinsky,dancing brave and see the stars would have been if only they could have won an ebor |
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Interestingly the 5 races he won when hitting fences it was the 2nd last or last fence in each case in other words he already had the race virtually won when hitting them.
If he hits them any earlier he is in big trouble, if he hits them late he normally prevails. As I say you dont want to see him hit a fence part way through the Hennessy as even off levels he doesnt recover. Giving weight away will be WAY tougher to recover. |
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Eric we all know the blindingly obvious. What happens if the ground is good? What happens if Denman falls? He has fallen at Newbury before. You cannot know what happens until it has happened.
So let us say everything goes fine, no desperate ground, no mistakes what then. That is what gambling is all about. If you think he will come unstuck then lay him. I'm quite happy to back him, thank you. |
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Shoot I might have just given away an in-running goldmine on a short-priced favourite here ... LOL.
eric_morris Joined: 27 Jun 10 Replies: 480 05 Nov 10 20:33 Interestingly the 5 races he won when hitting fences it was the 2nd last or last fence in each case in other words he already had the race virtually won when hitting them. If he hits them any earlier he is in big trouble, if he hits them late he normally prevails. As I say you dont want to see him hit a fence part way through the Hennessy as even off levels he doesnt recover. Giving weight away will be WAY tougher to recover. |
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.. and there is a 50% chance he will hit one and a massive chance he wont prevail if it is earlier than the 2nd last. Conceding weight there is even less chance he would prevail.
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LOL .. looking like a trade lads you dont want to be holding on to that bet you are just looking for a run from Kauto after backing him at 8s and locking in a profit.
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