Horse Antepost
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TTF! RACING POST GUIDE TO THE JUMPS inc TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2010/11 books
TTF! RACING POST GUIDE TO THE JUMPS inc TEN TO FOLLOW JUMPS 2010/11 books
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Yes - but not gone overboard, as in the main comp you have the opportunity to select a couple of bonus horses for the Cheltenham Festival, and I tend to reserve these slots for top novices. Looks a nice prospect, but there are plenty of them about at the moment e.g. Wayward Prince, Time For Rupert, Mikael D'Haguenet, Fiveforthree etc. Just don't know how the pecking order is going to work out at this stage.
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yeah the RSA has at least 5 or 6 potential winners looking at the market right now. Think it is more competitve than the arkle as there are some horses in that race that are just hard to fancy imo.
I went for TM simply because he's been out already and should be running again soon. Rupert I backed last year and was my other fancy |
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My gut instinct is to avoid the novice chasers. I did so last year and mised the boat on Sizing Europe and Punchestowns. It all depends if one can knock up a sequence before the festival, but the RSA does look hot. Time For Rupert intrests me, but they don't seem to be looking for an easy start. Then there are always a few horses that were given an easy time in hurdles that go under the radar. Might just sit it out and grab one come subs (by which time I need more than two replacements.
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Must thank PN Nicholls for simplifying the HenGC. Hopefully I can crack the PP with a small perm and I might burn a flame of hope until Christmas...
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More big race entries on RP site now. FightingF, KG, Hattons Grace.
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I've 2 days off now.
Whittled down to 100 or so horses last week. Working on lists (about 50) all day. Up early to input them tomorrow. Watching Cheltenham afternoon. Perfect. |
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Only today off for me. 50 lists too!
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I'm around the 25 horse mark. Will play around with a few perms as I can never boil it down to 10, but 50 lists is too extravagant.
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14 'in competition' horses to chose from in the Paddt Power out of the 20 entrants. Was hoping it would be fewer than that. Cover the entire field or not?
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Make that 13 instead.
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JOCI
No IMO. Okay you're guarranteed to get the winner but it's pot luck as to the make up of other horses in your list that does contain the winner. It's only one bonus race after all. Perm the first 4 in the betting. That way if one of them wins you've got them in several lists. If none of them win, it means an 'outsider' has won, hopefully meaning it's in very few of the competition lists and will be forgotten about come the bussiness end of the competition in March / April. |
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If I include one of the outsiders, I would put it in what I consider to be one of my strongest lists. However, in order of preference I'm keenest on Long Run, Great Endeavour, Mad Max, Poquelin, Catch Me & Sunnyhillboy.
My real focus has been on the front three in that list. |
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1036 Big Buck's 1038 Big Zeb 1039 Binocular 1080 Cue Card 1146 Great Endeavour
1157 Hurricane Fly 1180 Kauto Star 1195 Long Run 1264 Pandorama 1390 What A Friend Bet Number: 2 1036 Big Buck's 1039 Binocular 1048 Burton Port 1080 Cue Card 1180 Kauto Star 1195 Long Run 1199 Mad Max 1211 Master Minded 1267 Peddlers Cross 1390 What A Friend Bet Number: 3 1036 Big Buck's 1052 Captain Cee Bee 1057 Carruthers 1059 Catch Me 1080 Cue Card 1146 Great Endeavour 1157 Hurricane Fly 1180 Kauto Star 1267 Peddlers Cross 1390 What A Friend Bet Number: 4 1006 Al Ferof 1036 Big Buck's 1038 Big Zeb 1039 Binocular 1074 Cooldine 1091 Diamond Harry 1146 Great Endeavour 1180 Kauto Star 1199 Mad Max 1332 Solwhit Bet Number: 5 1036 Big Buck's 1038 Big Zeb 1090 Denman 1157 Hurricane Fly 1180 Kauto Star 1195 Long Run 1239 Neptune Collonges 1310 Royal Charm 1342 Sunnyhillboy 1359 Tell Massini Bet Number: 6 1036 Big Buck's 1037 Big Fella Thanks 1038 Big Zeb 1039 Binocular 1080 Cue Card 1161 Imperial Commander 1180 Kauto Star 1195 Long Run 1364 The Midnight Club 1396 Wymott Bet Number: 7 1034 Berties Dream 1036 Big Buck's 1039 Binocular 1080 Cue Card 1172 Joncol 1180 Kauto Star 1195 Long Run 1211 Master Minded 1264 Pandorama 1276 Poquelin Bet Number: 8 1036 Big Buck's 1039 Binocular 1059 Catch Me 1080 Cue Card 1144 Golden Silver 1180 Kauto Star 1237 Nacarat 1264 Pandorama 1336 Spirit River 1348 Taranis Bet Number: 9 1036 Big Buck's 1039 Binocular 1080 Cue Card 1146 Great Endeavour 1180 Kauto Star 1184 Khyber Kim 1264 Pandorama 1274 Planet Of Sound 1353 Tataniano 1365 The Minack Bet Number: 10 1036 Big Buck's 1039 Binocular 1080 Cue Card 1180 Kauto Star 1195 Long Run 1211 Master Minded 1284 Punchestowns 1374 Time For Rupert 1383 Voler La Vedette 1389 Weird Al Good Luck Guys  |
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If the PP winner does an Exotic Dancer then it becomes a make or break horse. Many PP winners end up not amongst the top ten point scores. At some point you have to gamble.
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Think I've just about finished the lists - just been looking at all my Paddy Power / Hennessy combinations and fine tuning that to get as much coverage as possible. It's complicated by not knowing whether Kauto Star is going to run in it or not.
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Loosen my load is not on the list but is entered for the novice chase at Cheltenham on Sunday. Am I missing something?
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Mr Mischief 11 Nov 10 16:45
Loosen my load is not on the list but is entered for the novice chase at Cheltenham on Sunday. Am I missing something? No. But the book compilers did.  |
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Startling omission. HdeB has big opinion of this one and horse has plenty of quality form to back it up. More likely to run against Noble Prince @ Punch on Sunday
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Anyone know when the Feb transfer window opens??
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Found it 20/02
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But transfers only become effective from the 1st day of the Cheltenham Festival.
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I'd like to talk strategy here.
I have always been of the opinion that the Ten To Follow offers exceptional value because, much like Placepots and Jackpots, an awful lot of entries in the pool will have no chance of winning because people don't always compile them with logic. However, to my mind - again like the Placepot and Jackpot - the way to strike it rich is by taking a big gamble and including at least one unpopular horse. If this unpopular one progresses and bags a few big prizes and your bankers also hit the back of the net, you will have that all-important big points tally but will be different enough from the competition to plausibly win a prize. I am interested to know if this is the way other people play it, because from what I can see, many of you enter a considerable number of perms but don't take an obvious flyer by including a real dark horse. Seems to me if you can afford to put 50 lists together, you could certainly resign yourself to 10 or so being let down by an unlikely pick in the hope that it surprises. I have always wondered how many entries are analogues - surely the more popular horses are so popular that a number of entrants actually have identical lists? Obviously if they were the highest points scorers you would still win, but the payout would be shared, and, as we all know, there are always one or two big surprises in the competition. Just feel one wildcard could make the difference, especially for a monthly prize. |
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Just submitted my one and only list.It is Arvika Legeonniere,Big Bucks,Binocular,Cooldine,Great Endeavour,Hurricane Fly,Long Run,Mikael D'Haguenet,Pandorama and What A Friend.Main aim is to see my name in paper again and anything else would be a bonus.Best of luck to all whether you be a 50 list man or a 1 list man like me.
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REM,interested that you say that the PP winner doesnt end up in the top 10 scoring horses.I had this debate last year when most ppl were saying if you didnt have Tranquil Sea in your list you cant win.I forgot to and still havent checked to see if lasts years winner had it in.Funny thing is,I didnt put it in and i didnt win so maybe they are right.lol.
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first time entering this, 1 list:
- Binocular - Long Run - Master Minded - Mikael D'Haguenet - Noble Prince - Peddlers Cross - Solwhit - Sunnyhill Boy - Tchico Polos - What A Friend |
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new kid - arvika is injured - wont be out till after xmas
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tomdeane - In answer to your question I would point to the fact that last year Albertas Run was the top scorer on 130 points, and only appeared in one of top ten lists (as a sub, scoring 98!). Personally I'm inclined to say there are no big prizes for being original, and it is hard enough to just get the 8 or 9 horses on at very least 50 points. I would say this is the key to the competition, and therefore the skill is in working out which big names to omit rather than "dark horses" to include. Monthly prizes on the other hand I think are a different case.
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Interesting points Waterwheel.
I suppose much this year will come down to whether Long Run wins the PP and what Nicholls does with Kauto. They are two key horses I feel. If Long Run jumps well he could bolt up on Saturday and the world would once again be his oyster, but he could just as well disappoint and then things look a whole lot less rosy. Kauto of course could run an admirable second or third if they run in the Hennessy, blow his KG freshness and fail to score any points. He could of course just as easily win the Hennessy and KG and anyone leaving out the best horse we've seen in years would look mighty stupid! A lot of thinking still left for me... |
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I agree they're two of the most significant. Personally I can't see Kauto running in the Hennessy, I can't see him giving weight to Denman if he does, and I think he needs longer between races to support in the King George if he does go to Newbury. Even if he wins the King George, I wouldn't expect to see him out again, and still can't see him winning another Gold Cup. At 50pts I could afford not to have him, so I'll risk looking stupid.
The other interesting factor of course, would be if Great Endeavour could pull a Paddy Power / Hennessy double. |
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I thought I'd read something today which suggested Great Endeavour wasn't going for the Hennessy.
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All my entries now input ! Phew!
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Tactically if i could afford to do 40-50 lists then i would submit a couple of double entries; if one of these lists scored well than having two sets of bonus horses would be invaluable.
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Not bad thinking [;)]
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I've got my lists ready.
Up at 7.15am to input them. |
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Ah, good to know. Thanks, Joci.
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TEN2FOLLOWER Joined: 12 Sep 05
Replies: 2579 11 Nov 10 22:17 I've got my lists ready. Up at 7.15am to input them. Website failure would be your biggest enemy TTF ! |
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1036 Big Buck's
1080 Cue Card 1091 Diamond Harry 1195 Long Run 1243 Noble Prince 1264 Pandorama 1267 Peddlers Cross 1274 Planet Of Sound 1310 Royal Charm 1399 Zaynar gl |
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Still a lot of unconfirmed reports regarding Arvika Legionniere.
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JOCI Club 11 Nov 10 22:25
TEN2FOLLOWER Joined: 12 Sep 05 Replies: 2579 11 Nov 10 22:17 I've got my lists ready. Up at 7.15am to input them. Website failure would be your biggest enemy TTF ! I like to live on the edge!  |
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Spoke too soon.
Website went down after 17 lists input. |