Hoping he goes Racing Post Trophy after the Royal Lodge. Best 2yo English Derby trial by a street.

eric_morris:- I hope they don't go for both, could be a mistake, there's nothing to gain in going for both (apart from the obvious prize money).

That's the race I'd go for, leave out the Lodge...

Graeme, you dont know why that is the reason for him being trimmed. 2+2 doesn't always equal 4.

ridiculous price btw.

seems hard to believe we have the power to shift markets but an interesting thought! i notice that mordin doesnt seem to like his chances of staying given he's quite "muscular" anyone else have an opinion on this?

I know mordin doesnt always have a high reputation here (his recent observation that zoffany only had to turn up to win the big end of year two year old races, seemed particularly ridiculous) he does at least try to look at the game in a deep way, which is more than you can say about most gamblers.

I certainly think that it would be daft not to send frankel the guineas route.

Has anyone backed him for the double? If so, what prices were you quoted?

liberator, thanks for the warning, but I've no doubt that the course drains a lot better than it used to do before the irrigation and drainage works were completed in 2007.

i think he is full of speed but just looking at the horse screams derby to me

don't forget St Nicholas Abbey

I havent backed him Guineas as I think there will be good competition with much better form on display at the moment with the Godolphin horse beating other Group horses in a canter. Strong Suit has shown better speed than anything for me this season before his below par run last time out. Hannon has said he thinks he undercooked him for that and that he is back to the form before the Coventry. Like Canford in the Morny think we can forgive him one run where he was not ridden to his strengths. Already the Guineas is looking a hot race with lots of v good Group form on show. Frankels form doesnt compare at these trips. He impressed against Nathaniel but his speed was staged and he wound up the gears gradually. It wasnt the electric burst of a Guineas winner for me.

The gradual gears though are what I look for in a middle distance horse. Travel then wind it up and kick which says Derby to me.

agree with Figgis and Howellsy re time. Frankel best 2yo of the season so far.

Agree also with the comments about horses appearing to win easily, yet not finding that much more on next start when let down under pressure.

But other cases where horses have won easily eg St Nicholas Abbey, they did actually exert themselves to clock their fast times, despite appearing to win on the bridle. Athletes who break world records also appear to do so easily on many occasions, yet there is never any doubt that it is hard work.

But no way was Frankel at full pelt, as some as Mordin have suggested. This horse clearly got plenty more to come.

Eric, me and you must be watching a different horse as he doesn't have gradual gear changes. Tom kept making him find a bit extra on his debut to win that day, and at Doncaster, rubbish race that it may have been, he quickened in smart style and went clear of a good but mainly exposed rival.

And, I think you'll find he shortened for the Guineas was because a horse that finished way behind him won again.

The Derby is still a red herring for me, just look at his Sadler's Well's half-brother Bullet train. He robbed a slowly run trial at Lingfield in which a few behind haven't been asked to go that trip again, while he has been thrashed on the three times he's run over 1m4f. Why he's being punted out for a Derby is beyond me when everything suggests he'll never stay.

Celtic Son

Its unwise to draw too many conclusions from one sibling. Bullet Train is a different horse to Frankel.

I used to make the same mistake myself to my cost. I learned over expensive time to evaluate a horse's stamina capability from more than the running of one sibling. Generally a horse will stay in accordance with its pedigree. Frankel is bred to stay 12 furlongs. He will probably stay that far.

It would be unusual for a 2yo that has won over a mile on soft grounf on its first appearance to find further than a mile the limit of its stamina at 3.

Not sure why they aren't looking at the Dewhurst for Strong Suit as he definitely has Group class speed for a Guineas. They may have made a mistake keeping Champion miler Canford Cliffs at 6f for the Morny as a 2yo. With a 7f outing he may have adapted to a mile quicker and the jockey would have learned how to have ridden him over a none sprint trip with the Guineas in mind. Can't help but think his 2 yo prep led to them riding him cautiously in the Guineas when with a ride knowing he would get the trip he may have won.  Surely this won't happen with Strong Suit also?

"We think Strong Suit is a Group 1 horse, so we will stick to the top level and keep him back for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. He has been working exceptionally well on the grass and hopefully he'll erase the memory of Ireland at HQ.

First big test for Frankel this weekend. Fingers crossed he will pass with flying colours. However I think the prices mentioned for the guineas next year is too short for what he has done so far.

Another thing that does concern me is that he is a Feb foal and therefore may not improve as much from 2 to 3. Is that a concern for anyone else?

28 years here and rarely get this vibe from HRAC.
We all know backing a horse for Guinea and Derby leads to the poorhouse
long term and you are best making your choice which.
This is a rare occasion I will go for both Derby early, Guineas late. He has come on for his last run so
let's hope he is the real deal

re Bullet Train .. small point but Ballydoyle's runner in that race,Captain James Cook, sadly broke when travelling nicely coming into the home straight .. would have given the winner a race for sure imo.

Hi celtic-Son

Bullet Train has never shown the same promise as Frankel, who appears blessed with a really decent amount of natural speed. Of course Kind was a 7 furlong filly, but her breeding is quite stout enough to mean that she will get 12 furlongs okay.

I am far from convinced that Bullet Train, as a first foal, will be a guide to all future offspring of the dam. if you look at dams of winners, you see quite wide variation, with some stoutly bred horses not staying and others by speed horses staying very well.

Bullet Train has been disappointing, and there is no more than a suggestion that he might be better at 10 than 12 furlongs. If you look at his form, there is another theory that holds just as much water - he is just disappointing, not progressive and now not all that good. Stallions definitely go past it. Saddlers Wells is pretty much at the end of his great career and Bullet Train was one of last colts to show much at all. The first foals of dams are often not as decent as those that follow. Frankel, being a second foal, and by a pretty new sire, who seems to impart speed and stamina and class, is an entirely different kettle of fish to Bullet Train.

As i say Frankel's first run was a serious stamina test and winning over a mile on very soft going in the summer as a 2yo must make it highly unlikely that he will find any problem with at least 10 furlongs at 3 years old. Overall his pedigree on both sides makes his natural trip look like 12 furlomngs and generally, but not always, if they are bred to stay they do stay - and Frankel is bred to stay.

That's not to say he might not win the Guineas, but the Derby looks a bit more likely. As a backer of Frankel to do the double at 50/1 and the triple Crown at 100/1 I am not going to be sorry if he did win the Guineas that's for sure.

I'm afraid we won't agree on this. Frankel won't stay a properly run 1m4f race, no chance. Kind herself was by Danehill, and her career suggest she took after her sire much more than her dam.

Any high st firms offering price on Frankel doing Guineas/Derby double? Can't seem to find any quotes. You did well to snap up those odds cryoftruth.