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what a horse
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will stay 1m 4 no problem u seen his stride beautiful mover
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A 3 horse egg and spoon race.
I would wait till she takes in the Observer Gold Cup or whatever they call it these days. |
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What on earth has his stride got to do with him staying? He effectively won a 5-6f sprint today. Little doubt he'll stay 1m 2f in time, but why on earth would you want him running over 1m4f round a track where if he pulls hard he'll never get home.
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a long stride has alot to do with staying . means the horse is relaxing and moving within himself and breathing perfect . thats dancing braves trainers theory anyway.
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this horse has the x factor.
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That is absolute bollox.
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cecil did express some doubts about him staying tbf.
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Cecil said: "It was a shame the other horse was withdrawn as we would have learnt more but he's definitely progressing.
"He's in the Racing Post Trophy and the Royal Lodge and we will just see how he is. It's unlikely we'll supplement him for the Dewhurst." |
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well thats the theory. horse is a middle diatance horse next year imo . total superstar mark my words
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cecil knew he was very special yopu could tell in the interview
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Hope so would love to see Cecil have another great colt it's been a long time since his last. Early days yet though.
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That's interesting, mythical, because I had him down as a 10-12f horse for next year. But the maestro knows best, so I'm happy to be corrected. The pedigree is packed with stamina, but the dam herself (despite being from a staying family) didn't win beyond 7f, so perhaps the dam's speed is predominating over the stamina influences in the pedigree (despite the fact that the dam has also produced the Lingfield Derby Trial winner Bullet Train). A very exciting prospect, whatever his optimum trip turns out to be.
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didnt catch henry saying he had doubts but im very confident hell stay 1m 4f.
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Did not get anything in that interview to question Frankel's stamina. What I did get was the fact Henry thinks he's exceptional. I was frantically trying to load up more AP for next year's classics as he powered away in final furlong. The Godolphin horse wouldn't have got near him. It was almost like a Zafonic moment regardless of it being ordinary 3-horse race. Just annoyed I wasn't quick enough to get the 33s for Guineas. Talk of possibly being supplemented for Dewhurst and given his pedigree... I think he could do Guineas/Derby double.
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Frankel entries -
ENTERED RACE ENTERED FOR THE FOLLOWING RACES 25Sep10 2:30 (Early closer) at Ascot, Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) 16Oct10 2:25 (Early closer) at Newmarket, Jumeirah Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) 23Oct10 1:50 (Early closer) at Doncaster, Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) 04Jun11 3:45 (Early closer) at Epsom, Investec Derby (Group 1) I'm not sure what's being missed here with regards to his entries? |
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Doubt he'll go Guineas. Waiting for the Derby paid off for connections with Workforce.
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This thread gets more and more bizarre. What has a Michael Stoute trained horse got to do with him? Workforce won just a maiden at two and wasn't seen after. Frankel will run in a Group race this season unless getting injured, so has nothing in common with Workforce.
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Frankel is a bull of a horse and may not act on Epsom. I would start him off in the Guineas then the French Derby. After that would come the Eclipse or Irish derby, then the Juddemont at York, a race the owner would love to win. Finally, the greatest race of all:the Arc. All roads lead to the Arc. A race Cecil should focus on as he has never won it. The arc is the jewel that Cecil needs to be crowned "Sir".
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Ha ha you can say he won't act at Epsom. Lmao. It is more likely based on the slow ground he has run on that he would flatter to deceive as a miler as with St Nicholas Abbey who couldn't find the toe on the really quick Newmarket ground in May. This horse will be taken care of by HRAC with stated targets the Racing Post Trophy, the clear Derby prep race on ground that won't jar him up and Royal Lodge on the agenda. The former is the obvious choice as he loves Donny and would have a perfect 2 yo campaign under his belt with little taken out of him. This horse impresses me as much as Motivator as a 2 yo looking a similar type.
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Gte the feeling this thread is going down hill tone wise.
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It is now you are here.
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:)
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i think people are overanalysing it at this point if they don't think he should be aimed at epsom.
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its bound to generate a lot of disagreements when a horse wins a 3 horse race by a long way.
Lets look at the facts. Frankel has run twice, the first race the going was soft and the second race officially good but the time would seem to indicate that it was just on the fast side of good. The first race he won pretty easily from a decent enough maiden - his rider certainly looked after him. The second race he beat a 90 rated horse by 17 lengths or about 42lbs. He did so in what was the fastest time of the day and did so very very easily - his rider hardly moved a muscle. How much more he had in hand is hard to say, but conservatively he could have won by another 4 lengths. He is very similarly bred to his half brother Bullet Train, who was a slower later developer. Bullet Train looked for all the world like a stayer, but has become a bit disappointing with speculation that he might be best at 10 furlongs. Frankel's dam, Kind was a sprinter, but she has loads of stamina in her pedigree and many of her siblings stayed very well indeed. The sire, Galileo has already sired Derby winners and looking at Frankel's initial win over a mile on soft ground it would be a major surprise to me if he did not need 10 furlongs at least at 3 and will probably stay 12. In terms of his ability to win a classic, he seems to be blessed with pace. To win so easily on good going over 7 furlongs suggests he would not find a mile necessarily too sharp next May if they decide to have a go at the guineas. I note the stuff about him pulling hard. I have no worries about that. he was not pulling for his head like a maniac, he was just keen to get on with things. Hi so called hard pulling, was no more in my view that settling going very well. Sea The Stars pulled a lot harder in the Arc for example. How good is he? Well the literal form from Doncaster would make him about 138 which is clearly crazy. The Racing Post gave him 113, but had to downgrade Diamond Geezer's rating from 90 to only 69 a drop of 21 lbs. My guess looking at the style of victory and the time of the race is that Frankel is already capable of running around 124 over 7 furlongs and he looks a certain massive improver. In my view he is a decent price at anything over 12 for the Derby and a similar price for the 2000 Guineas. he is the most exciting 2yo seen out so far this season and as henry said himself , he could be very special. |
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mind you i think there is a increasing tendency to bestow greatness on horses prematurely these days.
well that trend has probably always existed but it's certainly increased since sea the stars last year, every horse that win's impressively is the next sts, the next superstar. workforce this year in the derby. harbinger, admitedly brilliant in the king george, breathtaking in fact, was considered one of the best horses ever after that ONE display, which to my mind is simply ridiculous. you couldnt compare him to great champions of the past that proved it over many races on one run... so it begins again with frankel; he's a great big bull of a horse but would he be vulnerable over a mile to something with a sharp turn of foot? he kind of reminds me of celtic swing, so impressive with this huge great stride, but could history repeat itself with a pennekamp style horse doing him for toe in the guineas? [;)] just a word of caution though, cus i do really like this horse and really hope he becomes a superstar, just that he's not there yet. |
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agree with every word of that mythical.
wont stop me backing him for the double though, or dare I say it the triple crown! |
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well saamid would fit into the category of being a pure miler, looks every bit as classy as frankel...
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Saamidd beating Group horses in a canter there now a big challenger for the Guineas with fellow Groupees Strong Suit. Zoffany and Pathfork to come lots of Guineas pointers today. 8s Saamidd now the Guineas and bound for the Dewhurst.
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saamid ran the last couple of furlongs slower than frankel did according to my (very rough timings) but you'd have to take into account the fact that frankel's race was run at an absolute crawl. maybe figgis on the case?
as i said saamid appeals more as the pure miler, whilst frankel is a completely different stamp of a horse. personally i'd like to see frankel go for the dewhurst, as you'd have a much clearer idea of his guineas prospects. he'll face much better opposition in saamid that he will beating up some slow middle distance types in the racing post can anyone remember the last horse to win the guineas going the racing post route? i can't. |
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Racing Post Trophy is perfect for Frankel as a winner of the proven Derby prep to end the season unbeaten. Saamidd will be extremely difficult to beat in the Dewhurst they should only go there if they are sure they want to go the Guineas route. He reminds me of Motivator and should be given a similar campaign imo. Will get the mile and a half but will also be a force over 1m 2f after the Derby.
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frankel's overall time was quicker as well, so i don't know, maybe frankel could beat saamid in the dewhurst? would certainly be an interesting race.
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To be fair the 2 races cannot be related at all on different days other than based on your wrist-watch over a distance of your choosing. Think HRAC will do what is best for the horses future whatever happens you can be sure of that. Saamidd will win the Dewhurst based on that performance I will be having a good bet on him unless Strong Suit runs also.
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yeah you're right lot of rain anyway... im a bit of an amateur at this timing stuff
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The last horse to win the Racing Post Trophy and the 2000 Guineas was High Top in 1971/72 (in the days when the RPT was known as the Observer Gold Cup).
I know that the RPT has always attracted middle distance types in the past, but since the drainage works at Town Moor the ground at Doncaster does seem to dry out much more quickly than in previous years and (subject to the vagaries of the British climate) I think it's quite possible that more renewals of the RPT will be run on decent ground in future, rather than on the usual soft ground which has always made it such a stiff stamina test for two-year-olds. The top mile races for juvenile fillies (the Fillies Mile and the Prix Marcel Boussac) have always attracted planty of Guineas (and French Guineas) types, and there is no earthly reason why the RPT shouldn't develop into a similar race for colts. The first three home in last year's RPT all ran in the Guineas (so presumably their trainers felt they had enough speed for the Guineas); the fourth Dancing David started off this year over a mile in the Craven, was tried unsucessfully over middle distances, and was recently dropped back in trip to a mile; the fifth Morana was tried over 12f in the Chester Vase but didn't seem to stay the trip; the sixth Shakespearean has tuned out to be a smart 7-8f horse (as you'd expect from his pedigree). So it's fair to say that last year's RPT attracted a mixture of milers and middle distance prospects and it's a trend that I expect to continue in the future. |
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It's fair to say the RPT is the recognised English 2yo Derby trial and the Dewhurst the recognised English 2yo Guineas trial. It is borne out by the horrific record of RPT winners going on to win a Guineas.
Part of the reason for this is the ground at Donny late in the year bears zero resemblance to Newmarket in May. The RPT is on the other hand an excellent prep for a Derby horse as it is not the speed test of a Dewhurst and the extra furlong and slower ground (and no dip) give a middle distance horse a chance to cruise for further without being taken off his feet early then kick as he would be ridden in a Derby. It is no coincidence the RPT is an excellent Derby but not Guineas trial. Lots taken in by St Nicks 'speed' on Donny ground last season for the Guineas making him 5/4 when all he did was outspeed moderate middle distance types on way slower than Newmarket May ground. |
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Saamidd for the 2000 and Frankel for the Derby .. 140/1 double
![]() joking aside .. prices are ridiculous .. Horses going via Conditions races always leave doubts in my mind. |
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Eric, I won't go on about this, as it's just a pet theory of mine and nothing more. But it's interesting that the winning times for the RPT in the three years since the irrigation and drainage improvements at Town Moor have been much quicker than the average for the race:
2007 Ibn Khaldun 1:37.62 (fast by 0.88) (good) 2008 Crowded House 1:39.17 (slow by 0.67) (good) 2009 St Nicholas Abbey 1:39.62 (slow by 1.12) (good to soft) Incidentally, the two previous runnings of the RPT at Doncaster (before the drainage work) had been run on heavy ground (1:45.10) and soft ground (1:41.62). The interesting point is that the three most recent winners were strong Guineas fancies, even though they ultimately failed to make an impact in the Guineas itself (and Crowded House eventually missed the Guineas in favour of a conventional Derby prep in the Dante). Ibn Khaldun was Godolphin's main Guineas hope and was sent off a 7/2 chance in the Guineas itself. He was by Dubai Destination out of Gossamer, so was bred to be a miler, not a middle distance horse. Crowded House (by Rainbow Quest out of a speedier female line, from the family of Storm Cat) was ultimately best at 10f. St Nicholas Abbey, as we all know, was strongly fancied for the Guineas at Ballydoyle and had reportedly been showing a lot of speed at home. SNA is by Montjeu out of an unraced dam who was bred to be a miler. I think it's just a matter of time before a RPT winner makes a real impact in the Guineas. Trainers are starting to cotton on to the fact that the new drainage system at Doncaster makes the RPT (subject to the weather, of course) potentially a much less demanding stamina test. Just a theory of mine. |
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Watching the Us Open at the mo have a good freebie on Nadal to win the tournie so will keep it brief ... Think it is a case of trainers needing to learn the hard way this is not a good Guineas trial never has been. Why go there when you need to hone a horses speed and into the bargain you get experience of the dip thrown in the Dewhurst. The 3 Dewhurst runners all finished ahead of the 3 RPT runners in St Nicks Guineas. How can you improve on the Dewhurst if you want a great Guineas trial for your horse?
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nice bit of sly aftertiming there eric.
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