how do you calculate a £600 loss eric when you have already confessed this .. no wonder you get stick on here.


eric_morris
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
Add contact | Send message When: 24 Apr 11 19:44 Joined: Date Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 3,053 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
What is the total stake in your 1000 Guineas book now JamesP, mine is 5k ?

sorry about ur loss james btw.

eric_morris     Joined: 27 Jun 10
Replies: 3053 01 May 11 15:34 
Nice call secretgambler, 600 quid down here not a bad result combined with yesterday Moonlight was cut across immediately coming out of the stalls by Cape Dollar writing was on the wall for her straight away.

This is why I put less effort in with the less predictable fillies than the colts.



A truly stunning post.

Well, what an extraordinary result - just goes to show that horses can make a monkey out of anyone!  Even the trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni admitted afterwards that he got his filly wrong, having thought that she would need a longer trip and softer ground.  I shared that opinion and thought she would be too slow to make an impact today.  Doh![:o]  And to think that she was really only there because of the injury to White Moonstone. 

My prediction that one of the 'speed' fillies would prevail was well wide of the mark.  It looked as though Moonlight Cloud failed to see out the mile.  Hooray certainly didn't get the trip.  Memory didn't even consent to start.  Maqaasid fared best of the speedier fillies and has clearly trained on very well.  Havant stayed on but needs a longer trip.  The winning time was disappointingly slow (mainly, I suspect, due to the head wind) and several of the runners took a keen hold, which didn't help their chances.  All told, a puzzling result and the form of a number of the beaten fillies should not be taken too literally.

I made a loss on the race, but it would have been even worse if Together had held on (O'Brien's filly went completely unbacked by me, but I did have bits and pieces on the winner in the last week or so, including £20 at 250 on 20 April - sorry, flagrant 'aftertiming', but I never expected her to win!).  If Together had won, I would probably have given up antepost betting for good!  Oh well, back to the drawing board for most of us.  The only positive to take from the race, for trends followers, is that once again the race has fallen to a filly with pattern race form as a juvenile (albeit just a Listed race).

Remarkable tipping by secretgambler - very well done!

Bad luck, sintonian - I'd forgotten that you'd backed Together.  I must say, I can't remember the last time a filly ran over 10f prior to running in the Guineas - a very strange preparation, but I dare say it won't be the last time it happens (with these big sales race pots up for grabs in the spring).  Together is a very hard filly to weigh up - she was always well regarded last year and ran well in the Fillies' Mile, but at other times looked below classic standard and threw away her chance in a couple of races by veering across the course. 

Perhaps the Fillies' Mile form was the best on offer last season after all - White Moonstone beat Together by a neck, with Theyskens' Theory (who had beaten Blue Bunting by five lengths in a maiden) a further 1¼ lengths away in third.  A question of 'what if', as far as White Moonstone is concerned!  (She'd have loved the fast ground too!)

What's happened to Theysken's Theory anyway?  My first bet that!

A quick look at Blue Bunting's form gives some hope for Ela's Diamond who is one of my Oaks possibles but apart from that the whole result was a bit left field.

I guess I was right to be down on Memory, but haven't really learnt if she's the horse she looked last year, I suspected not... time will tell.
Both pleased and disappointed with Nova Hawk:  Ran well but faded for 4th, Moonlight Cloud musn't be a miler, nor Hooray and overall the race is a loser.  Hey ho.  It was fun while it lasted.

As a postscript, I believe earlier on this thread I wrote a long opinion piece on Godolphin maybe having found the key to the Classics, mainly through appointing Al Zarooni and having Mark Johnston tending many of their string amongst other things.  And so it came to pass!  Did I back Blue Bunting?  Did I heck!

A final word for Eric, who used the very same Godolphin piece in a deleted thread to run me down!  Low blow padre, low blow...

The effect of a headwind should certainly not be underestimated, it can turn the form inside out.  But I'm interested in your comment, secretgambler, that "all the stats were in her favour".  When I was doing a final check on the declared runners I couldn't find any meaningful stats in her favour at all.  Which stats drew your attention?

This was a tough one, places as well as the winner. However there is no reason to throw the baby out etc etc for future years.

I still believe this is the best Classic for an AP book and will be looking to start my 2012 version in the next month or so using the same combination of my own immediate post-race opinions ( Memory   ), taking account of posters I respect ( Helleborine   ) and maybe hoping for a bit of good fortune on the day [;)]

Jair, now we know why they did not go for a trial with Memory.

Richard Hughes post-race comments suggest they had concerns about her reluctance, and if she did that in a trial, then they could not have raced in the Guineas.

Interesting one that Sint.

Ironically, she may well have the ability, may well have been the best horse in the race.  It's just she's gone sour!

What backers would have given for that knowledge.   Show that teh Hannon trial method is sound.  Dubawi Gold, an unconsidered type, runs a blinder after getting fit on course, Memory is absent and runs a shocker.

I said my book wouldnt remain that way are you th1ck. I dont arb well in advance of antepost but will carry the risk near to the day unless I think there could be a non runner due to ground (Havant) or lack of balls (Frankel) then tweak my book nearer the time. The reason I made a 636 loss is I messed up my account funds or I would have been level. I tweaked my book on the 1000 mainly on the day and day before this season. This is a small loss for me nice of you to be concerned though. I made a lot more on Frankel the Guineas and my Derby book remains good with others I have shortening dramatically while Frankel has lengthened.

The fillies have shown over the years to be worth less effort than the colts and am saying that having backed Special Duty last season.

Good luck to the person(s) who got the pin in the right place this one.

[:D]

"Tweak."

Textbook.

Eric Morris - "Good luck to the person(s) who got the pin in the right place this one. "

Prefer a pin to a full quiver of arrows any day of the week :-) There of course was no pin, there was however a full blown analysis taking conditions on the day into account, how the race might be run with strong stats in her favour both on breeding and trainer/jockey. Some people may say it couldn't be found on form and they may well be right although the clues were actually all there if you look in the right areas but a value approach allayed to a contrarian analysis has never sat well with so-called form 'students' but I wouldn't have it any other way.

Eric = Arber

I thought Arbing was the work of the devil and only done by spineless idiots like myself - talk about the pot calling the kettle black

I happily admit to being an arber and have no shame in doing so. Since the introduction of Betfair I base a lot of my betting strategy, espeically bigger bets, on  being confident the price will go lower either before or during the race, so I can lay off for a free bet or profit - see my Maqaasid posts (said she would trade shorter in running  - think 1.7 was the lowest price matched).

Had to laugh when I read think it was P Healey in the RPost about betting he is fairly high up there. Totaly clueless what a mug punter he must be and gets paid professionally for spouting such inexperienced c@ck.  You only have to look at the antepost selections in the RPost and that is with the benefit of inside information, Watts selections are beyond a joke. W1seprice chose Picture Editor the Derby early he is pretty useless long range, benefitting short range from more recent info closer to the race giving him a much better strike rate. He also had Roderic OConnor the Guineas wtf was that and was desperate for Frankel to not run in the Derby printed at every opportunity he thought he would not stay. If Frankel had ran he'd have stuffed W1seprice and his Picture Editor selection alright.

once I decided they didnt have the balls to run him

So that was some months after much of the forum had told you it wasn't going to happen.

Eric's 1000 Guineas techinique:

'Moonlight Cloud won a trial, I think i'll back her'
'Memory looked good in the summer, think i'll back her'
'Havant got a positive write up in the Racing Post, think i'll back her'

Years of experience to get to that level.

Great to have you back Eric!

As far as I can tell your technique seems to involve attempting to foretell the favourites in a race and getting them in your book at larger prices.

Hardly ground breaking, and falls apart completely when a non-favoured horse wins.

Tell me i'm wrong

Value on day of race .. oh dear .. next.

So i'm right, thought so.

Tell us your Derby book, Eric.