I see the thread that Eric started just to slag off jair1970 has been taken off the site - seems even Betfair are getting tired of him

Richard Fahey will supplement Barefoot Lady ... sired by a Guineas winner ?

And Michael Bell has given Margot Did an entry in the Golden Jubilee, fyi.

I have a life I dont spend it all on here as you all do.

JamesP, thanks for replying.

Her sire might not be an unknown soon with Sir Henry's colt that might be a Commander In Chief, and his stock seem quite capable on fast but we will see.
As for Make A Dance, well she could be a Ghaanati and if so you have at least covered your bets.

Have Fury in the 2000gns and just lately that has been looking a much better proposition than than early March. Although with Frankel around it is going to be difficult. Could of had him ante post and Workforce last year but to me it is not just form; the name has to be of significance to me.
Check out my piece on Cosmic Sun, and look forward to doodling to you again.

Kind regards

What a sad, sad question

JamesP will know the main advantage of this method which isnt obvious to most and answers one of the questions posed to him on here by someone else he didnt answer.

If James has a horse in his book at 50/1 and 40/1 that he has a good chance to lay off at 20s  closer to the day, how is this expensive? Seems quite shrewd to me.

Didn't you back Havant on the back of a RP article on 29th march that you have laid off against? Good for the goose but not the gander?

you've started him off again Roobuck.

I think it's a good idea if no one replies to Eric any longer(myself included), for obvious reasons.

Eric/Kirk - you can keep telling us (and indeed yourself) that you have thousands invested antepost on all the classics until your blue in the face - there is nobody on here who believes you.

And as if James has any need to state anything about his level of staking or his book on the race - the thread, and all threads like it, is about highlighting and discussing the metrits of various horses, something James does better than just about anyone else - he never mentions money, because the size of bets is not relevant in the slightest. Even if he stated he dosen't bet his insights and opinions will still be just as welcome and relevant.

Sorry Sint - I was typing my reply when you posted your suggestion. I think your right - I will refrain from replying or posting anything that is directed towards eric.

Totally relevant, none of you understand why. JamesP does know why and is why I am posing the question to him not you ... you wouldnt have a clue.

A reasonable size book using this method would contain mid 20k's total stake which is the return from Moonlight Cloud JamesP has. He may however build smaller books than this. 40s means nothing it is the context within your book that matters with this method. I have a similar stake and price Virginia Waters the Guineas however it just covered my book.

Hypothetically you're suggesting that an ante-post book has been created (stake size £600, total book 20k+) that involves backing what, 30 horses?

Don't see why this would be so. Realistically you'd be creating a book based on few horses but limiting yourself to those with high credibility and at long odds. For example with regards Moonlight Cloud, her trainer said this on September 9th:

"She is a filly we have big hopes for and is very rare. You can do anything with Moonlight Cloud and she has huge class.

"We will now probably run her in the Jean-Luc Lagardere (October 3). I have never had a two year old this good,"

Head won this conditions race two years ago with Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum's Naaqoos, who subsequently triumphed in the Lagardere.

Naaqoos ran to a RPR of 119 in that Lagardere, his filly has just won a race by some margin and he's suggesting she's better than that and better than your average 1000 Guineas winner.

Placing a bet based on this knowledge does not represent a scattergun approach. The only concern at this point would be what race she's being aimed at but 40/1 is factored into this.

There will have been very few opportunities (if any) to get 40/1 about a horse potentially rated in the 120s for a Classic and clearly this is where the shrewd punter steps in.

Is this not the exact same thing as punting Frankel at big odds before he's been through his backend 2yo campaign, presuming that he's a 120+ horse?  But because the horse has done it on a French racecourse it is a less obvious punt?

Dark Destroyer .. for once you make a valid point. They dont block me because that wouldnt allow them to read my posts then try to get even on the times I have proven them wrong on here. This destroys threads and is why a new Block Reading button/link is needed to stop them reading posts/stalking. In your case it is a simple hissiefit after your bet Helleborine was beaten by Moonlight Cloud and I said Helleborine had a way better chance in the French Guineas. I was right and connections decided to do that sensibly.

A_T calls me Dr Who due to bets that I apparently lie about. He is wrong, making him The Joker as he doesnt have the gonads to take up my challenge and donate the stakes to charity when I prove he is making slanderous accusations.

This place is going downhill quick with these gangs of idiots camping on here looking to bring others with more antepost knowledge and success down to their level.

23 fillies remain (including the one supplementary entry Barefoot Lady) after today's confirmation stage:
Barefoot Lady, Blue Bunting, Cape Dollar, Cochabamba, Elshabakiya, Empowering, Havant, Hooray, I Love Me, Immortal Verse, Izzi Top, Laughing Lashes, Majestic Dubawi, Make A Dance, Maqaasid, Memory, Misty For Me, Moonlight Cloud, Nova Hawk, Show Rainbow, The Shrew, Together, Zoowraa.

The following were taken out (no surprises): Ladies Are Forever, Look At Me, Mixed Intention, Nova Step, Soraaya, Traffic Sister, White Moonstone, Wild Wind.  To be honest, I expected a few more to come out.  There is still no definite news concerning most of the 23 fillies, but I'll be surprised if Aidan O'Brien runs all of his three entries, the same applies to John Gosden's three possible runners.  Godolphin haven't decided whether to run their pair.  No news concerning Cochabamba, Elshabakiya and Immortal Verse.  So it looks like there will be quite a large field (at least 16 runners I would guess) and it's an open race.  It's hard to fancy anything outside the first six in the betting and there's no obvious 'value' left among the outsiders.  If Hooray has come to hand in time for the race and if she manages to settle into a sensible pace through the first six furlongs of the race (thus giving herself every chance of seeing out the mile), she looks sure to be in the shake-up.  Any chinks in her armour will surely be exploited by Moonlight Cloud, provided she gets a clear passage through the race.  Those would be my pick at this stage, but obviously nobody knows for sure how forward the seasonal debutantes will be or which ones have improved the most over the winter.

Still think Empowering could run a big race tbh. She put up 1lb overweight last time, broke from a wide draw and used up gas early, and looks to be going forwards. Certain to get the trip aswell. There are worse 33/1 bets out there imo, but I had a few quid at 80's the other day, athough she was trading at 110 yesterday!

Agree with sintonian. Empowering a massive price, very reminiscent of Virginia Waters and in an equally poor year (unless Moonlight Cloud is the beast her trainer thinks she is, which is possible), she should be no bigger than 14s.

I've had a few ks on both myself...

I'm not sure I agree about Empowering - I reckon she is priced about right at around 33/1.  Although she won her trial in clear-cut fashion, they finished in a heap behind her, with the thoroughly exposed Juliet Capulet beaten little more than three lengths, and I'm not convinced that the form is anywhere near good enough as it stands.  She'll need to improve by a stone or more to make an impact in the Guineas and this year's renewal looks more competitive than the race won by Virginia Waters in 2005.

history note will win the irish 1000.

ty

Empowering has precisely no money on the lay side in the new market on here so there must be some doubt about whether she will line up.

Moonlight Cloud has the form in the book but I shall want to see her in the paddock first. It is hard to judge from race videos but does she really look like a Guineas winner? Mind you, who'd have backed Attraction on conformation?