"I have the first 3 favs who will all start at around half the price they are."  Mm, we'll see about that.  Personally I doubt if the odds will shorten much now (unless any of the leading contenders are pulled out).  9/2 the field.

Regarding the first three in the betting, it's true that I said on this thread after Havant's Oh So Sharp Stakes win that I felt she would be more of an Oaks type than a Guineas one, and I still stand by that comment, which is based more on her pedigree than anything else.  We'll see whether she has the pace to make an impact in the Guineas on fast ground.  I know that she shows plenty of dash on the gallops, so I'm prepared to be proved wrong!

Regarding Richard Hannon's filly I stated after her Cherry Hinton win last year that "a rating of 109 after three unbeaten starts marks Memory out as a smart filly who will need to improve by only a few more pounds to make an impact in the Guineas next year."  I also said that she should not be written off after one poor run in the Moyglare.  The point I was making last summer about her odds for the Guineas was that 14/1 after the Albany at Royal Ascot was poor value at that time and that 5/1 after the Cherry Hinton was terrible value at that time.  I stand by those comments.  She drifted out to a much bigger price after the Moyglare, which was then quite good value (as I again remarked on this thread).

Regarding Moonlight Cliud, here are my comments on Freddie Head's filly on 12 September last year:
"First up, a sensational performance from Freddie Head's filly Moonlight Cloud in a 7f conditions race at Longchamp, which had to be seen to be believed.  She simply oozed class, cantering all over her rivals before quickening away in an instant, eased down to win impressively by 6 lengths.  The form probably doesn't amount to a great deal, with the second, third and fifth all making their debuts, and the fourth Uldiko with prior form figures of 8657616586 (well beaten in Listed contests, including tailed-off last of eight behind Mambia on penultimate start).  But the winner showed a lot of speed and a superb turn of foot and won very easily indeed.  She looks a very smart filly.  I was so taken by the performance that I backed her speculatively for the Guineas (I was quoted prices ranging from 12/1 to 40/1), though there have to be doubts about her participation at this stage.  Although she's by Invincible Spirit I think she'll get a mile: her half-brother Cedar Mountain (by Galileo) was a useful 12-14f winner and her half-sister Lakuta (by Pivotal) won over 9-10f; her dam Ventura (by Spectrum out of a half-sister to Generous and Imagine) won twice over a mile.  She's now unbeaten in two starts and probably heads next for the Gr.1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, where she will surely give the colts plenty to think about.  Freddie Head considers her to be possibly the best two-year-old he has ever trained."  The 40/1 was with Korals by the way.

James

Simply disregard the comments about it being a poor thread, been very informative right from the word go. I hope MC goes well for you - 40/1 great price.

* turned down

As others have said it has been an excellent thread with some great pointers from James on the french fillies (taking 40/1 on Moonlight Cloud before Eric had even heard of her - thats proper antepost punting)

James,

Can I just add that your thread is about the only reason I come back to this forum.  Please keep posting, keep giving us informed and insightful views ... and keep winning!

Here here keep it up James and dont feel you have to justify yourself to anyone. In the meantime I sincerely hope you are wrong and that White Moonstone hacks up !!

"100% behind James in all this. What a shame a thread that has been such a good read since last summer has resorted to this."




It gets to the point where the people who reply to him are help ruining the threads as much as he is. I ignored him, yet the threads still get ruined by the people who respond to him. This question is directed at posters in general, is it really that hard to block someone ?

Thanks for all the comments.  Much appreciated.

Like everyone else, I've not heard anything about running plans for Look At Me or any of the other O'Brien fillies.  It was certainly a promising run behind Havant, but the bare form is nothing special: she finished nearly five lengths in front of Lily Again, who was beaten by an even bigger margin in other races last year by Laughing Lashes, White Moonstone and Zoowraa, and this year was beaten 7¼ lengths in the Nell Gwyn; Ladyanne, beaten 2½ lengths by Look At Me at Newmarket, had been beaten 5½ lengths in a nursery off a mark of 88 in her previous race and was subsequently beaten nearly 10 lengths by Zoowraa at Newbury.  Look At Me's dam is a sister to Henrythenavigator but she acted well on a yielding surface and Look At Me is by Danehill Dancer, whose progeny often act well on soft ground.  I suspect they may decide to run her in the French Guineas or wait for the Athasi Stakes and then the Irish Guineas, but that's pure speculation on my part.

JQ would have received quite a dismissive write-up, I suspect.  I'm happy to admit that I gave her practically no chance.  I don't know anyone who gave her a serious chance.  Just goes to show that upsets can happen (or very nearly happen) from time to time.  Fair point.

I suspect that if Coolmore thought that if Look at Me was their one for the race, there would have been some movement in the market by now

You can never factor in the kind of draw bias that we saw in last years renewal into Ante Post betting and history will view the race as quite poor. There is always the danger of rain on watered ground rendering months of study useless.

No rain f/c at Newmarket before the guineas as yet(metcheck) and that could put Havant and Dream Ahead out of their respective races

I'm surprised that Sir Michael Stoute has already issued a warning about Havant's participation on fast ground.  Far be it from me to argue with the master trainer, who obviously knows the filly best, but there's nothing in her pedigree to suggest that fast ground would be a problem for her.  She's by Halling (who went very well on fast ground and whose progeny tend to do likewise) and she's a half-sister to Leadership who, despite being by soft-ground influence Selkirk, acted very well on fast ground.  Havant showed a bit of knee action in her two starts on softish ground last season, so maybe that's why they're worried about fast ground.  No one wants really firm ground, but genuine good to firm ground without any jar should be fine for her.

I'll need to go back and read the quotes, but I saw the interview live and got the impression they would be heading over. It was the Guineas trial she won. She is trading at 75/1 here,however, which is little big for a horse who has shown her well being this season so perhaps there might be some doubts about her participation.

Aidan has not said she is a definate, but that is as close as you'll get with them.

That Fame and Glory run isn't much of a reflection.  They're always easy on their older horses early on and never get into gear until around Guineas time.

Did they turn up undercooked last year? Maybe but nothing seen since from Fencing Master or St Nicholas Abbey suggests they were good enough and only Devoted To You ran in the fillies race albeit they were weak on fillies last year, Lillie Langtry slow to come to hand, aside. In fact, 3/75 on 2 and 3yos in England last year? 0/31 on 2yos?

That's awful really. Have they got good horses this year? Maybe not.  Noticably more 4yos in training for them and also the Fitri Hay linkup. Why is Together running in a sales race? Is there any worth in even running Misty for Me if she's may not be the horse of last year?

As ever with Ballydoyle, reading between the lines is a complex business and i'll always remember the year Spencer had with them as a classic case of nice job, shame about the horses.  Meath anyone?

Agree 5/1[11/2 b356] is still good value.

if she does bolt up in guineas,how good is wooton bassett?

meant half the price I took them at.

i agree with unclepuncle. just to add, Moonlight beat Utley now rated 112 and was beaten 1 length by 112 rated horses in the Lagadere, Wootton was rated 120 and i didn't think she was given a hard time late on. cheers.

Having disregarded Havant as the likely winner -
have now moved on to White Moonstone.
This one won Meon Valley and May Hill. She appears to have done nothing wrong in her 2yo career but having won two G1 races over a mile may need further as 3yo, but I'm only guessing.

The plain facts are that no 1000 winner since 1982 (29 years)has won both Meon Valley AND May Hill.
You will find 7 fillies that won a Group 1 over 8furlongs but you wont find a winner that won two Group 1 races over a mile.

Maids Causeway was nearest finishing 2nd in 2005 Gns having finished 2nd and 3rd in those races.
Winners of both those races include Reams Of Verse, Simply Perfect, and Rainbow View. None of those had a trial run in current season either.