Horse Antepost
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I haven't backed anything yet for next year's 1000 Guineas, but with July fast approaching and the better fillies starting to appear, I thought I'd start off a new thread.
For what it's worth here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (with their Racing Post Ratings and form figures):
107 Maqaasid (J.H.M.Gosden) -11
106 Meow (D.Wachman) -212
105 Memory (R.Hannon) -11
105 Ladies Are Forever (G.R.Oldroyd)-13
104 Margot Did (M.L.W.Bell) -112
99 Radharcnafarraige (J.S.Bolger) -32114
97 Miss Liberty (Mme Pia Brandt) -4111
97 Tiz My Time (K.McPeek) -223
95 Emma’s Gift (Miss J.Feilden) -4315
95 Excello (M.S.Saunders) -913
95 Purple Glow (J.S.Bolger) -431236
94 Magic Potion (P.Bary) -052
The Queen Mary winner Maqaasid is clearly a smart filly but as a daughter of Green Desert must be very unlikely to stay a mile next year. The fillies that finished close up in the Queen Mary (Meow and Ladies Are Forever) also shape like (and/or are bred to be) sprinters.
The Albany Stakes winner Memory came from some way back at Ascot and shapes as though she will stay at least 7f, but she only had a head to spare at the line over the very promising Margot Did. The latter is clearly speedy but is out of a mare who stayed 12f, so it's hard to know how far she will stay. My impression at this stage is that the Albany form isn't especially strong, but we should have a better idea after the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket.
The only filly generally quoted for next year's Guineas is Memory, recently cut to 14/1 from 20/1 with one leading firm, but still available at 16/1 and 20/1 in places. At those odds Memory makes very limited appeal. She should be a 33/1 shot. Consider some of the early-season fillies I have backed for the Guineas in recent seasons:
In 2004 Damson was available at 20/1 or bigger for the following year's Guineas after her impressive 3l win in the Queen Mary (RPR 110), prior to her odds-on win in the Phoenix Stakes. In the same year Divine Proportions was 33/1 for the Guineas after her easy 4l win in the Gr.3 Prix du Bois (RPR 111); she was still 25/1 after her win in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin in July.
In 2005 Flashy Wings was 33/1 for the 2006 Guineas following her 3l win in the Queen Mary (RPR 110).
In 2006 Sander Camillo was 25/1 for the following year's Guineas after her 1½l win in the Albany Stakes (RPR 104).
In 2007 Natagora was 50/1 for the Guineas after her easy 4l win in the Listed Prix la Fleche (RPR 104) and was still 33/1 after she won the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin in July (RPR 110). Listen was 25/1 for the Guineas after her debut win in a Listed race at the end of June (RPR 100), and You'resothrilling was 25/1 after a comfortable win in a Gr.3 race at Naas in early June (RPR 95).
In 2008 Cuis Ghaire was 33/1 for the Guineas following her easy 3½l win in a Gr.3 race at Naas in early June (RPR 105), prior to her Albany win at Royal Ascot.
Last year Lillie Langtry was 25/1 for the Guineas after her comfortable 2½l win in a Gr.3 race at Naas (RPR 99). Her Ascot conqueror Habaayib was 25/1 for the Guineas after her 1¼l win in the Albany (RPR 105). Special Duty was 50/1 for the Guineas before her win in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin (RPR 115) and 33/1 afterwards.
Based on past seasons, Memory is poor value at 14/1 for the Guineas and does not appeal even at 20/1. She's yet another example of the way in which bookmakers are squeezing all the value out of the antepost markets.
There are plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential such as Zabeel Park, Seeharn, Gemstone, Googlette, Wild Wind, Kissable, Together, Looking Lovely, Rimth. More will appear in the coming weeks. But nothing has really impressed me so far.
For what it's worth here's a list of the top fillies so far this season (with their Racing Post Ratings and form figures):
107 Maqaasid (J.H.M.Gosden) -11
106 Meow (D.Wachman) -212
105 Memory (R.Hannon) -11
105 Ladies Are Forever (G.R.Oldroyd)-13
104 Margot Did (M.L.W.Bell) -112
99 Radharcnafarraige (J.S.Bolger) -32114
97 Miss Liberty (Mme Pia Brandt) -4111
97 Tiz My Time (K.McPeek) -223
95 Emma’s Gift (Miss J.Feilden) -4315
95 Excello (M.S.Saunders) -913
95 Purple Glow (J.S.Bolger) -431236
94 Magic Potion (P.Bary) -052
The Queen Mary winner Maqaasid is clearly a smart filly but as a daughter of Green Desert must be very unlikely to stay a mile next year. The fillies that finished close up in the Queen Mary (Meow and Ladies Are Forever) also shape like (and/or are bred to be) sprinters.
The Albany Stakes winner Memory came from some way back at Ascot and shapes as though she will stay at least 7f, but she only had a head to spare at the line over the very promising Margot Did. The latter is clearly speedy but is out of a mare who stayed 12f, so it's hard to know how far she will stay. My impression at this stage is that the Albany form isn't especially strong, but we should have a better idea after the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket.
The only filly generally quoted for next year's Guineas is Memory, recently cut to 14/1 from 20/1 with one leading firm, but still available at 16/1 and 20/1 in places. At those odds Memory makes very limited appeal. She should be a 33/1 shot. Consider some of the early-season fillies I have backed for the Guineas in recent seasons:
In 2004 Damson was available at 20/1 or bigger for the following year's Guineas after her impressive 3l win in the Queen Mary (RPR 110), prior to her odds-on win in the Phoenix Stakes. In the same year Divine Proportions was 33/1 for the Guineas after her easy 4l win in the Gr.3 Prix du Bois (RPR 111); she was still 25/1 after her win in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin in July.
In 2005 Flashy Wings was 33/1 for the 2006 Guineas following her 3l win in the Queen Mary (RPR 110).
In 2006 Sander Camillo was 25/1 for the following year's Guineas after her 1½l win in the Albany Stakes (RPR 104).
In 2007 Natagora was 50/1 for the Guineas after her easy 4l win in the Listed Prix la Fleche (RPR 104) and was still 33/1 after she won the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin in July (RPR 110). Listen was 25/1 for the Guineas after her debut win in a Listed race at the end of June (RPR 100), and You'resothrilling was 25/1 after a comfortable win in a Gr.3 race at Naas in early June (RPR 95).
In 2008 Cuis Ghaire was 33/1 for the Guineas following her easy 3½l win in a Gr.3 race at Naas in early June (RPR 105), prior to her Albany win at Royal Ascot.
Last year Lillie Langtry was 25/1 for the Guineas after her comfortable 2½l win in a Gr.3 race at Naas (RPR 99). Her Ascot conqueror Habaayib was 25/1 for the Guineas after her 1¼l win in the Albany (RPR 105). Special Duty was 50/1 for the Guineas before her win in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin (RPR 115) and 33/1 afterwards.
Based on past seasons, Memory is poor value at 14/1 for the Guineas and does not appeal even at 20/1. She's yet another example of the way in which bookmakers are squeezing all the value out of the antepost markets.
There are plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential such as Zabeel Park, Seeharn, Gemstone, Googlette, Wild Wind, Kissable, Together, Looking Lovely, Rimth. More will appear in the coming weeks. But nothing has really impressed me so far.
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excellent stuff james
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Excellent as always James.
I agree with you re Memory. She is the best we have seen so far. She missed the break at Ascot (something she did at Goodwood) and still managed to pick up Margot Did who got first run. I was mega gutted having backed her. Margot Did was a bargain buy at £10k and looks like being a real money spinner for connections. |
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a lot of those topping the ratings, don't look like they'll get the trip
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margot did is the best filly. would have won easy had hayl;ey held on a bit longer at ascot
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I have to disagree Dananders. Even Margot's trainer said that Memory would have been an unlucky loser had she not got up.
I am still happy with my 25/1 while remaining open to backing 1 or 2 more as necessary. |
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i found that comment from bell baffling myself . dont see how it would have been so unlucky myself. dont think he rates margot did as top class . im sure hes got some little gems yet to run at his stable
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I think there's at least a fair chance Maqaasid will stay a mile. Green Desert has sired his fair share of milers, she's quite stoutly-bred on the dam's side and she settles well in her races. You couldn't be totally confident, mind.
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Augustine,
I can't see Maqaasid staying a mile to Group 1 standard as per my post earlier on the B&B forum. "I have looked at my breeding statistics for Green Desert which cover a majority of his stud career (1996 to 2009 runners). In that time he has only produced two progeny that I have given a race rating as follows: At two years old achieved a rating of 95 or over at a distance of less than, or equal, to 6 1/4 furlongs. Then achieved a race rating of 105 or over at a distance of more than, or equal to, 7 1/2 furlongs at three years old. They were Desert Prince and Byron." |
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re: Green Desert's offspring. Byron ran three times over a mile: on the first occasion (in the French Guineas, with just seven runners) it's debatable whether he got the trip (led well over a furlong out until inside the final furlong) and in the other two races (the St James's Palace Stakes and the Prix Jacques le Marois) he certainly did not stay a mile (although, to be fair, the ground was against him at Deauville). He was best at 7f rather than a mile, his best performances coming in the Gr.2 Lennox Stakes (at three), the Gr.3 Prix du Palais-Royal (at four) and the Gr.3 Supreme Stakes (at five).
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Memory wins next year's 1000 Guineas!
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Seeharn impressed me a lot today.
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Interesting stats, Equimine, but how big is your sample i.e. how many Green Desert offspring have been campaigned as sprinters at two and milers at three?
I certainly wouldn't want to be dogmatic about Maqaasid's stamina. She may well have limitations but her style of racing and the dam's side of her pedigree do give some cause for hope. Against her is the very fact that she's being campaigned over 5f at this stage. |
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Augustine,
I am not sure I understand your point. But as I said the stats cover a majority of his stud career 1996 to 2009, assessing 6764 runs. The relevant ones as follows: Two Year Olds Sub 51/2 f 160 runs 5 1/2 to 6 1/2f 470 runs 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 344 runs 7 1/2 to sub 10 100 runs Three Year Olds Sub 51/2 f 156 runs 5 1/2 to 6 1/2f 409 runs 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 634 runs 7 1/2 to sub 10 865 runs |
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Khor Sheed won quite well at Newmartnet today. Picked up the runner-up,Shoshoni Wind, who's stable are in flying form ( 3 winners and placed efforts in last 48 hours ) reasonably well when she eventually got going and powered up the finish. Looks like she wants 7f already and Fallon reportedly very impressed.
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Having been following Channon's yard an awful lot this season I'm gonna put up his two that I think could make the race......
Sonning Rose and Fork Handles. I actually really like the latter and although it won a fairly weal maiden I think it is likely to turn out to be his best 2 year old. She is well regarded by all accounts. |
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*weak
PS good luck James, I'll follow this thread with interest. |
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KHOR SHEED is likely to have her next start in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes after breaking her maiden in the Listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket last Saturday.
Sporting the silks of 1998 Derby-winning owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid, Khor Sheed scored by a length over six furlongs on the July Course and a step up in trip beckons according to her trainer Luca Cumani after a quick reappearance at the July Festival was ruled out. He said: "She deserves plenty of credit for her win and it's not often that we run a maiden in a Listed race, so the hint was there to be taken, and her sights are now set on the Sweet Solera back at Newmarket. "She could have stayed at six furlongs - Kieren [Fallon] certainly thought that she has the speed for it - but the Cherry Hinton [on Wednesday] will come too soon and her breeding suggests a step up in trip is the right thing to do." |
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Just seven runners in the Gr.2 Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket on Wednesday:
1. Hooray (Sir Mark Prescott) -18 2. Lily Again (P F I Cole) -12 3. Memory (R Hannon) -11 4. Radharcnafarraige (J S Bolger) -32114 5. Serena´s Pride (A P Jarvis) -414 6. Soraaya (M R Channon) -1 7. Tanfeer (Saeed Bin Suroor) -1 Some winners of this race develop into genuine contenders for the 1000 Guineas (eg Attraction) but the race also produces a fair number of winners who come up well short of Guineas standard. Radharcnafarraige and Hooray were beaten 3 lengths and 5 lengths respectively by Memory in the Albany Stakes, and it's hard to see either of them reversing the form, although Hooray probably wasn't helped by her high draw and it's possible that Bolger's filly ran a bit below her best. Paul Cole's runner Lily Again is interesting: she was trying to give 10lbs to a smart newcomer at Chantilly last time out and went down by a length. Serena's Pride was very impressive when winning her maiden at Lingfield over 6f and then ran well in the Queen Mary (fourth of 18, beaten 5 lengths by the first three): back up in trip she could run into a place. Tanfeer won nicely on debut at Doncaster but the form looks ordinary (the runner-up and third had been beaten 11½ lengths and 12½ lengths respectively by Tanfeer's stablemate Al Sharood at Newmarket) and I get the impression that she is not considered in the top league by her trainer. Soraaya won a four-runner Hamilton maiden and needs to find enormous improvement to figure here. Memory looks to have plenty in hand and should win comfortably, but she makes no appeal at around 14/1 for the Guineas. She'll need to win very impressively against this lot to justify trimming her odds for the Guineas. |
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re: Khor Sheed
I like this filly, but I tend to overrate Cumani's fillies (Fantasia and Seta being recent examples), so I'll watch her next race before making up my mind about her. The Sweet Solera looks a sensible option for her, but she's likely to be up against some promising 7f maiden winners like Jaaryah, Cape Dollar and Cheque Book. |
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What makes you say her trainer isn't keen on Tanfeer James? Sent off 4/6 on debut, she won in nice style and has a really nice looking pedigree.
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On the day Tanfeer won there was a lot of speculation that her stablemate Ragsah (a half-sister to Dubai Millennium), who finished runner-up at Newmarket a few hours later, was rated the better long-term prospect. This was partly prompted by a TV interview at Doncaster in which Saeed Bin Suroor was asked how Tanfeer compared with Ragsah and he responded with 'Ask me after Ragsah wins this evening' (or words to that effect). Ragsah is a very nice type who should go on to better things, whereas Tanfeer is a smaller filly without much scope. Both were expected to win and were heavily backed, but Ragsah came up against a well above average winner (Sweet Cecily). Tanfeer's grand-dam Muwakleh was very smart but hasn't produced anything of note (her best offspring to date being 80-rated handicapper Manaal). The Doncaster form looks very ordinary, so Tanfeer has it all to prove. However, I certainly wouldn't want to rule her out.
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Cheers James, family has disappointed, just love all the sires appearing in the pedigree, Danehill, Mr Prospecter, Green Desert, Kahyasi etc. All depends on price for me, Memory obviously going to be all the rage with the proven form.
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Yes I like Khor Sheed to James out of what we have seen so far. I didn't like Cumani's comment though about taking the hint given he is usually very pessimistic/conservative before a race.
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i was mightily impressed by khor sheed aswell . think that godolphin horse that was 2nd will step up bigtime though
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Memory (11/8) , Radharcnafarraige (7/2) , Tanfeer (9/2) , Hooray (8) , Lily Again (12) , Soraaya (14) , Serenas Pride (16)
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If there were 8 runners I'd be tempted to have an each-way nibble on Serena's Pride at 16s. Lily Again has possibilities but I'll probably end up not backing anything.
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jamesp great post,
are you mr pyman of the racing post? and ben10 are you mr hutton of the racing post? |
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Ha ha. No, but for what it's worth (and despite my earlier post) I think Memory is poor value at odds-on for tomorrow's Cherry Hinton. She should be about a 5/4 chance and I have already laid her heavily at around 1.93-1.94. Evens should be available in the morning or on track in the afternoon.
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i'd rather be on this tanfeer than memory tommorow at the prices
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Well, Memory won the Cherry Hinton in impressive fashion, but she was entitled to win comfortably on the strength of her earlier win at Royal Ascot, and she didn't need to improve to win as she did today. She has been cut from 14/1 to 8/1 for the Guineas, which is far too short at this stage of the season.
I usually build a portfolio of ante-post bets for the Guineas each year, but the way things are going, I won't be starting one this season. Anyone who has been involved in ante-post betting on the classics for the last 20 years or so will know that all the value has been squeezed out of these markets and there is no longer a profitable edge for the astute punter. To put the 8/1 quotes in perspective, consider the fact that Attraction won the Cherry Hinton by a wide margin in 2003 (her final start of the season) and was available at 14/1 for the Guineas during the winter. Sander Camillo was 10/1 for the 2007 Guineas after she won the Cherry Hinton by 5 lengths (a much more impressive performance than Memory's). I would normally want to back a smart filly like Memory, but 8/1 is simply too short. |
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James, impressive though she was, I think she will help make the market for others contenders we have not seen yet. She will be all the rage from now on.
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She was certainly impressive visually, but she finished roughly the same distance ahead of the Bolger filly as at Ascot, obviously Hooray was closer.
I have no doubt she will get a mile. The pricing makes me think of Rainbow View in 2008. Her racing style reminded me very much of Soviet Song, however she didn't look to me as if she has the scope potential of her, though I am far from an expert on such matters (or any others come to think of it). I just think there will be at least one or two who will look as good, and have more scope for training on. |
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re: Rainbow View. She was 8/1 for the Guineas straight after her very impressive 6-lengths win in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes (on only her second start). 8/1 looked good value after she'd added the May Hill and the Fillies' Mile. She started odds-on favourite for the Guineas. I backed Rainbow View at 8/1 (even though I'd already backed her earlier at 25/1). I'm not backing Memory at 8/1: she simply hasn't (yet) achieved anything comparable to Rainbow View's two-year-old form and the price is very very skinny.
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Special Duty was 8/1 after beating the best around in the Cheveley Park in October. Memory looks a top class filly in the making but today she was entitled to win as she did and as others have alluded to, 8/1 is way too short at this stage particularly with the larger stables and trainers with a great record in the Guineas yet to introduce anything of note.
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She is far too short. As bosra says we haven't seen the best from the powerful yards yet and she could easily be a lot bigger than 8s in the Autumn once we have seen all the potential guineas winners.
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I was at Newmarket today and to my (admittedly untrained) eye, Memory does look a little on the small side. Of course she can grow and get stronger, but to borrow an over used phrase: I would think she lacks scope.
She probably will make the market for the next couple of months though, and there could well be some value around because of that. |
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I can't stop laughing - Memory is as short as 5/1 with Sky bet. Is this the worse value ante post Guineas price of all time ? It is only early July after all. The great Sayyedati was available at 20/1 after she had won the Cherry Hinton while Harayir was 25/1 after being beaten in a driving finish with Red Carnival. Have they even layed it to any great amount to justify such a derisory price ? I doubt it. Even the most clued up people on here haven't got a cent on her for next year.
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I also cant stop laughing.
Memory was available at 25/1 for at least an hour after her Albany stakes win. Her breeding, virtually guaranteed to get the mile unlike so many recent forum AP Guineas fancies, was there for all to see as was the electric turn of foot shown in all her races and the obvious high regard her connections hold her in. After the 25s had gone there was still plenty of 20/1 on the next day. People are queueing up on here to dismiss her current price. I must be the only idiot who formed a quick opinion and picked up my phone to back her. |
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Fair play, DD, for backing your judgement. 25/1 was a fair price after her Albany win. I guess the bookmakers who laid her at 25s and 20s are not terribly keen to take any more money for her, which is one reason they're offering such an obviously poor value price as 8/1 (or even shorter!) after the Cherry Hinton. There is always the temptation to dismiss (or look for flaws in) a horse when you've missed out on tasty ante-post prices, but in this case I'm sure that Memory is a smart filly and it's hard not to be impressed by her racecourse performances. With that turn of foot she looks sure to win more good races. The bare form doesn't look anything special, however, and with the exception of Margot Did I doubt whether she has raced against any really classy fillies.
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