Leo Bovary

The Sirenia Stakes a Group 3 race takes place at Kempton on Saturday. There have been six previous renewals, and with each renewal we have seen the standard of those taking part rising.
So much so, that it is possible to draw up some rudimentary trends for the race.
The last four renewals of the race have seen the SP of the winner at 6/4, 7/2, 5/2 & 9/4. Indicating that it is the more classy (higher rated, with good form) horses that are winning this race. Indeed the last 3 winners had all contested Group2 contests and the other, Elnawin, had just won a £106K sales race.
All of the last 4 winners had previously recorded a Racing Post Racing of over 100 before contesting this race, proving that it is the more classy type that wins this contest.
Surprisingly for a Group3, there aren’t that many horses that contest this race that have managed to record a RPR of 100+ >

2011 Shumoos (RPR106) – only 2 horses had recorded RPR of 100+ they finished 1st and 3rd.
2010 Hooray (RPR104) - only 2 horses had recorded RPR of 100+ they finished 1st and 2nd.
2009: Love Lockdown (RPR101) – Only 3 horses had recorded RPR of 100+ they finished 1st, 3rd & 4th
2008: Elnawin (RPR104) – Was the only horse to record a RPR of 100+ and won.

Admittedly this race has never attracted a big field of runners, but if you had blindly bet all the 100+ runners across the last 4 years you would have made a small profit, and I’m sure that once the draw & shape of the race are known it may be possible to eliminate some of the runners.

In this years race at the 5 day stage those with RPR of 100+ are >

Master Of War
Odooj
Pearl Acclaim
Bailey's Jubilee
City Image

At the moment (on Tuesday night) I would be inclined to discard Master Of War and City Image as they have both raced over 7f – something none of the previous winners of this race have done.
Fillies that contested York’s Lowther stakes have won the last 2 renewals of this contest, and Bailey’s Jubilee was runner up in that very same contest last time out.
She would make obvious appeal if lining up & I shall await the final declarations for this contest with interest.

I very much like this time of year, as I like betting in nurseries, particularly ones at around 1 mile.  Horses either have to win or race three times to gain a handicap mark, and as there are no 1 mile maidens early in the season, you are going to come across a number of horses that haven’t raced at, and aren’t exposed at 1 mile. Indeed, nurseries are choc full of unexposed horses.

John Gibby in his excellent book ‘Well handicapped horses’ articulated why as punters we should be looking for unexposed horses far better than I ever could. I can remember reading Gibby’s book with a heavy heart as I had been using methods similar to his for a number of years, and I was concerned that the edge held in the betting market using his methods may disappear with the publication of his book.
Thankfully, that doesn’t seem to have happened.

There are, In my opinion, a few categories of horses you find in nurseries; they are –

The early type – A horse that was out in April or May and placed in maidens. Since then their form has steadily regressed as the edge of maturity they once held recedes. However due to their form figures (which often include a number of placings) they are often more prominent in the market than they should be.

The ‘Prescott’ type – Doing a ‘Prescott’ is running a horse that will be obviously suited to 12 furlongs in a string of 5 furlong races in order to get a low handicap mark. A recent example of this was Grandorino (more of him later) who having had his 3rd maiden run over 5 furlongs, was stepped up to 1 mile at Newcastle last Monday. He landed a gamble and won easily. Grandorino is out of a Shirley Heights mare, is a half brother to a 12f winner and has a Dosage Index of 0.88. 5 furlongs was never going to suit.

The wrong going horse – As many horses contesting nurseries have had very few runs, it is not inconceivable that those runs may have taken place on ground not suitable. Consider the wet spell we have had this year. According to the Racing Posts Stallion statistics Green Desert has an 8% Strike rate on soft ground, but 14% on good to firm.
You would expect a son/daughter of Green Desert to improve for encountering faster ground if they had thus far only raced on slow ground.

Monday at Wolverhampton features two nurseries. One over 6f, and one over 8 1/2f.
There are a couple of the above types in each of these races.

In the 2:30 race Columella is a daughter of Kyllachy. It is an accepted fact that progeny of Kyllachy tend to do best of slow ground, and it was no surprise that Columella was able to make a winning debut on soft ground at Warwick in June. Since then she has had two races on good to firm, the latter occasion Timeform described the going as Firm.
According to Flatstats Kylachy has a 6.2% Strike rate on Firm going, and a 13.2% Strike rate on soft going.
There is then, in my opinion, every reason to believe that Columella didn’t show her best form in those last two races. On Wolverhampton’s Polytrack, Kyllachy’s progeny have an 11.6% Strike Rate.
Columella is also a half sister to Albany Stakes and Cherry Hinton winner Memory. She is a May foal, and its not inconceivable to think that she has some more improvement to come, both from her breeding, and as she matures. And she looks capable of landing this 0-75 class 5 nursery.

The 4:30 at Wolverhampton features the above mentioned Grandorino. He looks well handicapped here under a 6lbs penalty considering he will only be 3lbs higher ( his mark was reassessed before winning last time out) than that Newcastle win.
However, his Newcastle win was gained on very testing going – especially for 2 year olds, some of whom were trying this trip for the first time. It was (with the benefit of hindsight) therefore perhaps no surprise that Grandorino a January foal (had an edge in maturity) whose sire Oratario has a 19% strike rate in Heavy ground, was able to take that contest. Whilst it was officially a class 2 contest, the top weight was only rated 80, making that race in effect, a 0-80.

Grandorino will be running on Polytrack (his sire Oratario has only a 10% SR) for the first time, in a 0-85 (so you could argue he is up in class) against rivals that are proven under the conditions (both Blue Wave and Pippy have won on Polytrack).
He looks opposable to me.
The one that does interest me in this contest is Titus Titan. He is a half brother to Dee Stakes winner and Derby 3rd Astrology, and so stepping up in trip ought to suit him. His sire Holy Roman Emperor has an incredible 20% strike rate at Wolverhampton.  His trainer Brian Ellison had a 15% strike rate during August & his yard are clearly in good health. Titus Titan looks worthy of support in my opinion. 

5f sprints at Sandown have long held a fascination to me. It dates back to 29th May 2000, when Perryston View beat a field of better fancied rivals from stall 1 by 5 lengths. The 2nd and 3rd placed horses were drawn in stalls 3 and 2. The favourite, and second favourite, had stalls 10 and 8, and this put paid to their chances.
I kept records of all the 5f sprints at Sandown for a long time, there were some successes - such as Night Carnation (stall 2) beating Beyond Desire (Stall 3) and Humidor (Stall 1) in last year's Coral charge on Eclipse day.
More often than not, though, I've got it spectacularly wrong. 
The data I compiled wasn't a great help. Low numbers do, in my opinion, hold an advantage, but everybody knows that. And it would be the time when you lumped on the horse drawn in stall 1 that something drawn high would win. Take the 2:15 at Sandown today. It has been won by in the past by Hoh Hoh Hoh who was drawn in stall 17 of 17, and last year by Ajjaadd who was drawn in stall 12 of 10 (allowing for NR's).
The conclusions I reached from my data were that it was best to have a horse that could race 'handily'. This way the horse has enough speed to hold a position from a seemingly favoured low draw (if they get shuffled back they invairably meet traffic problems when starting their run)and can manage to 'get over' from a seemingly unfavoured high draw.
Pinpointing such a horse is the hard part, and even when you do, often the jockey may have different ideas/instructions to you about how the horse should be raced.

Yesterday there were two 5f sprints at Sandown. I got it badly wrong. I thought Equitania (2:20) would have too much speed for her rivals, and would be able to take the position against the far fence. In the 2:50, I though Amazon Twilight would have enough speed to race handily, and enough stamina (she was a previous 7f winner) to be able to handle the stiff finish and pull away from her rivals.
What both those races indicated to me, though, was that when the Sandown Park sprint course is at its full width it really does seem to emphasise the need to get atsclose to the far rail as possible. Effie B won the 2:20 yesterday by sticking to it like glue, squeezing up the inside of Equitania close home. And in the 2:50 Tom Sawyer produced a textbook Sandown Park small field 5f effort (see Solemn on the 7th of June for further evidence of this)by making all against the far rail & then pulling right away.

This leads us on to today's 2:15 race. The obvious horse here to me is Edge Closer. Unsurprisingly he is drawn in stall 1. Even though he hasn't won since 2008 he has been relatively lightly raced since then. He left Richard Hannon in April & has ran two solid races for new trainer Tony Carroll, most notably last time out when 3rd at Newmarket. The way that race panned out (the first two having a massive draw advantage drawn 1 & 2) Edge Closer ran a huge race from stall 13 in 3rd. The next hoss home was drawn 4 and the fifth home was Medici Time who was in stall 19 - that one has since bolted up in Newmarket's greys' race.
Edge Closer seemed to quicken a couple of lengths clear of his field then before tiring, showing he retains at last some of his former ability.
He once won a Listed race when rated 109, and so makes obvious appeal here rated just 87. Assuming he can hold his position from stall 1 here (his usual run comment is 'chased leaders) he looks an obvious one.
Of the dangers I'd give a strong chance to Kyleakin Lass, but 3yo's with the exception of Hogmaneigh have a poor record in this race. Catfish could bounce back if she could recapture her spring form, but while that looks a big 'if' there has been plenty of money for her this morning. She is very speedy & could just about overcome her stall 9 draw, but my preference would be for Edge Closer. 

There are a couple of 5f sprints over at Beverley - another track with a stiff uphill finish and a bias traditionally towards low numbers.
The 3:45 race interests me. Its not one to go overboard about but Amadeus Denton looks overpriced at 25/1 this morning. He started the season rated 13lbs higher, was entitled to need his run last time out (after a 2 month absence)and to my eyes finished finished full of running. He wasn't beaten far ultimately, and will be a fresh horse here after that 2 month break. That run last time out was in a 0-85 event, and he runs in a 0-75 here, so he might find it slightly easier. He is no certainty, but does make appeal at that 25/1.