Leo Bovary

5f sprints at Sandown have long held a fascination to me. It dates back to 29th May 2000, when Perryston View beat a field of better fancied rivals from stall 1 by 5 lengths. The 2nd and 3rd placed horses were drawn in stalls 3 and 2. The favourite, and second favourite, had stalls 10 and 8, and this put paid to their chances.
I kept records of all the 5f sprints at Sandown for a long time, there were some successes - such as Night Carnation (stall 2) beating Beyond Desire (Stall 3) and Humidor (Stall 1) in last year's Coral charge on Eclipse day.
More often than not, though, I've got it spectacularly wrong. 
The data I compiled wasn't a great help. Low numbers do, in my opinion, hold an advantage, but everybody knows that. And it would be the time when you lumped on the horse drawn in stall 1 that something drawn high would win. Take the 2:15 at Sandown today. It has been won by in the past by Hoh Hoh Hoh who was drawn in stall 17 of 17, and last year by Ajjaadd who was drawn in stall 12 of 10 (allowing for NR's).
The conclusions I reached from my data were that it was best to have a horse that could race 'handily'. This way the horse has enough speed to hold a position from a seemingly favoured low draw (if they get shuffled back they invairably meet traffic problems when starting their run)and can manage to 'get over' from a seemingly unfavoured high draw.
Pinpointing such a horse is the hard part, and even when you do, often the jockey may have different ideas/instructions to you about how the horse should be raced.

Yesterday there were two 5f sprints at Sandown. I got it badly wrong. I thought Equitania (2:20) would have too much speed for her rivals, and would be able to take the position against the far fence. In the 2:50, I though Amazon Twilight would have enough speed to race handily, and enough stamina (she was a previous 7f winner) to be able to handle the stiff finish and pull away from her rivals.
What both those races indicated to me, though, was that when the Sandown Park sprint course is at its full width it really does seem to emphasise the need to get atsclose to the far rail as possible. Effie B won the 2:20 yesterday by sticking to it like glue, squeezing up the inside of Equitania close home. And in the 2:50 Tom Sawyer produced a textbook Sandown Park small field 5f effort (see Solemn on the 7th of June for further evidence of this)by making all against the far rail & then pulling right away.

This leads us on to today's 2:15 race. The obvious horse here to me is Edge Closer. Unsurprisingly he is drawn in stall 1. Even though he hasn't won since 2008 he has been relatively lightly raced since then. He left Richard Hannon in April & has ran two solid races for new trainer Tony Carroll, most notably last time out when 3rd at Newmarket. The way that race panned out (the first two having a massive draw advantage drawn 1 & 2) Edge Closer ran a huge race from stall 13 in 3rd. The next hoss home was drawn 4 and the fifth home was Medici Time who was in stall 19 - that one has since bolted up in Newmarket's greys' race.
Edge Closer seemed to quicken a couple of lengths clear of his field then before tiring, showing he retains at last some of his former ability.
He once won a Listed race when rated 109, and so makes obvious appeal here rated just 87. Assuming he can hold his position from stall 1 here (his usual run comment is 'chased leaders) he looks an obvious one.
Of the dangers I'd give a strong chance to Kyleakin Lass, but 3yo's with the exception of Hogmaneigh have a poor record in this race. Catfish could bounce back if she could recapture her spring form, but while that looks a big 'if' there has been plenty of money for her this morning. She is very speedy & could just about overcome her stall 9 draw, but my preference would be for Edge Closer. 

There are a couple of 5f sprints over at Beverley - another track with a stiff uphill finish and a bias traditionally towards low numbers.
The 3:45 race interests me. Its not one to go overboard about but Amadeus Denton looks overpriced at 25/1 this morning. He started the season rated 13lbs higher, was entitled to need his run last time out (after a 2 month absence)and to my eyes finished finished full of running. He wasn't beaten far ultimately, and will be a fresh horse here after that 2 month break. That run last time out was in a 0-85 event, and he runs in a 0-75 here, so he might find it slightly easier. He is no certainty, but does make appeal at that 25/1.