I very much like this time of year, as I like betting in nurseries, particularly ones at around 1 mile. Horses either have to win or race three times to gain a handicap mark, and as there are no 1 mile maidens early in the season, you are going to come across a number of horses that haven’t raced at, and aren’t exposed at 1 mile. Indeed, nurseries are choc full of unexposed horses.
John Gibby in his excellent book ‘Well handicapped horses’ articulated why as punters we should be looking for unexposed horses far better than I ever could. I can remember reading Gibby’s book with a heavy heart as I had been using methods similar to his for a number of years, and I was concerned that the edge held in the betting market using his methods may disappear with the publication of his book.
Thankfully, that doesn’t seem to have happened.
There are, In my opinion, a few categories of horses you find in nurseries; they are –
The early type – A horse that was out in April or May and placed in maidens. Since then their form has steadily regressed as the edge of maturity they once held recedes. However due to their form figures (which often include a number of placings) they are often more prominent in the market than they should be.
The ‘Prescott’ type – Doing a ‘Prescott’ is running a horse that will be obviously suited to 12 furlongs in a string of 5 furlong races in order to get a low handicap mark. A recent example of this was Grandorino (more of him later) who having had his 3rd maiden run over 5 furlongs, was stepped up to 1 mile at Newcastle last Monday. He landed a gamble and won easily. Grandorino is out of a Shirley Heights mare, is a half brother to a 12f winner and has a Dosage Index of 0.88. 5 furlongs was never going to suit.
The wrong going horse – As many horses contesting nurseries have had very few runs, it is not inconceivable that those runs may have taken place on ground not suitable. Consider the wet spell we have had this year. According to the Racing Posts Stallion statistics Green Desert has an 8% Strike rate on soft ground, but 14% on good to firm.
You would expect a son/daughter of Green Desert to improve for encountering faster ground if they had thus far only raced on slow ground.
Monday at Wolverhampton features two nurseries. One over 6f, and one over 8 1/2f.
There are a couple of the above types in each of these races.
In the 2:30 race Columella is a daughter of Kyllachy. It is an accepted fact that progeny of Kyllachy tend to do best of slow ground, and it was no surprise that Columella was able to make a winning debut on soft ground at Warwick in June. Since then she has had two races on good to firm, the latter occasion Timeform described the going as Firm.
According to Flatstats Kylachy has a 6.2% Strike rate on Firm going, and a 13.2% Strike rate on soft going.
There is then, in my opinion, every reason to believe that Columella didn’t show her best form in those last two races. On Wolverhampton’s Polytrack, Kyllachy’s progeny have an 11.6% Strike Rate.
Columella is also a half sister to Albany Stakes and Cherry Hinton winner Memory. She is a May foal, and its not inconceivable to think that she has some more improvement to come, both from her breeding, and as she matures. And she looks capable of landing this 0-75 class 5 nursery.
The 4:30 at Wolverhampton features the above mentioned Grandorino. He looks well handicapped here under a 6lbs penalty considering he will only be 3lbs higher ( his mark was reassessed before winning last time out) than that Newcastle win.
However, his Newcastle win was gained on very testing going – especially for 2 year olds, some of whom were trying this trip for the first time. It was (with the benefit of hindsight) therefore perhaps no surprise that Grandorino a January foal (had an edge in maturity) whose sire Oratario has a 19% strike rate in Heavy ground, was able to take that contest. Whilst it was officially a class 2 contest, the top weight was only rated 80, making that race in effect, a 0-80.
Grandorino will be running on Polytrack (his sire Oratario has only a 10% SR) for the first time, in a 0-85 (so you could argue he is up in class) against rivals that are proven under the conditions (both Blue Wave and Pippy have won on Polytrack).
He looks opposable to me.
The one that does interest me in this contest is Titus Titan. He is a half brother to Dee Stakes winner and Derby 3rd Astrology, and so stepping up in trip ought to suit him. His sire Holy Roman Emperor has an incredible 20% strike rate at Wolverhampton. His trainer Brian Ellison had a 15% strike rate during August & his yard are clearly in good health. Titus Titan looks worthy of support in my opinion.