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If you're basing your opinions around the RP JamesP - I think you'll find in due course their figures for that meeting are a stone light of reality. The ground was described as 'good' the going stick reading 6.6 which is fringing on gd/st, the times were relatively slow - so why did Dave Edwards/Topspeed use a +.20spf Going Allowance?
Similar thing happened when TT won her mdn at Newm - they gave her a 95 but me 111 - have a look at the other races on the card, all the figs are skewed downward so far to be realistic. IMHO - the RP figs for both meetings are JUNK! & I Love Me, on here debut did as much as say, Workforce did on his.... |
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I don't pay much attention to speed figures, to be honest, as they often produce very distorted interpretations of form. The winning time for I Love Me was certainly very good: it was slower (proportionately) than the two one-mile handicaps that ended the card (won by Kindest, officially rated 80, and Parvaaz, officially rated 87), although it was quicker than the 6f handicap won by Kuanyao (officially rated 84). I Love Me was only carrying 8st 2, the other three winners were all carrying over 9st, but taking WFA into account this was certainly an excellent debut (based purely on speed figures). Looking at the race in isolation, however, the form with Shafgaan and Masonic Lady looks quite ordinary, and I firmly believe that Sir Reginald ran well below his previous best (he was given plenty to do). In conclusion, it was a very useful performance for a debutante, but she was clearly trained to the minute and may not produce a lot of improvement next time out.
I agree with you about Theyskens' Theory's maiden win on 31 July: allowing for WFA it was an exceptional winning time. |
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Not sure what way it'll work out but i reckon white moonstone will go off a ridiculously short price, about 5-4. I personally slightly prefer TT and will back her on saturday for reasons i have already stated. This is the race i'm most looking forward to all season tbh and am hoping it just pans out correctly with the intelligent horse trying to burn off the one with a serious turn of foot, oh i can't wait.
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My old mate Nick Mordin - he rates White Moonshine as the best filly so far this year but says she may prefer ground on the firmish side which is the opposite of TT and he doesn't tip one in that race in his column in the Weekender this week.
Another one I like for the Guineas who is possibly under-rated by the RP considering she beat a horse rated 108 Margot Did last time and had recent nursery winner, Sugar Beat, who is going to be rated around 80 very soon, nearly 10l's behind the time before that, is BREVITY(USA) She is owned by the same family who owned Reference Point, they don't have many in training - the only other one (Super Sleuth) at present was third in Ghanaati's Guineas & Brevity looks comparable to me & is presently available at 33/s |
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Brevity is a most progressive filly and it will be interesting to see whether she lines up in the Cheveley Park Stakes (a race in which trainer Brian Meehan has had some success in the past). I'm not convinced that the Salisbury win represents strong form, however: she scraped home in a three-way photo and although the placed fillies had run well previously in pattern company the runner-up Rimth let the form down next time at Ayr. I'm also far from convinced that Brevity will stay a mile: she showed plenty of pace in her first two races and although she's by Street Cry out of a dam who won over a mile, she's a half-sister to a 5f winner (at three) and the dam is a full sister to 6-7f winner Daggers Drawn and half-sister to 6f winner Enemy Action (all out of 6f winner Sun And Shade). I think she'll get 7f but a mile is less certain.
re: White Moonstone and Theyskens' Theory, I feel that good ground will suit TT ideally (and reckon that she won at Goodwood despite the ground); WM won on yielding ground at Newmarket but was certainly more impressive on a quicker surface at Doncaster. There should be no excuses for either filly on good ground. |
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Ryan Moore to ride TT. He rode a recent winner for Meehan at Goodwood, Indigo Way. I think it was actually Ryan's first winner since returning back from injury so it was decent of the trainer to Ryan onto a winner like that, particularly when Martin Dwyer was riding Titus Mills on the same card.
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Two questions;
1. After wintering in Dubai will White Moonstone stand any chance of winning the Guineas given past form of Godolphin horses and everything else we have seen in recent years. 2. Undoubtably a good trainer but do you believe Brian Meehan can get a horse cherry ripe to win a classic. My answer to both is NO given what i have seen from previous years, which sort of leaves me scratching my head as to what i fancy to win next years 1000. |
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Missed the price on helleborine but have 40 quid on pontenuovo at 33's, think she will definitely contest the cheveley park.
Re; Brian meehan, i think it is fair to say that his big race wins don't come early on in the season but was desperately unlucky with delegator last year and his time will come ? Who knows really. |
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I really like Brevity, I was at salisbury when she won and she ground out the win that day and imo i think she needs at least 7F and i think she will get a mile. She has some size so i think she can improve from 2 to 3, im not saying she has a fantastic chance of winning the Guineas but i'd rather take a big price about her than a short price about some of the favourites.
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fuzzyone, you have posed two good questions.
1. It's true that Godolphin have failed to make an impact in the Guineas races in recent years, but in fairness there have been extenuating circumstances in some cases and I wouldn't be put off a Godolphin horse simply because it's due to winter in Dubai. In 2002 they won the 1000 Guineas with Kazzia, a terrific training performance considering she was always going to want a longer trip. In 2004 they went close with both Snow Ridge in the 2000 and Sundrop in the 1000, both of whom were at their peak. In 2005 Dubawi was certainly below his best in the 2000 Guineas, while Satin Kiss, who had won twice in Dubai, flopped in the 1000 and disappointed again in one subsequent start (failed to train on?). They've had very few fancied runners since then in the Guineas races: Silca's Sister was below her best in the 1000 Guineas in 2006 (the ground was softer than ideal and she didn't handle the Dip); Ibn Khaldun flopped in the 2000 Guineas in 2008 but clearly had problems and didn't race again for nearly two years; they've had nothing else shorter than 12/1 in recent years (Hibaayeb had no chance from her draw in this year's 1000 Guineas and needed a much longer trip). Godolphin went through a lean spell for a couple of years but they've been firing in the winners this season and I see no reason to suppose that they are about to go through another barren period. 2. I'm certain that Brian Meehan is fully capable of getting a horse to the Guineas in peak condition. Delegator was at (or very near) his peak for the 2000 Guineas and was simply beaten by a better horse on the day (Sea The Stars). I agree with RM, it's just a matter of time before he wins an early-season classic. RM, Pontenuovo is still an intended runner in the Cheveley Park, as far as I know, but do you really think she'll get a mile? I've not backed her for the Guineas because I have considerable doubts on that score. The dam Porlezza was a sprinter (won the Gr.1 Prix Maurice de Gheest) and was speedily bred (by Sicyos). The sire Green Tune doesn't have a great record at stud (his only Gr.1 winner was in Italy and he's never produced a really top class horse). Memory will be hard to beat in the Cheveley Park if she's back to her best. I'm still very keen on both Helleborine (likely favourite for the Prix Marcel Boussac) and White Moonstone. |
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With Misty For Me now a non-runner in the Fillies' Mile and Johnny Murtagh on board Together, I guess the odds should be something like this: 5/4 White Moonstone, 2 Theyskens' Theory, 4 Together, 12 Date With Destiny, 14 Fork Handles, 100 Traffic Sister (113%). Together is a middle distance filly for next year and it will be disappointing if she is good enough to outstay the two market leaders.
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the fillies mile looks a two horse race and i'll be surprised if the front two in the market don't fill the front two in the race.
for me theksen's theory looked game last time but lacks the burst of speed that the godolphin horse has. it's hers to lose. |
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jamesp, i have saved on pontenuovo at 33's as i think she's very good(if only a sprinter) and if she were to win the cheveley park she would definitely head for the 1000 in england i reckon and am on TT at 20's and 11's so possibly going a bit over board about her and other bernandini progency but have taken the chance. I believe she'll definitely beat WM on saturday but am not sure about the guineas for her possibly because she's a may foal.
P.s: fuisse is by Green tune james |
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Re Godolphin and White Moonstone
Surely the fact that an operation as powerful as Godolphin has barely been able to muster a worthwhile challenger for the 1000 or 2000 Guineas in recent years is more pertinent than the fact that they've 'fired in winners' this year. Consistently, they've done these things: 1: Bought a raft of talented horses during the backend of the turf season. 2: Aimed them at Dubai and/or 3: run them in England in midsummer or beyond. Up to this point, the Guineas just do not fit into their schedule; their plan being to have horses peak for the Dubai Carnival and to a lesser extent the mid to latter half of the European turf season. Usually, I would be presenting this evidence as conclusive, however, the change in emphasis this last year leads me to believe that possibly, but only possibly, they could mount a challenge this year. Essentially, they now operate 3 yards in the UK (Suroor,Al Zarooni and Mark Johnston) with feeder trainers in Ireland (Halford, Oxx) and France (Fabre). Less often have horses thrived under the care of Suroor and I would be unsurprised if early season successes could be found if horses were left with their original trainers. The scenario involving Eastern Aria could well become more common IE: stick the blue silks on, book Dettori, hey presto a Godolphin winner. The only way this strategy will work is if ego can be tempered and the best horses can be shared around. This leads me to a second also relevant point. Ever more homebreds are built into the entire operation. The concerted strategy to buy the best racehorses and use them in their own studs was a pertinent attempt to increase the quality of the horses bred themselves. With Dubawi and Shamardal having superb starts to their careers and Teofilos and Ravens Passes coming through, not to mention countless others, there is a real chance that the fruits of their strategy could take hold over the coming couple of years. The portents are good and some would say that after a good few years of Classic underachievement, not before time. Ironically, Coolmore appear to have their weakest crop of 2yos since 2003. Has the tide turned? (Either way, i'm not taking any winter prices on Godolphin horses, but this might be the last year I hold to that) |
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RM, oops, yes, you're right about Fuisse. I hadn't bothered to check the most recent results since I last looked up Green Tune a few weeks ago...
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Chrysanthemum runs 3.15 Curragh today. Drops back 1f.
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White Moonstone was good value for more there as she seemed to make ground quickly on the leaders from last to first but once in front didn't go away seemed to idle there. If Godolphin have her ready by May she currently looks to be a worthy Guineas favourite.
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William Hill are trying to murder the ante post market by going 4/1 the fav. Luckily for her backer she's double that on tote and on here. I wouldn't even be backing at 8, too many things have to fall in to place so i'll take a back seat.
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I thought it was a good effort from White Moonstone at Ascot last weekend, considering that the yielding ground was far from ideal for her. The runner-up Together stayed on well in the style of a filly that will want a longer trip next season - I was surprised to see her Guineas odds cut to as short as 12/1, as I don't view her as a Guineas type at all. Aidan O'Brien can't have been disappointed by the result, as Together had finished behind stablemate Misty For Me last time in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. Theyskens' Theory probably wants a faster surface and ran creditably.
Tomorrow's Cheveley Park Stakes is a substandard renewal, with none of the runners featuring prominently in the Guineas betting. Memory would have been clear favourite for this but sadly had to be retired for the season due to a dirty scope. I'm prepared to give Memory another chance, but she was beaten over 7 lengths last time and fillies simply don't get beaten that far on their final juvenile outing and manage to go on to win the Guineas. Tomorrow's race, which looks wide open (currently 5.8 the field), will revolve around which fillies are able to cope with the likely testing ground and it may have very little bearing on the Guineas. Likely favourite Hooray has never raced on ground slower than good and is probably a sprinter rather than a miler in the making. Similar comments apply to Margot Did and Maqaasid, though I'm fairly sure that Maqaasid was below her best last time in the Lowther and is open to improvement. The progressive Ragsah ran an eye-catching race last time at Ayr and cannot be ruled out with any degree of confidence. Wild Wind put up an improved effort last time and will go on the ground, but that was over 7 furlongs and she's dropping back in trip. Sharnberry won easily last time but it was only an ordinary maiden and she's thrown in at the deep end here. Khor Sheed will have her supporters but she doesn't look quite good enough. Bearing in mind that it's well nigh impossible to tell whether fillies have gone 'over the top' at this time of year, and it's a very tricky race to predict and not one I will be betting in. Perhaps of greater significance for the Guineas market is the Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp on Sunday, for which final declarations will be made tomorrow. It could be a high-class renewal, with Helleborine being taken on by Pontenuovo, Misty For Me and the progressive Mambia. The two unknown quantities are John Gosden's filly Rainbow Springs (a distant runner-up to Frankel on debut) and Freddie Head's Galikova (a half-sister to Goldikova who made a winning debut recently). The other four entries look outclassed. Once again, the likely testing ground will play a part. Misty For Me, who boasts arguably the strongest form, is unproven on really soft ground and ran her best race to date last time out on a much faster surface. Stamina-sapping ground may be the undoing of Pontenuovo. Helleborine and Mambia have both won on soft ground but they won't want it too testing. An impressive win for Helleborine is what I'm hoping for but she's tackling smart opposition and she won't want the ground to be too testing. The Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, also on Sunday, features the very exciting prospect Moonlight Cloud. If she wins impressively against the colts and is declared an intended runner at Newmarket next May she will come into a very short price for the Guineas. She should handle the ground, having won on soft ground last time (on the same card as Helleborine's win in the Prix d'Aumale), but my gut feeling is that she's more likely to be aimed at the French Guineas, regardless of what happens on Sunday. Punters with an interest in the 1000 Guineas should also keep a close eye on the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes tomorrow. Havant, Shim Sham, Khawlah and Look At Me are of obvious interest but are stepping up in class from maiden wins. Havant and Look At Me have already won on soft ground. Shim Sham (by Danehill Dancer) beat Khawlah on a faster surface last time but should cope with the soft ground. The percentage call is to stick with the proven form of Cochabamba, who ran well last time in the Prestige Stakes and is proven on soft ground. |
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I thought Look At Me won very takingly on debut and while the form is not worth a light, she is beautifully bred for a guineas filly, and I will be very interested to see how she goes in the Oh So Sharp stakes tommorow - Looking at the entries I reckon it may have more bearing on the 1,000 than the Cheverley Park.
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yes, look at me will win.
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If the ground was decent I would have backed Kwalah. Very unlucky not to win on debut at Salisbury .. missed the break by about 6 lengths and had to weave through horses at the finish to be just denied on the line by a horse having it's 2nd start for Meehan. All Meehans as we know are improved on their 2nd run so it was very creditable run imo.
I've not seen Aidans runner or Stoutes so will just watch it .. |
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myhtical ... see my thread on horse racing forum... look at me very impressice just backed for 1000 guineas at 30's cheers.
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Sint - looking at Kwalah's pedigree, especially on the dams side I think she may actually relish the soft ground.
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Cheers Uncle. I done various horses at HQ today with proven soft ground form for small stakes, will have alittle on Kwalah then becuase she does have form over further and stamina could come into play here.
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As I said above I think this years Oh So Sharp Stakes is a much better race in terms of finding a 1,000 Guineas winner than the Cheverly Park and if anything wins it impressively we could have a serious candidate.
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Blu Squire go 33/1 about Look At Me or Havant winning today and then the Guineas. That is a truly disgusting price.
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Havant is the best two year old filly I've seen this year in England.
Maybe more of an Oaks filly though. |
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I agree TD - I went through the pedigrees this morning and saw her as more of an Oaks filly which is why I hadn't mentioned her- though to be fair she didn't exactly lack pace today and I'd be suprised if they didn't aim her at the Guineas.
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I too see her as an Oaks filly, not a Guineas one, but we'll see what they want to do.
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Superb win for Hooray - reminds me of Attraction, though whether another 2f is within her compass must be doubtful, especially as she is from a family that tend to deteriorate from 2 to 3.
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Hooray should be given a chance at the Guineas, great performance.
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Excellent performance by Hooray, but I don't see her as a Guineas filly. The trainer doesn't think she'll get a mile and there have to be doubts about her training on from two to three.
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james,
should we really listen to what the trainer says publicly ? |
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reminds me of attraction
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Havant has plenty of toe. 1 mile in early May could be right up her street ? And would leave the obvious scope for the middle-distance races later in the summer. I think they will aim for the Guineas tbh.
Both wins have been on Soft ground so that is the unknown. |
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Couldn't have asked for a better little test of the figs than the first at Newmarket later - I Love Me vs Together (has her trainer had a 2yo winner this side of the water this season? Don't think so)
But they said on C4 last week - 'she is such a small filly - She is well clear on all the figs but she was beat the only time she has run in a field with more than 10 runners so far - I think Together is vulnerable & reminds me of Music Show Take out Together & this is no more than I Love me did a fortnight ago & in so doing became a dual Nick Mordin system qualifier so there's a fair chance she could be profitable to follow during her next three starts, h'mm.... |
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The first race at Newmarket today looks a much classier race than the one I Love Me won a fortnight ago on debut. Even if you take out Together, the likes of Musharakaat, Tale Untold and Masaya are much better than anything I Love Me beat last time out. The soft ground is a complete unknown for several of the runners. A race to watch rather than one to bet on.
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First post on the forum for donkeys'; first bet on a horse for donkeys' too. Was very impressed with Misty For Me in the Boussac. She looked as though she'd grown since the Moyglare too. She goes into the winter on an upward curve and with top-class form. The way she's been campaigned & talked about so far suggests the Guineas will be the plan, at least initially. 10/1 looks over-priced to me.
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Welcome back Mystic Wind. I have a lot of respect for Misty For Me - she's not only very talented but she showed real toughness there in the Boussac. Helleborine is the speedier filly, in my opinion, and seemed to be outstayed by the winner in the soft ground at Longchamp. With that experience under her belt and on quicker ground I would be hopeful that Helleborine would gain her revenge. They are two smart fillies, but at this stage I favour the French filly. Misty For Me may prove best at slightly longer trips next year (as befits her pedigree).
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