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PGA Championship early thoughts

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Replies: 306
By:
vegasdreams
When: 07 Aug 14 15:47
lol pokeron - i will do it on saturday, weather it see's this place is another question i will be studying it first!!
By:
sickoflayinwinners
When: 07 Aug 14 18:47
added luke Donald, I know hes playing well below  form but at 180 worth a small bet I reckon
By:
therhino
When: 07 Aug 14 19:44
Backed Chappell (11th TD) heavily early in the week around the 600 mark and resisting temptation to trade now he's shortened to a more realistic price, and was somewhat excited when Stefani (1st TD) got added, especially at 1000.  Sitting on both for 6-figure wins, so here's hoping.

ExcitedExcited
By:
Total Bosman
When: 07 Aug 14 19:45
Early days, Rhino...
By:
therhino
When: 07 Aug 14 19:48
Of course mate, but still, better than a kick in the head
By:
Total Bosman
When: 07 Aug 14 19:53
Absolutely.  Nice position on Palmer too so couldn't ask for a much better start so far.
By:
therhino
When: 07 Aug 14 20:06
You do love a long shot TB. Do you ever play the more fancied players?
By:
Total Bosman
When: 07 Aug 14 20:09
Not really, no.  For majors I tend to lay a few from the front of the field and use the field green to back a few outsiders big time.  Then I just trade away as normal in-play.
By:
therhino
When: 07 Aug 14 20:12
Do you lose most weeks with that strategy but win big when the stars align?
By:
Total Bosman
When: 07 Aug 14 20:16
I've never struck a really big win, I only have a few big punts for the majors when there's big money available on the outsiders.  To be honest, that's small preparation for the main event, whether I win or not depends entirely on my four days trading in-running.
By:
Quincy
When: 08 Aug 14 03:37
Just moved a bit from Noh to Stefani, therhino. Backed him last week and 360 seems fair for someone on 3 under.  In a fair position with Palmer, just going to look back through this thread and try to find out why I backed him this week, even though I usually do.  Could have something to do with him being 470 on here and only 200/1 with the books.  Good luck with yours.
By:
Quincy
When: 08 Aug 14 03:49
Worked it out. For some reason, I made a note of stonecold's post from yesterday.

stonecold- 06 Aug 14 22:18 
gone for  the folowing
patrick reed 90/1
ryan palmer 200/1 ew
cabrera 100/1 ew
billy horshel 150/1ew
graham de laet 125/ ew

couple smaller bets bigger prices

scott stalling 400/;1 ew
russel henley 300/1 ew

gl all

Swerved most of them. Backed Stallings at 560, DeLaet at 130 and Palmer at 470.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 10:48
This harks back to the bad old days of Tiger's dominance; even in a tightly-bunched board the way Rory is playing it's hard to see him losing.  More important, takes away a lot of tradeability when the market is dominated by one guy.  With one of my two big wins co-leading, the other just three back and my third best (Palmer) also co-leading should be in a great position, but could all be for naught if they're all playing for second.  Need one more Freaky Friday for old times sake!
By:
frames
When: 08 Aug 14 11:08
When they showed his driving stats for yesterday it looked worrying.Please no odds on shots before Sunday.
By:
Quincy
When: 08 Aug 14 11:10
Rory does rather distort the market, Total Bosman.  Palmer one in front and 22 times the price, Westwood one in front and 9 times the price, Chappell one in front and 25 times the price. It's a puzzle to work out the next move.  Probably move a bit of Rory to Chappell and give me another green to trade with.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 08 Aug 14 11:41
It's not really distorting the market, there is a reason why Palmer, Chappell and Westwood are those prices!!!
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 11:44
It's the old impossible position, hard to see him losing, but even harder to back at 2/1 in a crowded leaderboard with 54 still to play.  Still the streakiest guy out there, could shoot 61 today but there's always that glimmer that he could chuck in one of his stinkers.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 11:50
Have Rory and Rickie just been spotted staggering back to their hotel after a night on the lash?
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 08 Aug 14 12:16
Fowler can go back to bed for 4.5 hours, Rory should have known better.
By:
Chosen®
When: 08 Aug 14 12:17
Like most, I hope for the sake of a contest and a lively market that Rory doesn't hit double figures under par this morning. But I'm kind of expecting it.
By:
Quincy
When: 08 Aug 14 12:22
dlarssonf, I know there's a reason.  But, in my mind, they're still too big.
By:
incaseof
When: 08 Aug 14 12:23
Its now nine straight rounds Rory been impeccable with his long game, it feels so unlikely that he'll have an off day at the moment Plain
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 08 Aug 14 12:24
The only chance of him not going strident on this course is if he gets too complacent or chasing any dropped shots. He knows that he is mentally as relaxed as he has ever been when in contention. The nervous anticipation for these events is turning into just a walk in the park.

If he sticks to the game plan over the 4 days, his natural game is too good.
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 08 Aug 14 12:32
was very ominous the way he came back from his double yesterday. Hard to see him not shooting 3 or 4 under every day at the moment.
By:
frames
When: 08 Aug 14 12:36
Torrential rain to start the day.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 08 Aug 14 12:38
Quincy    08 Aug 14 12:22 
dlarssonf, I know there's a reason.  But, in my mind, they're still too big.


That's the beauty of the exchange I don't think they are too big at all.  Best of luck with your bets today Quincy Cool
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 12:38
A lot will depend if he's out in or after the rain.  It's bucketing just now by the looks of things, but unclear how long they can / will play for.  If he's out in the heavy rain could be tough, if they stop and he goes out after he's caught a break and could go way low.
By:
vegasdreams
When: 08 Aug 14 12:44
Well, i dont know weather to be pleased or pi$$ed at my little venture into trading of sorts, but plenty running for me and better than nowt if i'd left it, dont think i could try it in regular events!!

out 0f 69 selections 53 went green.

this means my book now reads -

10 people win - £500

35 people win - £250

8 people win - £200

rest of field lose - £125

out of the 53 green - 31 are under par so theoreticly have a chance.

Hmmm now its broken and wrote down looks worse than it did with loadsa green people in book.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 08 Aug 14 12:47
it all depends who your red and greens are vegas as to whether you have a good book running for you
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 08 Aug 14 12:49
Chances of rain diminishes as they day goes on from 60% at 8am - 38% at 4pm.

Thunderstorms until 10 am but chances of more thunderstorms all day long.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 12:51
Play suspended.  Still, nice of them to try.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 12:51
Play suspended.  Still, nice of them to try.
By:
frames
When: 08 Aug 14 12:54
Need it to clear before Rory arrives on the 10th tee.
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 12:57
As well as he's playing, the phrase "good break for Rory" has certainly been over-used recently.
By:
vegasdreams
When: 08 Aug 14 13:06
dlarssonf - see it's not horrendous but not great

in the market order as it is now - i only have 2 of the top ten (furyk,palmer) so that does not seem good  - but then the next 15 players all win 200 + which look quite good.(sounds ok - 17 of top 25 onside)
suppose it's the same old same old - if rory fires i'm fooked, without him i's proper fancy my chances
By:
frames
When: 08 Aug 14 13:10
Any chance they could start again playing preferred lies ?
By:
Mighty Whites 2008
When: 08 Aug 14 13:12
knowing the forecast i would be surprised if they didn't. If they didn't then unlikely they will change
By:
frames
When: 08 Aug 14 13:14
Didn't already have preferred lies in play MW ?
By:
Total Bosman
When: 08 Aug 14 13:15
JasonSobelGC: Going to be an interesting second round. Started by playing the ball down. Which means they can't switch to lift, clean and place now.
By:
incaseof
When: 08 Aug 14 13:17
So if rain stops and drys out a little in the afternoon the afternoon guys might have an advantage
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