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US Open general discussion
US Open general discussion
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I presume you start forming a team months out? I'll keep a eye out for your team be interested in seeing who the big fish on here have.
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Ski Wiz - not a big player myself - back to £100 a point so only invested £550 with books and £225 on the win market here to trade - smallfry me!
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KR still bets here ski, he's just not on the forum as much.
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how many strokes would tiger have to be off the leader after day 1 to be in double figures.
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I make a good living from it but am comfortable in my spending zone!
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Muppet that's still the guts of £800 staked, it's a fair whack. Was it your post I read talking up the chances of Thompson?
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Yup - kinda have a soft spot for him after last year....
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Last years bets on him were - plus a bit of trading
11/6/12 PGA US Open Michael Thompson 0.1 ew Rd 1 leader 250/1 WON +31.25 11/6/12 PGA US Open Michael Thompson 0.1 ew Top US 200/1 t2nd +4.9 11/6/12 PGA US Open Michael Thompson 0.1 ew 500/1 (6 places) + 0.2 Top 10 33/1 t2nd +19.0 |
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That's pretty impressive I must say. In all honesty tho soft spot aside he has the credentials to go well again - had a small bit on him @160. I remember you tipped Brandt for the masters, correct? and he went close - how do you rate his chances this time around?
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Yeah frustratingly 6th and apart from his Players 8th he has gone right off the boil - I wonder if his injury is truly healed
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whilst you are about the muppet moans , do you know why sihwan kim pulled out of euro challenge tour last week ?
cheers |
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Yeah I don't think that rib can be functioning 100%, he was on fire at the start of the year - I just can't leave him out at his current price, he is too good a player.
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Can't have the Michael Thompson love in this week.
Been following him for couple of years which has payed off at big prices. But at 140 think he's one of the worst prices on the board. I'd be gutted if he got in the mix but some prices have to be swerved. |
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tmm I read on PGA site that Sneds was taking injections to rebuild bone density of his ribs. Enough to put me off at this price.
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Donny - I have no idea as he was playing OK - but he had just bogeyed 8 & 9 in rd 3 prior to stopping - suggests an injury
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my book on purple... also had 200 on scott @ 25s with the books a few weeks back and will have a few quid on tiger at enhanced prices tomorrow
BackOddsStakePotential Profit Adam Scott 26.66£27.62£708.77 Jason Day 50.11£122.95£6,038.57 Dustin Johnson 52£15.70£800.70 Henrik Stenson 140.16£42.47£5,910.23 Bill Haas 107.27£55.49£5,896.99 Zach Johnson 124.55£44.82£5,537.64 Boo Weekley 192.51£30.89£5,915.89 Scott Stallings 119.77£4.33£514.27 Carl Pettersson 317.87£19.71£6,245.49 Kevin Chappell 350.46£16.58£5,794.02 Michael Thompson 311.46£19.40£6,022.96 Russell Henley 227.56£26.18£5,931.38 LayOddsStakeLiability Adam Scott 26£7.21£180.25 Zach Johnson 113.59£49.14£5,532.90 |
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I see that the main man at the USGA and course set-up guy says there are probably more players that can potentially win here than any other venue they go to and that the course could be set up for accuracy and precision and with the length (he says it's only 7,000 yards end to end some days it will be more like 6,800) so the shorter hitters will come into play. I think some big prices could contend. Time to find a few. I've joined the Jerry Kelly bandwagon for starters.
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My five are...
FOWLER @ 80 MAHAN @ 100 ZACH JOHNSON @ 100 POULTER @ 140 COLSEARTS @ 245 |
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Gone for;
Furyk 46 R.Moore 110 Olesen 170 M.Hoffman 590 |
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Liking Olesen at the price, last 3 majors 6th, 9th, 27th
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Might as well join in the bet posting fun. All business done on Purple, and likely more to come. To summarise, big wins on Kelly, Hicks, LaBelle and Morgan Hoffman, with the jackpot being Teater- come in a lot since I got him around 650 but think I'll let him run for a bit of fun. Worst results Sneds, Oosty, Dustin, Keegan and Thorbjorn but all bigger than laid so likely even out a bit. Sitting green on Rory as I think price is generous, called McDowell way wrong laying at 29, and suspect if the price keeps tumbling I'll have to go back in and he'll likely go into this my worst result. Field currently +700.
US Open : Outright - Win Market BackOddsStakePotential Profit Tiger Woods 6.33£640.00£3,409.00 Rory McIlroy 17.92£788.57£13,341.20 Phil Mickelson 42£40.00£1,640.00 Matt Kuchar 40£62.00£2,418.00 Adam Scott 29£42.00£1,176.00 Brandt Snedeker 35.23£72.23£2,472.74 Charl Schwartzel 42£12.12£496.92 Luke Donald 42.01£187.00£7,668.00 Keegan Bradley 56.33£171.07£9,464.99 Rickie Fowler 60.11£318.00£18,797.84 Bill Haas 110£24.00£2,616.00 Boo Weekley 141.21£76.31£10,699.57 Angel Cabrera 142£50.00£7,050.00 Thorbjorn Olesen 172£40.00£6,840.00 Lucas Glover 250£70.00£17,430.00 Nicholas Thompson 960.9£15.00£14,398.50 Josh Teater 655.9£118.78£77,788.97 David Lingmerth 620£4.00£2,476.00 Ted Potter Jr. 665.27£18.00£11,956.90 Shawn Stefani 993.62£9.00£8,933.60 Morgan Hoffman 573.33£60.00£34,340.00 Jerry Kelly 813.6£30.00£24,378.00 Justin Hicks 709.97£31.00£21,978.15 Douglas LaBelle 996.4£43.19£42,991.16 LayOddsStakeLiability Tiger Woods 5.42£743.00£3,284.02 Rory McIlroy 20.13£322.00£6,160.00 Phil Mickelson 30£37.00£1,073.00 Matt Kuchar 26.92£85.00£2,203.00 Adam Scott 27£40.00£1,040.00 Graeme McDowell 29£130.00£3,640.00 Brandt Snedeker 31.11£442.59£13,328.29 Luke Donald 39.08£294.00£11,196.00 Sergio Garcia 45£48.00£2,112.00 Jason Day 48£78.00£3,666.00 Dustin Johnson 48.55£205.16£9,755.86 Keegan Bradley 56£345.00£18,975.00 Louis Oosthuizen 63.46£176.67£11,034.49 Rickie Fowler 57.43£145.00£8,181.64 Jason Dufner 62£41.00£2,501.00 Zach Johnson 114£19.00£2,147.00 Ian Poulter 154.63£49.00£7,528.08 Angel Cabrera 74£145.00£10,585.00 Thorbjorn Olesen 87.44£270.70£23,400.52 Nicolas Colsaerts |
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Merion will have dried out to an extent before we see the first boys tee off on Thursday morning and its interesting to note that at 6,996 yards, this is the shortest US Open course since Shinnecock Hills back in 2004.
Its tight, with rough described by Ernie Else as "the worst I have seen" and with the weather forecast to see continued rain through Thursday, expect some high scores and some big names missing the cut. You may be surprised to learn that Merion has seen more USGA Championships than any other venue, ironically, the majority of the field will never have played the course until this week, so there are no real home boy advantages. All the talk all week has been about players with good ball striking and inevitably the name of Jim Furyk will be on the lips of many, not for me. The American veteran has had his chance at US Open glory and like a boxer with too many heavy fights, he carries way too much scar tissue to be given a serious chance. Another fancied player is Phil Mickelson and in true lefty fashion, he has reportedly flown out of Merion to seek dry weather practice and attend his daughters graduation. You have to admire his work life balance and its not impossible to see him take a hand this week, though I fancy he may just fall short. On no account should anyone looking to back golfers this week, look only at short straight hitters with the best fairways and greens in regulation stats. This event often throws up unusual results and none more so than Michael Campbell and to a lesser extent the Argentine, Angel Cabrera. Be aware, there are lots of contenders here this week and just as many outside of the bookmakers top ten. Until I saw the weather forecast and the recent pictures of a waterlogged Merion, I would have included Graham McDowell, but he is a dry ground player and he tends to pick his shots off the surface rather than go deep and this will be a disadvantage for Gmac this week. My main bet for the week will be the unpredictable Rory McIlroy, reported to have told friends that his irons are "dialed in" this week, exactly what I wanted to hear. The young Irishman has already bagged two Majors and its interesting to note that both were achieved on heavily rain softened venues. He will hit three wood more than driver this week and that will afford him a far higher percentage of approach shots played from short grass, bad news for the other players. Rory is backable because his form has been patchy at best and a further much reported management change must have impacted focus. Have no fear, he is up for this and his camp report him in the same mindset as his previous two Major wins. At 23 with Betfair it looks like a real betting proposition and I am on big time. Charl Schwartzel is a truly magnificent ball striker and I expected him to kick on and challenge more after his amazing Masters victory, but for a number of reasons he has stumbled, especially in the USA. His recent US form has given me reason to take note and in particular, he seems to have regained his confidence with the short stick, when this boy putts well then he troubles the judge. Like Rory he will play three wood of many tees and hi high, towering irons will separate him from many in the field. I have backed the South African bible puncher at 40 with Betfair. There will be a deal of attention on Sergio and of course Tiger. The former will get some spiteful remarks from a partisan crowd and he may struggle to make the cut. The latter blows hot and cold these days and if your a teenager, you struggle to remember the last time the Tiger landed a Major. Even hitting three wood , Tiger is just too wayward and his distance control in not what it was when he was at his peak, I pass on him this week and may also take Rory to eclipse him in the match betting. Next up for me is a man who you may be surprised to learn leads the US PGA Tour stats for fairways hit and is also in the top three for greens hit in regulation, what more could you want folks for a US Open contender. The big Swede has no fear of winning and he is also a real danger on the par 5`s. I expect to see Henrik up there all week and have backed him at 80 s and for first round leader. I remain a fan of Snedeker and had the rain stayed away, then he and Gmac would have been my main picks, but Sneds has struggled since his rib injury and blew out at the Masters on the final day when he looked a real potential winner. the rain came that day and Snedeker struggled with the course when others prospered, hard to forget that. Top ball strikers will go well here this week and if you ask the players, they will tell you that there is none better than Boo Weekley. The American showed his form by winning at another "ball strikers" course at Colonial, landing the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Sure, he doesnt strike you as a ready Major winner, but the track is right and the conditions wont worry him, besides, at 120 on Betfair, he is great value for a speculative play. My lively outsiders are; Peter Hanson 200 Carl Pettersson 320 And there are much worse 1000 shots than Jose Maria Olazabal who is almost back to his best and leaving driver in the bag will help him, he could feature for 3 days and give a nice back to lay opportunity. Finally, you will note at Merion this week that there are no pin flags. Tradition dictates that small wicker baskets replace flags on the metal poles ( flagsticks ). Should a players ball get stuck in the basket, the the local rule allows that player to place his ball on the rim of the cup as a free drop. Good luck |
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my bets to start are win bet Tiger and e/w Furyk and e/w Stricker
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David Howell and Robert Karlsson have been carefully selected to be my jackpot
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David Howell got a good chance if playing the course in the Sky Shot Centre
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cheers muppett,
think he has a history of back problems, thought he was worth a bet this week, stakes will be reduced ... !!! |
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Another big player brucewayne is Total Bosman. If i remember correctly the premium charge drove him to purple.
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everyone should go to purple, betfair is on its last legs
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i use purple, just here for forum
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id love to use purple all the time, but i do mainly pre match footy, and the money is just not there
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Far from the biggest, but yeah been purple only for nearly 2 years. Once you get used to it it's perfectly useable and I've found liquidity to definitely be growing. In terms of golf betting at least I see no reason why a PC payer would continue to bet here.
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Traded
Lee Westwood Justin Rose Bubba Watson David Lingmerth Scott Stallings Paul Lawrie Casey Wittenberg Jerry Kelly (lovely jubbly) Backed Michael Thompson Darren Clarke Morgan Hoffmann Matteo Manassero Steve Stricker Robert Karlsson Brandt Snedeker Rickie Fowler Ian Poulter Matt Kuchar Louis Oosthuizen Keegan Bradley Getting warmer, hoping the others will get matched tomorrow. |
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FFFFFFFFSSSSSS
Total Bosman • June 11, 2013 11:12 PM BST Far from the biggest, but yeah been purple only for nearly 2 years. Once you get used to it it's perfectly useable and I've found liquidity to definitely be growing. In terms of golf betting at least I see no reason why a PC payer would continue to bet here. I do use Purple but only to bet to win on Tiger and Rory. So far +£300 ish this year and it's all down to Tiger and he's covering for Rory.........Rory needs to return the favour. |
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Not a golf expert by any means but anyone share my thought that Justin Hicks just too big at 680?
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Agreed. Took some of the 690. 7th on Sunday the best finish of his career and top 20 in both driving accuracy and greens in regulation.
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ime at purple for this open,lay of the tiger.
bck. dufner mahan stenson b.watson haas z.johnson harrington weekley stallings poulter cabrera watney streelman olesen kaymer ogilvy palmer choi van pelt colsearts it resembles a store bill. |