Mar 5, 2014 -- 12:41PM, SHAPESHIFTER wrote:

re Scenario 2.It will leave you a net profit of £3 if you lose at the next step

great post, appreciate you taking the time to post that up

Mar 6, 2014 -- 1:21AM, Schalke 04 wrote:

PS, Shapeshifter, the bank increases more than 1% every "cycle"

How much does it increase?

Mar 6, 2014 -- 1:55AM, Trevh wrote:

your* twice :)It's a shame though because I think you're a classic example of someone who knows what they're doing selection wise, but simply doesn't understand the value concept. You concentrate on this silly staking system which means absolutely nothing in terms of getting ahead, while instead you could put all that wasted effort in to developing value methods. When that penny drops you will make it I reckon. Hope that doesn't sound patronising, I'm sure you'll disagree anyway :)

The one thing that I discovered over the past four years, not just here but in general, is a valuable commodity is 'time'.

I have two children, so the weekends are maxed out with them, their patients during the week of my schedule which with everything I do, betfair and in the real world, can be a 24 hour clock.

I especially value my time when betting and not only making it 'profitable' but the ROI on time spent is important.

But what I did that made it more enjoyable is taking the time to research the events and actually 'learn' more and more about the sports, the value, the betting.  More research, less time trading and less of a feeling of being a 'slave to the tick' which can eat your time (I day-traded the nasdaq for 18 months / $50,000 active at any one time.....)

The wonderful thing is from that time has come a platform that I have developed that allows me to research EVERY horse on EVERY race in a matter of minutes.  How many times do you look at the front three or four in the betting, stopping when you find the one you think will win only to have one at a great price a little further down come in?  How many times do you see a six runner race where two principles are fighting to be fave so you look at them only to see the fifth fave romp home, look a their form and see it was obvious?  I look at the races WITHOUT looking at the odds and do the entire field, narrow down three and do indepth...30 to 40 minutes a track.  From there.....2 to 3 bets and a list of horses to lay in-running (front runners to fade).

All built because of focus and what looks like a new venture to bring to the table.

schalke, you post so that you have the discipline.  But with the time spent over two + weeks if you could sit down and find some sport that you could master, even if it is finding a tennis match where you felt the 1.65 would atleast win the first set allowing a trade that would exceed some of the odds you have and get out.

As I said, time is a valuable commodity.

On that note, coffee finished.  Time to take on today's racing.

Mar 6, 2014 -- 9:51AM, SHAPESHIFTER wrote:

Mar  6, 2014 --  1:55AM, Trevh wrote:your* twice :)It's a shame though because I think you're a classic example of someone who knows what they're doing selection wise, but simply doesn't understand the value concept. You concentrate on this silly staking system which means absolutely nothing in terms of getting ahead, while instead you could put all that wasted effort in to developing value methods. When that penny drops you will make it I reckon. Hope that doesn't sound patronising, I'm sure you'll disagree anyway :)The one thing that I discovered over the past four years, not just here but in general, is a valuable commodity is 'time'.I have two children, so the weekends are maxed out with them, their patients during the week of my schedule which with everything I do, betfair and in the real world, can be a 24 hour clock.I especially value my time when betting and not only making it 'profitable' but the ROI on time spent is important. But what I did that made it more enjoyable is taking the time to research the events and actually 'learn' more and more about the sports, the value, the betting.  More research, less time trading and less of a feeling of being a 'slave to the tick' which can eat your time (I day-traded the nasdaq for 18 months / $50,000 active at any one time.....)The wonderful thing is from that time has come a platform that I have developed that allows me to research EVERY horse on EVERY race in a matter of minutes.  How many times do you look at the front three or four in the betting, stopping when you find the one you think will win only to have one at a great price a little further down come in?  How many times do you see a six runner race where two principles are fighting to be fave so you look at them only to see the fifth fave romp home, look a their form and see it was obvious?  I look at the races WITHOUT looking at the odds and do the entire field, narrow down three and do indepth...30 to 40 minutes a track.  From there.....2 to 3 bets and a list of horses to lay in-running (front runners to fade).All built because of focus and what looks like a new venture to bring to the table.schalke, you post so that you have the discipline.  But with the time spent over two + weeks if you could sit down and find some sport that you could master, even if it is finding a tennis match where you felt the 1.65 would atleast win the first set allowing a trade that would exceed some of the odds you have and get out.As I said, time is a valuable commodity.On that note, coffee finished.  Time to take on today's racing.

I do a lot of reseach into bets, but in this system I judge my selections on odds, time of events ... I do far too many bets to go with form, what I rely a lot on is the bookie pricing up favs for a reason, and the reason being is cause they are most likely to win.

Snooker is the sport I know most ... I am good with Tennis though, know a lot about Tennis, as you can see from my last bet I often do find VERY VERY good value winners ... as for trading, that is time, as you sit and watch the computer constantly, with this system I can place the bet I want and go do some work, come back when result is in. It's certainly interesting over time this system, if you are selective with your selections then I feel a run of 7 losers should NEVER come ... and if it does then a good profit shall have been made. Over time I feel this system will never make a loss

Mar 7, 2014 -- 12:05PM, SHAPESHIFTER wrote:

as for trading, that is time, as you sit and watch the computer constantly, with this system I can place the bet I want and go do some work, come back when result is in.With Tennis, the over-reaction is incredible on the markets until the pro's come in and sandwich the odds.  A friend of mine built an logarithm similar to one that I think djsunset and (I think) Tony used for cricket.  It was part of a thesis he worked on and he put the graph against the odds versus what the actual odds are. Panic makes people bet in-running in extraordinary ways.So why not find a bet at 1.70 for players that start strong, double your staking on the initial one, set the lay at 1.40 making .60 on your usual stake and walk away from the computer?  It takes 2-1 or 4-2 for that movement to be triggered. Or even base your math on 6 losses.  You need to value your time.Best of luck.....

Ive done it before, but as you say, very time consuming ... I am happy just doing this at the moment, want to see where this one end up, the last one I done £100 > £2500, so if this one were to go 25 fold I would be talking £25,000 .. GL to you to

Mar 7, 2014 -- 8:46PM, Do wah Diddy wrote:

SHALKE O4 YOUR BETFAIRS