Mar 4, 2014 -- 4:47PM, Schalke 04 wrote:

ShapeshifterIt's not happened to me yet doing this, yes there is a risk but as you will see over the next few months or longer very rarely do you get a run of losing bets ... the odds of this losing are over 2000/1

Okay, fair enough but, based on your 2000/1 odds, here is how it looks.

FACTS
- The bank increases 1% once a certain level is gained.  We will call this 'A step'
- A cycle will be defined as losing bet (or bets up to six bets) followed by a win
- Your bank is actually your Potential RISK which will increase 1% per Step
- The amount you 'bank' has no bearing otherwise psychologically good until you break even

So, that said:

THIS STEP

1) You have made £30.00 on one series and have now increased your bank by 1%
2) It took 17 cycles (a loss or losses followed by a win to recoup) to do this.
3) It took you two weeks to do this and 70+ bets

So, let's look at this:

SCENARIO 1 - beat the reaper:

Based on 2000/1, you will have around 117 steps before a streak of seven losses in a row.
(117 steps @ 17 cycles per =1998, one less than 2000/1)

At that point, if you cash in your chips, you will have
£6,700 at step 117

Based on your pace, this will take 234 weeks to achieve.

As of the next step, you risk losing 50% of your losses since your RISK based on 1% increases is now £3,500.

Thus, if you lost on step 118, your profit will be £13/week



SCENARIO 2 - Break-even

This is actually the only number to consider since you wrote that you have never lost seven in a row so, for you personally, it could come next week or in ten years or never.

So, like any investment of time, we only have the facts at hand:

The break even comes at 46 steps until the risk is less than the gains to date.

At that point, you would have made £1,741

Your Potential loss on the next step is £1,738 based on 1% increase.

At this pace, it will take 94 weeks to reach that point

This will leave a net profit of £3.00 for close to two years work.


SUMMARY:
Kelly: "Um, this doesn't excite me.  I honestly have no idea how to make the figures work.  So I have to declare myself out before you go any further."

Duncan: "You came in hear and valued this way over the top.  I can't see it ever working or be worthwhile.  I think your bonkers and, for that reason, I'm out"

Deborah: "I'll have to take Duncan's word for it that the numbers don't work since I certainly can't make heads or tails of it so I have to declare myself out" Note; re heads or tails, Deborah didn't realize she had made a gambling pun

Pierce: "Hi Shalke, I don't know if you know who I am but I've invested in everything from record labels to tech and have offices all over the world.  And all the figures and balance the risk against the return of a pint after two years, especially in a risky venture as you're undertaking, makes little sense to me so I wish you all the luck but I'm out."

Peter: (looking slightly perplexed with silly grin).  "You know, I thought the guy who brought in the million dollar bathtub was a looney.  But you just raised the bar to another level.  I see nothing but long hours, more than I can give and nothing in return.  I wish you all the luck in the world.....pause.... and luck is what this is all about so I need to say, all bets are off, I'm out and, again,  good luck"