andyl
26 Jul 11 23:09 Joined: 28 May 02 | Topic/replies: 454 | Blogger: andyl's blog
the magician 2 questions i want to put to you

1) the issue isn't whether premium charge is fair or not...it's the sheer amount one has to pay and the way its calculated taht makes it unfair...betfair win regardless...they take 40% of my gross earnings yet it is me who provides all the capital/risk...all the skills .....all the exes outlay

2) if i have a bad losing week/run like most gamblers do i am penalised heavily under this tax

3) betfair argue its because of players like me that is killing its avergae customers off....so why did they just dream this concept up to tax punters like me for winning >250k considering i never once paid or qualified to pay pcharge before

i tell you why GREED


in answer

QUESTION 1.
Economically Betfair have their costs and outlays also... they took ALL the risk of building the exchange, Mr Black and perhaps some investors would have been ‘broke’ if it did not work. Your financial commitment is weekly theirs is close to permanent.

I would assume your risk was minimal and only after you found an advantage did you bet more, and while you might risk 10K a race, when you are correct 60% of the time, it is not really a RISK.

Granted you have expenses, and the PC taxes you on Gross, not net income – and that might be a concern if they think you are valuable customer – but they have clearly decided, you are not – or at least you are not given your current rate of extraction vs income generated for them

Note; while I think the PC is good in principle, it could consider 1) annual rate rather than lifetime 2) do you make or take bets, there are several metrics that can consider the value a customer is to Betfair, and these SHOULD have provided part of the PC calculation

QUESTION 2
Order is important if you play for 1-2-3-4-5 weeks, but in the long run order is CLOSE to irrelevant. I presume PC2 payers – are consistent and as such they will play long term and this argument is LESS relevant.

But could have been better with longer periods of consideration.

QUESTION 3
I think you have to agree with them, as you indicate below that before you found FAST pictures you where a “mug” that couldn’t win

They know that and so do you – so on one hand I realise why you are not happy about the new tax, but on the other hand, you need to thank Betfair for;
a) their incompetence
b) lack of knowledge of their own markets,
c) inability or unwillingness to correct the circumstances that allow you to profit
d) and slowness of introicuding PC2

because all of that allowed you to keep so much for so long.

I think the issue with PC2 is that Betfair are saying to you, you can “mug” our customers IR if you split the proceeds with us.

What they should be doing is making IR level.... and perhaps now (as I am sure you have some skill to win even with FAST pictures) you also want a level playing field and more liquidity – more income.

Finally in a topic with many interwoven issues... do you think Betfair or their winning customers make more per year?

MAGICIAN,

thanks for your reply agree with some of what you say but the fundamental points as far as i am concerned are

1. Commission pricing structure needs reviewing.....historically the more you bet and lose the less you paid in comm rate...so being on 2.2% i pay less commission than a casual punter....but a far better pricing structure would have been to charge the more successful punters a higher rate than the less successful ones....thereby penalising those winning too quickly and subsidising the less fortunate losing accounts!!!

2. Premium charge - ok 20% may be sustainable but 40-50-60% is arguably not....and why should someone who is successful at betting be penalised...is this not a person to person betting exchange after all....no....betfair is turning or trying to turn itself from a betting exchange into a bookmaker hence all the cashback multiple ads etc...but its core customers do not want that and furthermore these 500 odd winning accounts are the equivalent of the accounts restricted or banned by HS bookmakers7

The charge should be calculated on annual profits (say last year) and be reviewed yearly and i do think as its nothing more than a HIGH END INCOME TAX you should be able to offset your income with work expenses

3. Making betting fairer for all - i agree and have always maintained any IR bettor worth is salt would prefer a level playing field than having an edge with less liquidity because if it comes down to skill the above average IR player will always do well in the long term while the newbie guy will be able to learn his trade without feeling someone his stealing his money through having an unfair time edge

but alas this is unlikely to happen in the short term

but one thing i am certain of is this current "scheme" penalises anyone who wins significantly either through being efficient in his betting or being good at it whether having an "edge" or not

there are many people who have excelled at betfair....many of whom have done through ir betting/trading and locking in profits/losses and the bulk of these could not have won through conventionally betting only (no laying) with a HS bookmaker

come to think of it magician give me a good reason why should anyone who just bets pre race or event now and does no trading bet with an exchange like BETFAIR .....because i do not believe you are getting 20% better value...for me i'm surely getting 40% worse!!!!

and when i win i don;t want big debits coming out my account each week....i wouldn't like to go to the races win a monkey and as i'm leaving the exit door the security staff take £200 for the racecourse!!!!

Andyl

everyone should make the best decision about where to place each bet they place...

if the 20-40-50-60% tax means your decision is no longer to place it on BF, then BF need to hope or KNOW, that that is fine by them.

I know it is tounge in cheak, but if people can make £500 a meeting and pay £200 as they leave - there will be a cue bigger than the X factor auditions for that job, and not one of them will complain about the £200.

27 Jul 11 12:39 Joined: 23 Aug 03 | Topic/replies: 2,194 | Blogger
The Magician (101)

how the money lost by losers is split in TOTALLY relevant


I agree with that statement entirely, Magician.  I suggested nothing about charity. They are perfectly justified in charging fairly for using their site.   I guess the free market will decide what's fair, in the long run.

market forces - over a million traded across the road on each race at Goodwood yesterday.

Hazel.



this thread is developing into a logical decent discussion, don't ruin it.

don't misslead - you know what that figure means...

like for like comparisons please - or you just lose credibility.

1.01 Layer

You challenged me asking about revenue split and said revenue split was totally irrelevant, then when I justified my position you agreed it was totally relevant – that is a reversal for me :o)

Anyway agree – cost for most people to bet on Purple is minimal in terms of placing bets....

Is it minimal in terms of getting bets MATCHED?

Market forces will decide.

Magician I am sorry you feel that way.  There may be differences in calculating volume (remember short prices inflate betfair volumes), but there is no doubt that volumes and the ability to match bets across the road has increased significantly and sufficiently.  If you dont like that then I am sorry.

why pay 60% here when you can make 50% elsewhere?

Magician, I see.  I was only picking up on your statement   ... do you think Betfair or their winning customers make more per year?

Re matching bets over there, I'd rather give away a few ticks and pay 2.5%.  No trouble getting matched on the cricket there now.  Just a shame there aren't more markets.

Hazel

I love improving volumes on Purple. I have been betting there for nearly 2 years.

I just think you should be honest about the levels - especially as it is now obvious you knew your post was (deliberately) misleading.

magician my post was factual.  It was not meant to be deliberately misleading.

no problem getting my bets matched 30 percent increase in bank in 2 weeks quite happy
reminds me of the days I started on here with 36 quid!!!! and built up a nice bank

likewise very profitable on here (as long as chelsea stop messing around and score a few goals)
the problem is when people realise they can get decent prices on some footy matches etc and pay less for the privilege.......
I do wish bf would retract the charges and or  change them as it will hurt the ordinary punter

magician at post time for 2.00 goodwood - 
betfair showed £882,000 and the other one was £1,120,000

accepting that both calculate differently, it would appear that there is a shift occurring.

while comparing apples (BF) and oranges (BD) is tricky - if the number of oranges traded are increasing - then I am sure **** are happy

you could compare like for like...

last time I did that it was 92/8 more or less

why are my posts duplicated - they are not that good LOL

300k on BD when the top two in the market are around 6/4 v 500k on BF is significant for sure

Magician your 92/8 figure seems right to me.
What was it a year or two ago ?

RAPS

1) I did not compare for significant periods
2) I did not compare significant number of races

so that info could have had sample bias

but it was 2 years ago and similar again about 1 year ago when I did it... I think it ticked up a little.

you can compare it perfectly if you want, I should do it....

TRADED / QUASI SELF MATCHED etc is hard to strip out

yeah seems like everyone is falling for matched bets totals that are 6/1 in favor for greyhound races and 1o/1 plus for horses races on bd, thats a poor market for the big guys to want to win in, betfair is still going to be there bread and butter for a long time yet, how long though is a question that probably both companies boardrooms will be hotly debating!