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Reflections on making £200,000 profit in 7-and-a-bit years
Reflections on making £200,000 profit in 7-and-a-bit years
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Replies: 375
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Yes, I take your point.
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For me it would be preferable to lose 15% of the bank in 2 months than to break even over 6 months.
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screaming from beneaththewaves Date Joined: 30 Jan 05 Add contact | Send message When: 06 May 11 10:22 Joined: Date Joined: 30 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 2,395 | Blogger: screaming from beneaththewaves's blog The Investor 05 May 11 23:57 Trevh Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 Add contact | Send message When: 05 May 11 16:20 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 | Topic/replies: 929 | Blogger: Trevh's blog I seem to recall that Dr J is a fanatical proponent of the new religion that is man made global warming theory, in which case I wouldn't trust a word he asays. How is that relevant? Publicizing outlandish claims to general approval while hiding from scrutiny the data on which they were based and the methods by which they were reached? I still don't get it. Are you saying that because some people lied, anyone that supports the theory is not trustworthy? I think it's common knowledge that this happened, it was even a news item. |
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I think it's common knowledge that this happened, it was even a news item. I'm referring to the dodgy data.
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No, Investor. You asked how Trevh's comment is relevant. I pointed out how I found it relevant.
I'd never come across Dr J before this thread, so I have no idea what his personal views might be on the weather lately. But I do find it hard to respect anyone who is a fanatical proponent of anything, never mind someone who claims to know the future course of something as poorly understood as long-range weather. I don't distrust such people outright, but I am a little more sceptical than usual if one of them starts a thread outlining his remarkable forecasting ability. |
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Hello there Mythical Prince
You state "also before people disparage me as a bitter and twisted loser- which I probably am" ,but you seem to have a good understanding of the things required to make a profit and a good knowledge of the workings and intricacies of betfair. You're persistant posts are clearing trying to deceive people into this "bitter and twisted loser" perception. I'm afraid that i simply don't believe that you are a betfair loser, and if you look closely it is clear that you are in fact a serial winner who is masquerading as someone who loses and doesn't trust people who win. If you could simply post your profit and losses summary sheet for the last 3 months showing that you have in fact lost over this time period and not won then that would help lend some credibility to your case. Many thanks. |
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why dont you post your p an l? i'm quite a lot down over the last few months. and loads down on betfair and gambling in general over my lifetime. i'm glad that makes you happy. i'm simply an addicted gambler who refuses to give up. won't be the first, and won't be the last.
but this wasn't really about me, was it? the thing I don't like about this thread, to be honest, is the way people are so keen to congratulate the original poster, despite as I said him not really saying anything particularly insightful. its the ingratiating bum-licking I can't stand. or maybe i'm just jealous [smiley:crazy] |
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Hi all.
A few points i would like to make on this thread. im well known on the crayon munching forum as being slanted towards bookmakers, as i ve grown up in the game and not known anything elese, never worked outside the industry other than to attend (and thats all i did) University - Id like to give my opinion on this thread. First off, upoun first reading this reminded me a lot of the Elliot Short story the NoW ran, which according to most within the industry was nothing more than a cheap splashline to franchise as many red top reading mugs as possible and wean them off the high street into the on line market. As the Share Price of Betfair is falling like a stone, the sceptic in me questions the validity of the OP and moreover why would someone want to post about ther profits when knowing it would ultimately develop into a thread where justification and proof would be needed to stop the mud slinging (however refind). My Main gripe is this.... The OP states his edge is laying horses he feels cant win at the lowest possible price. For me there is not a man i ve met in my 15 years in the industry (that includes the ring, the flaps, the trading room, mingling with whales and sharp alike) that has this skill. Only a select few can continually pick off lines and prices when the market is mature and the ability to trade in big sums (like the OP profits) exist. These people i know put days of study in, mixed in with information from stables, jockeys , valets etc (and moreover pure information, not the chinese variety that infests the industry) These people however find ther edge in finding horses the feel are overprices and back them accordingly in relation to how much % edge they have (much like the asian syndicaites at the football)and will always beat the BFSP to 100% The thought of someone dripping into a market through a few hours of partime study making a constant profit is very plausible, esp early morning where overbroke books exist - but for someone to be making large profits on specially selected lays into a mature market where he has no idea where or when the price will bottom intrigues me. I could go on but im more used to one line dry comments on the horseracing forum, thus my finges are numb. I am a sceptic Dr J but will tip my hat accordingling if you can show me or even spell out how you manage constantly to find the bottom of a specific selection on a specific market (through a few hours of work) to large stakes. Better than that i ll probably offer you a job (that would pay much more than your quoted figures.) Apologies for any speling mistakes. |
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I don't think he has said he lays at the lowest price traded. I think what he said was that he finds out which horses he will lay and then try to lay them as low as possible.
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I am a sceptic Dr J but will tip my hat accordingling if you can show me or even spell out how you manage constantly to find the bottom of a specific selection on a specific market (through a few hours of work) to large stakes
Corbiewood - He's not trying to prove anything to you, he's just reflecting on his efforts after hitting a personal milestone. Seriously guys, this story shouldn't be unbelievable and isn't unique. Still totally baffled that the OP is getting questioned over this, especially as he's listed every monthly p&l since he started. Could he have made these figures up? Of course, but honestly, why would he bother? |
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corbiewood, not quite Elliot Short, hes £10k up each of the last 4 years, hardly, what was it, £20m in a year!!!
If hes lying, then its a boring lie, if he suggests a blog/tweet or website i'll just ignore the thread. More interested in peoples comments like yourself writing about his £200k, usually ending with a tell me how you do it tempter  Maybe some have made x10 what he has, whilst working a full time job, with a young family just doing BF weekends and lunchbreaks in a internet cafe. I could believe that! How many betfair millionaires do you think there are corbiewood? |
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Just like the old days
a good old 'IT CANNOT BE DONE' thread good luck for the remainder of this year Dr J |
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By my estimations if according to Betfair
2% of account holders make over £15,000 a year then approximately 1% make over £25,000 a year 0.1% make over £50,000 a year 0.01% make over £75,000 a year 0.001% make over £100,000 a year |
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Look what you've started Dr J, may i ask did you get a similar responce when you posted your 100k profit thread? Amazing how folk have come to the conclusion that you lay IR and put in multi lays in the same race, didn't read any of that in your opening post!
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Thanks buzzer.
And thanks U.A., even if your brilliant sarcasm was completely lost on Mr Prince... corbiewood, are you serious when you write: "As the Share Price of Betfair is falling like a stone, the sceptic in me questions the validity of the OP"? |
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How did u do today Dr J?
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Look what you've started Dr J, may i ask did you get a similar responce when you posted your 100k profit thread?
Sort of, stewarts. Or, at least, I stopped checking the thread once the productive dialogue stopped. To be honest, I still don't think it's such a big deal. As Mordin points out, there must be punters making a hell of a lot more than I am. My average weekly profit over the last three years has been £200. Don't get me wrong, I'm delighted with that, but for the hours of form studentry I put it I don't think it's an unbelievable sum. Anyway, must go now - I have a tipping line, subscription blog and premium rate twitter feed to get off the ground...  |
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How did u do today Dr J?
Horse Racing: -£1,403.21 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£1,403.21 I didn't think Uncle Junior would be up to winning that handicap at Punchestown, but I was wrong. Loved seeing Hurricane Fly and St. Nicholas Abbey at their best though. You? |
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Horse Racing: £218.84 | Tote: | Total P&L: £218.84
We have a lot in common both in Education, trade part time and have made £360,000 between us. Could you not have reduced liability on Uncle Junior by backing it back in play it looked beat at times?? |
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I try to reserve in-running bets for emergencies. The fast-pictures boys will always have an edge on me.
I assume you're not Nick Mordin then? |
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No put admire the effort he makes and the quality of his writing though I havent read his Weekender articles for a few years.
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Mordin.
Date Joined: 10 Dec 01 Add contact | Send message When: 06 May 11 22:10 Joined: Date Joined: 10 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 376 | Blogger: Mordin.'s blog By my estimations if according to Betfair 2% of account holders make over £15,000 a year then approximately 1% make over £25,000 a year 0.1% make over £50,000 a year 0.01% make over £75,000 a year 0.001% make over £100,000 a year That's way out I would say. 0.001% over 650,000 active accounts is '6.5' people making £100k+. There should be hundreds imo. |
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A really interesting stat to get hold of would be to take all accounts in lifetime profit, and see how this is split between profitable accounts. You'd probably find that the top 0.1% of accounts make more than 50% of the total profit or something similarly extreme.
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For any doubters out there, the 88 months match up pretty closely to the expected results using an analysis of Benford's law.
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2009/03/benfords-law.html or maybe i'm just jealous Yep - maybe. |
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Eddie the eagle Joined: 01 Feb 04
Replies: 3066 06 May 11 20:37 I don't think he has said he lays at the lowest price traded. I think what he said was that he finds out which horses he will lay and then try to lay them as low as possible. Granted. But for any edge to exist he needs to continually fnde bottom of the selection / market with laying to large stakes for any % edge to yeild. Its all fine nd well laying a horse 1.67 thats been 1.51andgttg it beat. No edge in that and through the 7 years this will have fund him o especially to these stakes. |
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my keyboard is a disgrace, appologies for the missing letters etc.
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ffs * found him out
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Dr J 06 May 11 22:24
Look what you've started Dr J, may i ask did you get a similar responce when you posted your 100k profit thread? Sort of, stewarts. Or, at least, I stopped checking the thread once the productive dialogue stopped. Well done on managing to check the thread having stopped checking the thread. |
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But for any edge to exist he needs to continually fnde bottom of the selection / market with laying to large stakes for any % edge to yeild. Its all fine nd well laying a horse 1.67 thats been 1.51andgttg it beat. No edge in that and through the 7 years this will have fund him o especially to these stakes.
I'm not sure I agree with this, corbiewood. If the horse is a good-value lay at 1.67, what does it matter if it previously traded at 1.51? Or 1.15 for that matter? The point you keep making about laying at 'bottom' price is, as other contributed have noted, a red herring. It's not something I do, or have ever claimed to do, and I agree that it's an almost impossible skill to acquire. |
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DR J - If you were laying in win market on say 335 races that you specialise in........how many points would you expect to win in total from the market you tackle.
( Just trying to compare against some test results using my "system" stats and applying certain strategies to selected races.......where 159 points in win market and 78 points in place market appear to be achievable from 335 races checked) I know this is a crude question....but an answer would be appreciated. |
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The ROI approximates 3% on win lays at BF SP.......over the 335 races ...
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I checked out the first digit for my weekly GP over roughly the past 185 weeks, and get this result:
1 28.11% 2 15.68% 3 12.43% 4 10.81% 5 7.57% 6 4.86% 7 6.49% 8 7.03% 9 7.03% Almost exactly as expected for 1-5 but not so much for the higher digits. |
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Of course there will be people making a very stable consistent profit too, making perhaps £3-4k a month with little variation up or down.
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Sorry to see how this thread has 'developed'. Thanks for bothering in the first place, Dr J.
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The Investor - your results are to be expected. 185 is a low sample, and the higher numbers will occur even less. Try it with your daily totals. You'll find the results even more in line with expectations.
My numbers two years ago were: 1 30.1% (Expected 30.1%) 2 15.3% (17.6%) 3 12.8% (12.5%) 4 10.5% (9.7%) 5 7.8% (7.9%) 6 6.6% (6.7%) 7 5.8% (5.8%) 8 6.1% (5.1%) 9 4.9% (4.6%) |
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Over 1220 active days I get this:
1 27.54% 2 18.69% 3 14.59% 4 9.34% 5 7.95% 6 6.48% 7 6.15% 8 5.00% 9 4.26% Days where profit is between -1 and 1 (first digit zero) are not counted. |
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I should use the next digit of course, but ignoring them was simpler.
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How can the leading significant digit be zero?!! Please pay attention Mr. Investor! Anyway, your numbers and mine pretty solidly confirm the law.
Meaningless perhaps, but I found it interesting. |
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For what it is worth Dr J I believe every word you have written. Well done and keep up the good work.
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hi all,since reading this post ive looked for edge in every race ive participated in[by doing me homework in the rp about 4hours a day],me betfair pot has been rising steadily ,yesterday £94 up[im over the moon with that],thanks dr j for puttin this up,you will find im contributing to the lay of the day thread by knight commander me lay bets have improved a vast amount.laptop boys at the tracks will allways have a main edge over any of us and crooked jockeys,gl all
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