I wish.

It's that other job I'm focussing on today.

Chasing is a bit like being pregnant though. You either are or you aren't.

Interesting analogy, considering you could've said absolutely anything.

yes your right, you will be dead before your edge is proved

I dont yet claim to have this 'edge' - but I have applied my 'system' to 74,000 events over 9 years - so far I would say its possible that it is an 'edge' - similar to you and Dr J, it has not been totally proven imo - also I am happy to realise only 3% roi - and at that margin I need the high number of events to make it pay.

Hello there birch2.

You say "The way I see it, is that by having a proven 'edge', it is an absolute guarantee that you will show a profit"

I'm not sure what you mean, it seems to me that this sentence is incomplete. An absolute guarantee that you will show a profit what? Over the next 76 games, for the next year? I assume that you are referring to something to do with future betting activities but not sure.

Also if you are there seems to be an implication that if you have an edge it will never ever disappear, otherwise you would not be able to give such a guarantee.

Please can you clarify for me.

Hello there UA

Firstly, if you have a genuine/proven 'edge' it will never disappear, whilst all elements to the system that creates this edge remain constant

As nothing remains the same forever, racinguru is quite correct when he refers to 'developing to keep ahead of the curve'

Secondly, the only thing that is incomplete is time/number of events bet on. In that, like the roulette wheel, after 10 spins the 'bank' may be on a heavy loss - after 2000 spins, the 'bank' may still be losing - but after 100,000 spins you will make a profit. Thats what I mean by gaurantee.

Rowever, if you had a 3% edge on anything, you would want to have it going 24/7 to eternity

screaming from beneaththewaves
Date Joined: 30 Jan 05
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When: 21 Apr 11 22:24
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Dr J only gave us one teasing hint of the edge which delivers these fantastic, part-time profits, but it was enough to convince me he's the genuine article:

I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price.

With that depth of originality and lateral thinking he clearly has an edge which leaves the rest of us with no chance.

^ my thoughts exactly.

it amazes me how gullible people are. people are falling over themselves to congratulate the original poster, yet he offers no real insight as to how he's made these huge profits. a lot of mis-guided bum-licking on this thread, but then thats the deluded betfair forum for you.

Any edge in the markets only exists because there is an inefficiency, and will not last forever. The edge may be 'proven' one day, and 'proven' to be gone the next day. However, in markets, as in plate tectonics, as one edge closes, another one may open. 100,000 trials in the context of sports betting is nuts. At 20 bets a day, it would be close to 14 years before you had that number of bets, and to say that the markets might have changed in that time would be putting it mildly. And if you have a system that produces 20 value bets a day, you should be living in the Cayman Islands long before 14 years has passed by applying Kelly.

what is this mystery job that stops him going full time?

As I said above, I don't want to be full-time. I admire those who do it, but don't feel it would work for me. Also, I like my job a lot (I work in education) and enjoy the contrast it provides with my betting activity. I'd like my gravestone to be inscribed with something more than 'here lays one who optimised his profits'...

In almost every market you'll find on Betfair, someone is making money systematically (not by luck).

birch2

Any edge in the markets only exists because there is an inefficiency,

you need to think a bit deeper than this  - I've run my system over 74000 markets - very few are inefficient


Considering few or any Betfair markets are actually static inefficient markets will continually crop up, maybe your  system's looking at the wrong time.

I thought he'd already explained he's a mainly a horse race layer, mythical prince , so unless you want him to explain how to form read I doubt you'll have much luck.

which to me explains nothing about your betting strategy. to me this looks a thinly vieled "ooo look at me and all the money i've won, and whats more i've done it as an amateur!" thread.

Thinly veiled "I wish I could do what Dr J has done. Why won't he tell me how he does it so that I can turn a profit too?" comment.

The OP came across as genuine and somewhat humble, but he's hardly going to give away the keys to the safe. The point is that is is very possible to make a good second income from the exchanges as a part-timer, and for many people going full-time would not result in a bigger total income.

Don't tell birch2 - after testing in 74000 markets, 26000 short of the minimum needed, (so we are told...), the last thing he wants to hear is that his system needs some work. It is us who need to "think a bit deeper than this".

The sums Dr J is making are certainly achievable part-time in the time-frame mentioned. He's a layer, not a backer - that was what he meant by his quote about laying at the best possible price. It may have been superfluous to add "at the lowest possible price" but to get caught up in semantics means you are rather missing the point of his post.

Interesting thread
In relation to 'having an edge' on betfair I doubt that very much.
Maybe a systematic approach in creating value over time is possible
but it can be a false dawn what a 'gamblers mind' leads him to believe!
You are up against back-propagating networks so have to become evermore
innovative in your strategy to break down or find value.

This whole thread is uncannily reminiscent of the van der Wheil letters which occupied the Forum page of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book 30 years ago.

Van der Wheil was a character invented probably by a reader, but possibly by the editor of the Forum page itself, who sent occasional, articulate letters in which he gradually revealed himself as an erudite gentleman whose hobby of horse racing gave him sumptuous, long-term punting profits.

Over the course of a decade he built up a huge following of breathless acolytes who worshipped his achievements, subjected his every word to exegetic analysis and tremblingly offered their own meagre successes in supplication to the great man, the "Flying Dutchman". (I think he turned out to be a bored punter from Market Harborough in the end).

In "van der Wheil's" defence, his inventor did put in some work and did offer some formulas which explained his "success", e.g. ratings based on prize money won, percentages of winners derived from previous form figures, so the exercise wasn't a complete waste of time. But crucially his followers identified a "missing link" which, if only they could divine it, would lead them to van der Wheil's life of leisure and luxury.

If only VDW could have seen this thread, and how easily Dr J has hooked a whole lake full of disciples, he surely would never have devoted so much effort to the hoax.

screaming from beneaththewaves
and how easily Dr J has hooked a whole lake full of disciples


just a few who think hes done ok really. im sure more than a few have won similar or more than him, so hardly disciples.

im sure more than a few have won similar or more than him

For sure.

Last year, my average monthly profit was £600. That puts me barely above minimum wage assuming a three-hour daily investement of time!

theres plenty of people on here who's story I believe when they are claiming to make big sums (like the investor for example) but theres something about this guy that doesn't ring true. call me a natural cynic.

For example i'm baffled when plenty on here are saying this is one of the best threads they've ever read, yet he offers nothing profound in the way of insights on how to be a successful gambler, beyond the usual cliches.

When he says that he tries very hard to end every month ahead that doesn't strike me as the modus operandi of a long-term winner, more one of a chaser. also hilarious little gems like "I treat betfair as a video game" just make me think more and more this guy's on a wind-up.

dr j can end all this debate by posting up his last three months p and l. then again it could be doctored, but at least we'll have known he'd have put some effort into this ruse [;)]

why don't you though?[;)]