I dont know why people are so affraid of success.

I would have believed you.

I know of 6 people who have made in excess of £2m in 10 yrs on Bf.

The problem is - writing about it. There is little to really gain - and lots to lose.

The only major thing I really regret, is that, the early 'winners' on Bf, have and probably
will never be given the place in the sun, they rightly deserve.

Some of the intellectual property developed in the first 3 yrs, has never been written about,
and thats a shame.

Its sad I have to end on a defensive note .. but for the trolls - if anyone doubts you can make
£2m, I have yr by yr records, showing every bet. One yr, I made £600k. If anyone wants to verify the
data - and the file is 58000 lines of excel, it will cost u £10k.

[i]I've always been a big advocate of having a proper income away from betting as it takes the pressure off having to win, like a salesman who has a basic salary and doesn't have to rely on commision alone.
[/i]

I'm not disagreeing that having another source of income takes the pressure off, but I've also thought that great people don't become great without dedicating 100% to their chosen profession e.g. Musicians etc.

I suspect that Gambling is the same.  We can all grind out small edges and be profitable over time, but to be truely get to the top only those giving everything will succeed.

Hilarous screaming. Brings back similar memories.

Blackjack was almost identical. Some of the stories I've told and heard told were brilliant. The guy I know who gambled away his in heritance was hilarious (Given that I knew he was winning a fortune).
All the dealers feeling sorry for him and slaggging him off behind his back while he's raking in the cash

Sadly with the poker boom a lot of the character went out of the industry, and I'm sure it's the same in the horse racing game.
Some great aspects to the new way of doing things, but I was always a sucker for listening and watching people doing their thing and telling their stories the old way.

Some of the racecourse bookies played the same game.

One West Country layer once spent the entire hour and a half it took him to give me a lift back from Hereford listing every losing race he'd ever suffered, every near-miss, every inspired gamble that had floored him, every shrewdie who had out-thought him, every paddock negative which had hosed up.

"D'you know something? I've been unlucky me whole life."

I sympathized as I settled deeper into the leather upholstery of the gigantic Merc he was driving and thought about the acres to which he was returning and the string of racehorses he had owned and bred.

A losing month is not inevitable for everyone.
There are people that make a profit every month without exception, although in my opinion many of them are not taking on an optimal level of risk.

A losing month is not inevitable for everyone.
There are people that make a profit every month without exception, although in my opinion many of them are not taking on an optimal level of risk.

Spot on!....over 40 years of punting & I'm still timid

themanmarcus - not smugness, more self criticism. I make consistent profit from trading but I'm happy to admit that if I was an outright backer/layer I would likely make considerable more dosh, I see the figures its just that I'm not happy working it that way which is why I identified with The Investor's post - hats off to the OP!

Me too, but how on earth to you find your optimal level of risk? Nice words as they are, but how do they cater for outages for example?

Sorry to go back so far on the thread but I thought this post was one of the most important:

These days, I select my races first thing in the morning, bet on them intermittently, and switch off my computer when the last one finishes. It definitely suits me better.

That's not discipline that is a skill in itself and can't be taught. It's like the person in the office coming in at weekends to do extra hours, they're impressing no one and getting nothing extra for but it makes them feel involved. Have your bet and walk away should always be the way.

Just Checking - Yes, the hours are antisocial but 10 years ago I used to be a Cinema Manager with weekend finishes of 3am.  Sometimes there would be a 2pm start the next day so you don't get much antisocial than that.

You need to dedicate yourself to betting full-time to make the really decent money. Patience, discipline allied to a value approach and contrarian angles is for me the secret to decent profits, always investigating and exploiting angles the crowd doesn't consider...great stuff Dr J...hope your good run continues and you post up some more on your progress.

The main reason to give up a job and gamble full time is to wangle out of doing an honest day's work.

MANY DREAMERS ON THIS THREAD

A footnote to the above...

I penned the OP when I was about £3.5k in profit for April and had therefore pushed my all-time profit over £200k with over £1k to spare. I was premature. The final few days of April were a nightmare for me (possible reasons to follow) and I ended the month £5.5k down. It hurts because I've staked a great deal of emotional capital on building up a run of consecutive winning months. April should have my 11th. Now I'm back to zero.

What went wrong was a cocktail of misfortune and complacency (which is basically what's gone wrong whenever anyone has had a bad run, ever, so it's probably a very studid thing to type.). The misfortune involved a matter of milimetres (in race after race) over a three day period. The complacency involved continuing to bet when I probably should have taken a day off. I don't think I was chasing losses, but for all my platitudes about discipline becoming a habit, I was still vulnerable to going in heavier than I should. Petit Margot's win at Ayr cost me several thousand pounds (though I was still able to raise a glass to the old mare a few hours later - it's not the first time she's confounded me).

I've made a good start to May and am aiming to break the £200k milestone (again) very soon. I'll post my year-end stats in December for anyone who's interested.

(cpfc4me - I've only had a quick skim of your blog so far, but it looks terrific. Thanks for the link.)

Seems your edge is not as scientific as I first thought Dr J - these '2 losing months' also got me thinking................ !!

Commend you on your honesty in your last post and no doubt you have something.....

but I now see a real weakness - and maybe you have to convince that your edge has been tested sufficiently over enough events

However, hope you hit the £300K and all the best for the future.

And July / August 2010 was the first and only time I had two consecutive losing months.

Yeah, I got my PC down from £8k in 2009 to £1k in 2010.

Paid £3.4k in Jan 2011 though, as I had an amazing month, then had a big loss in Feb and small profit in March.

For the first quarter I paid 95% of GP in commission and a further 71% in PC, so Betfair got 166% of my profit.
Ended up -£3k on Betfair and +£6k with other bookies for a £3k profit overall for the quarter.

For Q1 2011
GP      Comm    PC
£4,768    £4,531    £3,383

On another thread I recently wrote about how I had managed to wipe out three months worth of average profit in one race.  A bad choice of bet in the first place, followed by an error, followed by inaction (I could have traded out of a dreadful position but didn't).  I have noticed since then that my betting activity has been abnormally high.  Am I chasing? Perhaps. A bit.

The worst thing about keeping note of good betting runs is that we are setting up artificial hurdles for ourselves.  We are creating a difficulty that should not exist.  If I am getting close to a personal best run of correct lays the urge to beat that total becomes a factor in choosing my next selection. It should not be.  If I am getting close to a nice round number in terms of profit such as £200K ( I wish ) again it affects my judgement where it never should.

Similarly with setbacks like the one I recently had.  Something in the back of my mind tells me that I don't deserve to be in this position as it was an abnormal action that put me there.  I deserve to be back on track.  This is foolish thinking and leads to foolish betting.

The thing to do of course is to treat each and every bet on its own merits.  To heck with running totals.  To heck with good and bad runs.  They are problem makers, not problem solvers.

Easier said than done though.

Just out of interest have you noticed any repeating patterns on months you do well in and months you do poorly in.

Yes, and I've been silly to overlook these patterns. Springtime is always my difficult period and April the cruelest month. I suspect the start of the flat season catches me off guard. When a horse hasn't run for a few months, inside info becomes exponentially more valuable and form studentship less so. I need to bet less at the time of year, maybe take a holiday.

but I now see a real weakness - and maybe you have to convince that your edge has been tested sufficiently over enough events

Well, it's one losing month, not two, and it's my first losing month since May of last year. So I'm not going to panic just yet!

Your broader point is well made though. 7.5 years probably isn't long enough to convince that at edge is bombproof. But how long is?

It is always difficult to clear milestones.

I bloody hate milestones. They really mess with your head. It's completely irrational to change the way you bet simply because you have one lurking, but I know that's what I always do!

Am I chasing? Perhaps. A bit.

Sorry to hear about your big loss, topnag1.

Chasing is a bit like being pregnant though. You either are or you aren't. And it sounds like you are, if you don't mind my saying.

The worst thing about keeping note of good betting runs is that we are setting up artificial hurdles for ourselves.  We are creating a difficulty that should not exist.

Fascinating logic, and pleasingly contrarian. The accepted wisdom is that record-keeping is essential to successful punting, but maybe there are times when we focus too much on meaningless targets, milestones and personal bests?

Something in the back of my mind tells me that I don't deserve to be in this position as it was an abnormal action that put me there.  I deserve to be back on track.  This is foolish thinking and leads to foolish betting.

With that kind of self-awareness you're likely to be back making good profits very soon, imo. The killer word is 'deserve'. None of us think we deserve bad luck. The danger comes when you start expecting the Gods of Fortune to redress the balance, like you're somehow 'owed' a nice pay-out. It may seem daft for any serious gambler to ever contemplate thinking this way, but there's a little part of it in all of us, I reckon.

To heck with running totals.  To heck with good and bad runs.  They are problem makers, not problem solvers.