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Reflections on making £200,000 profit in 7-and-a-bit years
Reflections on making £200,000 profit in 7-and-a-bit years
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Replies: 375
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Why should he ? Natural cynics will just say they may have been doctored....
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screaming from beneaththewaves, don't agree, but great prose though. Especially this part:
Over the course of a decade he built up a huge following of breathless acolytes who worshipped his achievements, subjected his every word to exegetic analysis and tremblingly offered their own meagre successes in supplication to the great man, the "Flying Dutchman". (I think he turned out to be a bored punter from Market Harborough in the end).  |
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When he says that he tries very hard to end every month ahead that doesn't strike me as the modus operandi of a long-term winner, more one of a chaser. also hilarious little gems like "I treat betfair as a video game" just make me think more and more this guy's on a wind-up.
This must be why I believe him - I have the same way of thinking on both points. |
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investor have u ever had a issue with chasing/losing discipline with your betting
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Having read this whole thread I conclude it is a wind up. I can't believe so many people believe the opening poster has actually won! He is clueless.
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But he hasnt actually won that much, why is it so unreasonable, just because you cant win that much or because he doesnt reveal his edge?
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I seem to recall that Dr J is a fanatical proponent of the new religion that is man made global warming theory, in which case I wouldn't trust a word he says.
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Dr J's posts and his numbers seem credible imo.
This thread reminds me of last year, when Fine As Frogs Hair used to regularly post on this forum - there were lots of threads like this one and FAFH would take on the role of chief investigator, holding a late night spanish inquisition to get to the bottom of them (before eventually losing his temper)! I have a slight concern that Lori took a contract out on him but more likely FAFH is cruising the world in his yacht. We need FAFH to finish his world cruise and get back on here with his searching and demanding questions Never thought I would say this - but where are you Froggy? - Come back! - the GB forum needs you! |
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Come to think of it, i think FAFH might have been from Market Harborough (obviously that would have been before he moved to the Carribean!)
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What ever did happen to FAFH. He just suddenly disappeared.
Management - if there is some kind of questioning technique that you are missing or feel deprived of please by all means feel free to take on that role yourself. But please, please don't wish or even ask FAFH to come back again. Ever. |
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lol U.A. - I had a love/hate relationship with him, he bothered me immensely when he first started to post but over time I grew to enjoy his contributions and found him entertaining. It always ended the same way - after FAFH had done his best to encourage the "winner" to divulge his "system" (and failed), he would lose his temper and throw his toys out of the pram and profess that it couldn't be done!
Maybe I have a sick sense of humour - but I felt it was my role to give him some mild encouragement to lose his temper. Happy days! I miss him and despite the predictable outcome of all those threads, he did quite often stimulate either an interesting or an entertaining discussion. |
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asked a friend whos won and lost a lot of money on betfair over the years, about this post. his reply was:
"definitely bollocks. 200k winners wouldn't mess with the forum. sounds like a dreamer with munchausen's syndrome" |
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mythical prince,
I'd leave it if I were you. You're just embarrassing yourself. |
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McChicken_Sandwich
It's hardly an unbelievable figure, 200k in 7 years. Obviously some are convinced that it's barely possible, and that says more about them than the OP. Couldn't agree more McChicken, vast sums flow through the exchange everyday surely people don't believe it all ends up in Betfair's pockets. Although now mp's thrown in a few seeds of doubt I'm beginning to believe he might not even be a real doctor. |
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greedkillsmybankagain
Date Joined: 19 Jan 11 Add contact | Send message When: 05 May 11 14:45 Joined: Date Joined: 19 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 898 | Blogger: greedkillsmybankagain's blog investor have u ever had a issue with chasing/losing discipline with your betting No. except on a very subtle level. I've sometimes been too eager to continue trading both sides after building up a big losing position, rather than focusing 100% on getting out. I also find myself too eager to lock in a profit when I am more or less breakeven on one side and massively green on the other. In terms of losing a lot on one bet / match and then risking more than normal immediately after, I've never done that, and probably never will, unless it's some kind of mistake. Trevh Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 Add contact | Send message When: 05 May 11 16:20 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 | Topic/replies: 929 | Blogger: Trevh's blog I seem to recall that Dr J is a fanatical proponent of the new religion that is man made global warming theory, in which case I wouldn't trust a word he asays. How is that relevant? |
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if embarrasing myself involves exposing frauds like this guy, i'm quite happy to be embarrased on a regular basis.
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Only time I'd know for sure he was a fraud was if he started to explain exactley how he made the money, mythical prince.
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wouldn't it be a big deal to post his p an l for the last three months? then we'd put this all to bed? but I think he might have a good reason not to do so.
as I said, i'm just a natural cynic. I can see how that can rub people up the wrong way. but in my experience people who are making decent sums don't feel the need to come and brag about it on the forum. also one other thing I don't really get- he claims to barely have a losing month- then says he is a layer. not being a layer myself i'm not massively informed on the subject but my guess would be you could have horrendous losing runs- where lay after lay comes in- however good your form study is- and unless you chase (exposing yourself to even bigger losses) it seems highly likely that you'll have several losing months. |
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MP - If he/she did post their P & L a/c ......it would show what types of races he/she specializes in..........therefore it is quite understandable they would not post P &L ....etc etc etc
If they did.....then would be pretty daft to do so ! |
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As they are also MULTIPLE laying in races, the "run" you believe would be "horrendous" is less likely to be so damaging.....
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fair enough, although he could just post the basic figure.
its just the hardly ever losing months I don't get- reading between the lines I get the impression that he claims to be an out and out gambler who lays horses using the form book. even if youre up over time, if you lay horses crudely and don't trade or arbitrage, the likelihood that you'll win month after month and year after year without some down period which could easily last for several months seems barely credible. more to the point he claims to do all this while juggling a job and a family. he claims to never having paid premium charge and yet has won 200k over a few years- he offers no real insight into his methods beyond the usual gambling cliches- in fact his whole story is collapsing by the moment. actually the more I think about it the more I should retrain as a prosecutor  |
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However, close inspection of my records showed that only one kind of betting, based around certain horse racing markets, was consistently profitable. I therefore took the view that exploiting one edge in a systematic way was preferable to constantly searching for lots of betting opportunities. Sometimes I see clear value on non-racing markets, but I don't take it. I make enough from what I do.
I built my own bank before I started. Just a few thousand pounds in case I got off to a bad start. These days I keep about £15k to hand to cover a losing run. Naturally, you need discipline to make this game work. But after a while discipline becomes habit. I used to take the view that having nine or ten profit-making months per year was fine, but then I realised that this kind of thinking was making me complacent. I now do all I can to finish every month in profit, and this month will (hopefully) be my 11th consecutive profit-making one. Some days, you do everything right, and are happy with all of your bets, and still lose. They're the hardest days. You have no-one to blame and no guarantee that the same thing won't happen again tomorrow. I'm a layer. I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price. I have no interest in inside information. Forming my own opinion is part of the pleasure. ===================================================================== Not sure where your "impression" comes from ....as he/she has stated that it is "certain horse racing markets" they specialize in, and also they form a judgment as to how certain horses are likely to run. This does not appear to be a "crude" way to lay horses......and if he/she is very "good" at arriving at opinions correctly with a number of horses in the same race, then ,by laying them at odds likely to be far lower than SP, it would be one way to make consistent profits ......and MULTIPLE lays reduce cost of hits etc. There was/is at least 1 trader who rarely makes a loss on a race......and makes profit virtually every day ......and I don't believe he/she is the exception on here ( TGS being trader who also forecast the fall in property prices well before they did !)......So why should a layer not be "good" enough on a part - time basis , only specialising on certain race markets, be consistent at making profit .... £80 a day profit , on average, is what they say they make....This might be from 4 races say in one day....with laying maybe 4 or more horses at "low odds" IR....Might be more than that layed per race ???? Seems feasible enough... Politics been keeping me on here too long ....so time for kip! GL with bets. |
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DFCIRONMAN
When: 06 May 11 02:25 [...] Some days, you do everything right, and are happy with all of your bets, and still lose. They're the hardest days. You have no-one to blame and no guarantee that the same thing won't happen again tomorrow. [...] For me the hardest days are when I do something really stupid. I've lost a huge amount of money due to silly mistakes in 2011 already. If I have a big loss due to some extremely unlikely turn of events (like Arsenal drawing against Newcastle after being 4-0 up after 68 minutes), I don't feel as bad, because I know that will happen every now and then, and I've factored the risk into my returns before it happens. |
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Don't get the scepticism on this.
Seems entirely plausible to me. He says 'laying at the lowest possible price' as the secret, and this is seen as a banal statement of the obvious, something that of course everyone does. But of course hardly anybody does this . Most people on here, if they are looking to lay something, just do so on the basis that 'it won't win' and don't even bother asking for their bet to be matched at lower odds , they just take whats in the pink box without thinking. If you could get every lay matched at the lowest price it is matched at then you could turn £10 into Millions with ease , as the lowest prices matched are overwhelmingly going to be poor value for the backers, probably worse value than Bookie's SPs. It would be impossible to do that all the time but Dr J has presumably developed a strategy for identifying horses that are poor value to begin with and then gets matched at a lot lower than the average odds the horse is matched at . And presumably has the patience and discipline to only take the odds he wants and not go higher for fear of being unmatched. I have read many of Dr J's posts before , and though i don't care for his political views , he has never struck me as an egotistical person, and i can't imagine him starting up a tipping line , so it all seems genuine enough to me. |
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However, close inspection of my records showed that only one kind of betting, based around certain horse racing markets, was consistently profitable. I therefore took the view that exploiting one edge in a systematic way was preferable to constantly searching for lots of betting opportunities. Sometimes I see clear value on non-racing markets, but I don't take it. I make enough from what I do.
I built my own bank before I started. Just a few thousand pounds in case I got off to a bad start. These days I keep about £15k to hand to cover a losing run. Naturally, you need discipline to make this game work. But after a while discipline becomes habit. I used to take the view that having nine or ten profit-making months per year was fine, but then I realised that this kind of thinking was making me complacent. I now do all I can to finish every month in profit, and this month will (hopefully) be my 11th consecutive profit-making one. Some days, you do everything right, and are happy with all of your bets, and still lose. They're the hardest days. You have no-one to blame and no guarantee that the same thing won't happen again tomorrow. I'm a layer. I take views on how horses will perform and try to lay at the lowest possible price. I have no interest in inside information. Forming my own opinion is part of the pleasure. ===================================================================== Not sure where your "impression" comes from ....as he/she has stated that it is "certain horse racing markets" they specialize in, and also they form a judgment as to how certain horses are likely to run. This does not appear to be a "crude" way to lay horses......and if he/she is very "good" at arriving at opinions correctly with a number of horses in the same race, then ,by laying them at odds likely to be far lower than SP, it would be one way to make consistent profits ......and MULTIPLE lays reduce cost of hits etc. There was/is at least 1 trader who rarely makes a loss on a race......and makes profit virtually every day ......and I don't believe he/she is the exception on here ( TGS being trader who also forecast the fall in property prices well before they did !)......So why should a layer not be "good" enough on a part - time basis , only specialising on certain race markets, be consistent at making profit .... £80 a day profit , on average, is what they say they make....This might be from 4 races say in one day....with laying maybe 4 or more horses at "low odds" IR....Might be more than that layed per race ???? Seems feasible enough... Politics been keeping me on here too long ....so time for kip! GL with bets. |
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oops. let me try again.
This does not appear to be a "crude" way to lay horses......and if he/she is very "good" at arriving at opinions correctly with a number of horses in the same race, then ,by laying them at odds likely to be far lower than SP, it would be one way to make consistent profits ......and MULTIPLE lays reduce cost of hits etc. I didn't say it was a crude way to lay horses. I said it was laying horses crudely, ie pure gambling, without gambling or arbitrage. I think you are putting words into the guys mouth. at no point does he state that he makes multiple lays. also wouldn't it be simpler to just back one or two horses than lay multiple horses in the same race? bear in mind that you have to be very accurate with any lays on betfair, as not only are you laying at much bigger prices than the bookmakers are laying at, but you have to pay commission to betfair as well. |
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tobermory
Date Joined: 01 Mar 08 Add contact | Send message When: 06 May 11 03:45 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 18,441 | Blogger: tobermory's blog Don't get the scepticism on this. Seems entirely plausible to me. He says 'laying at the lowest possible price' as the secret, and this is seen as a banal statement of the obvious, something that of course everyone does. But of course hardly anybody does this . Most people on here, if they are looking to lay something, just do so on the basis that 'it won't win' and don't even bother asking for their bet to be matched at lower odds , they just take whats in the pink box without thinking. If you could get every lay matched at the lowest price it is matched at then you could turn £10 into Millions with ease , as the lowest prices matched are overwhelmingly going to be poor value for the backers, probably worse value than Bookie's SPs. It would be impossible to do that all the time but Dr J has presumably developed a strategy for identifying horses that are poor value to begin with and then gets matched at a lot lower than the average odds the horse is matched at . And presumably has the patience and discipline to only take the odds he wants and not go higher for fear of being unmatched. I have read many of Dr J's posts before , and though i don't care for his political views , he has never struck me as an egotistical person, and i can't imagine him starting up a tipping line , so it all seems genuine enough to me. but for me, "presumably" isn't good enough. maybe I drive a hard bargain, but again like dfcironman I think you are crediting him with a sophistication he may well have, but doesn't exactly shine through on this thread. as for the issue of laying at the shortest possible price, I believe someone else alluded to this earlier, when stating that when you try to get on earlier in some market with low liquidity, some bot or fellow gambler will try to undercut you, and when you try to get on when the market is more fully formed you are backing at the correct price. therefore the elusive "value" is far harder to find than seems to be suggested here. its quite possible that dr j uses bots, or arbitrages, or is simply some sort of highly gifted and skillful gambler, but until he suggests some sort of evidence to further back up his claims, this thread will remind me of the much vaunted patrick veitch book, which promises so much, but delivers so little in terms of high-level insights into gambling. |
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incidentally tobermony I agree with you that most on here simply back in the pink box. you often see silly prices being matched on horse racing early doors but they are for small sums. I doubt you could become a millionare by this method.
for example there is a way you can bet less than 2 quid so that your bet won't show on the market, and you are less likely to get undercut, but its such a tedious way of doing things and for such tiny money that I simply couldnt be bothered [;)] |
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The Investor 05 May 11 23:57
Trevh Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 Add contact | Send message When: 05 May 11 16:20 Joined: Date Joined: 21 Jul 06 | Topic/replies: 929 | Blogger: Trevh's blog I seem to recall that Dr J is a fanatical proponent of the new religion that is man made global warming theory, in which case I wouldn't trust a word he asays. How is that relevant? Publicizing outlandish claims to general approval while hiding from scrutiny the data on which they were based and the methods by which they were reached? |
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mythical prince Joined: 20 Sep 06
Replies: 2332 06 May 11 04:01 oops. let me try again. This does not appear to be a "crude" way to lay horses......and if he/she is very "good" at arriving at opinions correctly with a number of horses in the same race, then ,by laying them at odds likely to be far lower than SP, it would be one way to make consistent profits ......and MULTIPLE lays reduce cost of hits etc. ============================================================================= I didn't say it was a crude way to lay horses. I said it was laying horses crudely, ie pure gambling, without gambling or arbitrage. I think you are putting words into the guys mouth. at no point does he state that he makes multiple lays. also wouldn't it be simpler to just back one or two horses than lay multiple horses in the same race? bear in mind that you have to be very accurate with any lays on betfair, as not only are you laying at much bigger prices than the bookmakers are laying at, but you have to pay commission to betfair as well. ============================================================================ MP - He/she has said they mainly bet IN RUNNING................and also they lay at "lowest odds" they believe the horse will drop down to. So in effect the odds they are laying at ARE WELL BELOW BOOKIES SP! Not quite sure why you make this point above, as does not come close to what the originator of thread said. I agree he/she has not stated anything about MULTIPLE LAYS in one race.....but i suspect this is what they do. They may well be good enough to , on the specially selected race types/betting markets, identify horses that are likely to appear to be running well enough for their odds to drop IR. The selection method is likely to be based on many factors and naturally Dr J is not going to indicate specifically what they do. As long as they select horses that generally drop down in odds to the price they are prepared to lay at, then , based on their knowledge, they lay them IR. Prior to race Dr J will earmark a horse or horses that will be in reducing odds category IR and he will have reasons for laying it or them. Selectivity is one of key factors their success........and laying at odds far below SP on horses that generally don't win, or if they do win, the MULTIPLE lays reduce the hit......which i believe Dr J will be doing. |
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Sorry Dr J ....I see you used "fatherhood" earlier on ....so no doubt re your sex !
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Sad to see this thread descend into a discussion of whether or not I'm lying. The first few dozen responses were excellent, and really got me thinking about the psychology of long-term gambling and issues around milestones, record-keeping and runs of good/bad luck.
The last thing I ever intended this thread to be was a tell-all of a successful betting strategy. I thought that was fairly obvious from my opening post. I'm not prepared to post my P&L figures for the reasons DFCIRONMAN gives, but for those of you expressing interest in short/long-term profit/loss optimisation (and monthly patterns), here's a full breakdown of the 88 months since I began: 2004-01 January 1,325.65 2004-02 February 483.04 2004-03 March 1,510.11 2004-04 April 2,281.97 2004-05 May 2,522.67 2004-06 June 1,489.07 2004-07 July 2,114.34 2004-08 August 1,276.17 2004-09 September 8,752.81 2004-10 October 2,054.44 2004-11 November -2,221.14 2004-12 December -1,585.32 2005-01 January 3,240.20 2005-02 February 1,483.86 2005-03 March 3,509.61 2005-04 April -3,368.38 2005-05 May 2,484.71 2005-06 June 1,466.65 2005-07 July 3,002.02 2005-08 August 4,296.53 2005-09 September 7,344.66 2005-10 October 29.07 2005-11 November 3,503.87 2005-12 December 4,414.44 2006-01 January 4,357.51 2006-02 February 6,088.71 2006-03 March 9,019.33 2006-04 April 3,582.07 2006-05 May 210.82 2006-06 June 1,124.75 2006-07 July 675.27 2006-08 August 1,368.40 2006-09 September 5,128.04 2006-10 October 6,456.85 2006-11 November 8,017.06 2006-12 December 6,287.89 2007-01 January 6,000.00 2007-02 February 10,028.15 2007-03 March 11,017.44 2007-04 April 3,073.69 2007-05 May 10,005.56 2007-06 June 5,306.81 2007-07 July 3,003.71 2007-08 August 7,263.37 2007-09 September 540.47 2007-10 October -7,999.59 2007-11 November 4,221.19 2007-12 December -6,970.38 2008-01 January 408.32 2008-02 February 26.86 2008-03 March -4,636.46 2008-04 April 1.25 2008-05 May 4,043.84 2008-06 June 3,550.47 2008-07 July 4,591.35 2008-08 August -2,499.05 2008-09 September 3,470.62 2008-10 October -2,114.26 2008-11 November 1,726.48 2008-12 December 2,087.50 2009-01 January 2,532.15 2009-02 February 1,155.50 2009-03 March 12.73 2009-04 April 3,318.91 2009-05 May -4,330.29 2009-06 June 3,022.22 2009-07 July 5,771.97 2009-08 August 2,142.85 2009-09 September -5,094.11 2009-10 October -1,957.64 2009-11 November 57.07 2009-12 December 7,430.66 2010-01 January 2,009.96 2010-02 February 9.19 2010-03 March 5,210.85 2010-04 April -3,636.19 2010-05 May -8,659.54 2010-06 June 156.76 2010-07 July 959.04 2010-08 August 6,634.94 2010-09 September 212.72 2010-10 October 2,061.89 2010-11 November 2,264.86 2010-12 December 24.06 2011-01 January 8,028.56 2011-02 February 6,584.11 2011-03 March 2,731.48 2011-04 April -£5,641.88 |
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DFCIRONMAN -
You're basically right in almost everything you say. However, I didn't claim to mostly bet in-running. I only do that occasionally, usually to mitigate the downside of a position I'm unhappy with. Selectivity is a massive factor in the way I bet (the majority of races run in the UK I eliminate immediately) and I do lay multiple horses in the same race. Good luck with your own betting (though I suspect you don't need it!). |
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you say that you didn't intend it to be a tell-all... but surely you've told nothing?
why don't you just post up the figure of what you've won/lost over the last three months, and don't include the individual events? |
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i mean copy and paste your p and l. doesn't include individual events, so we won't be able to learn your magical secrets [:o]
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Betting Profit & Loss
************ 06-May-2011 14:49 Period: Last 3 HoursLast 6 HoursJust For TodayFrom YesterdayLast 7 daysLast 30 daysLast 3 Months Download to Spreadsheet ? (relates to event settlement date) (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) Horse Racing: £5,995.01 | Tote: | Total P&L: £5,995.01 |
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Sorry Dr J ......Never read your post carefully enough ! !!!
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How were you feeling in April 2008 after that awful 6 month spell?
I expect you were ok as you had preceded it with 40 odd months of great success, but that could have been the first 6 months, so in a way there is luck involved to start at the right time .You would had have struggled to convince yourself that you were onto a winner if you had started like that. |
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Absolutely, tobemory.
This time last year I was in the middle of my worst run, losing about £12k in a couple of months. It was then I decided I needed to make some fundamental changes. Since then, last month aside, I've fared much better. You're quite right to say that a good start is essential and that there's an element of luck attached to this. I did start out with lower stakes than I currently have in order to reduce this variable a little, but there's no doubt that had I lost £12k in the first two months I'd have quit immediately! |
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I see you lost more in April/May last year but it would be the 6 month run in 2007/08 that would have bothered me more.
Would have seriously worried about wether the edge still existed after that length of time, more acceptable to lose a lot in a short period. |