dr j

how did u handle them losing months? especially when u hit 2 or 3 in a row?

dfc

what ar u up to now? still doing footy cs laying?horse laying?

Hi RG.

Nope ...as preoccupied with work ....and will be for next 2 weeks roughly, I am not using system til JUNE. I also need certain adjustments to it....so need to see friend to sort that out.

If your ratings are based on mainly the race record.......then horses with current places /wins will tend to be near top of your ratings, and the punters will also tend to be backing them....as they "see" those recent results and are swayed by such results. So no surprise they are backed even though they may not take to going/class of race/distance etc etc, as well as there possibly being horses in race that have many factors in favour for that race having good chances in race.

It is unlikely your ratings will have some of higher odds horses in top part of ratings that my system will have.......and there will be some horses in both sets of ratings , probably the shorter odds ones, as their race records will probably have a few wins/places there boosting them into higher rated ones.

I'll post ratings for 11th March 2009 ( I did post them on a BF thread at that time.....so some will know this). As CHELTENHAM is there it might be of interest to you.



11 TH MARCH 2009






CHELTENHAM

13:30   Chase Challenge Cup 5yo plus 4m Class 2  19 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Kornati Kid             6 2ND F               
2,Fair Point              16
3,Can't Buy Time          4 F
4,Parsons Pistol         7  3RD FAV
5,Nuvelli                 100
6,Nine De Sivola                                               3RD 16-1
7,Borero                   40
8,Tricky Trickster                                             1ST 11-1        BF SP 13.34   MAX IP 23.3
9,Tank Top                 25
10,Coe                      15-2
-------------------------Swingers:1&2:£24.20, 2&3:£84.80, 1&3:£42.20 
11,Le Beau Bai                20
12,Carnival Town              40
13,Drumconvis                                                   2ND 22-1
14,Forest Leaves              14
15,Pangbourne                 20
16,Itsa Legend             50
17,Hennessy                 33
18,Niche Market             14
19,Radetsky March           100

14:05   Novices' Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 5f Class 1  14 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Karabak                                                 2ND 4-1 JOINT 2ND/3RD FAV
2,The Nightingale    16
3,Diamond Harry                                           3RD 4-1  JOINT 2ND/3RD FAV
4,China Rock         25
5,Mad Max            6
6,Junior            16
7,Quwetwo          20
8,Knockara Beau         14
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9,Mikael D'haguenet                                       1ST 5-2F        BF SP 3.69   MAX IP 4.5
10,Realt Dubh                20
11,Quartetto                100
12,Dorset Square          200
13,Ruthenoise               100
14,Richard The Third          250

14:40   Chase 5yo plus 3m 110y Class 1  15 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Killyglen                     12
2,Cooldine                                               1ST 9-4F   BF SP 3.89   MAX IP 3.95
3,Horner Woods    Straight Forecast: £199.11  Exacta: £263.30  Trifecta: £774.30    2ND 66-1  1&2:£36.50   WITH FAV
4,Carruthers                    13-2 JT 2ND/3RDF
5,Massini's Maguire                                      3RD 10-1  1&3:£6.20  WITH FAV
6,Lodge Lane                 33
7,Siegemaster                16
8,Gone To Lunch              7
-------------------Swingers:1&2:£36.50, 2&3:£121.00, 1&3:£6.20

9,What A Friend               13-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV
10,Lightning Strike             28         
11,Ballyfitz                    16
12,The Market Man              14
13,Casey Jones                 16
14,Hold Em                      66
15,Bohemian Lass                150

15:20  Queen Mother Champion Chase 5yo plus 2m Class 1  12 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Master Minded                                        1ST 4-11F     BF SP 1.41   MAX IP 1.5
2,Petit Robin                       2&3:£7.00 WITH 2ND/3RD FAV   3RD 12-1 CO 2ND/3RD FAV  1&3:£2.20  WITH FAV
3,Marodima                      100                       
4,Well Chief                         2&3:£7.00 WITH 2ND/3RD FAV 2ND 12-1 CO 2ND/3RD FAV  1&2:£2.90 WITH FAV 1&3:£2.20 
5,Twist Magic                      16
6,Briareus             16
7,Mahogany Blaze         40
-----------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £5.89  Exacta: £7.30  Trifecta: £36.00 
8,Santa's Son           33
9,Big Zeb              12 CO 2ND/3RD FAV
10,Ashley Brook            66
11,Scotsirish                40
12,Newmill           100

16:00  Coral Cup 4yo plus 2m 5f Class 1  27 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Great Endeavour            10 
2,Onnix                     33
3,Mirage Dore                                             2ND 14-1  2&3 £11.50  WITH 3RD FAV
4,Psycho                   7 2ND F
5,Kirbybroguelantern         33
6,Swordsman                  150
7,Larkwing                    22
8,Pierrot Lunaire              14
9,Lough Derg                16
10,The Polomoche              6 F
11,Door Boy                    33
12,Thundering Star             33
13,Pause And Clause                                       3RD 9-1  3RD FAV
14,Franchoek                 16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15,Ambobo                     12
16,Ninetieth Minute       1&2 £17.00  WITH 2ND TOP RATED   1ST 14-1  1&3 £22.90  WITH 3RD FAV    BF SP 17.76  MAX IP 20
17,Tisfreetdream                 100
18,Serabad                        25
19,Dancing Tornado                 20
20,Pouvoir                       25
21,Kawagino                      66
22,Doubly Guest               100
23,Copsale Lad                    100
24,Gee Dee Nen                 20
25,Chief Yeoman                25
26,Convincing                 100
27,Star of Angels                                          4TH 40-1

16:40  Juv Novs' Handicap Hurdle 4yo only 2m 110y Class 1  22 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Higgy's Boy           12
2,Giorgio Quercus         28
3,El Presidente             33
4,Indian Groom             33
5,Ronaldo Des Mottes          11
6,Helium                     25
7,Mr Thriller                 14
8,Resounding Glory           50
9,Woolfall Treasure           16
10,Tobago Bay                 80
11,Amore Mio                10 3RD FAV
12,Ruff Diamond             100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13,Kahsabelle              50
14,Silk Affair                                    1ST 11-1       BF SP 17   MAX IP 20
15,Balzaccio               16
16,Art Exhibition            50
17,Saticon                                       3RD 20-1
18,Bruslini               20
19,Ski Sunday                                    2ND 20-1
20,Flag Of Honour             16
21,Miss Sarenne              8 2ND FAV
22,Alexander Severus                            4TH 5-2F

17:15  Champion Bumper 4-6yo 2m 110y Class 1 24 runners Good to Soft Soft IP

1,Gagewell Flyer        14
2,Henry King             20
3,Red Harbour               50
4,Shinrock Paddy             10
5,Rite Of Passage                                3rd 5-2 F toteswinger: 1&2 £0.00, 1&3 £1.90, 2&3 £9.50
6,Quinola Des Obeaux              16
7,Meath All Star             12
8,Quel Esprit             10
9,Benbane Head              100
10,Cranky Corner           50
11,Sicilian Secret           9 3RD FAV
12,Some Present                                     2nd 25-1  SWINGER STATES NIL PAID ???? WITH 1:2????
13,Latin America            66
----------------                           Straight Forecast: £127.39  Exacta: £214.80  Trifecta: £804.00 
14,Morning Supreme           25
15,Cadspeed                      16
16,Fennis Boy                150
17,Abroad                       66
18,Double Dash                100
19,Dunguib                                                 1st 9-2 2ND FAV         BF SP 6.03   MAX IP 6.5
20,Pepe Simo                    50
21,Bygones of Brid             50
22,Lead The Parade              40
23,Long Strand                  50
24,Lightening Rod              100


HUNTINGDON

13:45  Lady Rs' Hcap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 110y Class 4 16 runners Good Good to Firm IP

1,Dan Tucker       5  2ND F   
2,Mucho Loco      10
3,Bajan Pride    7-2F
4,Mount Usher    40
5,Sweet World     8 JT 3RDFAV
6,Etoile d'Or     25
7,Beau Torero     25
8,She's Humble    10
9,Petrovka          14
-----------------------------------------------------------------
10,Kassuta                                     2ND 50-1
11,Chalice Welcome           8JT 3RD F
12,Sargentos                40
13,Wheelavit                                   3RD 16-1
14,Viable                                      1ST 11-1SP                 BF SP 15.98   MAX IP 17
15,Crazy Bold                66
16,Winged Arrow                                4TH 9-1

14:55  Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m Class 4  9 runners Good Good to Firm IP  Swingers:1&2:£20.40, 2&3:£0.00, 1&3:£2.40 

1,Hugo Wolf              7
2,Nagam                                      1ST 7-2 JT 2ND/3RD  FAV                 BF SP 4.52   MAX IP 4.5
3,Toni Alcala                                2ND 14-1  1&2:£20.40  WITH JOINT 2ND FAV AND JOINT 3RD FAV
4,Log On Intersky        16
5,Lahinch Lad                                 3RD 16-1 1&3:£2.40  WITH JOINT 2ND FAV AND JOINT 3RD FAV...SEEMS AN ODD RETURN????
---------------------------- Straight Forecast: £48.25  Tricast: £690.80  Exacta: £67.20 
6,Lescer's Lad           8
7,Touch of Fate         16
8,Autumn Red           100-30F
9,Born West           7-2 JT 2ND/3RD FAV

15:35  Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 5f 110y Class 4  17 runners Good Good to Firm IP

1,Ramvaswani                14
2,Portside                                               3RD 6-1  3RD FAV
3,Latalanta                  20
4,Rapid Return            33
5,Head To Kerry               3 F
6,Pearly Star                33
7,Gunnadoit                                              1ST 8-1             BF SP 12.08   MAX IP 40
8,Castlemainevillage                                     2ND 13-2
9,Romney Marsh                                           4TH 16-1
--------  Straight Forecast: £58.08  Tricast: £351.33  Exacta: £86.80 
10,Festive Chimes          11-2  2ND F
11,Present                    50
12,Kanonkop                   20
13,Native Bob                14
14,Anthony's Road              18
15,Fast Fred                  25
16,Nevada Red               33
17,Red Dynamite            28

16:15  Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 3m 2f Class 4 10 runners Good Good to Firm IP

1,Helm          18
2,Shergill       8
3,Enhancer          14
4,Blaze Ahead       7-2 2ND FAV
5,Moon Mix            33
6,Domenico                               3RD 11-1  1&3:£6.80  WITH FAV
---------------------------------------------------------
7,Sandymac                14
8,Leo McGarry                           1ST 5-2F   BF SP 3.95  MAX IP 320
9,Ortega                                 2ND 14-1  1&2:£15.80   WITH FAV
10,Double Obsession     9-2 3RD FAV

17:30  Std Open Nh Flat Race 4-6yo 2m 110y Class 6  11 runners Good Good to Firm IP

1,Baroque Star          14
2,Born To Perform                             1ST 4-1   2ND FAV         BF SP 5.71   MAX IP 11
3,Hopeand                                     2ND 11-8F Straight Forecast: £9.43  Exacta: £11.70 
4,Springtree            16
5,Ferula                 66
6,Aega                  33
---------------------------------------------------------------
7,Bargear                   50
8,Bobble Hat Bob             20     
9,Isitcozimcool                              3RD 9-2 3RD FAV 1&3:£2.70  WITH 2ND FAV
10,Tutto Bene             8
11,Sin Citadel        N/R
12,Be My Deputy       N/R
13,Present Time            40


KEMPTON

18:50  Handicap 4yo plus 1m 2f Class 5  13 runners Standard

1,Khun John                                 2ND 4-1F                 
2,General Feeling    N/R
3,Torch of Freedom            12
4,Supercast                                 3RD 9-1
5,King's Ransom     25 CLOSE(LAYIRPLACE)                           
6,King Supreme             7
7,Andaman Sunset           33
8,My Shadow               10
----------------------------------------------------------
9,Risque Heights                   12
10,Brouhaha                                   1ST 6-1 3RD FAV           BF SP 8.23   MAX IP 8.20
11,Clovis                          20
12,Sign of The Cross     5 2ND F
13,Aphrodisia                  14
14,Allanit                 14

19:20  Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 5  11 runners Standard

1,Louphole             9-2 3RD FAV
2,This Ones For Eddy   10
3,Guildenstern                          2ND 6-1   
4,Wee Buns             28
5,Towy Boy      16
6,Impromptu                             3RD 14-1  2&3 £31.20   WITH 3RD TOP RATED
---------------------------------------------------------
7,Maggie Kate           33                 
8,What Katie Did                         1ST 13-2  1&3:£32.70  WITH 14-1 SHOT          BF SP 8.8   MAX IP 7.60 
9,Ede's Dot Com            4 JF
10,Princess Rose Anne       4 JF
11,Style Award           16

20:20  Handicap 4yo plus 1m 3f Class 2   9 runners Standard

1,Dream Desert                          3RD 11-8F
2,Philatelist                           1ST 5-2                   BF SP 3.72   MAX IP 14
3,Robby Bobby          14
4,King Olav                             2ND 14-1  1&2:£36.40   WITH 2ND FAV  2&3:£15.20  WITH FAV
5,Buster Hyvonen        8 JT 3RD FAV
------------------- 
6,Bazergan            8  JT 3RD FAV
7,Grande Caiman       14
8,Evident Pride       14
9,John Terry          14

21:20  Apprentice Handicap 4yo plus 7f Class 6  13 runners Standard

1,Jessica Wigmo         7     
2,Double Valentine                           3rd 25-1  2&3:£26.10
3,Spent                 16
4,Admirals Way                                1ST 8-1 Swingers:1&2:£22.60, 2&3:£26.10, 1&3:£28.80   BF SP 11   MAX IP 11
5,Fun In The Sun        11-2 JT2ND/3RD FAV
6,Ike Quebec      5 F                           
7,Rio L'Oren         14
------------------------------------  TRICAST 1489.62
8,My Kaiser Chief        16
9,Outer Hebrides           8
10,Loyal Royal        11-2 JT 2ND/3RDF
11,Flamestone                               2ND 15-2  2&3:£26.10  WITH 25-1 SP 3RD
12,Titus Gent            50
13,Free Tussy              7


SOUTHWELL

13:20  Handicap 3yo only 5f Class 6  12 runners Standard

1,May Martin    5-2F
2,First Blade                                       3RD 50-1 SP  1&3:£57.30  2&3:£57.30
3,Bold Rose              20
4,Imaginary Diva          8
5,Jubilee Juggins  13-2 3RD FAV
6,Just The Lady             28
7,Forever's Girl           11
-----------------------------------------------------------------
8,Fashion Icon                                   2ND 7-1 2&3:£57.30
9,Taurus Twins             1&3:£57.30  WITH TR ONE  1ST 8-1SP   BF SP 9.8   MAX IP 5.7
10,Chimbonda               28
11,Yes She Can Can         100
12,Celtic Rebel      6 2ND F

14:30  Handicap 4yo plus 7f Class 5  6 runners Standard

1,Singleb                 4 3RD FAV
2,Autumn Blades                                  1ST 9-2  BF SP 6  MAX IP 7
3,Efisio Princess         8
4,Blue Charm           3RD   7-2
-------------------------------------------------------------
5,Caprio                                         2ND 11-4F
6,Kensington              7

15:05  Handicap 4yo plus 1m Class 5  10 runners Standard

1,Highly Regal                                   1ST 12-1   1&2:£11.10  WITH JOINT FAV   MAX IP 12   BF SP 11.02
2,Hilbre Court   5 3RD F
3,Penchesco
4,Flores Sea                                      2ND  11-4JF
5,Barataria           11-4JF
6,Lord Theo                                       3RD 6-1   1&2 £11.10, 1&3 £15.50, 2&3 £5.30
----- Straight Forecast: £46.14  Tricast: £226.99  Exacta: £68.00 
7,Jebel Tara                11
8,West End Lad             16
9,Downhill Skier          20
10,Dudley Docker          18

16:25  Handicap 4yo plus 1m 6f Class 5  7 runners Standard

1,Blockley                                          1ST 7-4F   BF SP 3.08  MAX IP 0.50
2,Spiritonthemount     16
3,Victory Quest      3RD   7-2
4,Calculating                                        2ND 4-1  3RD FAV
-----------------------------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £8.88  Exacta: £7.00 
5,Dream Mountain    20
6,Top Tiger         10
7,Eforetta         11-2

17:40  Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 6  13 runners Standard

1,Great Knight          5  3rd fav
2,Billy Hot Rocks         40
3,Diminuto               33
4,Charlie Allnut                               3RD 9-2 2ND F
5,Lytton                 25
6,Cheery Cat           
7,Imperaial Djay        9
8,Owed                  28
------------------------------------------------------------
9,Wiltshire               14       
10,Gracie's Gift            1&3:£2.60  WITH 2ND FAV   1ST 9-1    BF SP 15.85   MAX IP 15
11,Princess Charlmane                           2ND 50-1  2&3:£5.90   WITH 2ND FAV ....RETURN LOOKS ODD!!!!
12,Trinculo                  N/R
13,Cape of Storms        11-4F
14,Briannsta            12

==========================================================================================

this fred is ruined ffs

Thanks ndbbscms. Personally, I don't mind at all that the thread has drifted off-topic. I think it's fascinating to read about other people's approaches to long-term betting.

dr j

how did u handle them losing months? especially when u hit 2 or 3 in a row?

I've never had three consecutive losing months. Two is difficult enough, but they way I respond is to go back to basics. I re-analyse my data to death, looking to eliminate bad practice, select my races more carefully and keep a much closer eye on my potential downsides.

About 85% of my months are profit-making so I have good reason to believe that the way I bet is conducive to long-term success (I'm not using the word 'edge' any more because this thread has made me worry that I don't know what the word means!). I'm therefore able to treat the losing months as blips until or unless the broader trend changes (while guarding against complacency in a fashion that borders on paranoid at times!).

Out of interest Dr J how much of the 200k have you got left?  Did you re-invest it (or some of it) back into your betting bank to help it grow and increase your stakes?

At least it didn't go to waste then

Well, like any Betfair player, there's a limit to how much I can get on at the optimal price. The profitability of all approaches diminishes as one's stake increases.

Having said that, I think there's still some room between me and the ceiling. The main reason I don't increase my bank/stakes is because I don't want to change my profit:risk ratio. I'd rather average £20k per year knowing that a bad month will cost me £5k than average more per year in the knowledge that a couple of losing months could wipe me out (psychologically as much as financially).

I'm also unusual in that I don't really have a 'bank' as such. I usually keep about £15k in the bank account that's connected to my Betfair account, but I don't use bank-size to determine stakes (as I know many other punters do very successfully).

That post didn't come out correcly as I can only read, and obviously post 7/8ths of what's been posted. I hope you get my drift Dr J

With savings rates also being low , stewarty, there's little point in having money sat in the bank probably on a lower rate than the mortgage.

Dr J do you have a PhD?

Is it in something mathematical or quantitative?

Fascinating thread Dr J, thanks.

I've been profitable since 2004 and like you am very surprised that my edge still exists (if it does, that is - the lest few months have been a bit poor)

I can empathise with the computer game psychology, when I first started taking it seriously the only way I could cope with the figures involved was to convince myself I was playing with monopoly money.  I'm sure this idea would go down well at gamcare :p

Unlike you I couldn't wait to leave work because I am essentially a very lazy man and need a lot of time available to properly enjoy my midlife crisis which I am planning to extend for a good few years yet.

Losing periods are the hardest thing to learn to deal with, I found it so easy to overreact in the early days.  Now i take the view that I need to firmly establish that I don't have an edge before I will stop or make radical changes.  Since I have a sufficiently large bank, this seems like the logical approach.

Hope to catch the 300k thread sometime soon :)

I find holidays and young ladies are the key ;)

Just stick to the holidays, and don't spend your retirement funds [;)]

Not surprised you have a PhD, I have one myself.

Only a Masters for me.

Dropped out in the first year to turn gambling pro.

Saved a lot of years of tedium compared to you Doctor types   (I hated Uni with a passion)

I have worked in this industry for over 10 years and the original post fits in perfectly with the type of person I seem to have to encounter every day.  So many people are self absorbed and totally lacking in awareness.

The facts are that you win, and win well, (dependent on the person of course) and you want to tell people.  If you wanted a discussion as you suggested the figures are irrelevant.  Writing things like this gets standard responses, which you surely knew you would get??  Those that are jealous of you winning, those that want to find out as much information as possible to try and steal a way to win and those that are as self absorbed as yourself and want to talk about being wonderful together. 

I class myself as a reasonably normal person.  I don't care if you win. I don't care if anyone on here I don't know wins.  I don't think anyone normal cares about how successful strangers are.

But the reason I am replying is more specific about your lack of awareness. 

You would hate for it to "fund a lifestyle," "high stakes gambling can suck the souls from your eyes" and the contrasts in your life are "perfect." 

In your mind, even though there are people better than you at this specifically, you are still better than them generally.  What an absolute wally.

cpfc4me, fair enough, but Dr J obviuosly has an edge. Personally I would use it to greater effect. Having said that, I've no doubt our circumstances are different. I never make any fancy claims but I've never worked since joining Betfair, (and a good few years before that to). I'm not on benefits or anything illegal, but I do have another income that gives me a decent standard of living. Any profits from punting are a welcome bonus.

The title of the thread is pretty self-explanatory, GGL - why click on it?

What I can gather from thisa thread is that Dr J has no intention of going full time, and is reluctant to disscuss the the thought of packing in his job. That's his right, but I do ask myself, for what reason? Maybe he's on 200K per annum and wants security. Nothing wrong with that, but what if the £1,000,000 thread eventually appears?? Anyways, it's his own private buisness.

cpfc4me makes the key points - it's less stressful to bet part-time and that kind of work/betting balance suits some people better than being full-time.

My job pays nothing like £200k per year, but I enjoy it greatly and simply prefer to keep gambling as a hobby rather than a career. It's also worth remembering that conditions could change very easily and very quickly. What if Betfair raise their commission levels, or change the threshold at which the PC applies? I don't have any alternative (non-Betfair) edges to fall back on.