General Betting
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O'Dywer
O'Dywer
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Replies: 293
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It's only a matter of time before Bowls and Fishing appear in his P&L
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don't knock MMA rocket. there's money in the UFC markets.
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"don't knock MMA rocket. there's money in the UFC markets."
Yep, most of it is probably John's [:o] I see from his latest blog posting how the delusion continues in Chez O'Dwyer, all about how if only he had a bigger bank etc. - never dawns on him that if he had a bigger bank, instead of having lost £113 so far this month, he'd have lost a bigger amount. If someone finds a brain without a head in Barnstaple then please return it to John [;)] |
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viva el presidente!
17 Jun 11 14:27 Joined: 10 Jun 06 don't knock MMA rocket. there's money in the UFC markets. There used to be loads until somebody else woke up to just how stupid some UFC punters can be. I now suspect V LP to have muscled in on this little goldmine. |
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rare that someone says this on here, alex - but I think you have a somewhat inflated idea of my abilities. I've made a couple of hundred quid on it in the last three months.
but you do get some prices that are a bit odd if you take a look at the form. |
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You are too modest.
I have just taken another look at it. We have somebody making a book of between 101.5- 104% on markets with a volume amounting to almost the square root of bugger all. I could live with low volume when the "winner is a winner" mob abound and when the margin was a lot bigger, but I won't fanny about to get tiny margins on tiny volume. Can I bring myself to study UFC form? Not yet. The MOV markets might be worth a nibble though. |
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well, yeah - but that's 2 weeks before the next event. you'd get similar volumes and overrounds on any sport that far in advance.
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A slow Monday and I will take another look.
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look on the evening of the event. unless there's a real marquee fight on, not much really happens till the day of the fights.
the main thing dampening liquidity is the fact that it's always on so late, rather than a lack of interest in the sport - which iirc turns over more than boxing now. headline bouts almost always start after 4am UK time. |
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Oh dear looks like John is still a believer despite the evidence.Hoped for hom to turn it around but it doesn't look like he can.
 Betting Gambling Casino BetfairTelegraph.co.uk - Betfair poised to replace Yu as chief executivepowered by Saturday, 25 June 2011 3 Month Update This shows the extent of the damage really - the numbers I mean. The losing has gone on far too long, especially if this is your only form of income, like it is with me. You're probably bored of hearing this as well, but I could have resolved this ages ago, if only I had the bank size to do so, but this is partially my fault. I'm not blaming anyone. It's just been a dodgy couple of months outside of using Betfair. On the other hand, I know it can change quite quickly so hopefully things start going in the right direction from now on. 26th March - 26th June 2011: Australian wallet: Total P&L: -185.82 Posted by John O'Dwyer at 11:12 PM 4 comments Links to this post Labels: betfair, profit and loss |
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Good questions and good points. I'm in quite a bit of mess due to a bad few months on Betfair, that carrying on is the only way out. Otherwise I'll be paying people off forever. All I need is the bank-size and things should go from there, so confidence isn't an issue. Basically, I've sold most of the stuff I have of value, so that's how I've got funds, but now I'm on my last legs. So now I have to make it work. Not good I know, but I know I can buy it all again in future and learn from what has been poor money management.
Oh dear...I think we can all guess what happens next... |
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Should sell a kidney.
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If you read this thread Odywer, which I suspect you do, you really do need to take a year out from gambling, which will clear your head, you're not thinking straight even though you think you are.
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I reckon he needs to just give it up completely. He's still going on about needing a bigger bank. God help him if he ever gets his hands on one.
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You're probably bored of hearing this as well, but I could have resolved this ages ago, if only I had the bank size to do so, but this is partially my fault. I'm not blaming anyone.
its only partially his fault  |
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It seems from the apparent large number of " hooked " readers he has, that he should start selling advertising space on his blog to get his larger bank.
What products however would suit the demographics of his type of readers ?. |
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I await the day his blog and Twitter account suddenly disappear, leaving us to wonder what happened to John...
His latest post shows us he's won £226 in the last week. A good week, but when you consider that profit is included in the 3 monthly figure he's also posted (showing a loss of £185) then it's easy to put into context...especially when it's supposedly also his only source of income. One wonders just what exactly he's been selling to keep afloat - all those priceless antiques John's parents have been keeping in the loft ?! [smiley:crazy] I wouldn't give John a penny, guy needs to learn the hard way and hopefully not take the rest of his family down with him. |
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"What products however would suit the demographics of his type of readers?"
Sex toys  |
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The strangest thing is why he keeps updating his blog. If you were doing your nuts every week would you want to keep sharing it with the world??
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maybe would be a good thing for people to lay off odwyer a bit.
obviously the guy has major problems, financial and addictive, and seeing as he's not answering back I think the revelling in his problems thing's slightly past its sellby date. |
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tbh I doubt John could care less about this thread, viva el presidente! He's in a world of his own and probably worrying more about the new PC charges for when he gets that £1K bank.
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my guess is he reads it on a regular basis.
guy's got problems. he may have been an @rse in the past, but I think he's been silent and horizontal long enough for there to be a kicking moratorium. |
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At least the new PC changes shouldn't be a problem any time soon.
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Wow,Johns had a screamer.
Friday, 1 July 2011 Last 7 Days 24th June - 1st July 2011: Australian wallet: Total P&L: +£1,010.27 Posted by John O'Dwyer at 9:55 PM 3 comments Maybe he might have to worry about pc.  |
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Uh oh !
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Another post that O'Dwyer has posted and then removed (courtesy of my Google Reader).
NB: Contrary to what he says below he has actually 'only' lost £525.34 and not £838.26 (i.e. -£681.80+£156.46); he has deducted the £156.46 in his calculation below rather than added it. http://odwyer1980.blogspot.com/2011/07/7-day-update.html "7 Day Update by John O'Dwyer I wasn't looking forward to this update because I knew it wasn't going to make good reading, but will try and keep things as honest as possible. A few of you will be wondering why I have not delivered what I had promised after reaching the £1k I needed. Well to cut a long story short, in truth, I never actually had £1k to play with in the first place. The money made in the previous weeks was withdrew from Betfair to pay off various debts and otherwise, and I really only had £600 in my Betfair account at the very most. Still no excuse I know - that was still more than enough to get things done. It was just a bad week from a Betfair point of view, but at the end of the day it's only money. I'm still confident of how things will go long-term. July 6th-13th 2011: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qLcU5mddplE/Th4SAs3qQ_I/AAAAAAAAA9Q/-i1qH75_YDA/s1600/wed1.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6pwT3buVg4M/Th4SEDTavCI/AAAAAAAAA9Y/YZpdb5uMQLc/s1600/wedaus.png -£838.26" |
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I really only had £600 in my Betfair account at the very most.
-£838.26 |
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There are some funny comments on the comments on the comments section of his blog.
First it looks like he has been indulging in some creative accounting Anonymous said... whats the total from 1st of july or have you done the p/l from 29th june to get some bigger wins from your last screenshot included in this one? You never make your updates clear date wise and they always cross so we never actually know how you are really doing. Can you do the update from the end of the last screenshot and not take big wins from the last update to make it look better with the most recent one? 7 July 2011 07:43 Then there is this absolute gem.I hope the poster was being sarcastic. Philip said... Have you considered doing training courses to show people how you do it? Might be an easy way to rack up the bank as plenty of people seem to be setting themselves up as betfair trainers these days. 9 July 2011 18:57 A ever good luck John.  |
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Hmm, this is starting to get pretty serious for him. He really needs to stop. Does he still post here?
I don't know how he got his hands on another 1,000 but now that he has lost it how is he going to scrape more money together? |
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John must have friends in high places,just seen this on his blog.
Thanks Betfair I'd just like to thank Betfair for crediting money back into my account after an error on their part last week. The discrepancy came about after I bet £200 on England to beat Sri Lanka in the ODI Cricket, but for some reason it would not let me trade-out of the bet at 1.05 when England looked well on the way to winning easily. After speaking to them on the phone they said my account showed a negative balance of -8p and this caused the error. They ended up crediting my account with 8p on the phone so I could trade-out again, but unfortunately it was too late as England had made a mess of things by this time and were out to odds of around even money. I think it was some good batting from Angelo Mathews from memory? Anyway, I ended up with a £89 pound loss either way, but after talking to them again the next day on the phone, they credited the money back into my account. So I was happy with the way they dealt with this situation in the end. Posted by John O'Dwyer at 12:08 AM 3 comments Never heard of this happening before. Interestingly there is no mention of his weekly P-L,I wonder why. |
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still putting his full bank on selections the mug. it's only a matter of time before he loses it all again.
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odwyer1980 John O'Dwyer
Bad day today. Couldn't trade out of my £400 bet on the ODI. I phoned them up and they said they'd see this happen before, but never (tbc..) odwyer1980 John O'Dwyer But never explained why. All they said I was -8p and was an error in the system. So after waiting on the phone for 4 minutes and (tbc) 9 Jul odwyer1980 John O'Dwyer watching my money disappear whilst England let the Sri Lankans back in, they credited my account with 8p, but ended up with a 350 pound loss 9 Jul odwyer1980 John O'Dwyer Never happened to me in the 5 years I've used Betfair. Complete nightmare. 9 Jul Favorite Retweet Reply mug says only 200 bet and 89 loss on his blog and 400 350 loss on twitter. lier. |
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looking at various screenshots he's posted, you can see what he's doing wrong.
there's a recurrent pattern, where one or two big losses dwarf the biggest wins. if he actually wants to crack this, he needs to start forensically analysing what happened in those markets and why he let things get so bad before redding out. |
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i suspect your overcomplicating things vel: he's obviously running his losers.
the problem is that you do that more when you're not doing so well: it's a funny old feedback loop. |
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I think we're basically saying the same thing. running his losers and cutting his winners short.
needs to look at his decision making process when things are going against him. |
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I think it's simpler than that.
He's a moron. |
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I don't think he's a moron. he just has personality traits that militate against him being a successful trader.
and if you were making a book on it, after this long you'd have to price him up pretty long to ever overcome them. |
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We're talking about the guy who thought there was a ghost in his house because his dog wanted to go out one night.
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Just seen this on another thread.
tobermory Joined: 01 Mar 08 Replies: 19457 15 Jul 11 17:41 A few years back a forumite (Odwyer1980) actually phoned the police to report he had been threatened on the betfair forum. The cops actually had a chat with the other poster. |