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Calling The Swinging Magpie

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By:
jonny40
When: 07 Jan 09 21:38
Great Leighs

1.55 Godfrey Street / Steel City Boy
3.25 Came Back / Matsunosuke
4.25 Nicky Nutjob / Inactualfact

Southwell

1.50 Readily / Tillers Satisfied
3.20 Whitbarrow / Certain Justice
3.50 Kinout / Cape of Storms


Jon
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 08 Jan 09 07:00
Fastbear, do you use and odds calculator spreadsheet to turn your own rating into a betting forecast ?
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 08 Jan 09 07:01
Good luck with yours today Jonny. :)
By:
Fastbearform
When: 08 Jan 09 09:31
Morning Magpie. I don't produce a betting forecast for all horses anymore. I stopped that as soon as I realised for my purposes that I only needed a rough price of whatever the fav might be. My findings led me to believe, based on historical data that nearly 80% of runners in any race would come from a certain group of horses. This enabled me to quickly calculate the likely odds of the fav. Of course, I have to believe that my selection should be fav. However, most of the time they aren't, this means alot of the time, I know I am getting 'value' on my pick. Recent examples for me, that happened to win were Sentry Duty which I had at around a 7/1 chance (got 12's) and Malko de Beaumont, I thought about 4/1 and took 8/1. My method of calculating the favs price is simplicity itself and I know alot of people would rubbish it, but it's worked ok for me. People would try to tell me I should be taking all sorts of things into account, but, as with most things, its the simple things that work the best! Again, my method is only based on historica, mathematical data, not what the chances might be of the individual horse. :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 08 Jan 09 13:38
Jonny on fire, Godfrey Street at 11/1 !!! get in there.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 08 Jan 09 15:35
Sorry Magpie, to answer your original question, I used to rate the horses on a spreadsheet and then use the combined total as the base for getting a price for each horse. It was a bit time consuming and it never really gave me any advantage as I was more concerned with backing a horse that had a bit of a chance at a big price rather than trying to find the winner. For me now, the top priority is to find the most likely winner and then look at the price. Like I said earlier, most of the time I get a good price, if I'm not happy, I let it run. :)
By:
Fastbearform
When: 08 Jan 09 17:03
Kelso 2.10. Run To Space.

Won't be a big price, but worth a small 1pt win bet to maybe get the betting money for what I'm really interested in.

Lets hope the meeting goes ahead.
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 08 Jan 09 21:00
A winner, two seconds and a third today. I like yours tomorrow Fastbear, but your namesake systems also says Norminster !! also Welsh opera, doris's gift, Good Luck all.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 08 Jan 09 22:17
Pistols at dawn then Magpie?
By:
Fastbearform
When: 09 Jan 09 08:52
Morning all.
Assuming the racing goes ahead, my selection in the 2.10 looks a 'bargain' at 7/2 this morning. Should be 2/1 imo. This is good news for yours Magpie, at least 5's this morning. :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 09 Jan 09 11:04
Norminsetr is only a system checker horse, hope yours wins if your on it for real Fastbear, good luck.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 09 Jan 09 14:45
Another 'dead' day. At least I returned on the non runner!
Tomorrow looking hopeless as well, but might be able to dig something out.
Sunday is looking more promising and I'm looking to get involved in the Peerse Hurdle with hopefully a strong one there. Will post when decs are out. :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 09 Jan 09 14:58
The weather is doing us no favours at the moment.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 09 Jan 09 18:04
Good evening. I am pleased to say that the money is down for the weekend selections and all I can do now is keep my fingers crossed.
Tomorrow at Ayr, I have decided to take a chance on Endless Power in the 2.30. Conditions should suit and if running to form should hopefully be close at the business end.

On Sunday, I've taken a good look at the Pierse Hurdle and am very hopefull of a big run from Imperial Hills. The horse has done nothing wrong recently and is running off a weight of 10st.

Currently at prices of 12/1 and 9/1 generally, a good potential payout on a winning double also beckons.

So, lets hope the weather doesn't mess us up again this week! :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 09 Jan 09 18:42
1.20 Ayr La Forrit (primrose if 8s or less)
1.35 Door Boy
1.45 Commanding prescence
1.00 Camden George, unless drifting over 2/1

Its a bit early I know, but I'm out on the booze tonight. Good Luck all.
By:
jonny40
When: 09 Jan 09 21:07
Lingfield

3.20 John Terry / Sgnt Schultz
3.50 Teasing / Hilbre Court

Kempton

2.15 Hollow Jo / Arfinnit
2.45 Nothing is Forever / Snowberry Hill
3.15 Resplendant Nova / Totally Focussed
4.45 Amwell Brave / Hatch a Plan
5.15 Carlton / Satindra
5.45 Duke of Milan / Bold Diva


Jon
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 10 Jan 09 07:20
Wetherby off :(
By:
Fastbearform
When: 10 Jan 09 08:11
Were you going Magpie?
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 10 Jan 09 08:21
St Jame's Park :)
By:
Fastbearform
When: 10 Jan 09 13:52
A good run from EP but not quite good enough. Glad I had a bit on the place to get my money back. :)
No double running on for tomorrow though. :(
By:
Fastbearform
When: 10 Jan 09 14:18
Sometimes it is as important not to bet as it is to bet. Having just watched the 3.00 at Ayr, I was pleased that as much as my heart wanted to back Malko de B, after winning so much on it recently, I heeded the advice of the late Sir Clive. He always believed in the 3 p's: proven, progressive and profit. Despite all the hype for M de B, the horse had never won over this trip or at this course, the price therefore was way too short. Glad I stayed out, saved myself a couple of points there and feel like I've won! I will be on M de B again one day, when the time is (hopefully) right. :)
By:
jonny40
When: 10 Jan 09 14:28
2 winners so far 6-1 n 4-1!!

Jon
By:
Fastbearform
When: 10 Jan 09 14:34
Feels great doesn't it! ;)
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 10:30
Morning all.
Back very briefly on the subject of value, I hope this may provide a small example.
Today I have Imperial Hills running in a 30 runner handicap at 10/1.
A good price, yes. But value? Borderline imo.

On the 20th Dec, Malko De Beaument in an 11 runner handicap at 8/1. A good price? Yes. Value? Very definately!

As far as I am concerned, I would much rather every time take the 8's from the second example than the 10's from the first as I am likely to have a higher win rate in the second example owing to the amount of runners.

Psycho in todays Pierse hurdle is a classic example of awful value, win or lose! Simply to back horses like this in such races in the long term will see people losing alot of money eventually.

Price is important, but mainly in relation to the amount of runners in any given race.
Good luck today all. :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 11:13
If you want to find the best value bets, youll need to calculate the probabilities for the events yourself. If your estimates are correct, youll win your bets more often than the probabilites shown by the bookmakers odds would seem to indicate, thus hopefully making a long-term profit.

The difficulty in making value bets consists of being able to calculate probabilities more accurately than the bookmakers. Bookmakers have a range of powerful tools at their disposal and its up to the like of me and you Fastbear to find an edge over this, and that isnt easy. In my opinion you have to formulate your own ratings, convert them into your own tissue, form your own opinion from your own ratings of which is the most likely winner then compare it to the Bookmakers tissue and see if your selection is value against it.

It takes time to do which is why I asked you if you used spreadsheets a few days ago, as there is a spreadsheet available that will do the calculations for you after you have inserted your own ratings for each race. Whichever way we do it, it aint easy !!
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 12:14
At the end of the day Magpie, it is all about personal opinion, isn't it?
All we can do is find a way to bet, that we, as individuals are happy with. If we end up coining it in from time to time, then that is a big bonus. As for me, if I carry on betting to similar levels and frequency that I have been over the last couple of months, financially I can't possibly start losing money for at least another year. That is something I am very happy with at the moment. :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 12:28
Sounds good to me Fastbear !! :)
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 11 Jan 09 12:59
thus hopefully making a long-term profit.

and that isnt easy.


Something tells me that you don't win at this game swinger.
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 13:07
Who invited you to this thread numpty ? What I make is my business, now take your multiple users names elsewhere and bore someone else with them.
By:
Alex the old wrinkled retainer
When: 11 Jan 09 13:07
Ok John
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 13:11
Well, at least that proves there are other people reading this thread! :0
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 13:12
Afternoon Fastbear.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 13:16
Good afternoon, I hope you are well and had a good day out yesterday.
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 13:20
Not bad at all mate had a little play on Dishdasha earlier today, couldnt resist it had so much in hand if hurdle form was transferred to the flat, wish I'd played bigger !!
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 13:23
Good luck with Imperial.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 13:25
Nowhere! Glad I resisted the temptation to go in again! :)
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 13:26
By the way, well done on Dishdasha. :)
By:
The Swinging Magpie
When: 11 Jan 09 13:26
Bit of a shock there, 50/1 shot !! 90s on here.
By:
Fastbearform
When: 11 Jan 09 13:30
I'm off now to deal with my Sunday roast, happy in the knowledge that I didn't lose too much this weekend and that hopefully next week we will have some quality racing to deal with. :)
By:
jonny40
When: 11 Jan 09 13:45
Just had a small touch on Divinsky, am sorting out pc probs so havent had time to post.

Have it on good authority that fakenham will be on tomorrow.


Jon
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