General Betting
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Calling The Swinging Magpie
Calling The Swinging Magpie
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maths rr, I had CF around 10 lengths clear of CAA in the mud. could well change on better ground in future though. was very close to doing BW but wasn't sure that the flat track would be to his advantage, was mainly the price that swayed me on FL.
off to work now. laters  |
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Afters.
Decided to go for the tricky races tomorrow (makes a change) and after a bit of digging, have come up with a couple for Aintree and one from my 'notebook' for Sandown. Have also laid Sprinter Sacre on the ground that there's nothing between him and Sanctuaire on my figures, but Sanctuaire has recorded a very fast time on soft, which SS hasn't yet. In the 2.10 at Aintree, the Becher Chase, the world and his wife seem to be all over West End Rocker which does seem to have a very good chance. However, I think I have a decent alternative at a big price, and would be surprised if he isn't thereabouts at the business end of things. Fabalu seems just too big to me at a tasty 20/1, so that's the bet for me. In the 2.30 at Sandown in the Handicap Hurdle, I'm going with the horse that should have won for me a few weeks back at Cheltenham. To my eyes, Canadian Diamond was looking like the winner, until unseating the jockey at the second last, the bonus being that this one is a bigger price than it should be, a big run expected here off a very light weight and a double figure price should be available. In the 3.20 at Aintree, hopefully Gansey can round off a decent afternoon at odds of around 5/1. |
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OUCH!
And so, onto next week.....................  |
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The Ladbroke
I've been having a closer look at this race today. There are lots of if buts and maybe's doing the rounds about various horses at the mo and there don't seem to be many concrete plans for a fair few runners right now. However, there is one that I'm slightly interested in purely from an ap perspective, and that is Claret Cloak. You may remember this one finished a close third behind Raya Star and It's A Gimme back at the beginning of November. The trainer was very happy with that run first time up and very much hopes for an improved performance at Ascot next time out. The horse is an intended runner, although he wouldn't want it too soft. With so many doubts over other runners, this one could well go off in single figures on the day and is worth a small bet at the generally available odds of 14/1. |
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Goodluck. Was shocked you didnt fancy sprinter sacre. You know your horses
Tho, dark lover was very good winner today. Missed it, shame on me, just Betting on the flat these days. Im on long run for the king george. Has form In the book, will be interesting race. |
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Good evening.
Was unable to post on here today, but fortunately for me, had two winners, including the one you mentioned there rr, along with At Fishers Cross. It wasn't that I didn't fancy SS last week, more that I thought Sanctuaire had decent claims at a much better price. SS returned one of the highest speed figures I've ever given a chaser in that race and I won't be opposing him again in a hurry. I've got a few I like for tomorrow, including Vasco Du Ronceray at Donny and Far West and Shooters Wood at Chelts, but have settled on backing just the two in the handicap chases at those courses. In the 2.30 at Cheltenham which to me anyway, doesn't look to be that brilliant a race, with quite a few having a half decent chance, I've decided to stick with Nadiya De La Vega. Ran a good race for me last month and can go well again I think. 11/1 ish at the mo. In the 3.20 at Doncaster, I see nothing wrong with the claims of Misstree Dancer, is in form and should run well again at odds of around 7/1. |
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A late bet for me on Rock On Ruby, despite all the negative stats. Has a fantastic record at around 2 miles as I've pointed out before, and as far as I'm concerned should be hard to beat in this race. 4.3 taken, way too big.
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Probably the ground........
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There are so many question marks over runners in the King George at the mo. The main thing being I think, is what horses will get the trip other than the confirmed distance winners. Personally I think, amongst the 'two and a half milers' there are a few that have the class on their day to win this.
This probably won't be my main bet on the day, but there is one I like, and in my analysis anyway, on what I would call 'tight tracks', has a very good record that reads 12111 with two of those wins at Kempton. Now to be honest, I have no idea at the mo if the horse is an intended runner, but I've already had a little nibble anyway. At a price on here currently in the hundreds to small money, I thought it might be worth having a small bit on Menorah. Probably nothing will come of it, but I will be more than happy on the day if he at least lines up, and then, who knows..... |
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Never really understand how it is possible to select a horse that will be running in a race, or maybe not, on 26th of December when it is currently 19th December.
Main problems being the GOING is not known and neither is the final composition of field. Obviously the odds on antepost for M being around 250-1 are such, reflecting the "risks" of such a market for this horse.......and if only dabbling a "small bit" on it, then on the day of race the odds are likely to be at least good value for trade etc etc. Hopefully the horse runs FB ....GL and thanks for at least posting your early thoughts on races over the course of 2012 and best wishes for new year  |
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You are of course correct in what you say about the going and any other reasons for not getting involved in betting so far in advance. I never get over involved in ante post markets, but occasionally, just because I can't help looking, I come across things that make me think 'why not'? Sometimes I just 'remember' things that make me look closer, sometimes it's actually because I've made a proper hard note of something. It's just that with Menorah, I remembered things I'd found out about it previously, looked at it again to confirm and decided I should have a bit on it on it at a big price. So often in the past I have found out little things about horses that are strong pointers, only to ignore them and then see the beasty romp home at a nice price. Of course the opposite is also true, there are many horses I don't back because I think they will perform below their best, I never normally mention these. But back to the KG, with so many questions marks over many, it seems a good a time as any to have a stab at a big priced one. However, I still have one more up my sleeve, but I am waiting for the final decs for that one, because it is a shorter price and I want to see it confirmed.
Actually, I don't like ante post betting that much, it's just that I enjoy the research. Then of course, if I find something I like, I feel 'obliged' to have a little dabble, especially if the price looks ok! |
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Isn't it amazing..........?
If anyone found a horse in the King George that had slammed Cristal Bonus and Al Ferof on softish ground over two and a half miles on a tight track, wouldn't they be seriously considering it for this race? I still can't believe it's current price. The mind boggles........  |
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GOING for the KG race have been relatively not too harsh for this race. GOOD TO SOFT in most of recent races and GOOD in 2008.
So this year's race might be far tougher conditions than there has been for many years. Makes race more interesting.....but until we know what GOING is it is hard to weigh race up. Sir Des Champs (FR) and Kauto Stone (FR) look likely ones to trouble the fav.......if going is SOFT....and if they run! Menorah does not stand out just on the numbers in race record.....if going is SOFT......but certainly a good horse and worth its' place in race. GL FB ......waiting to day of race , then it will all become "clear" and the mind won't be boggling so much!!!!  |
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I'll be having another look next week and I'm bound to come up with a more sensible selection, I'm sure. Kauto Stone does look to tick a lot of boxes for sure. As for the Ladbroke, now that CC is out after the final decs, I've now had a bit on It's A Gimme for now, although Bothy interests me once more....... |
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Good evening
I'll make this quick and to the point, have to go and pick my girl up in a mo. Haydock 2.15 Douglas Julian 7/1 bog Ascot 3.10 It's A Gimme 10/1 generally bog |
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Conditions today making selections "tricky".......
2.15 - Mac Aeda might be close to winning....but very open race. CANNINGTON BROOK may find weight difficult to win on....bit appears to hold a fair chance in this race. 3.10 With the owner of IT'S A GIMME having 2 other horses in race.....then makes it far harder for punter to guess which one is there at finish. Of the 3 Princeton Plains appears to have a chance on the day ...........DAN BREEN though is "interesting" but a 10 llb claimer on it is a bit off putting! Of the rest OLOFI seems to hold a chance on day. PETIT ROBIN should might place.....this race looks harder than last 2! As you can see......I find it hard to select just one in the races selected.....hopefully you have right 2 FB......3.10 selection is the one of your 2 that makes more appeal...GL with these "hard" races  |
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Well done DF
Been absolute carnage for me today so will be licking my wounds until Boxing Day! Will spend my time catching up on the patterns and speed figures I think.......  |
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now this is a good thread
posters at least seem to have some idea about what they are doing and why refreshing |
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Cannington brook won the race last year obviuosly loves
the course, wd. Shooters wood is a real battler, wd, managed to beat the market with long run ;). What about the lexus? I only know flemenstar horse, had good win for me last time. |
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Good morning and merry Christmas.
Hopefully the racing will go ahead at Kempton tomorrow although it is looking that the ground will be very testing. Four selections, three of which are on Ch4 racing. 1.25 Milarrow 5/1 gen 2.00 Poungach 6/1 gen 3.10 Grands Crus 8/1 gen 3.45 Loose Chips 8/1 gen No long write-ups today, suffice it to say, I noted Milarrow as one to follow a little while back, Poungach on my figures has run faster than the fav, Grands Crus if back to his best should win with a few lengths to spare, and quite simply, Loose Chips I think, looks to be favourite for this, but isn't. |
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Afternoon and Merry Christmas FBF.
Just trying to keep my eye in today for betting in NEW YEAR! So will take on all Kempton races, though HEAVY going is the factor that will make them "trickier" than if GTS etc..... 12.50 - HUNG PARLIAMENT at the odds ...is "interesting" .....and ASKER too. RYSBRACK may well be suited to going.....and favourite may well win though. Gotta get a late breakfast on....GL with bets today. |
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Fav wins well .....my "guesses" not "good".
1.25 GROVE PRIDE EW....at the odds appears reasonable.MILARROW at bottom weight may go well on going. Nicholl's ELENIKA may well be close to winning......but GP may go well in pite of weight! |
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Fav backers "happy"! MILARROW running on ...but well beaten at distance....My "guesses" again no good!
2.00 - POUNGACH certainly appears to hold a winning chance....LOVCEN at the odds worth an EW. |
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Fav backers delirious at Kempton...............
2.35 -Punjabi EW..... All at level weights...so very tricky race. |
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Wrong Henderson horse in last
 !3.10Kauto Stone still appears to hold reasonable chance of winning. Not sure about CUE CARD.....on going.RIVERSIDE THEATRE is the danger to KS.....GRAND CRUS may find going too tough IMO ...but GL FBF. |
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Good race...another fav .....
Level weights races are for favs by looks of it!Generally |
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3.45
Saint Roque and Filbert.....with FAULTLESS FEELINGS an interesting one at weights. |
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Wrong 6 yo won
....Just one of those days!!!!!Good racing though! Tough races for good odds winners FBF....GL on next selections. |
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Oooooooooooopssssssssssssssssssssssss...very well done on the last race FBF.....Been doing stats .....and not concentrating to much on racing!!!!
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Good to see you got a winner loose chips. Long run very deserving winner,
would of been a shame to lose after only 1 mistake, goodluck in 2013 |
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Evening all.
Been busy on here today..... Am sticking with Menorah for the 2.05 at Kempton tomorrow, fingers crossed (going aside) that I've got this one sussed. 9/2 looks more than fair to me. |
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Menorah seems to be in with a very good chance of winning with HUNT BALL at the odds worth a cover bet.
Going will make it a close finish probably! GL FBF |
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Top selection FBF
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Thanks DF,
always nice when it comes together like that. |
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Good evening
Let's hope I can carry on the bit of good work from the last few days, weather permitting of course. Am working tomorrow so won't be able to make any changes unless I'm home early. Doncaster 2.25 Who Owns Me 5/1 generally Newbury 3.15 African Gold 5/1 generally |
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Good evening.
Doesn't look like I've any more bets lined up for this year, so will be leaving 2012 on a winning note. Fingers crossed for a winning start to 2013 and hopefully a decent year ahead. Good luck everyone for next year, whatever your sport and betting strategy. |
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Struck gold as usual, wd with menora. looks good horse that winner today.
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Why? What happened?
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