Afternoon

Finally updated this crashingly bad day.

Losing 16% of current bank in 1 day is a pretty hard blow to take, however, the bank is only down 30% from it's highest point after an extraordinarily bad run of things.

In a strange sense this actually gives me more confidence as this show's that the staking plan works well in safeguarding the bank after a shocking couple of weeks.

Anyway, no point crying over spilt milk! You are always going to have such bad days, weeks months even so you should expect that bad run to be just around the corner!......

It's easy to lay a full house of losing lays but a bit tougher when all your lays start winning!

Anyway, hopefully it won't take too long to re-coup losses and get the bank to a new high point :-)

Day 91

Monday 13th July 2009

Starting Bank: £5,000
Bank: £11,368.57
Bank High: £16,460.78


Today's Stakes Remain The Same:

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60
Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14
Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68
Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22
Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76
Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30
Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84
Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38
Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92




Todays Selections:

Newton Abbot:

2.45 Mhilu 4.6 £121.68 10/3 W  (-£438.04)
3.15 Super Ross 5.2 £121.68 7/2 W  (-£511.05)
3.45 Spare Change 5.7 £115.22 4/1 W  (-£541.53)
4.15 Dark Energy 8.0 £82.30 (op 8) 11/1 L ;-)


Ayr:

5.00 Sion Hill - Abandonded


Windsor:

6.30 Dancing Wave 6.2 £115.22 5/1 L ;-)
7.30 Diktalina 7.2 £98.76 11/2 W  (-£612.31)


Wolverhampton:

7.50 Spic N Span 5.6 £115.22 4/1 W  (-£530.01)
8.50 Carleton 4.5 £148.14 3/1jf L ;-)



Todays Takings: £345.66 Less 5 % Comm. £328.77
Todays Losses: £2,632.94 :0
Profit/Loss: -£2,304.56
Bank: £11,368.57

Level Stakes:
Todays P + L Points -20.30 Points
Total P + L +169.50 Points

Todays Strike Rate 37.5%
Total Strike Rate 87.59%
Wins 551 - 629 Bets

Well, all the worst losing days to date seemed to have happened within a week of eachother! Sod's law but that's the way it goes.

Just a note re the £2k loss a couple of Saturdays ago - as you know I included that day as -£2k as 5 selections won on the day. Luckily I did not trade for 2 days prior to that and 2 days after that due to the tech problems I was having.

So my bank stands £2k above bank total on the thread, as would the thread total if I hadn't posted the incorrect selections that day.

Anyway, I'm only highlighting this fact as the £2k loss was due to a tech problem and not the system performance - anyway, all will be recouped asap :-)

Day 93

Tuesday 14 th July 2009

Starting Bank: £5,000
Bank: £10,139.39
Bank High: £16,460.78


Today's Stakes Remain Unchanged:

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £164.60
Prices from 3.6 to 4.5 lay to 0.9% of bank - backer's stake £148.14
Prices from 4.6 to 5.5 lay to 0.8% of bank - backer's stake £121.68
Prices from 5.6 to 6.5 lay to 0.7% of bank - backer's stake £115.22
Prices from 6.6 to 7.5: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £98.76
Prices from 7.6 to 8.5 lay to 0.5% of bank - backer's stake £82.30
Prices from 8.6 to 9.5: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £65.84
Prices from 9.6 to 10.5 lay to 0.3% of bank - backer's stake £49.38
Prices from 10.6 to 11.5 lay to 0.2% of bank - backer's stake £32.92




Todays Selections:

Beverley:

3.15 Half A Crown 8.0 £82.30 8/1 L ;-)
4.15 Pseudonym 6.6 £98.76 6/1 W :-( (-£553.05)
4.45 Addikt 5.4 £121.68 4/1 L ;-)
5.45 Sheka Star 9.4 £65.84 8/1 L ;-)


Brighton:

3.30 Mick Is Back 7.0 £98.76 5/1 W :-( (-£ 592.56)
4.00 Joss Stick 7.6 £82.30 6/1 W :-( (-£543.18)


Yarmouth:

7.20 Triple Dream 4.4 £148.14 11/4 L ;-)
8.20 Quince - NR


Southwell:

7.40 Cool Art 9.2 £65.84 16/1! L ;-)



Todays Takings: £483.80 Less 5 % Comm. £459.61
Todays Losses: £1,688.79
Profit/Loss: -£1,229.18
Bank: £10,139.39

Level Stakes:
Todays P + L Points -13.20 Points
Total P + L +156.30 Points

Todays Strike Rate 62.50%
Total Strike Rate 87.59%
Wins 556 - 637 Bets

Good Man PP - I am keeping the faith!

I had a bit of reverse luck in that I had all those selections on the Saturday and I missed a really good week when I was on holidays in Greece!

Your overall figures speak for themselves and it is over the long-term that this will work.

WD again so far. Onward and upwards! :-)

Hopefully will get todays ones before I head off cruising down the Shannon. :-)

PP doesn't even stir himself a coffee until the church bell chimes twelve :(

kingfish 17 Jul 16:20
interesting selections, first one in but a bigish price , i tend to go for odds on favs that i think might get beat , they tend to be about the same price the bookmakers whereas longer priced horses can be much greater odds with betfair so better value , there have been to odds ons today one winner and one loser


Hi Kingfish

Each to their own mate :-) I have tried to lay only shorties in the past but the losing runs seem to be too long. Laying odds on especially, 12 or more losing lays in a row is not uncommon.

I don't actually lay odds on nor lay against them. In fact I just leave races alone which have an O/O fav.

I know that a lot of people don't like to lay over say 4.0 on BF but I argue that the best value found is between around 4/1 and 10/1. You would be surprised at how little over SP you have to give on some lays if you take your time.

Steve


Money Chaser 17 Jul 20:28
Icelandic close but no cigar :-)

:-)





Sligo 17 Jul 20:29
WD PP - full house again today. :-)


Cheers Sligo :-)


geordiemidland 17 Jul 20:45
been away a few days well done you keep going never mind the nockers


Dont worry mate - I love the knockers ;-)


Money Chaser 17 Jul 20:50
Am risking 1% of my bank for each selection. This seems similar to your staking plan. Is this the way forward?

Hi Money Chaser

I think that risking 1% of your bank is a very good strategy to employ for laying and also backing come to that.

Although some would say that 1% is too conservative, I think that its a very good amount to risk. 1% is not over exposing yourself at all and I think from a pshychological point of view its a small anough fraction of your bank to deal with when the inevitable losing runs come along.

Steve



Ivor 17 Jul 21:27
minding nockers has been one of his problems :)


:-)


kingfish 17 Jul 21:36
well done , no winners one non runner i think but well done

Thanks King

I've been watching a free BACKing trial for two days - and the results are very impressive. It's a website and you could register yourselves if you wish. I do not have any connexion at all with this fella or his site - was sent to me by e-mail. Makes no difference to Ifor whether you look or not.
NE1 interested?

from 17th: (actual betfair prices I recorded at offish)
H2.20 Gunner WON 2.7
N3.20 lost @3.7
N3.55 2.4 won
H6.55 2.5 won
P7.05 lost @3.5
N7.15 2.7 won
H7.25 3.7 won
H9.00 lost @3.1
P9.10 5.3 won

today:
N2.00 2.84 won
N2.20 3.40 won
R2.30 lost @6.00
M2.40 7/4f won
N3.05 lost @2.6
R4.00 Fortuni next

That's an AWESUM lot of points :) and an unusual website.

Joining you in the 520 but with a different beast (last time this happened, we both scored!)

Taking on BINIOU. Won last time out but was carrying just 8-8 and catching Captain Dunne in the last furlong. On race check, Captain Dunne has run since on good to soft and lacked impact. Biniou finds itself with a big step up in weight and a first time jockey (Jamie Spencer). Equuleus Pictor has run consistently on the last three outings winning two of three in less than perfect conditions. Jack Dean will be steering for the 19th time dating back to April 2008. Taking the last run out of form, Affluent has been showing improvement on each outing and todays going, especially after a day of racing, should suit. Further support on the lay Mattamia took charge on the last two outings and won both with two and four lengths to spare. The horse should be expected to stick to tactics though todays field will be its most challenging to date. Biniou to be outpaced from the early going and is todays lay. Good luck on your selections.

very well done indeed , dont like to follow anyone elses tips but i shall ceretainly keep an eye on your thread

Well done Steve and, well, ivor. Just walked back from watching the race at Willie's.

two more runners in the field and Spencer probably wouldn't have been able to hug the outside as he did. Lack of pace from the two leaders in the market helped Spencer to keep a touch more in reserve (he didn't go until there was just Mattamia to beat). A perfectly timed run.

You might want to put Mattamia in the books. That horse is a machine and I can see it holding onto a spot in the frame every time. Look for the ew value in the future.

since I wrote - another two winners at 415 (evens) and 450 (15/8).
Not sure I should name it outright - but it's couk not com.
Eight letters and the first four are a famous Bertram Mills Circus clown.
The last four are what you get from tipsters.

co co tips co uk

then u mist the 2/1 winner at 7.55 :(

www.cocotips.co.uk

All I wanna know is how he does it - nothing moor!

With Coco Tips, I identified that progressive staking is the ONLY staking system that can provide daily profit as well as monthly profits,

er, wine gone....champagne started.....couldn't drive a car but can tell you that is not true.

Fact remains if your selections cannot make a positive ROI or a profit on level stakes, you do not have the ability to choose winners.

Good luck to all that chase the dragon.

great thread this --keep it going .

i wouldnt give my user name and pass word to him tho he could nick your money

you'll learn the hard way

+17.37 points at level stakes (net 5% comm) from 20 bets. 86% ROI.

captain henry goes dow two