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I backed
Petrova 1.75 |
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I backed
Dulko 1.67 |
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I backed
Tsonga 1.64 |
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I backed
S.Williams 1.35 |
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I backed
Wozniacki 1.19 |
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Have you changed your system now that you've backed Wozniacki?
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I backed
Almagro 1.64 |
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I backed
Monaco 1.55 Chakvedatze 1.76 |
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CurlyBlues 11 May 16:43
Have you changed your system now that you've backed Wozniacki? once I wanted to have a retirement in my favour :) ddidn't ork out :( cheers |
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Horselover, I reckon if you take a level loss on losers earlier and let winners ride you would be in profit. What do you reckon?
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Horselover, I reckon if you take a level loss on losers earlier and let winners ride you would be in profit. What do you reckon?
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also back no lower than 1.4/1.45
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M.Sanchez = scratch trade 3rd set
Rybarikova = scratch trade 1st set TB Hernandez = winner Pavlyuchenkova = loser :( Ljubicic = winner Soderling = canceled because he played vs Navarro instead Andreev Mauresmo = winner Vesnina = winner Petrova = scratch trade 2ns set Dulko = scratch trade 1st set TB Tsonga = winner S.Williams = loser 4-6 retired :( Wozniacki = no bet because Peer retired in 1st set :( Almagro = loser :( Monaco = winner Chakvedatze = scratch trade 2nd set |
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scrooge_mcduck 11 May 20:49
also back no lower than 1.4/1.45 this could be a point mate, I will have to check this out. cheers |
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Tennis: -USD242.60 Total P&L: -USD242.60
Tennis Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets of 495 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($) Tennis / Stosur v Chakvetadze : Match Odds 11-May-09 19:00 11-May-09 23:34 -41.26 Tennis / F Lopez v Monaco : Match Odds 11-May-09 21:00 11-May-09 23:21 317.46 Tennis / Kohlschreiber v Almagro : Match Odds 11-May-09 17:45 11-May-09 21:03 -804.00 Tennis / Schiavone v S Williams : Match Odds 11-May-09 15:30 11-May-09 18:34 -600.00 Tennis / Groenefeld v Petrova : Match Odds 11-May-09 13:30 11-May-09 17:16 -60.42 Tennis / Tsonga v Safin : Match Odds 11-May-09 14:15 11-May-09 16:39 369.42 Tennis / Hantuchova v Dulko : Match Odds 11-May-09 12:15 11-May-09 16:33 -3.30 Tennis / Razzano v Vesnina : Match Odds 11-May-09 13:15 11-May-09 15:44 386.72 Tennis / Mauresmo v Sugiyama : Match Odds 11-May-09 14:00 11-May-09 15:25 144.30 Tennis / Lepchenko v Rybarikova : Match Odds 11-May-09 11:00 11-May-09 14:37 0.11 Tennis / Ljubicic v Gabashvili : Match Odds 11-May-09 12:15 11-May-09 14:20 311.68 Tennis / Pavlyuchenkova v Peng : Match Odds 11-May-09 12:00 11-May-09 13:52 -600.00 Tennis / Vinci v Martinez Sanchez : Match Odds 11-May-09 11:00 11-May-09 13:03 30.78 Tennis / Hernandez v Vassallo Arguello : Match Odds 11-May-09 11:00 11-May-09 12:45 305.91 Tennis: -USD5,966.37 Total P&L: -USD5,966.37 |
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just for info, the retirements against me.
Errani Youzhny Llodra Czink Lisicki Kanepi Stepanek S.Williams ---------------- about 5200- :( the retirements to my advantage are about 3. I need to check it. |
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horselover
i supported you early in this thread but warned you about your staking Please rethink before it all goes |
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So you have wasted all day again just to make another loss. Well done horselover, keep up the good work
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grahamwestleyisthemessiah 11 May 22:34
So you have wasted all day again just to make another loss. Well done horselover, keep up the good work Get a grip and leave the chap alone. he hasn't wasted all day , he s retired and enjoys watching the tennis. He has already said he is not losing money that he can't afford , so whats the problem. does it make you feel big to pass throw away comments. If you have nothing positive to say or nothing constructive skip the thread. |
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Unlucky horse lover still enjoy watchin this thread
Alot wud have givin up by now stick to wat u r doin however tht advice from scrouge_mcduck is worth loooking at. Could see you improving. Good Luck mate Rob |
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Horts 12 May 00:07
horselover i supported you early in this thread but warned you about your staking Please rethink before it all goes Horts, I remember you, you are one of the nice guys here :) there is no way to change the staking. only to reduce the initial amount. I learned to stick to a strategy, to be sure that it is working or not. if you believe it ot not I am still convinced that it will work out. tbh, I didn't reckon with so many retirements against me. no retirements = almost no loss right now. so the strategy still looks good , imho. thanks for the posting and good luck to you thanks |
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dlarssonf 12 May 01:15
grahamwestleyisthemessiah 11 May 22:34 So you have wasted all day again just to make another loss. Well done horselover, keep up the good work Get a grip and leave the chap alone. he hasn't wasted all day , he s retired and enjoys watching the tennis. He has already said he is not losing money that he can't afford , so whats the problem. does it make you feel big to pass throw away comments. If you have nothing positive to say or nothing constructive skip the thread. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- dlarssonf, thank you very much for jumping in and finding clear words for people like this. I thought this would go without saying. but looking at the Koo... thread, those people killed the thread there :( all the best for you |
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ROB_D 12 May 01:23
Unlucky horse lover still enjoy watchin this thread Alot wud have givin up by now stick to wat u r doin however tht advice from scrouge_mcduck is worth loooking at. Could see you improving. Good Luck mate Rob ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rob, thanks for the kind and well meant words. if I remember right, you were the one who mentioned the same like mcduck. I will look in this for sure. my problems are right now the retirements :( does anybody knows a site where the injured players are listed? good luck Rob |
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Czink only retired against Medina Garrigues after losing the first set.
She was underdog at odds of 4+. How did that retirement go against you? |
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Tennis / Medina Garrigues v Czink : Match Odds 01-May-09 17:15 01-May-09 18:06 258.94
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I backed
Schiavone 1.44 |
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I backed
Szavay 1.83 |
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bib 12 May 10:40
Czink only retired against Medina Garrigues after losing the first set. She was underdog at odds of 4+. How did that retirement go against you? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- bib, very disappointing the way you formulated the posting :( it looks that you caught me :) it was a simple mistake without any intention :) ok, what now? we have now 7 instead 8 retirements. deduct 600 from 5200. still a lot, imho and I will need years to get even if I would wait for retirements in my favour :( you should know the maths. to give you an example, how I would have formulated the posting if I were you. -horselover, I think you have a mistake regarding the retirements, its not a big deal but for the records maybe important.- |
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I'd have formulated it something like:
horselover stop aftertiming about retirements. They are part and parcel of the sport and saying you'd be winning without them is like saying: 'I'd be be in profit if I only backed the winners'. |
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I wasn't trying to question your honesty horselover, I wouldn't do that. I was sort of trying to be funny.
To add to what CurlyBlues said, I'd say that's it's a bold assumption to state that all those selections would have won, had they not retire. |
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[i]bib 12 May 11:28
I wasn't trying to question your honesty horselover, I wouldn't do that. I was sort of trying to be funny. To add to what CurlyBlues said, I'd say that's it's a bold assumption to state that all those selections would have won, had they not retire. [/i bib, ok, sorry for understanding it wrong. but the fact is that those retirements are a full loss for me.] cheers |
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CurlyBlues 12 May 11:20
I'd have formulated it something like: horselover stop aftertiming about retirements. They are part and parcel of the sport and saying you'd be winning without them is like saying: 'I'd be be in profit if I only backed the winners'. stupid posting and not worth an answer. show me your last 500 bets :) |
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As of April Novak Djokovic has lost 55 ATP Main Tour and Grand slam matches. Of those 5 were via retirement which is roughly 9%. Of those 5, 3 were when he was within 4 games of losing the match. Nicolay Davydenko has lost134 matches, 14 (or 7%) were via retirement of which 6 were when he was trailing.
Retirements cannot be accounted for. Occasionally there is news before a match of an injury at which point you can begin to contemplate the idea. For instance last week you bet on Daniel Brands because there was news that Potito was 'injured' and he had gone from a 1.6 favourite to a 3.4 dog. In those cases they can be accounted for, although given you openly admit to just jumping on at any price whether you take notice of any of this information is doubtful anyway. Therefore, to suggest that if there were no retirements you would be in profit is simply unreasonable. The players who retire the most generally do so only in single digits % of their losses and roughly half of those are retirements as they are about to lose at points where you would either have already scratched or were about to lose anyway. This is of course assuming that the player retiring is the favourite. To dismiss my comment is a mistake because you wont be able to account for a rolled ankle no matter how hard you try. As for other injury concerns if they are known pre-match they are factored into the price you get on your favourite. I hope this helps in some way. |
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That data was April 2008*
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I backed
Robredo 1.43 Mathieu 1.58 Seppi 1.59 |
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What about Verdasco mate? Think he'll win rather easily today :)
gl! |
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A useful thread for promoting the obvious benefit of paper trading new stategies. Credit to you for keeping the running total going, unlike Rome's thread where the reader has to do their own analysis to discover his losses.
I've only skimmed through the thread but it appears you believe your edge lies within your exit strategy - have you done any analysis to see what your overall position would be had you not placed any pre-match bets and only placed your exit bets? |
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When backing favs the retirements will almost always work against you.
This is because the chance of a player retiring is not reflected in the way the rules work (1 set completed). On average its probably fair to assume that all the bets you have placed had an equal chance of your fav retiring vs the underdog retiring. When the fav retires you lose your whole stake. When the dog retires you only get your winnings at odds on. Its a simplistic (and very poorly worded!) argument but hopefully you can see what I mean. |
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Kukken 12 May 13:00
What about Verdasco mate? Think he'll win rather easily today gl! yes, but he starts after the Robredo match, still time. thanks and best of luck mate |
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Lily of the Valley 12 May 13:03
A useful thread for promoting the obvious benefit of paper trading new stategies. Credit to you for keeping the running total going, unlike Rome's thread where the reader has to do their own analysis to discover his losses. I've only skimmed through the thread but it appears you believe your edge lies within your exit strategy - have you done any analysis to see what your overall position would be had you not placed any pre-match bets and only placed your exit bets? --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lily, thanks for posting and the well meant opinion.really didn't understand the A useful thread for promoting the obvious benefit of paper trading new stategies would you mind to explain? english is not my mother language. thanks for the very interesting idea! to place only the exit bets :) I will think about it and check it. regarding the Rome thread, my opinion is that he is doing a decent research for his selections. but I don't know how one can make profit with those picks? good luck |