I backed

V.Williams 1.42

Tennis: -USD353.39 Total P&L: -USD353.39


Tennis Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets of 444 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($)
Tennis / Dabul v Karlovic : Match Odds 07-May-09 21:00 07-May-09 23:00 253.44
Tennis / V Williams v A Radwanska : Match Odds 07-May-09 21:30 07-May-09 22:48 241.92
Tennis / Safina v Martinez-Sanchez : Match Odds 07-May-09 16:30 07-May-09 20:22 -0.01
Tennis / De Bakker v Hewitt : Match Odds 07-May-09 16:35 07-May-09 19:55 144.00
Tennis / Simon v Fognini : Match Odds 07-May-09 18:00 07-May-09 19:26 288.01
Tennis / Serra v Monaco : Match Odds 07-May-09 15:30 07-May-09 18:42 -413.04
Tennis / Clement v Cipolla : Match Odds 07-May-09 15:30 07-May-09 18:22 -600.00
Tennis / Azarenka v Kanepi : Match Odds 07-May-09 15:15 07-May-09 17:43 6.77
Tennis / Gicquel v Blake : Match Odds 07-May-09 15:45 07-May-09 17:21 408.95
Tennis / Benneteau v Brands : Match Odds 07-May-09 14:00 07-May-09 16:26 3.72
Tennis / Daniel v Ljubicic : Match Odds 07-May-09 14:15 07-May-09 16:07 -600.00
Tennis / Kuznetsova v Jankovic : Match Odds 07-May-09 14:00 07-May-09 15:50 512.85
Tennis / Groenefeld v Lisicki : Match Odds 07-May-09 13:00 07-May-09 13:55 -600.00


Tennis: -USD2,634.14 Total P&L: -USD2,634.14

I backed

Makarova 1.95

I backed

Kutznetsova 1.45

I backed

V.Williams 1.53

Seppi 1.41

I backed

Cilic 1.51

Tennis: USD632.64 Total P&L: USD632.64


Tennis Showing 1 - 11 of 11 markets of 455 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($)
Tennis / Chardy v Cilic : Match Odds 08-May-09 16:45 08-May-09 20:41 -80.97
Tennis / Simon v Montanes : Match Odds 08-May-09 16:15 08-May-09 20:39 -56.36
Tennis / Safina v V Williams : Match Odds 08-May-09 17:00 08-May-09 20:22 -600.00
Tennis / Seppi v Daniel : Match Odds 08-May-09 16:15 08-May-09 18:59 236.16
Tennis / Hernandez v Capdeville : Match Odds 08-May-09 15:00 08-May-09 17:20 -183.72
Tennis / Cipolla v Karlovic : Match Odds 08-May-09 15:00 08-May-09 16:36 345.60
Tennis / Brands v Starace : Match Odds 08-May-09 14:15 08-May-09 16:26 94.25
Tennis / Kuznetsova v Azarenka : Match Odds 08-May-09 14:30 08-May-09 16:12 259.20
Tennis / Youzhny v Mathieu : Match Odds 08-May-09 13:00 08-May-09 15:27 51.96
Tennis / Vliegen v Kubot : Match Odds 08-May-09 13:00 08-May-09 15:04 19.32
Tennis / Groenefeld v Makarova : Match Odds 08-May-09 13:15 08-May-09 14:28 547.20


Tennis: -USD2,001.50 Total P&L: -USD2,001.50

Hi Horselover

You seem like a serious bettor judging by the number of bets you have placed during this entire thread, but I'm wondering what the point of all this is.

If it's just a bit of fun, then fair enough. But if you're in this to actually make some money, then how long have you estimated it will be before you start seeing any profit? It's been three months now and I think during that entire time you've only been in the black for a couple of days.

I suppose the question is: How long does it take before deciding whether a system is working or not?

ebasson61 09 May 00:18


Hi Horselover

You seem like a serious bettor judging by the number of bets you have placed during this entire thread, but I'm wondering what the point of all this is.

If it's just a bit of fun, then fair enough. But if you're in this to actually make some money, then how long have you estimated it will be before you start seeing any profit? It's been three months now and I think during that entire time you've only been in the black for a couple of days.

I suppose the question is: How long does it take before deciding whether a system is working or not?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

good morning ebasson61

thanks for the question, because you have a point there. but first I have to correct you, I started here 2 month ago. and yes I want to make money here.

I am not a stats guy, but my opinion is that even if I am at the end of a year not in the black and only a low percentage in the red, I think it still doesnt tell me that the strategy is not good.

one guy said that at the end I will make money for betfair. so what? everyone is giving betfair their part :)

the difference to betfair and a casino in Las Vegas is, that betfair will not give me any complimentary.

if I will have a steady downmove, then its time to stop and rethink the startegy. imho, there is no steady downmove yet that I can see.
I think the strategy is a slow upmove one.

there is no strategy without downmoves, even if they are for a few month. sure there are the arbers, courtsiders etc.

and as I said before, even if I am at the end even, comission paid I think that is very good for me. I am sure there are many out there with big losses that would wish to be in this situation not losing a penny.
I am already retired. if I lose my bank, I have another bank to start again if I want. this is a big advantage, not to make a living out of the betting. but for sure it is nicer to succeed.

I am still very confident that I will be in the black at the end. and please understand that I could do it also with 6000 instead of 600 as an initial bet. then even a small win will be a big win moneywise. I will try to go steady up with my initial betting size, as soon I will reach a given plus.

Discipline, Patience and Balls thats what is needed :)

and if all the other people here in this thread are right at the end that I will lose the bank roll with my strategy, I will still have to eat and lost my money and not someone else money.

so lets wait and see and please have patience with me :)

best of luck

Morning horselover

I hope you don't think I was being too critical, as I think you deserve a lot of credit for the discipline and patience you have shown throughout this thread.

I agree that all strategies will have ups and downs and that we shouldn't be diverted from a full and thorough test of a system simply if we have a couple of downturns. You mention the bet size, but I don't think that's an issue really. If you have an edge, then you can succeed with a £2 bet or a £20,000 bet.

You ask how much you should be in the black by now, but I don't think that's a valid question. Personally, I always assess my strike rate against the average odds I'm getting (which I accept is not always easy to do if trading). For example, to gauge the minimum odds you require based on your current win rate would be:

(loss rate / win rate) + commission rate + 1

Obviously to gauge the minimum win rate required based on your average odds is the inverse. Anyway, GL to you.

ebasson61, that calculation is exactly what I was looking for-thanks! I have a good percentage win rate but need to know what odds I need to back at.

I am still torn between trading and outright betting at the moment tho. Most of the time my trades win anyway but it does prevent one or two bigger losses.

Would really like some opinions as to what people think is more profitable or whether it even makes a difference.

... Or the higher the bet the higher the loss (if they think they have an edge but don't).

ebasson61 09 May 13:38


... Or the higher the bet the higher the loss (if they think they have an edge but don't).


:D

Horeslover, my comment of a couple of days ago suggesting you were making too many bets was inaccurate as you suggest but what I think I meant was too many bets at low odds.

If you use the formula that ebasson suggested and only backed the favs at prices above this do you think you would be in profit?

scrooge_mcduck 09 May 14:09


Horeslover, my comment of a couple of days ago suggesting you were making too many bets was inaccurate as you suggest but what I think I meant was too many bets at low odds.

If you use the formula that ebasson suggested and only backed the favs at prices above this do you think you would be in profit?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

scrooge,
I have to check this, and as I said I am not the stats guy :(

thanks for the question

I backed

Karlovic 1.34

I backed

Berdych 1.69

scrooge_mcduck 09 May 11:15
ebasson61, that calculation is exactly what I was looking for-thanks! I have a good percentage win rate but need to know what odds I need to back at.

I am still torn between trading and outright betting at the moment tho. Most of the time my trades win anyway but it does prevent one or two bigger losses.

Would really like some opinions as to what people think is more profitable or whether it even makes a difference.

Trading involves less volatility and some hardcore traders would struggle to be hardcore position takers - its simply much harder on you on the days where you make some fantastic bets, know you have had a lot of value, but still lose money.

However, with the onset of the betfair premium charge, trading may well be "taxed" at a higher level than outright position taking betting. Therefore in financial gain terms, you may well be better off outright betting.

It should also be said though that a good trader can make negative EV bets to open a trade if he/she spots a correct trend - in a "castles in the sky" way, just because the price "should" be 1.0617, I can lay 1.14 if I "know" using my judgement that the price will be 1.15+ within a few seconds. A position taker has to put up with the negative EV bets.

Classic example I spotted on TV yesterday - a very hot fav in a race at Chester i think it was. Was being led down to the start by 2 stable hands, looked a little nervy. The commentary was solely focused on it, and the commentator started saying how it looked a bit edgy. He then said "I bet this is on the drift". It reversed the trend temporarily and took the horse from 2.36 to about 2.50 within a few seconds. However the main trend then kicked back in as the horse approached the stalls, and the eventual betfair SP was about 2.04 or something. In the grand scheme of things laying 2.36 was idiotic (and as a position would seem a stupid one) but within the confines of the very small event, it was a smart move. Perhaps a good position taker just backs at 2.5 when it hit there and let it run.

I backed

Kutznetsova 1.67

I backed

Zheng 1.47

Petrova 1.45