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Treble_Underscore 12 May 13:34
When backing favs the retirements will almost always work against you. This is because the chance of a player retiring is not reflected in the way the rules work (1 set completed). On average its probably fair to assume that all the bets you have placed had an equal chance of your fav retiring vs the underdog retiring. When the fav retires you lose your whole stake. When the dog retires you only get your winnings at odds on. Its a simplistic (and very poorly worded!) argument but hopefully you can see what I mean. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Treble, the maths with the retirements in my case is, that I would need 2-3 retirements in my favor for one ret against me :( therefore it would be the best for me to cancel the ret rule and void each bet when a ret occurs. but it is like it is and I have to live with it, or find a cure :) thanks for the comment , always appreciated. |
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dlarssonf 11 May 23:15
grahamwestleyisthemessiah 11 May 22:34 So you have wasted all day again just to make another loss. Well done horselover, keep up the good work Get a grip and leave the chap alone. he hasn't wasted all day , he s retired and enjoys watching the tennis. He has already said he is not losing money that he can't afford , so whats the problem. does it make you feel big to pass throw away comments. If you have nothing positive to say or nothing constructive skip the thread. Did you miss the post where I urged horselover to stop this now while he has some of his bank left. You know he will lose it all with this crazy betting, I know he will lose it all with this crazy betting... only horselover fails to see that he cannot win in the long run. If urging someone to stop so they do not lose all their money is not positive then i do not know what is? |
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sorry for late posting
I backed Chardy 1.69 Verdasco 1.30 Berdych 1.34 |
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I backed
Karlovic 1.67 |
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I backed
Blake 1.66 |
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I backed
Jankovic 1.26 |
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I backed
Tsonga 1.63 |
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grahamwestleyisthemessiah 11 May 22:34
So you have wasted all day again just to make another loss. Well done horselover, keep up the good work Aggressive and saracastic comments like this one is not positive or helpful where I come from |
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I backed
Zheng 1.80 |
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Lily of the Valley 12 May 11:03
A useful thread for promoting the obvious benefit of paper trading new stategies. Credit to you for keeping the running total going, unlike Rome's thread where the reader has to do their own analysis to discover his losses. i took three separate months of rome's thread a while ago, at random, and went through all three thoroughly at the prices he had backed at (or said he had backed at) before the off. All three months showed a profit taking commission at 5%. Like i said, i did it at random, simply because i was curious as to the P&L. I do not know if he is in profit or loss overall. By the above comment i assume you have calculated the overall P&L, can you tell me what the loss is please? |
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I backed
Safarova 1.30 |
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Schiavone = winner
Szavay = scratch trade 2nd set Robredo = scratch trade 2nd set Mathieu = scratch trade 1st set TB he retired in 3rd Seppi = winner Berdych = winner Verdasco = winner Chardy = winner Karlovic = scratch trade 1st set 3-3 I didn't like the prematch drift Blake = winner Jankovic = winner Tsonga = scratch trade 2nd set Zheng = scratch trade with little red 2nd set Safarova = winner |
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Tennis: USD1,844.09 Total P&L: USD1,844.09
Tennis Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets of 509 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($) Tennis / Keothavong v Safarova : Match Odds 12-May-09 18:00 12-May-09 22:46 173.16 Tennis / Zheng v Mauresmo : Match Odds 12-May-09 17:45 12-May-09 21:10 -258.13 Tennis / Tsonga v Ljubicic : Match Odds 12-May-09 15:30 12-May-09 20:11 22.52 Tennis / Jankovic v Hantuchova : Match Odds 12-May-09 17:00 12-May-09 19:49 150.07 Tennis / Karlovic v Benneteau : Match Odds 12-May-09 15:30 12-May-09 19:43 26.09 Tennis / Blake v Hansecu : Match Odds 12-May-09 16:30 12-May-09 19:17 380.95 Tennis / Ferrero v Verdasco : Match Odds 12-May-09 14:15 12-May-09 17:38 173.16 Tennis / Garcia Lopez v Berdych : Match Odds 12-May-09 14:15 12-May-09 17:10 196.25 Tennis / Chardy v Acasuso : Match Odds 12-May-09 14:15 12-May-09 16:49 398.27 Tennis / Robredo v Fish : Match Odds 12-May-09 13:00 12-May-09 15:26 -31.80 Tennis / Mathieu v Fognini : Match Odds 12-May-09 13:00 12-May-09 15:14 2.44 Tennis / Seppi v Schwank : Match Odds 12-May-09 13:00 12-May-09 15:00 340.55 Tennis / Rezai v Szavay : Match Odds 12-May-09 12:00 12-May-09 14:27 16.59 Tennis / Kvitova v Schiavone : Match Odds 12-May-09 11:00 12-May-09 12:27 253.97 Tennis: -USD4,122.28 Total P&L: -USD4,122.28 |
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wow great day mate!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Almost 2k, a nice day today for you.
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yes, ** happens :)
thanks guys |
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a great day doesn't matter over the long term as we can see (if we inserted a graph) where this will end up. I wish you well horselover but still say your method is just a great commission earner for betfair
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buzzer 13 May 00:28
a great day doesn't matter over the long term as we can see (if we inserted a graph) where this will end up. I wish you well horselover but still say your method is just a great commission earner for betfair good morning buzzer, your opinion is very much appreciated, but I don't agree with you. don't we all pay comission? if I have 500 bets in 2 month and you have for example 50 bets during the same time, we both pay comission, but you paid less. for me it is the same, imho. like I said before , in Las Vegas I would sleep and eat on house :) what do I get from betfair? you know it :) yes a graph would be nice to see, but I can tell you, we will not see a steady decline. I am familiar with graphs from the stock market. so I know what a steady decline is. lets have patience and see who is right :) I know that some people here would like to be right, but they need to have patience too :) or to beg for more retirements against me. best of luck |
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Lily of the Valley
I thought about your idea, and its not so easy to implement it and very difficult to backtest it if at all. but I will try to papertrade it if it is possible. or is there any software like gruss etc. where one can bet with playmoney? anyway thanks for the idea cheers |
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horselover777 13 May 06:45
or to beg for more retirements against me No one maliciously wants you to lose money. |
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CurlyBlues 13 May 09:46
horselover777 13 May 06:45 or to beg for more retirements against me No one maliciously wants you to lose money. I didnt say you are one of those, but they exist. thats quite normal in a betting community. cheers |
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I backed
Schiavone 1.53 |
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I hope you succeed horselover but i'm afraid i don't see it happening with the way you currently stake/trade out of positions. I do hope you prove me wrong though then i can enjoy you gloating over my statements ;), all the best for today and the future
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I backed
Del Potro 1.56 Seppi 1.73 |
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buzzer 13 May 09:57
I hope you succeed horselover but i'm afraid i don't see it happening with the way you currently stake/trade out of positions. I do hope you prove me wrong though then i can enjoy you gloating over my statements , all the best for today and the future buzzer, thanks for the kind words. :) |
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I backed
Simon 1.34 |
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I backed
Cilic 1.72 |
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I back Kohlschreiber , as this is the revenge match, more info via www.betessence.com
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No chatname specified,
how can someone post without a nick? |
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I even dont know!!! I would liek a chatname. HMM :/
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I selected a nickname, however it is not visible in chat, only on myy screen, and there is no button to activate it :(
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No chatname specified 13 May 12:45
I selected a nickname, however it is not visible in chat, only on myy screen, and there is no button to activate it interesting, are youone of the founder of the service? |
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I backed
Petrova 1.76 |
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I backed
Blake 1.67 |
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I backed
Dementieva 1.42 |
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I backed
Ferrer 1.61 |
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I backed
Safina 1.30 |
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Schiavone = scratch trade 2nd set
Del Potro = winner 6-2 4-1 and Berdych retired Seppi = scratch trade 2nd set Simon = winner Cilic = scratch trade 2nd set Petrova = scratch trade 2nd set Blake = scratch trade 1st set TB Dementieva = 2nd set Ferrer = scratch trade 2nd set Safina = winner |
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Tennis: USD194.58 Total P&L: USD194.58
Tennis Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets of 519 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss ($) Tennis / Safina v Li : Match Odds 13-May-09 21:00 13-May-09 23:04 173.16 Tennis / Mauresmo v Dementieva : Match Odds 13-May-09 18:30 13-May-09 20:48 -43.06 Tennis / Ferrer v Monaco : Match Odds 13-May-09 16:45 13-May-09 20:16 -57.36 Tennis / Schnyder v Petrova : Match Odds 13-May-09 15:15 13-May-09 18:37 -140.16 Tennis / Blake v Karlovic : Match Odds 13-May-09 15:30 13-May-09 18:25 -3.57 Tennis / Kohlschreiber v Cilic : Match Odds 13-May-09 14:15 13-May-09 18:21 -78.89 Tennis / Fognini v Simon : Match Odds 13-May-09 14:15 13-May-09 15:57 196.25 Tennis / Seppi v Querrey : Match Odds 13-May-09 13:00 13-May-09 15:15 -26.53 Tennis / Dushevina v Schiavone : Match Odds 13-May-09 12:00 13-May-09 14:29 -150.00 Tennis / Del Potro v Berdych : Match Odds 13-May-09 13:00 13-May-09 14:23 324.74 Tennis: -USD3,927.70 Total P&L: -USD3,927.70 |
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finally I hit the target and my nickname is finally visible :), Kohlschreiber won, so the prediction by betessence was good once again, however I am really selective in tennis betting, as I used to play it professionaly until my 24
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