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I include form and and go back 33 matches, and I am nicely in profit this season. But if u show a profit, then good luck 2 u, no matter how u do it. I am not saying the way I do it is right, but I am happy with my prices in the long term.
Go saints |
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ok 33 is a sensible figure to use , good luck Tricky :)
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The way KP does it is correct, ie going back 33 or 32 matches and including form is correct
Thats the way I do it, and the prices I get r very accurate. |
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I also had Villareal 1.51
typo there ,actually 1.32 or i would n't have backed them |
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Bet 40: £15.83 Burnley@5.08 away to Bolton
Bet 41: £14.08 Portsmouth@2.48 v West Ham Bet 42: £26.47 Liverpool@1.69 away to Wolves Bank: £255.06 |
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Bet 43 (A): £20.75 (Liabilty) Lay of Everton@1.73 v Sunderland
(B): £11.86 Sunderland@6.13 Bet 44: £8.10 Wigan@4.23 away to Blackburn Bank: £214.35 |
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Bet 45: £5.25 Wolfsburg away to Hamburg
another half stake bet Bank: £209.10 |
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^
was 4.42 after commision forget to say |
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What price ?
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and 1.04 with 30 secs of injury time left!
Bet 46 (A): £12.28 (Liabilty) Lay of Bayern Munich@1.25 v Mainz. (B) £4.12 Mainz@17.15 ( I don't believe the top teams in Germany are the usual standard so prices as short as that not justified against team in 8th .I expect Home/Away specialist theory is a factor in the priceing but i don't believe in that) Bet 47: £8.44 Wigan@3.37 v Everton. ( Agree Everton should be favs but have Wigan just over 2/1) Bet 48: £13.79 Hull@2.40 v Wolves ( I rate these 2 equal ) Bet 49: £28.69 Liverpool @1.42 v Bolton ( still of the view that Liverpool's Decline not as severe or permanent as generally supposed) Bank: £141.78 |
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So unlucky tonight with that late goal. Keep going mate and best of luck to you :)
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ty Jinxy :)
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Bank: £182.73
All Time Low reached after 1 winning match from last 11 ( @1.42) Likely to get worse as opposing Chelsea and Barcelona next |
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Bet 50 (A): £12.70 (Liabilty) Lay of Chelsea@1.37 away to Burnley
(B): £5.13 Burnley@11.92 Bank: £164.90 |
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Bet 51: £12.73 (Liabilty) Lay of Barcelona @1.30 v Sp Gijon
Bank: £152.16 |
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Bet 52: £4.35 Genoa @4.8 away to Napoli
Bank: £147.81 |
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Worst Week I can remeber this
Bet 53: £8.57 Arsenal@2.36 v Man United Bet 54: £21.06 Villareal@1.77 v Osasuna Bank: £118.19 |
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Chin up.
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:D
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Really can't recall a worse week of betting . Lost on 15 of the last 16 matches . Of course lost far more money than that in a day let alone a week before , but can't remember anything like that in terms of strike rate. December/January 08-09 lost about £700 in a few weeks on the thread i was doing at the time , but think the worst sequence was something like 3/16 for winning games, probably at bigger average prices too.
Well i shan't bother with the half stakes on the foriegn matches anymore , losing most on England anyhow. Bet 55: £11.20 Seville@2.33 v Valencia Bank: £106.99 |
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Bet 56: £9.46 Sunderland@2.11 v Stoke
Bank: £123.63 |
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T, sometimes this game can take the p!ss out of you !!
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Well done for the sensible staking.
15/16 losers, a warning for any martingale mug if they ever needed one! |
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Bet 53: £8.57 Arsenal@2.36 v Man United
Please, please, please tell me this is a joke? You backed Arsenal at 2.36, please tell me this wasn't their SP. That can't be right, I left and they were 2.7. I backed United at 2.96. What price did they hit, and at what stage did you ever, ever, consider Arsenal were good value at 2.36. FFS. |
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What price did you make Arsenal, and why did you wait for the 2.36?
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You backed United at 2.96 ? Touched 3.4 on the off so you were'nt so smart, were you ?
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weren't*
I got very good value, and make football pay more than anyone I know on this site (obviously lots of people make a lot more than me, I am just yet to meet them). Betting a team at good value is a smart play. The fact the price went out 44 ticks is the nature of betting prior to official team line ups. Could well have gone in falsely 44 ticks. Law of averages. Are you suggesting that if you don't get the best price everytime that you are not smart. Seems fatally flawed that, mainly because, it is. |
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Hi mate. Well done on Seville. Hope that gets you back on track. Cheers
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Cheers Dennis, though i think it will take more than that to get this mess back on track :)
Angela, Ken wasn't saying people are mugs for not getting matched at the highest price, he was responding to you comment about me taking a price when it had been much bigger earlier.People take what they think is a value price when they see its available because they weren't around when it was much bigger earlier (which was the case with me) or because they have no way of knowing it was going to get any bigger ( which is what happened to you after taking 2.96 United). I made Arsenal 2.19 , backed themabout 2.42 (the 2.36 is after commission) , i was out and got in just before kick off.Yes, i could have taken 2.7 ish the evening beforebut i wanted to know the outcome of other bets i had running first, and i had no reason to suppose the Arsenal price would be bigger the next day. In the same fixture last season i saw Arsenal at 3.0 threee days before, thought that was amazing , backed it , then they were 3.65 two days later. |
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Bet 57: £12.74 Fulham @1.90 v Portsmouth
Bank: £110.89 |
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Bank: £135.12
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Bet 58: £9.99 (Liabilty) Lay of Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin
Bank: £125.13 |
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Bet 59: £26.51 Liverpool@1.93 v Everton
Bet 60: £36.48 (Liabilty) Lay of Bayern Munich@1.83 away to Wolfsburg Bet 61: £4.86 Fulham@3.61 away to Bolton Bet 62: £2.69 (Liablity) Lay of Man United@1.16 v Portsmouth Bet 63: £3.57 (Laibilty) Lay of Barcelona@1.21 v Getafe Bet 64: £2.01 Arsenal @4.8 away to Chelsea Bank: £49.01 Re the Munich bet, that is 37% of the bank , so something must be wrong there, either with the market or my ratings.More the latter i expect, but probably both .I make it a joint favourite match . I certainly think Bayern way overated, and that there is not a great deal between Top and 7th/8th in Germany (Wolfsburg are 11th but better than that indicates) . Bayern are the kind of price Chelsea would be at Everton , though they are well behind Chelsea surely and Wolfsburg comfortably superior to Everton. |
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Bank: £100.20
Lat 26 matches i have 4 winners ( three odds on and the other about 5/4) , pretty grim. Bet 65: £15.35 Fiorentina@2.50 v Roma Bank: £84.85 |
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ttt
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Angela Rebecchi 21 Jan 06:26
Quick question for whenever you are next here, what price would the home team be set at for the market to have the view that they are equal to the opposition? Ta. tobermory 23 Jan 02:42 I have it 2.19 Home and 3.78 Away in England. |
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I made Arsenal 2.19 , backed themabout 2.42 (the 2.36 is after commission) , i was out and got in just before kick off.Yes, i could have taken 2.7 ish the evening beforebut i wanted to know the outcome of other bets i had running first, and i had no reason to suppose the Arsenal price would be bigger the next day.
You therefore think Arsenal are as good as Man United? |
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yeah AR , just downgraded Arsenal in my rating s a bit recently since though :)
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:)
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we both taken the 2.2 on arsenal to beat liverpool though, yeah?
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