Bank: £235.34

Afternoon T.

Fair enough T....if that is how you do it..........however, with horse racing not "everything has a chance of winning" ( you could argue that if every other horse ran off course then such a no chance horse would win.......but thinking like that can damage your mental health.................).

I agree FOOTBALL is more open to either of 2 teams can win ( as well as DRAW) ........however, to bet that way means you will go by purely the "value in odds" etc........not convinced that should be first factor you look at.

IMO HULL were most unlikely to win.... ( needed to be 10-1 upwards in match market before a small bet might go on them for me.....and probably it would be a DRAW/HULL bet)....against a physical team such as BOLTON . Perhaps laying BOLTON was the bet ?????

Anyway , as I don't believe football has same betting opportunities as horse racing ( where "edge" definitely exists.....as opposed to football where "edge" is not as clear cut!), then I will get back in my cage and let K enjoy his moment of being "right".........without being "right" ]:) :D :D

Gl with bets

scotbet 30 Dec 11:30

Tober

Hull reached as high as 5.9 an hour before kick off and Bolton went to 1.79 too ......giving these prices ..would that have encouraged you to place more on ?

what i'm asking ...once you set the ratings up , which allows you to create a book ...is you staking based on the difference.

Yes it is . Might have put more on Hull* as ideally i would wait til nearer the time , but the problem since starting this is i ususally have to put bets on the night before , or as in the case of Hull, several hrs before kick off as i can't be here as often as a year ago .Back then i'd go in the q and request better odds and be able to monitor the market regulary ,I'm sure many of the teams i've backed have been much better prices later.

*though i think it distorts the point of using the kelly calculator to keep on betting as i'd end up betting a higher % of the bank on the selection than i would have if i'd just got 1 bet on at the top price.

DFC, yes every horse has a chance of winning too :) .I don't bother with Jumps Racing so won't back horses til April but i use the same principles of ratings/pricing up/value .

I priced up the Arc and these were 2 of the runners:

Steele Tango 87403.759
Tullamore 93663.264

So yes , imo , they had a chance to win the race , if i could have got 100000/1 i might have had a bit on.

And didn't you pick out a couple of 40 or 50/1 winning horses on a thread a couple of months back? A lot of people on here would have looked at those and said ' they might be value but they just won't win' .

Out of the last 50 home EPL matches at Old Trafford, they've only lost 3 times, to Liverpool, Villa, and City. It's not a place imho where you make Wigan a 14.5 chance.

The ones I pick T DO have a good chance to win ............and what other punters opinions are re their chances only helps keep odds high......as generally they don't have a clue!

So far last few days have caught -


Horse Racing Sthl 27th Dec : 1m Hcap Showing 1 - 5 of 5 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Highland River 36.00 2.00 Back 27-Dec-09 15:24 -2.00
Hint Of Honey 55.00 3.00 Back 27-Dec-09 15:24 162.00
Hint Of Honey 2.40 36.00 Lay 27-Dec-09 15:26 -50.40
Hit The Switch 4.00 3.00 Back 27-Dec-09 15:23 -3.00
Transmission 4.50 2.00 Back 27-Dec-09 15:25 -2.00
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 155.00
Lay subtotal: -50.40
Market subtotal: 104.60
Commission @ 4.8%: 5.02
Net Market Total: 99.58
========================================

Horse Racing Chep 28th Dec : 3m5f Hcap Chs Showing 1 - 8 of 8 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Ballyfitz 22.00 2.00 Back 28-Dec-09 14:14 -2.00
Dream Alliance 42.77 3.00 Back 27-Dec-09 21:33 125.31
Dream Alliance * 2.48 33.00 Lay -48.96 Flintoff 18.00 2.00 Back 28-Dec-09 14:18 -2.00
Halcon Genelardais 11.18 3.00 Back 27-Dec-09 21:37 -3.00
Le Beau Bai 5.10 2.00 Back 28-Dec-09 14:09 -2.00
Miko De Beauchene 40.82 3.00 Back 28-Dec-09 11:08 -3.00
The Tother One * 7.24 5.00 Back -5.00
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 108.31
Lay subtotal: -48.96
Market subtotal: 59.35
Commission @ 4.8%: 2.85
Net Market Total: 56.50
============================================


Horse Racing Chep 28th Dec : To Be Placed Showing 1 - 4 of 4 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Dream Alliance 7.11 4.00 Back 27-Dec-09 21:33 24.44
Dream Alliance 1.46 8.00 Lay 28-Dec-09 14:10 -3.68
Miko De Beauchene 7.11 4.00 Back 28-Dec-09 11:09 24.44
Miko De Beauchene 1.46 8.00 Lay 28-Dec-09 14:10 -3.68
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 48.88
Lay subtotal: -7.36
Market subtotal: 41.52
Commission @ 4.79%: 1.99
Net Market Total: 39.53
====================================================

Horse Racing Ling 30th Dec : 7f Hcap Showing 1 - 8 of 8 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Bold Rose 70.00 2.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:46 138.00
Bold Rose * 3.03 40.00 Lay -81.20 Cavalry Guard 8.40 2.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:52 -2.00
Dianes Choice 10.50 2.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:56 -2.00
Imperial Skylight * 10.90 5.00 Back -5.00
Inquisitress 9.80 2.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:49 -2.00
Tamino 5.70 2.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:48 -2.00
Well Of Echoes * 7.20 7.00 Back -7.00
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 118.00
Lay subtotal: -81.20
Market subtotal: 36.80
Commission @ 4.81%: 1.77
Net Market Total: 35.03


Horse Racing Ling 30th Dec : To Be Placed Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Bold Rose 16.00 2.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:50 30.00 Inquisitress 2.90 3.00 Back 30-Dec-09 13:50 -3.00
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 27.00
Lay subtotal: 0.00
Market subtotal: 27.00
Commission @ 4.81%: 1.30
Net Market Total: 25.70
==============================================

Horse Racing Taun 30th Dec : To Be Placed Showing 1 - 4 of 4 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Inspector Qics * 12.00 4.00 Back 44.00
Inspector Qics 1.60 12.00 Lay 30-Dec-09 15:57 -7.20
Lion On The Prowl * 7.60 4.00 Back 26.40 Milandale * 5.20 6.00 Back -6.00
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 64.40
Lay subtotal: -7.20
Market subtotal: 57.20
Commission @ 4.81%: 2.75
Net Market Total: 54.45
========================================================


I do not select them because of price first..........I pick them as I believe there are factors in their favour that give them a good chance to win against the field on the going , at the distance, in the class of race and in that type of race.........USUALLY THE ODDS ARE HIGH, AS THE MARKET GETS SUCH HORSES "WRONG" IN ODDS RELEVANT TO THEIR REAL CHANCE TO WIN/PLACE.


So T I strongly believe it is the combination of FIRSTLY a selection having a good chance to win , then SECONDLY the odds must be better than its' chance to win................In almost every race certain horses are unlikely to win..........and I disregard them.........as I believe I have a number of edges that do exist when it is down to horse racing from race to race.

FOOTBALL I have a good knowledge of and believe I can guess what certain teams are likely to do in first half..........and this is not a definite edge compared to horse racing.......but nevertheless I do believe you are better to FIRSTLY use your edge on a football selection, then SECONDLY , if the odds are in your favour etc, have a bet within bank size etc (KELLY STAKING diluted for football ).

I honestly cannot see any long term profits being made where you FIRSTLY go by the odds being "value" , then SECONDLY have no opinion on a football match. It is the wrong way round logic IMO.......

However, I wish you, and K, and other contributors to thread the very best in health and happiness in the new year......and to get a bit luck with bets........Who knows maybe K and your approach is "right" and I am "wrong" !!!!!!!!! :D :D :D

Cheers the noooooooooooo

Everything does have its price. Wigan at 14.5 away at Old Trafford against United who have lost 7 times there in the EPL in their last 115 matches, does not strike me as a realistic one. Its constructive criticism but this along with your HT/FT pricing algorithms seem to be skewed, and it will cost you in the long run.

No Ken :) , just don't fancy anything in The FA Cup with all the team changes and not knowing if even the Championship/League One teams are taking it seriously .

Angela , when i posted the bet i did say that i had doubts about Wigan and that maybe i should have had a lower rating for them (which would have meant they would have been a bigger price so less value) but that they are a hard team to make out as they have some impressive wins which other relegation candidates don't seem capable of.

As for the Man United stats , i don't dispute them , but that record going back a few years was put togrether by stronger teams than they have this season , and i wouldn't be suprised to see them lose at home to a bottom 6 side soon.

Thanks for the reply, and good luck with this thread. Any bets in the Carling Cup mate.

being a bit too picky with this , wanting 110 on the value index , so missed another one on Stoke :|

nothing much available this week

Bet 18: £3.99 @10.02 Everton away to Arsenal

I make Everton 8.70 , so a smal bet is recommended by the calculator.

I agree with the market on Birm v Man U.

Bet 19: £29.71 @1.57 Seville v Racing Santander

Don't have the same level of knowledge on Spanish Football so halved stake , but can't see how Seville can be so big at home to a team not much above relegation standard

Dont put all your bets on here you know we will only moch and ridicule you.

My venture into Spanish Football not begun well, but i shall continue.....

Still halving the recommended stakes on these those

Bet 20: £24.51 Deportivo @1.93 v Osasuna ( Market indicating these teams are closely matched, but Deportivo far superior imo)

Bet 21: £19.31 Espanyol @2.14 v Zaragoza ( again Espanyol much the better team i'd say, should be Odds On)

Bet 23: £8.00 (liabilty) Lay of Real Madrid @1.35 v Mallorca ( sort of price Barcelona should be and can't see RM being on that level yet).

Bank: £149.82

So start bank halved if none of those win.

ftr tobe how much higher do you rate barca than real madrid? At the moment.

Tobermory, do you compare your ratings with other ratings, for instance, Pullein, Spreads, RFO, ??

I always do my own prices and compare them with the aforementioned people. When I have a big difference, I have another look to see why. I also look on BF prices as ratings especially near kickoff, again seeking a difference between mine and their's. Last evening I had ManC at 1.41 whereas books and spreads were similar, yet BF punters in their wisdom, took the price to above 1.60 (near 8/13) making them very backable in my view. Unfortunately I had 3 other bets in the match and finished up losing small :(

Easter 1916 12 Jan 09:53


DFCIronman obviously doesn't read everything

Correction, DFCIronman doesn't read ANYTHING.

Easter 1916 - I suggest you and K read properly what has been posted......


T himself posted -


tobermory 24 Dec 02:03

Bet 10 Cancelled so bank went back to £385.20

Last year had a thread posting my Premier Lg Bets on the football forum, was over £2k up at Xmas . Boxing Day was where it all went wrong , particulary Arsenal blowing a 2-0 lead to an injury time equalizer, but there were several other losers and an awful day all round . Never really got betting back on track since that day .

This week my ratings are telling me again that the bet of the day is a HT/FT Bet , this one Liverpool v Wolves . I'm aware no one seems to like these bets, but as i said before , analysis i carried out found that the HT/FT price should be the match odds price multiplied by 2.3 .Though it was a while back , since then i've not noticed any worse results on my HT/FT bets than match odds .

My ratings method doesn't allow me to drop Liverpool (or anyone )too far , too quickly , so i am making them 1.20 to beat Wolves in 90 mins , and 1.46 HT/FT , as they are 1.85 for that Kelly Calculator requesting 31.01% of the bank for this bet

Bet 10: £119.44 @1.85 Liverpool HT/FT v Wolves
Bet 11: £25.95 @2.36 Wigan v Blackburn

Bank: £239.81

Several other games have a bet with a value index of 103-107 but don't like to bet under 110 so left them.
=======================================================

If you have "set in stone" ratios for each team re multiple times the match odds ......re HT/FT market, then that is just an illogical way to bet.

Each game should be appraised on its own merit.......and if you have an edge ....and believe there is a team that is very very likely to score first in 1st half.....then backing them HT/FT initially is a fair bet IMO.....far better than backing team in match market.

If you get that "wrong" then you will lose that bet, but you can have a hedge bet in case it is DRAW/ WIN for the selected team............or have a lay bet against the other team in match market ....or other ways to hedge.......

So people questioning the multiplyer used by T re HT/FT against match odds can say his multiplyer is wrong.......but the main thing with bet is that he gets it right on the fancied team to take lead 1st half first....... ..........................you can argue all you like on the multiplyer being wrong ......the main thing is that HT/FT bets offer value when you do have an edge.......if you don't have an edge like K....then makes no difference at all ...at all ]:) ]:) :D

Gl with next bet T.

Hard to see Liverpool as a 4/5 chance as you do Tober. I can understand your view on perhaps over reaction to Liverpool losing to Reading, but there must be other things going on at Anfield. 6/5 seems a fair price for troubled Reds.

STOKE area pretty battle hardened team T........and can score goals........

Looks a hard game for LIVERPOOL to win........don't really rate GERRARD when he is unfit or fit ( too predictable), but who takes his place???? TORRES been unfit for ages too.........and they really need to sign some strikers to have any chance to get a winning run together.

Their whole style of play is far too predictable.....too slow in putting sharp passes forward.......left full back makes runs forward , then passes ball back all the time .....totally has no idea what is required to get behind defence and put telling crosses in...... Kuyt takes too long to control a ball...looks awkward all the time when on ball....tends to pass back and sideways too often .......and again is so predictable for defenders to deal with.......

Aquilani is a breath of fresh air .....but unfortunately he has to play alongside players who take too long to control ball and don't make positive runs forward often enough for him to expoit chances. LIV are just a very very predicatable team..........................and STKE won't be frightened by them at all.

Probably a very tight match with few chances created for LIV.....STOKE are far more likely to score first IMO.........so a LAY on LIVERPOOL appears to be bet, covered by hedge bets in case they do win ...which IMO is unlikely ( STOKE have had more rest than LIV have had recently , so will be fresher team at start of match ....and likely to score first ).

GL T

Don't think your ratings are taking into account events at anfield right now. But no ratings system would be. Its edge of a cliff stuff, not the sort of thing that is built in to ratings.

What it does do I think is introduce volatility, volatility in their level of performance over and above normal. From my analysis of such games, that doesn't favour the favourite - and from my POV if I rated liverpool at odds on here I'd put my ratings system on hold for a while as far as 'pool are concerned.

I really think from a gut-feeling POV there's a better case for them being 11/8+ than there is them being odds on.

Not having a go tobe - some of the stuff you have posted in this thread is spot on and its one of the few worthwhile ones on here - just my 2ps worth. If you prove me wrong, fair play to you. I laid liverpool for this at 1.85 and I doubt i'll get to my price to trade out. Notwithstanding them being 2.22 now, I'd lay them at 1.85 all day for this game, in these circumstances, even with their underperforming megastars.