kenilworth 15 Jan 14:40
.so a LAY on LIVERPOOL appears to be bet, covered by hedge bets in case they do win

...which means, which means you win if Liverpool fail to win, but don't lose if they do win. Is that what you are saying ?
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Nope ...not saying that K.

What I am anticipating is STOKE taking the lead in match.............................thus my initial LAY on LIV is put in strong position.

If they are still level at HT, then i might adjust bets to take account of what I have seen during play.........

I am prepared to lose a small amount IF LIV take lead 1st half.......and they hold on to win.....but the final score could match one of my cover bets and I can make a profit on LIVERPOOL winning........................( main cover bet is LIV /LIVERPOOL.....because if they do raise game and play attacking football they could take lead 1st half......it is football and this can happen in this game)

I am hoping that STOKE take lead before HT and hang on til HT............I may or may not reduce liability on LIV lay ......

If STOKE are ahead HT , then I should make a profit no matter what final result is...........

I just like options to use if required IP...........................

LIVERPOOL are one of hardest teams for me to figure what they might do......so I could well be wrong on this match .....so my hedge bets MAY at least prevent a loss and might even give me a profit.....if LIV win....

GL with bets.

Looks a very defensive LIV team to start T............

I've chickened out main lay on LIV.......stil think it will probably be a DRAW and without bringing on talented players ( left on bench) it is hard to see LIV win this match now.

GL anyway and with all your bets.

laid liverpool at 2.08 - no hedge bets on a liverpool win, wtf is that about? gl tobes, one of us will be happy anyway.

Good luck today Tobermory.

does seem like sound advice

Bet28 (A) £5.73 Seville @9.55 v away to Barcelona
(B) £14.96 (Liabilty) Lay of Barcelona @1.38

Seville , 3rd best team in Spain , even with players missing given Barca 2 decent games i nthe Cup this year already. Really don't see the sort of gap in quality (prices were similar for Liverpool v Wolves) suggested by the market.

Still halving stakes on these Spanish Games.

Bank: £203.96

I got Liverpool @ 2.3 but they did go higher, not sure how high though.

Bet 29: £9.99 Xerez @6.89 away to Real Zaragoza

Xerez the worst team in the league , but RZ are the next worst , and goal difference doesn't suggest that Xerez are adrift from them.

Bank: £193.97

Nice thread mate. Been following with interest. Agree with you on this Have layed Spurs myself they are way under priced IMHO. Good luck, Cheers

cheers Dennis and Jinxy

Bet 31: £13.53 Aston Villa @1.69 v Blackburn

I make Villa 1.59 .

I'll be watching the Liverpool game though :)

Bank: £130.39

Nice work on Liverpool bud.

2.22 Angela in an english league game

I have it 2.19 Home and 3.78 Away in England

though last year i was using 2.25 and 3.80 so wouldn't argue with Treble-U :)

Bet 33: £24.43 Deportivo@2.34 v Bilbao

Home Team Odds On here by my ratings

Bank: £226.60

Nice one Tobermory, bank creeping up again :)

Yes i am not considering goal expectancy, don't know much about it tbh :)

Will happily read any articles you'd recommend on it if you have a link though.

My Ratings just reflect the difference % chance of winning the game:

0 difference = 2.91 for both teams

1 difference = 2.76 for the fav and 3.0 for their opponents .I have Chelsea at 100 and Man U at 99 so there is a difference of 1 and if they played at Wembley those would be my prices.

I've not read the book but Pullein 'discounts form' as well .I wouldn't argue that how a team played last week is more indicative of their abilty than how they played last May , but most people would not consider performance that far back at all, Pullein does , but attaches progressively more weight to more recent results, his opinion of 'form' (or what most people mean by it: the last 6 games) is that it is a poor guide to pricing up matches.

He has written a lot on sequences : notably that a team that has won (or lost) 4 games in a row , is only slightly more likely to win (or lose if on a losing run) Game 5 than they were to win or lose Game 1. That is assuming the same calibre of opposition. I agree with that but most punters would be happy to back the team on a winning run for the 5th game at far shorter odds than were available at the start of the sequence.

His main view is basically that teams have good and bad runs during the course of the season, but overall their results will pretty much reflect their abilty .

Re Liverpool v Spurs as i said i was happy to place that bet as Liverpool are a better team than Spurs . The Market considered Spurs to be superior . The Market was wrong .If the game was replayed with the same players i doubt you'd get more than 2.15 for Liverpool, as there would be a correction . For Deportivo v Bilbao i was pricing that up on Stats from last season and this , as i hadn't seen very much of the teams .Seemed to me Depor were the better team based on all that , the Market thought Bilbao were better . Maybe the market was made up of people who watch them regulary though as Bilbao looked far superior, had no luck , and were up against an awful referee. It's certainly often the case that the league table lies so maybe the odds were correct and i got lucky.

The Liverpool HT/FT Bet v Wolves was based on some research i did ages ago which seems to have been flawed.

yes i think Kenilworth did mention it before.

Bet 34: £27.67 Genoa @1.94 v Atalanta

This is a 'what am i missing' type of bet for me . It is the only Serie A Match that i'm out of line by any margin with the Market , so far out that i decided to only use 1/3 of the recommended stake. Actually regret doing that now , but as i've placed other bets since don't want to have any more on.Genoa are in 'poor form' the last couple of months , but during that time have played Inter , AC ,Napoli and Roma , so it is not as bad as it looks imo, and they should recover to finish Top Half comfortably. .Atalanta will probably be relegated so almost Evs for the home team is amazing , just thought it was 'too good to be true' so overcautious with the staking plan.

Bet 35: £33.63 Villareal @ 1.50 v Zaragoza .

Villa mid table presently but i rate them a lot better than that and Zaragoza are just as bad as 19th place suggests

Bet 36: £7.43 Xerez @3.32 v Osasuna

Don't see Xerez being as bad as Derby 07/08 so shouldn't be underdogs home to fellow strugglers.

Bet 37: £7.36 (Liabilty) Lay of Valencia @1.76 away to Tenerife

Bet 38: £3.37 Mallorca @2.99 Away to Espanol

Lat 2 bets marginal value but value all the same and i regret not doing those smaller bets earleir in the thread.

Bank: £204.53

Bet 39 (A): £3.73 Malaga@19.05 away to Real Madrid
(B): £10.55 (Liabilty) Lay of Real Madrid@1.20

Bank: £311.44

yeah that is for England

I was using about 2.80 last season but change it . You may be right indeed , will always review it from time to time.

Yes i have it different in different leagues

Genoa were 1.52 for me :) that would have been 80 odd £ bet with the full Kelly Stake, as i said that made me doubt my price , so lowered stake by 2/3 , though really looking at it , the difference was all about how you interpret form .I'm sure Genoa would have been areound 1.5 ten weeks back, so its a case of deciding wether they have deteriorated so much since then .I cannot see how that is possible.

I also had Villareal 1.51 , Valencia 1.93 .

You may be right about the differences , my ratings are quite volatile at the present as i haven't been doing the foriegn leagues seriously for long, whereas my English Ratings have been going for years.