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Bet 7: £38.08 Everton @3.11 HT/FT v Birmingham
Bet 8: £26.94 (Liabilty) Lay of Chelsea @1.44 at West Ham Bet 9: £13.24 Burnley @3.85 at Wolves Bank: £297.32 |
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Good luck mate but i think your bets today are terrible. Chelsea will smash West Ham and Birmingham on the handicaps. Everton half time full time, no chance.
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I very much doubt personally that the HT/FT carries any edge over the normal markets. But GL with it.
Can't have everton today, but your other bets look sharp, similar to the previous ones on the thread. (HT/FT excepted). Good luck, keep it up. 10000 times better than the usual fodder. |
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GL T ....on those 3 games I have as main bet -
DRAW in WOLVES match DRAW in EVERTON match Have not looked at markets in CHELSEA game .....YET so may skip that as "playing" in CELTIC and NEWCASTLE matches.........Layed HEARTS ( a dodgy one and laid draw ....with cover on 0-0).....and main bet is DRAW in NEWCASTLE game..... Tough matches today ....so fingers crossed we get some winners !!!! |
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cheers for the comments guys
Bank: £385.20 |
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Bet 10: £34.21 Wigan @2.21* v Bolton
*after comission Adjusting the available odds for Home Advantage and the market is rating these teams as equals( they would be joint favs at a neutral venue) but i see Wigan as a team likely to finish clear of the bottom 6 while Bolton i'd have as odds against to finish better than 16th . Wigan have certainly been awful at times this season but wins v Chelsea and at Villa suggest while inconsistent , they do have quality . Bolton meanwhile have no more than hard work and organization , which while it will get them the odd result, should mean that every team not similary limited ought to be no more than Evs when at home to them. Bank: £350.99 |
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WD on Chelsea lay T...... :D
Once red card for CELTIC i changed bets to end up wit profit thre.....also wriggled to profit in NEWCASTLE game, but made a decision that led to approximately break-even in EVERTON match .... On Saturday was £113 in afternoon on football matches ...but ending up with a overall loss of £7 with night matches. Similar with today ...was £80 up after afternoon matches , but dearth of goals again cost me and finished up losing £32 over all today. Very frustrating w/e with night matches being so dry with goals in 2nd half !!!! It was the FRENCH , ITALIAN and PORTUGESE matches at night that were so scant of goals in 2nd half.......................which is no real surprise, as I am aware of style of play in such leagues, especially with night matches........My own fault for choosing to bet on those matches at night. I know how I will "play" them next time . ]:) Gl with next bet T. Cheers the noooooo |
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Bet 10 Cancelled so bank went back to £385.20
Last year had a thread posting my Premier Lg Bets on the football forum, was over £2k up at Xmas . Boxing Day was where it all went wrong :_| , particulary Arsenal blowing a 2-0 lead to an injury time equalizer, but there were several other losers and an awful day all round . Never really got betting back on track since that day . This week my ratings are telling me again that the bet of the day is a HT/FT Bet , this one Liverpool v Wolves . I'm aware no one seems to like these bets, but as i said before , analysis i carried out found that the HT/FT price should be the match odds price multiplied by 2.3 .Though it was a while back , since then i've not noticed any worse results on my HT/FT bets than match odds . My ratings method doesn't allow me to drop Liverpool (or anyone )too far , too quickly , so i am making them 1.20 to beat Wolves in 90 mins , and 1.46 HT/FT , as they are 1.85 for that Kelly Calculator requesting 31.01% of the bank for this bet :0 Bet 10: £119.44 @1.85 Liverpool HT/FT v Wolves Bet 11: £25.95 @2.36 Wigan v Blackburn Bank: £239.81 Several other games have a bet with a value index of 103-107 but don't like to bet under 110 so left them. |
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DFCIRONMAN 20 Dec 12:47
GL T ....on those 3 games I have as main bet - DRAW in WOLVES match DRAW in EVERTON match Have not looked at markets in CHELSEA game .....YET so may skip that as "playing" in CELTIC and NEWCASTLE matches.........Layed HEARTS ( a dodgy one and laid draw ....with cover on 0-0).....and main bet is DRAW in NEWCASTLE game..... Tough matches today ....so fingers crossed we get some winners !!!! DFCIRONMAN 20 Dec 22:38 WD on Chelsea lay T...... :D Once red card for CELTIC i changed bets to end up wit profit thre.....also wriggled to profit in NEWCASTLE game, but made a decision that led to approximately break-even in EVERTON match .... On Saturday was £113 in afternoon on football matches ...but ending up with a overall loss of £7 with night matches. Similar with today ...was £80 up after afternoon matches , but dearth of goals again cost me and finished up losing £32 over all today. Very frustrating w/e with night matches being so dry with goals in 2nd half !!!! It was the FRENCH , ITALIAN and PORTUGESE matches at night that were so scant of goals in 2nd half.......................which is no real surprise, as I am aware of style of play in such leagues, especially with night matches........My own fault for choosing to bet on those matches at night. I know how I will "play" them next time . ]:) Gl with next bet T. Cheers the noooooo pmsl |
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Are you really putting 31% of your bank on Liverpoo, tobes? :0
As a fairweather red, I wouldn't back them with Monopoly money at the mo. Rafa seems to have lost it to me and there is little fight in the team. I hope they do it for you but wouldnt be surprised if they put in another shocker. |
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Tobermory, the disagreement you have with the market seems to be your multiple of 2.3 from win odds to ht/ft price, whereas the market multiplies by roughly 3.0. A clear example of that is the match you have chose (Liverpool v Wolves), match odds roughly 1.30, ht/f/t around 1.90. It seems to me you will always have a bet with such a match even if you agree on the match odds, such is the discrepancy between those multiples. Why do you believe there is such a discrepancy?
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Have to say Kenilworth speaks sense imo, Tobes. You're almost compelled to have a bet on every game if your factor is 2.3, against the market's 3. If Liverpool were priced in the region of 4/9 HT/FT they'd be a maximum lay for me. You'd have to question the method somewhere if the staking plan recommends betting over 30% of your bank. Something can't be right surely?
I'm not having a bet on the game myself but wish you all the best, mate. |
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Taken quite a hit today.
Yes Ken and Easter you are correct , that i would always be betting on the HT/FT if the market is using a multiple of 3.0 .But i would be happy to make those bets :) , as i can't believe that 3.0 is anywhere near right. This latest bet was excellent imo, though it lost. Can it really be true that backing a team at an average of 1.30 every game on match odds would return more than backing them 1.90 HT/FT??? The important thing with these bets is what the correct multiple should be . 2.3 ,you ,and the market, say is way too low. The Bookies always used to use 2.25 ( eg : EVS to win would be 9/4 HT/FT) . I concluded 2.3 was correct quite a while ago, from an analysis of hundreds of Prem Lg games , i find it hard to believe that threw up a figure that could be so wrong, or that it could have changed so drastically in a couple of years since. I will be doing more research and will post up the results of it, because as you rightly say it is crazy to carry on regardless without investigating this discrepancy which will lead to more huge % of bank bets. |
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Looking at the Prem Lg results this season , you would indeed have been better backing the winners at 1.30 in match odds than 1.90 HT/FT!
Though backing them @1.40 in match odds would return less than backing them at 2.2 HT/FT . Also quite a bit better to back teams HT/FT @3.3 instead of @2.0 in in 90 minutes. So multiplying by 2.3 or 3.0 or whatever is no way of working it out . Haven't worked out a correct formula for this ( only c grade GCSE Maths here) . The results for this season btw were 90/139 wins were acheived HT/FT. Will put HT/FT bets on hold til i have time to look at this properly. |
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Bet 12: £32.76 Arsenal @1.72 v Aston Villa
Bank: £207.05 |
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I think its worth tossing in that surely you'll also be looking at the goal expectancy in such games, since that will definitely affect a HT/FT bet? There could be value in cases where the goal line is very high - but an "across the board" general piece of value, I doubt.
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Pullein has touched on this a couple of times, that is top 4 sides playing bottom 4 sides over a number of years (10+ I remember) and his view was that the short priced favourite doesn't lead at half time as often as, according to the betting, it should do, and some times recommended draw/favourite as the value. It's not a market I play in very often.
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I looked at the HT/FT results, price range 1.25 - 1.35 (bet_365 prices) from the previous 9 premier league seasons, from a sample of 243 there was 122 winning bets which gives virtually 50%
If you put your own ratings to this it should be able to be improved upon but not a market I've dabbled in. |
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3 good posts there guys :) needs more study
Bank: £263.46 |
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Bet 13: £20.97 Sunderland @3.75 away to Blackburn
Bet 14: £17.20 Stoke @2.50 v Birmingham |
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Bank: £225.29
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Bet 15: £27.50 Man City @1.94 away to Wolves
Bank: £197.79 |
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Bank: £251.16
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An analysis that leads to backing Liverpool HT/FT at sub 1.5 against anyone in the Premiership is bound to yield a bad result. Your HT/FT calculations are clearly out.
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DRAW ht/ FAV ft is often a much better value play, correct.
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I see nothing "wrong" in using a main bet with HT/FT market......provided you believe odds are in your favour and event can occur.
MAN CITY last night were very very likely to be ahead at HT............and likely to win match.....so MC/MC was a "good" bet.......and I suspect T that is bet you would have gone for had you decided not to use HT/FT bets due to some earlier posts....... I hope you return to include HT/FT bets occasionally, as i do like this type of bet and it is worth doing whether as a back or lay................ GL T with thread and with life next year. |
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MAN CITY last night were very very likely to be ahead at HT............and likely to win match.....so MC/MC was a "good" bet.......
Unbelievable after timing. Problem is he doesn't even think he is after timing !! |
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I am not after timing re what I said re the HT/FT bets being worth extra value ...........unlike yersel K who poo poos such bets................................
I did not comment on this thread re that match as T had MC down as a win....AND ALSO SAID HE WAS NOT GOING TO DO ANY MORE HT/FT BETS FOR A WHILE........THEREFOR WHAT WAS POINT IN ME POSTING RE THAT MATCH. You are the one K who has a warped opinion re HT/FT bets IMO...........................and I am not after-timing that comment! |
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You don't think you are after timing ? Ok, I withdraw my assertion that you were. :(
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Bet 16: £10.42 Hull @ 5.08 away to Bolton
Value Index on this 116.96 . I rate Hull joint lowest with Wolves , but can't see how Bolton can be far enough ahead of anyone to justify an away team being bigger than 4/1 ( after comission) . I make Hull just over 10/3 , Bolton EVS . Value index on the lay of Bolton was lower. Yes DFC, likely i would have done the HT/FT on Man C , as that was my usual choice when i thought an odds on team was value in the match odds maket .But need to look at more stats and work out a formula for the correct odds before i do any more of those as the Liverpool bet seems to have been an error ( not just because it lost, the Arsenal v Hull bet had the same criteria). Bank: £240.74 |
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The way I view it T ...is that if I believe a team will take lead in first half, then i bet HT/FT as main bet ....with a cover bet on DRAW/HT..etc....
Would not do so if odds were odds on in HT/FT market for the fancied team....would look for another bet ....possibly OVER 2.5 goals..... Anyway ...Gl with bets |
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BTW T ....I have bets based on BOLTON winning this one tonight......they probably will be too strong for HULL after H's efforts in last match!
Have BOLTON/BOLTON and DRAW/BOLTON as main bets ....as well as a bet on BOLTON to win in match market...with cover on 0-0 overall... Not keen on your bet ....but with football you never really "know" what might happen in most matches...so GL anyway ....though will cost me a bit if HULL win :( |
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Tobermory, perhaps you should have a double on Hull to beat Bolton and Megson to be the next manager in the sack race, as one will surely follow the other !!
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.« Previous Next » Date Competition Outcome Home team Score/Time Away team
28-11-2009 Premier League D Fulham 1 - 1 Bolton Wanderers 05-12-2009 Premier League L Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 - 1 Bolton Wanderers 12-12-2009 Premier League D View events More info Bolton Wanderers 3 - 3 Manchester City 15-12-2009 Premier League W Bolton Wanderers 3 - 1 West Ham United 26-12-2009 Premier League D Burnley 1 - 1 Bolton Wanderers Really find it hard to see HULL winning this one T ....as B are a hard team to beat recently ...... Gl all the same ... |
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DFCIRONMAN, he is backing the price, not the team.
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I think you are "wrong" on that K...... Tobermoray obviously is attracted to the odds....but he also MUST have a belief that there is a good probability of bet winning..........
IMO.......it is very unlikely to win this bet......but you never "know" with football betting what might happen...... |
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He believes the odds are greater than the chance of his bet being successful. He has said so in many previous posts. Perhaps hewill confirm that.
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Kelly is just one way of determining how much you should stake but there is no right formula. Please be aware that the results are heavily geared to the win probability so you need to be confident in the accuracy of your estimations.
======================================== In effect you are not backing just because odds are better than your estimate of probability to win.......the bet must have a real chance of winning....otherwise it is just an illogical bet...... |
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DFC, please don't lecture me on betting. All I said was that Tober is betting prices and is apparently using Kelly. I am not he.
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Yes Ken is right.
the bet must have a real chance of winning....otherwise it is just an illogical bet Everything has 'a real chance of winning' .I thought Hull's chance of winning was around 10/3. They were 4/1 so that was it. With this Kelly System i am going by the 'value index' that gives a figure for how much value there is . This was marginally favouring the Hull back over the Bolton Lay. Though with it being a shorter price ( effectively 11/10 after comm that Bolton would not win) a higher stake would have been called for. Bet 17: £5.40 Wigan @20.99 away to Man United I make Wigan 14.5 here . Tempted to lay United too, but think it's best to have 1 bet per match .Wigan i'm not that sure about, thinking of lowering my rating of them; looked a class above the relegation candidates in a few games (beating Chelsea,Villa convincingly) but as bad as anyone in a lot of games. |