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Spain v Iraq 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 14.50 ( 11.46 ) 52 from 617 ( @ 13.91 )( 17.26% ROI ) Nacional (Uru) v Palmeiras 0-2 @ 17.50 ( 16.12 ) Corinthians v Internacional 0-2 @ 24 ( 20.30 ) Gremio v Caracas FC 2-0 @ 7.80 ( 7.10 ) Seattle v D. C. United 3-0 @ 28 ( 24.54 ) GL All. |
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once a again lad pullling it off keeep it going :)
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marching towards the 1000 Rob, ( then its decision time.)
52 from 621 (@ 13.91 )( 16.50% ROI ) USA v Brazil 0-2 @ 8.20 ( 7.43 ) |
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Fredrikstad v Ranheim
2-0 @ 9.60 ( 8.43 ) Molde v Kongsvinger 2-0 @ 9.20 ( 8.26 ) Start v Lov Ham 2-0 @ 9.20 ( 8.19 ) Germany U21 v Finland U21 3-0 @ 9.60 ( 9.04 ) Egypt v Italy 1-0 @ 20 ( 16.17 ) Spain U21 v England U21 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.04 ) GL all. |
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Egypt v Italy 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 20 ( 16.17 ) 53 from 628 ( @ 14.03 )( 18.39% ROI ) Estudiantes v Defensor Sporting 0-1 @ 20 ( 16.03 ) Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro 0-1 @ 19 ( 15.61 ) |
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hats off to u mate tht 1-0 egypt must have put a smile on ya face
not bad team tbh egypt wots ur plans at 1000 i think u shud go real on it u obviously proved it over alot of games and ur ROI is well above average ~~~ Lastly as ur bank increases how do u manage to increase stakes GL MATE And ill keeep ReadING P.s I HAVNT LAYED ONE OF UR SELECTIONS YET ;) lol |
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that it did Rob !
at 1000 ( and if things are still as good ) i will increase my total bank and therefore stakes substantially, i'm not going to discuss actual amounts as they 'cloud' peoples judgement. The stats & maths is far more important. i am certainly not a 'big' punter as such, but will begin betting bigger than i ever have before if this continues... 1 % of bank per bet is my stakes, so as the bank increases so does the stake. But with so few markets around at the moment it'll be some time before i get to the magic 1000 !!. |
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53 from 630 ( @ 14.03 ) ( 18.01% ROI )
Sweden U21 v Italy U21 2-0 @ 19.50 ( 17.13 ) Belarus U21 v Serbia U21 0-3 @ 11 ( 10.13 ) Bohemians v Sligo Rovers AnyUnq @ 6.60 ( 6.35 ) Derry v Bray AnyUnq @ 6.80 ( 6.43 ) Drogheda v St Patricks 2-0 @ 17 ( 16.24 ) Cork v Dundalk 0-2 @ 60 ( 50.15 ) & 3-0 @ 13.50 ( 13.01 ) Newells v San Martin 0-2 @ 36 ( 30.51 ) GL all. |
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53 from 638 ( @ 14.03 )( 16.53% ROI )
Argentinos Juniors v Banfield 1-0 @ 11 ( 9.95 ) G-Osaka v Niigata 0-1 @ 23 ( 19.38 ) |
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Keep up the good work mate, im still watching closely.
Think you`ll do far better with a better range of matches at the beginning of the season. I think then you can be more selective of the ones you highlight, for examply 10 or 15% increase in value in the price from your expected price. I say this as i know your testing the system but im sure you would like to improve if possible.... maybe picking the ripest cherries rather than all of them is a better tactic.... just being open minded to it all. Kep it going anyway FS |
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thanks blacky
I understand your suggestion but this method is not simply looking for the 'value'. I'm seeking the cs in each market that is not only 'value' but out of sync with the rest of its market.( when compared with the poisson distributions for the same market ) And so far every market has multiple cs's in that category. They are multiplied by my 'likelihood' factor and i select the highest final figure. I have not recorded those figures and their success rates - and not sure i can bury myself in more stats !! |
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53 from 640 ( @ 14.03 )( 16.17% ROI )
Sandefjord v Valerenga 1-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.09 ) Aalesunds v Rosenborg 1-0 @ 20 ( 16.67 ) Levante v Las Palmas 0-1 @ 16.50 ( 13.88 ) Shamrock Rovers v Galway Utd 0-2 @ 38 ( 33.18 ) Iraq v New Zealand 1-0 @ 6.80 ( 6.55 ) South Africa v Spain 1-0 @ 17.50 ( 14.31 ) Livorno v Brescia 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 11.30 ) |
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Zambia v Algeria
1-1 @ 7.60 ( 7.15 ) Albacete v Alaves 0-2 @ 30 ( 24.28 ) |
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Kenya v Mozambique
3-0 @ 29 ( 23.66 ) Atletico-PR v Palmeiras 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.71 ) Independiente v San Lorenzo 0-2 @ 20 ( 18.32 ) & 2-0 @ 14.50 ( 13.60 ) Santo Andre v Sport Recife 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 12.90 ) Vitoria v Botafogo RJ 0-1 @ 15 ( 12.89 ) San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles 0-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.56 ) Gimnasia Jujuy v Racing Club 0-3 @ 38 ( 32.88 ) & 1-0 @ 10 ( 9.64 ) Avai v Fluminense RJ 2-0 @ 16.50 ( 15.04 ) Gremio v Goias 0-1 @ 17.50 ( 15.04 ) Nautico v Coritiba 0-1 @ 17 ( 14.54 ) GL All. |
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New York Red Bulls v Seattle
0-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.25 ) Chicago Fire v San Luis 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.65 ) Tigre v Rosario 0-2 @ 23 ( 19.85 ) Dallas v Columbus 1-0 @ 13 ( 11.42 ) Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.73 ) Colorado v D. C. United 0-1 @ 15.50 ( 13.52 ) Chivas USA v Tigres 0-1 @ 14 ( 13.21 ) |
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Nautico v Coritiba 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 17 ( 14.54 ) 54 from 668 ( @ 14.08 )( 13.84% ROI ) |
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Bodo/Glimt v Lillestrom
0-0 @ 16.50 ( 15.02 ) Estudiantes v Colon 0-2 @ 17.50 ( 15.87 ) Lyn v Odd Grenland 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.42 ) Molde v Fredrikstad 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.52 ) Stabaek v Start 2-0 @ 13 ( 11.40 ) Stromsgodset v Tromso 1-0 @ 12 ( 11.23 ) Godoy Cruz v River Plate 3-0 @ 48 ( 40.18 ) Viking v Brann 1-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.27 ) Egypt v USA 0-1 @ 15.50 ( 14.09 ) Italy v Brazil 2-0 @ 23 ( 20.01 ) Tenerife v Castellon 1-0 @ 10 ( 8.70 ) Huracan v Arsenal FC 0-1 @ 23 ( 19.69 ) Lanus v Velez 3-0 @ 32 ( 28.40 ) Kansas City v Atlas 0-2 @ 27 ( 22.62 ) Corinthians v Sao Paulo 0-2 @ 22 ( 19.31 ) Cruzeiro v Barueri 0-1 @ 22 ( 17.86 ) Flamengo v Internacional 0-1 @ 12 ( 11.30 ) Santos v Atletico-MG 0-1 @ 19 ( 16.39 ) Boca Juniors v Gimnasia La Plata 0-1 @ 15.50 ( 14.08 ) GL All. |
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54 from 687 ( @ 14.08)( 10.69% ROI )
- just 1 from last 60 selections.. ( was averaging 1 in 12 ) hopefully it rebounds again... |
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FS - don't worry too much about the ups and downs and concentrate on you approach. I think I now understand what is happening now, although my head is too busr with horse ratings to look at it closely. I think you'll only find out if this is a successful method by testing against a tight data set like the the English Championship or 1st Div, or turgid leagues like the French or Italian 2nd divs (that's where I go to beat myself up).
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Finland U21 v Spain U21
1-1 @ 11.50 ( 10.86 ) Germany U21 v England U21 1-0 @ 9 ( 7.28 ) (Germany U21 v England U21 = very peculiar cs market ....) REM - im not really worried as yet, i'm used to this torture ! GL all. |
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The Germany v England game is interesting. England have qualified, and Germany need a point. A point would see England finish top of the group.
Doesn't your method break down under these kind of circumstances? The 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, and 3-3 results should be disproportionately favoured in this type of game (particularly the 0-0). At the other end of the draw spectrum, in a cup game where neither team wants a replay, I think you might end up thinking (wrongly) that the 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, and 3-3 are value. Have you considered some kind of criteria, possibly based around the draw odds, that flags up these circumstances so you can avoid them, or adjust for them? |
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Great points joe' - but i'm thinking by using the markets cs odds themselves to calculate 'expected' goals, this method will at least partially allow for that.
ie. when 0-0 & 1-1 are short odds it brings the 'expected' goals down in proportion.. and so to the odds of related scores like 0-1 & 1-0. In this games case *Germany U21 v England U21* the 0-1 & 1-0 remain substantially out of sync with the low draw results. With the 1-1 @ around 5.5 the market is very confident both teams can score. That said, and both teams definitely wanting at least 1 point , its fair to assume after scoring they'll go very defensive so as not to concede , yes? Therefore the 0-1 & 1-0 should be more 'in sync' with the 0-0 & 1-1 odds. They are definitely not. Havent checked it yet but i suspect my method actually has a reasonable strike rate for the 0-0 & 1-1's its selected.. |
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just checked it..
approx 78 bets @ 0-0 or 1-1 10 wins @ av. 12.01 ( 54% ROI ) (includes 1 @ 20 and 1 @ 25) food for thought. |
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check out the norwegian tippeligaen league if you like 1-1s Fatal
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54 from 689 ( @ 14.08 )( 10.37% ROI )
Belarus U21 v Italy U21 0-1 @ 7 ( 6.69 ) Sweden U21 v Serbia U21 1-1 @ 7.20 ( 7.01 ) |
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Taking 7.2 about a 7.01 shot, I presume you're on a low commission rate otherwise this bet has a negative expected return.
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...
Binh Duong v Kedah 1-0 @ 22 ( 11.07 ) Notodden v Nybergsund 0-1 @ 17 ( 14.31 ) Chonburi v PSMS Medan 0-1 @ 19 ( 15.68 ) |
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Lily - point taken, but as long as the overall ROI% stays well above my commission rate i'm happy to take the odd
'negative expected return' bet. |
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54 from 694 ( @ 14.08 )( 9.58% ROI )
Chicago Fire v Chivas 0-1 @ 18 ( 14.07 ) San Luis v Tigres 0-1 @ 13 ( 11.88 ) |
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San Luis v Tigres
& 1-1 @ 15 ( 7.52 ) ( strange market ! ) |
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G-Osaka v Kawasaki
0-1 @ 16.50 ( 14.68 ) Kashima v FC Seoul 0-1 @ 22 ( 18.40 ) Nagoya v Samsung Bluewings 1-2 @ 21 ( 17.27 ) Pohang Steelers v Newcastle Jets 1-2 @ 20 ( 18.59 ) |
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FC Haka v Lahti
1-1 @ 7.8 ( 7.49 ) Honka v KuPS 1-0 @ 10 ( 8.99 ) Jaro v IFK Mariehamn 3-0 @ 34 ( 31.52 ) TPS v RoPS 1-0 @ 9.40 ( 8.41 ) Fredrikstad v Lyn 0-1 @ 14 ( 13.16 ) Odd Grenland v Stromsgodset 0-1 @ 27 ( 21.63 ) Start v Sandefjord 0-1 @ 18 ( 15.99 ) Tromso v Viking 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.15 ) Valerenga v Bodo/Glimt 1-0 @ 11 ( 9.75 ) Spain v USA AnyUnq @ 5.20 ( 5.11 ) Rosenborg v Stabaek 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.87 ) GL All. |
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Tromso v Viking 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.15 ) 55 from 712 ( @ 14.07 )( 8.7 % ROI ) New England v Kansas City 0-2 @ 24 ( 20.28 ) Mexico v Venezuela 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.81 ) Toronto FC v New York Red Bulls 0-2 @ 30 ( 25.33 ) Cruzeiro v Gremio 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.15 ) Santos Laguna v Atlas 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.64 ) Colorado v Dallas 0-1 @ 17 ( 15.24 ) |
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missed the ones u put up thios afternoon so missed a winner!
Can u put them up a bit earlier so i dont miss them, was out for 3 hours, come back and cant get on :( keep up the good work FS |
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( just 3 from last 100 odd !! )
...rebound.............................? ( Blacky, if you are actually backing my selections.., you'll end up with same ROI in long term anyway. hopefully drought breaks for us shortly. ) 55 from 718 ( @ 14.07 )( 7.8%ROI ) VPS v JJK 1-1 @ 8.40 ( 8.09 ) Lillestrom v Molde 1-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.47 ) Brazil v South Africa AnyUnq @ 5.40 ( 5.20 ) Brann v Aalesunds 0-1 @ 22 ( 19.40 ) GL all. |
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...
Estudiantes v Nacional (Uru) 0-1 @ 20 ( 16.81 ) |
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55 from 723 ( @ 14.07 )( 7.05% ROI )
England U21 v Sweden U21 0-2 @ 26 ( 23.04 ) Italy U21 v Germany U21 0-2 @ 18.5 ( 17.12 ) Arsenal FC v Independiente 0-1 @ 15.5 ( 14.20 ) |
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55 from 725 ( @ 14.07 )( 6.75% ROI )
Lahti v Tampere United 0-2 @ 20 ( 18.21 ) TPS v MyPa 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.89 ) Atletico-PR v Corinthians 0-1 @ 16 ( 14.51 ) Barueri v Atletico-MG 0-2 @ 19.5 ( 16.41 ) Sao Paulo v Nautico 3-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.61 ) Botafogo RJ v Goias 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.74 ) Cruzeiro v Avai 0-1 @ 19 ( 16.03 ) |
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...hmmm
Columbus v New York Red Bulls 0-0 @ 18.50 ( 16.00 ) Chicago Fire v Tigres 0-1 @ 14.5 ( 12.74 ) Costa Rica v Venezuela 0-1 @ 20 ( 17.25 ) Real Salt Lake v Toronto FC 0-2 @ 27 ( 23.21 ) Chivas USA v San Luis 0-2 @ 15 ( 13.52 ) |
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55 from 738 ( @ 14.07 )( 4.87% ROI )
Oita v Kashima 1-1 @ 8.60 ( 7.96 ) |