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FS,
Even if you have a negative ROI after 1000 bets I wouldn't give up. I would be looking to see whether the theory works better in English, Scottish, Spanish, German, and French leagues. I'm sure it would be possible to come up with a rationalisation why that would be the case. I would also be considering reducing my stake when the predicted advantage is less than 10% (or even 5%). |
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thanks joe, i'm hopin it'll work on any league because it is soley 'market' based , but i will plough on to 1000 then analyse it all very carefully , maybe tweak accordingly , because i know i'm around the mark... just need to iron out the wrinkles.
Already have several ideas for tweaks etc. Will post em up for discussion when the time comes. |
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Joe may be right. Maybe the main leagues are more accurately priced as the market is more keen. You may therefore find that your stats drop-off when playing the minor leagues and will pick-up again when the major leagues come back.
This is often the point where most people drop their threads, but I hope you don't do that. It will be interesting to see if it does bear fruit over a longer period of time. Good luck! |
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Maybe so Eb's but that depends on what is a 'keen' market ?/..
maybe value can also be found in 'weak' markets..? 63 from 931 ( @ 14.54 )( 0% ROI ) Kryliya Sovetov v Rubin Kazan 2-0 @ 18 ( 16.64 ) Kalmar FF v Djurgardens 0-0 @ 16.50 ( 14.18 ) Terek Grozni v CSKA Moscow 2-1 @ 23 ( 17.02 ) FC Inter v IFK Mariehamn AnyUnq @ 16.50 ( 15.21 ) Aarau v Grasshoppers Zurich 1-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.45 ) Stabaek v Viking 0-1 @ 20 ( 16.75 ) Rostov v Spartak Moscow 1-0 @ 10.50 ( 10.10 ) & 2-0 @ 21 ( 19.46 ) New England v Kansas City 2-0 @ 16 ( 14.26 ) Seattle v Houston Dynamo AnyUnq @ 14 ( 13.13 ) GL All. ( really need and overdue for some winners .) |
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...
USA v Haiti 3-0 @ 8.8 ( 8.30 ) & AnyUnq @ 5.40 ( 5.21 ) |
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..
Chicago Fire v Columbus 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.42 ) Honduras v Grenada 1-1 @ 17.50 ( 15.04 ) Colorado v Dallas 0-1 @ 16 ( 13.98 ) San Jose Earthquakes v Toronto FC 0-0 @ 20 ( 14.30 ) Chivas USA v Los Angeles 0-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.44 ) |
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Aarau v Grasshoppers Zurich 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.45 ) 64 from 948 ( @ 14.52 )( 0 % ROI ) Kyoto v Kashiwa 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.78 ) FC Tokyo v Nagoya 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.69 ) Iwata v Oita 0-1 @ 21 ( 16.97 ) Zenit St Petersburg v FC Moscow 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.94 ) |
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...
Lokomotiv v Tomsk Any Unq @ 7.60 ( 7.28 ) Bellinzona v Neuchatel Xamax 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 12.86 ) St Gallen v FC Basel 0-2 @ 13 ( 11.71 ) Helsingborgs v Elfsborg 2-0 @ 18 ( 16.54 ) KuPS v HJK Helsinki 1-0 @ 25 ( 20.55 ) Lahti v Honka 1-0 @ 14 ( 12.38 ) RoPS v Jaro Any Unq @ 13 ( 12.20 ) VPS v Tampere United 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.21 ) & Any Unq @ 15 ( 14.20 ) Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.18 ) Fredrikstad v Sandefjord 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.47 ) GAIS v Halmstads Any Unq @ 13.50 ( 12.82 ) Lillestrom v Aalesunds 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.90 ) Lyn v Bodo/Glimt 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.70 ) Odd Grenland v Start 0-1 @ 25 ( 19.70 ) & 1-0 @ 13.50 ( 11.96 ) Stromsgodset v Rosenborg 1-0 @ 25 ( 20.53 ) Atletico-PR v Internacional 2-0 @ 20 ( 17.87 ) Molde v Brann 0-1 @ 23 ( 18.67 ) Sligo Rovers v Cork 0-0 @ 10.50 ( 10.06 ) Cruzeiro v Atletico-MG 2-0 @ 25 ( 19.84 ) Gremio v Corinthians 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 11.83 ) Sao Paulo v Flamengo 0-1 @ 17 ( 14.34 ) Panama v Nicaragua 1-0 @ 7.40 ( 7.07 ) Fluminense RJ v Santo Andre 0-1 @ 16.50 ( 13.55 ) Sport Recife v Goias 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.25 ) Vitoria v Santos 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 12.93 ) Mexico v Guadeloupe 0-1 @ 20 ( 17.24 ) GL All. |
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i think you should be letting us know the -% roi as well as when its a +% roi
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Close to the 1k sample and the market is grinding you down very slowly.
There is something that I both love and hate about correct scores. |
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i think its amazing to be anywhere near level after 1k sample on correct scores
now ud expect on a 50/50 market |
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If someone bets blind on any correct score, I would expect the person to be level minus commission after a length of time.
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how would you expect them to be level there is so many possible outcomes hard things to land correct scores
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i know what you are saying like if you kept backin 50/1 shots in theory you win 1 in 50 , level stakes lost 490 won 500 but correct scores a mine field ,
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Actually Dayna is probably right - the norm would be to finish roughly level minus commission after a decent time, the problem with correct scores and the large number of possibilities is the inevitably large losing streaks. As this test has shown !!.
To be honest 1000 bets is still not enough to really test this method 100%. I intend to continue with it with a possible tweak - hoping that the bad run it had from bet 600 - 900 was an 'exceptionally' bad one and wont occur 'regularly'. Having said that, Mason, correct scores is a definite mine field ! in the dark !!. And i will show the -% ROI. sorry. Maybe its too optimistic, but i still feel the theory behind this method is sound and should be profitable long term. |
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RoPS v Jaro 5-3***WON***
Any Unq @ 13 ( 12.20 ) Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF 1-1***WON*** 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.18 ) Lyn v Bodo/Glimt 0-1***WON*** 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.70 ) Fluminense RJ v Santo Andre 0-1***WON*** 0-1 @ 16.50 ( 13.55 ) 68 from 979 ( @ 14.50 )( +00.71% ROI - commission ) |
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lol good haul tonight wd
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masonchat, I think you would be level minus commission due to the market being priced correctly - in my view.
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not working out it out thoroughly, i do think looking at your results at a glance FS i think 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines have thrown up the best percentage (once worked out it might show that) and think when you tweak your system you should be looking for at the draw prices IMO
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68 from 980 ( @ 14.50 )( +00.61% ROI - commission )
JJK v MyPa 2-0 @ 22 ( 20.35 ) & AnyUnq @ 14.50 ( 13.79 ) Haka v TPS 0-1 @ 11.50 ( 10.80 ) Orgryte v Gefle 2-0 @ 18 ( 16.92 ) AIK v IFK Goteborg AnyUnq @ 18.50 ( 17.34 ) Trelleborgs v Orebro AnyUnq @ 17.50 ( 16.41 ) Tromso v Valerenga 0-1 @ 15.50 ( 13.74 ) Blackjack' - yeah, have already noticed that earlier and will fall back on it if need be , but would really prefer not to be limited to just 'some' correct score outcomes. Time will tell. Okay, been workin on a 'tweak' and i must say.. I like it ! Havent applied it to the posted selections yet of course. I'll try and explain it.. if it proves beneficial to the original spreadsheet. Gotta be careful 'tweaking' cause you can end up completely **ising the original idea. !! GL All. |
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It just comes down to a battle between the logic of a poisson distribution v the logic of the cs market. The difficulty is the statistical consistency of football scores over time.
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Well said REM , i am hoping to eventually have a method that mixes the two together well enough to consistently pinpoint cs odds that are 'genuine' value. ( I may go completely insane in the process !! and broke !! lol. )
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crawling to the finish line, not gunna be the ROI% i had hoped for but ever onward & upward.
68 from 987 ( @ 14.50 )( -00.0011% ROI -Commission ) FC Pyunik v Dinamo Zagreb 0-3 @ 14.50 ( 13.40 ) Sliema v Maccabi Netanya 1-0 @ 18.50 ( 17.50 ) Mjallby v Atvidabergs 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.95 ) EB-Streymur v APOEL 0-1 @ 9 ( 8.46 ) Ekranas v FK Baku 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.22 ) FC Zurich v Young Boys 0-1 @ 20 ( 16.14 ) Rhyl v Partizan Belgrade 1-0 @ 34 ( 30.63 ) - Will 'reload' with a 'tweaked' version of this method after the 1000th. ( first tweak involves removing the 'draws' adjustment in the spreadsheet, and applying a % adjustment to all cs outcomes , more directly relevent to the market being analysed. second tweak will be to simply back all cs outcomes above my 'value' cutoff point, rather than just the highest ranked cs. ) |
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Ponte Preta v Campinense (Bra)
1-1 @ 17 ( 12.63 ) |
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Portuguesa SP v Atletico-GO
0-1 @ 16 ( 14.32 ) |
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FC Tokyo v Nagoya
0-2 @ 36 & 1-1 @ 8.80 |
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68 from 998 ( @ 14.50 )
FC Inter v FC Sheriff 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 13.11 ) WIT Georgia v NK Maribor 0-2 @ 21 ( 18.63 ) 'The torture ends with these two.' GL All. |
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FC Inter v FC Sheriff 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 14.50 ( 13.11 ) Final "Fatal - Statistics ! " 69 FROM 1000 ( @ 14.50 )( + 0.0005% ROI-Commission ) Almost 'exactly' square (minus commission) No doubting, after 1000 test bets, the cs markets are deadly accurate. - And thank you to those who contributed along the way with thoughts etc. Only 1 negative & useless comment, so my faith in the forum remains. - A little more testing of the 'tweaks' and the quest will continue. |
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i know everyone will say it should even out , and i would say yes if it was a toss of a coin you were betting on for 1000 flips.
you are definatly on to something you just need to swing it a little to the right . a lot of very clever people on these forums at times lol and i know mathamaticaly they are very sound. but i cant believe that something as unpredictable as sport can be transformed into an equation. yes the odds on the probability of the event are correct , its the selection process im amazed by , but you definatly got something |
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Okay - Time to 'reload' with the rejigged and tweaked version...
( Very happy with the paper testing of it ! ) Same deal, 1000 test bets at small level stakes to test the theory and then make assessments. ( Will get thru the 1000 much faster this time as there'll be 4or5 bets each match. first listed CS is highest ranked, rest are not in any order, they are just above my value cutoff point. Amkar v Lokomotiv 0-1 @ 8.60 / 0-2 @ 16.50 / 1-0 @ 8.40 / 2-0 @ 16 Sonderjyske v Randers 0-1 @ 8.80 / 0-2 @ 11 / 0-3 @ 19.50 / 1-0 @ 15.50 Spartak Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov 1-0 @ 6.80 / 0-0 @ 12 / 0-1 @ 19.50 / 2-0 @ 7.60 / 3-0 @ 13 / AnyUnq @ 9.40 Bellinzona v Luzern 1-0 @ 10.50 / 0-1 @ 11.50 FC Basel v Aarau AnyUnq @ 4.40 / 0-0 @ 24 / 1-0 @ 9.40 / 2-0 @ 8.60 / 3-0 @ 11 Grasshoppers Zurich v Sion 1-0 @ 9.80 / 0-1 @ 17 / 2-0 @ 11.50 / 3-0 @ 21 Koge v Silkeborg 0-1 @ 11.50 / 0-2 @ 17.50 / 1-0 @ 11.50 / 2-0 @ 20 FC Moscow v FK Krasnodar 1-0 @ 6.40 / 0-0 @ 10.5 / 0-1 @ 17.50 / 2-0 @ 7.60 / 3-0 @ 15 Red Bull Salzburg v Austria Vienna 2-0 @ 9.40 / 0-0 @ 17 / 0-1 @ 22 / 1-0 @ 8.8 / 3-0 @ 15 / AnyUnq @ 7 Honka v IFK Mariehamn 1-0 @ 7.40 / 0-1 @ 14.50 / 2-0 @ 9.60 / 3-0 @ 20 KuPS v Lahti 0-1 @ 9 / 0-2 @ 12 / 1-0 @ 13.50 MyPa v RoPS 1-0 @ 8 / 0-0 @ 15.50 / 0-1 @ 20 /1-2 @ 25 / 2-0 @ 9 TPS v HJK Helsinki 1-0 @ 10.50 / 0-1 @ 10.50 / 0-2 @ 18 / 2-0 @ 16 Brondby v OB Odense 1-0 @ 8.60 / 0-1 @ 11 / 2-0 @ 14 Djurgardens v Elfsborg 0-1 @ 6.80 / 0-0 @ 10.50 / 0-3 @ 26 / 1-0 @ 12.50 Gefle v Helsingborgs 0-1 @ 9.60 / 0-0 @ 11.5 / 1-0 @ 10 IFK Goteborg v Trelleborgs 1-0 @ 8 / 2-0 @ 7.40 / 3-0 @ 10 / AnyUnq @ 6.40 Terek Grozni v Zenit St Petersburg 0-1 @ 7.80 / 0-2 @ 11.50 / 1-0 @ 12.50 Atletico-PR v Coritiba 1-0 @ 12 / 0-1 @ 12.50 / 0-2 @ 19 / 2-0 @ 17.50 Cruzeiro v Corinthians 0-1 @ 13 / 1-0 @ 8.80 / 2-0 @ 13 Gremio v Internacional 1-0 @ 9.80 / 0-1 @ 12 / 2-0 @ 14.50 Sao Paulo v Santos 1-0 @ 9 / 0-1 @ 16 / 2-0 @ 11 Vitoria v Atletico-MG 1-0 @ 12 / 0-1 @ 16 / 0-2 @ 26 / 1-1 @ 8.40 / 2-0 @ 15 Guadeloupe v Costa Rica 0-1 @ 7 / 0-0 @ 10.50 / 0-2 @ 9.20 / 0-3 @ 20 Barueri v Nautico 2-0 @ 10 / 0-0 @ 19.50 / 0-1 @ 24 / 1-0 @ 9.60 / 3-0 @ 15.50 Flamengo v Botafogo RJ 1-0 @ 10.50 / 0-1 @ 14 / 0-2 @ 25 / 1-2 @ 15.50 / 2-0 @ 14 Sport Recife v Avai 1-0 @ 9.20 / 0-1 @ 21 / 2-0 @ 10 / 3-0 @ 18 / AnyUnq@ 7.80 New England v Chivas USA 1-0 @ 9.60 / 0-0 @ 12 / 0-1 @ 10 / 0-2 @ 18.50 / 2-0 @ 15.50 GL All. |
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Full marks for determination.
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Never give up REM.
+ Mexico v Haiti AnyUnq @ 4.40 / 1-0 @ 8.80 / 2-0 @ 6.20 / 2-1 @ 12.50 / 3-0 @ 8.40 |
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Sonderjyske v Randers 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 15.50 New England v Chivas USA 2-0***WON*** 2-0 @ 15.50 Mexico v Haiti 4-0***WON*** AnyUnq @ 4.40 Very poor start. will plough on . 3 from 120 ( @ 11.80 )( - 70.5% ROI ) |
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Jaro v Tampere United
1-0 @ 10.50 / 0-1 @ 9.40 / 2-0 @ 18 AGF v AaB 0-1 @ 12 / 0-2 @ 20 / 1-0 @ 10.50 / 2-0 @ 16 Hammarby v Orgryte 1-0 @ 7.40 / 0-0 @ 15 / 0-1 @ 19 / 2-0 @ 8.20 / 3-0 @ 14.50 Malmo FF v Halmstads 1-0 @ 7 / 0-0 @ 10 / 0-1 @ 12 / 2-0 @ 10 GAIS v AIK 0-1 @ 7.60 / 0-0 @ 10 / 1-0 @ 10 / 1-1 @ 7.40 Wolfsburg v W Bremen 2-0 @ 15.50 / 0-1 @ 15.50 / 0-2 @ 25 / 1-0 @ 11.50 GL All. |
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Better...
AGF v AaB 1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 10.50 Hammarby v Orgryte 0-1***WON*** 0-1 @ 19 Malmo FF v Halmstads 0-0***WON*** 0-0 @ 10 6 from 144 ( @ 12.48 )( - 48% ROI ) |
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FK Baku v Ekranas
1-0 @ 7.40 / 0-1 @ 15 / 2-0 @ 10 UE Sant Julia v Levski Sofia AnyUnq @ 3.30 / 0-1 @ 9.20 / 0-2 @ 6.80 / 0-3 @ 7.80 APOEL v EB-Streymur AnyUnq @ 2.16 / 1-0 @ 16.50 / 2-0 @ 8.60 / 3-0 @ 7.40 Norrkoping v Mjallby 1-0 @ 14.50 / 0-0 @ 16.50 / 0-1 @ 11.50 / 0-2 @ 16.50 / 0-3 @ 38 / 2-0 @ 22 Dinamo Zagreb v FC Pyunik AnyUnq @ 3.95 / 0-0 @ 21 / 1-0 @ 7.40 / 2-0 @ 6 / 3-0 @ 7.60 Stabaek v KF Tirana AnyUnq @ 4.80 / 0-0 @ 19.50 / 1-0 @ 8.60 / 2-0 @ 7 / 3-0 @ 9.60 GL All. |
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why now dutching so many possible scores
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Yeah i dont like this method, i mean take the APOEL match, basically your backing a long odds on shot (maybe value but the valeu has to be very small in such a long odds on chance) and the tip itself is basically a home win.
I know you have gone through your methods of poisson but dont think this one is the right route to go down. |
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Fair enough, but it's early days and i'll see it thru to the 1000, then assess.
Mason, not dutching! - must profit at level stakes first. |
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UE Sant Julia v Levski Sofia 0-5***WON***
AnyUnq @ 3.30 APOEL v EB-Streymur 3-0***WON*** 3-0 @ 7.40 Norrkoping v Mjallby 0-1***WON*** 0-1 @ 11.50 Dinamo Zagreb v FC Pyunik 3-0***WON*** 3-0 @ 7.60 Stabaek v KF Tirana 4-0***WON*** AnyUnq @ 4.80 11 from 171 ( @ 9.95 )( - 44% ROI ) |