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Larissa v Asteras Tripolis
1-2 @ 19 Ancona v Triestina 0-1 @ 14 0-2 @ 36 Crotone v Cittadella 0-1 @ 13 1-2 @ 16.50 Empoli v Sassuolo 0-2 @ 32 Lecce v Vicenza 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 38 1-2 @ 20 Piacenza v Gallipoli 0-1 @ 11 Reggina v Grosseto 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 34 Torino v Mantova 0-1 @ 15 0-2 @ 55 1-3 @ 130 Porto v Leixoes 0-1 @ 30 1-1 @ 11.50 1-2 @ 46 Salernitana v Brescia 1-0 @ 10 GL ( in 2010) All. |
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94 from 1484 @ 19.58 ( 24.1% ROI )
Giannina v Xanthi 1-2 @ 17.50 Iraklis v Panthrakikos 0-1 @ 30 Atalanta v Napoli 0-1 @ 10.50 Cagliari v Roma 0-1 @ 11.50 Catania v Bologna 0-1 @ 13 Lazio v Livorno 0-1 @ 14.50 0-2 @ 40 Parma v Juventus 1-0 @ 11.50 Panathinaikos v Ergotelis 0-0 @ 16.50 0-1 @ 36 1-2 @ 55 Olympiacos v AEK 1-2 @ 30 |
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Olympiacos v AEK 1-2 @ 30 ***won***
AC Milan v Genoa 0-1 @ 21 |
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95 from 1497 @ 19.70 ( 24.9% ROI )
Malaga v Getafe 0-1 @ 9.40 0-2 @ 15 |
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West Brom v Nottm Forest
0-1 @ 15 Braga v Nacional 0-1 @ 14.50 1-2 @ 25 1-3 @ 100 GL All. |
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Fatal, An interesting thread, which I recall part reading at the outset for a while, pleased to see it has continued in a good profit for you.
3 quick questions if I may, firstly the Arsenal game 1-3 130/1, do you know the lowest price 1-3 traded at and was you tempted to get out. Have you considered taking profits out of big priced games along the way. Also I note that quite a few of your selected scores are shall we say the less expected I think Wolves v Man Utd 3-1 was one, is this because your spreadsheet is picking out the larger differentials between price and expectancy, where prices on here on outsiders are always likely to be inflated. Do you guard against this. Thanks for your time and GL |
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SA - no sorry i dont know the Arsenal price , betfair historical data is the go if you really want that data.
And no not tempted to 'get out' because i have looked into that 'tactic' and fail to see why or how it can be any 'more' profitable than riding out the bet. ( but i'll stand corrected if anyone can 'prove' it to me...) And as for 'guarding against inflated outsider's prices" - I think this is exactly what i'm looking for and where i am currently being profitable. I am not discouraged by big prices.. this is a long haul system. ie; 10% value at 100/1 pays me 110 or 10% value at 10/1 pays me 11 i theoretically get 1 of the 100/1 winners or 10 of the 10/1 winners, but same profit over 100 bets so whats it matter, or is that too simplistic of me ?? Thanks for the input and GL to you. |
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Colmar v Lille
0-0 @ 18 1-1 @ 13 Albinoleffe v Reggina AU @ 18.50 Brescia v Padova 0-1 @ 15.50 1-2 @ 23 Cesena v Piacenza 0-1 @ 14.50 1-2 @ 20 Triestina v Frosinone 0-1 @ 14 1-2 @ 17.50 AU @ 15.50 Xanthi v Panathinaikos 1-0 @ 14.50 2-1 @ 29 3-1 @ 130 Arsenal v Everton 0-1 @ 30 Coventry v Barnsley 0-0 @ 12.50 Derby v Scunthorpe 0-1 @ 15.50 Leeds v Wycombe 0-1 @ 42 1-1 @ 14.50 Norwich v Exeter 0-0 @ 18.50 0-1 @ 30 Gimnastic v Celta Vigo AU @ 19 Levadiakos v PAOK 2-0 @ 40 2-1 @ 25 Maritimo v Guimaraes 0-1 @ 10 1-2 @ 15.50 1-3 @ 48 Murcia v Elche 3-1 @ 28 Sociedad v Cadiz 0-1 @ 16.50 0-2 @ 48 Birmingham v Man Utd 3-1 @ 110 Monaco v Tours 0-1 @ 15.50 1-2 @ 22 Sevilla v Santander 0-1 @ 20 Inter v Siena 0-0 @ 19 0-1 @ 46 Le Mans v Valenciennes 1-2 @ 14.50 Rennes v Caen 1-2 @ 21 Rio Ave v Benfica 2-1 @ 24 |
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Leeds v Wycombe 1-1 @ 14.50 ***won***
Maritimo v Guimaraes 0-1 @ 10 ***won*** 97 from 1539 @ 19.54 ( 23.2% ROI ) crawling to the magic 100 - and should still be over 20% !! _ then it'll be Cartwheel time !! |
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Hercules v Cartagena
0-1 @ 13.50 Orduspor v Galatasaray 0-0 @ 17.50 1-0 @ 28 |
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Well done! What's the next stage after you reach 100?
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Rocket - next stage for me is to start staking 'serious'. I am pessimistic by nature and have only bet minimum stakes right thru these tests. But over 20% ROI is enough to bury my pessimism - mostly !
I have conjured up further 'tweaks' to the spreadsheet - but i am loathe to implement them as i do beleive in the ol' saying "if it aint broke - dont**it", so i'll leave as is and run with it.... |
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Hamilton v Rangers
0-0 @ 19.50 Asteras Tripolis v Kavala 0-2 @ 28 1-2 @ 19.50 Olympiacos v Larissa 2-2 @ 65 Bologna v Cagliari 0-1 @ 10.50 Fiorentina v Bari 0-1 @ 17 1-2 @ 24 Genoa v Catania 0-1 @ 18.50 Napoli v Sampdoria 1-2 @ 19.50 Palermo v Atalanta 0-1 @ 18 1-2 @ 23 |
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Aris Thes. v Iraklis
0-1 @ 17 0-2 @ 55 1-2 @ 34 Cordoba v Rayo Vallecano AU @ 21 Deportivo v Osasuna 1-2 @ 18 Girona v Las Palmas 0-1 @ 10.50 Levante v Real Union 0-1 @ 13 AEK v Atromitos 1-1 @ 10 Academica v Naval 0-1 @ 12 1-2 @ 18.50 GL All. |
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Bologna v Cagliari 0-1 @ 10.50 ***won***
98 from 1562 @ 19.45 ( 22.0% ROI ) Juventus v AC Milan 0-1 @ 11 Porto v Leiria 0-0 @ 16 |
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98 from 1564 @ 19.45 ( 21.9% ROI )
Besiktas v Kasimpasa 0-1 @ 26 Tours v Istres 1-2 @ 24 Birmingham v Nottm Forest 0-0 @ 9.80 1-3 @ 85 Roma v Triestina 0-0 @ 26 0-1 @ 48 3-0 @ 9.80 |
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St Mirren v Aberdeen
1-2 @ 14.50 Coventry v Portsmouth 1-0 @ 10 Le Mans v Bordeaux 1-0 @ 13.50 2-0 @ 38 2-1 @ 23 |
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98 from 1572 @ 19.45 ( 21.2% ROI )
Altay v Eskisehirspor 1-3 @ 36 3-1 @ 32 Denizli Belediyespor v Orduspor 1-0 @ 13.50 AC Milan v Novara 0-1 @ 42 Bursaspor v Tarsus Idman Yurdu 1-1 @ 17.50 Guingamp v Paris St-G 1-0 @ 12.50 Lens v Lorient 1-2 @ 16.50 Lille v Rennes 0-2 @ 34 Toulouse v Nancy 0-1 @ 11 Fenerbahce v Tokatspor 0-0 @ 27 1-1 @ 17.50 Academica v Porto 1-0 @ 13.50 Osasuna v Hercules 1-2 @ 21 Santander v Alcorcon 1-2 @ 27 |
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would be good to see you reach the magic 100 today Fatal! GL
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Guingamp v Paris St-G 1-0 @ 12.50 ***won***
1 to go ... |
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Juventus v Napoli
0-0 @ 13 Sevilla v Barcelona 0-1 @ 11.50 1-0 @ 19 Leiria v Sp Lisbon 1-0 @ 11.50 |
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Great stuff, Fatal. Really enjoyed the first 100. Will you be keeping us informed about your next step?
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fancy sending me the original spreadsheet before the tweeks?
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Almost there now, mate. Well done.... :)
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Lens v Lorient 1-2 @ 16.50 ***won***
Sevilla v Barcelona 0-1 @ 11.50 ***won*** Final Stats.. 101 from 1590 @ 19.27 ( 22.4% ROI ) Hallelujah brothers ! IT CAN BE DONE !!. |
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Well done Fatal. I hope you make your fortune!
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Excellent stuff, what a thread. Looking forward to the next one if there will be one.
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Rocket - no point really, sending out spreadsheets without very detailed explanations & i aint keen on the 'dead' time involved in that - sorry.
Cynth - I'll keep stats for this method updated if you wish but dont think i'll continue posting every bet as it is quite laborious. And everyone else - i genuinely thank you all for your well wishes and input along the way, it definitely helped me through those 'dark times ' ... And finally , a very big " Good Luck All " for your own 'Correct Score Torture'. |
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nice one Fatal, would be good to hear how you are getting on from time to time
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WD Fatal. As above post - it would be great if you posted now and then to let us know how it's going.
Good luck.... :) Rasp. |
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FS - why do you think this works (ok, apart from makin a profit)?
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Not sure if you've already answered this but what dictated the number of bets you put on each game? Sometimes you only put on one correct score other times two or three.
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Thank you cres & rasp, will do.
Rocket - My spreadsheet comes up with a figure for each cs, if it is over the value threshold it qualifies if not it doesnt. sometimes none, sometimes one ,sometimes multiple... you've gotta decide where to draw the line and stick to it. Rem - thats a tough one.. my theory is that although there is no doubt correct score markets in general are 'accurate' ( ie over 100 matches ) individual cs's are not necessarily so. When you look at a cs market surely you would see some cs's and say 'thats unders' or 'thats overs'.. ? but i dont trust my instincts , so a statistical and probability based spreadsheet pointing me in the right direction is far more 'convincing' and reliable. With that in mind i eventually tweaked my spreadsheet with factors that now give me a better than 20 % edge in finding the cs's that are over the odds. Thats why it works - perhaps. ( but to be honest i dont really care 'why' it works !! )( it just works !! ) GL ALL. |