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Spain v South Africa
3-0 @ 15 ( 13.64 ) Syrianska FC v Helsingborgs 1-1 @ 8.60 ( 8.17 ) HJK Helsinki v FC Inter AnyUnq @ 14 ( 12.80 ) Haka v Jaro Anyunq @ 11 ( 10.17 ) RoPS v Honka 0-1 @ 10 ( 9.10 ) Fredrikstad v Bodo/Glimt 1-0 @ 13 ( 9.96 ) Molde v Lyn 1-0 @ 9.8 ( 9.19 ) Odd Grenland v Viking 0-1 @ 18 ( 15.74 ) Stromsgodset v Sandefjord 2-0 @ 15.5 ( 13.67 ) Tromso v Aalesunds 0-1 @ 18.50 ( 16.20 ) Valerenga v Rosenborg 1-0 @ 16.50 ( 14.37 ) USA v Brazil 1-1 @ 11 ( 9.67 ) Seattle v Colorado 0-2 @ 25 ( 22.52 ) |
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New England v Atlas 0-2 @ 26 ( 21.83 ) |
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Fluminense RJ v Flamengo 2-0 @ 20 ( 17.94 ) Internacional v Coritiba 3-0 @ 26 ( 22.49 ) Palmeiras v Santos 0-1 @ 17.5 ( 15.47 ) Sport Recife v Gremio 0-1 @ 16.50 ( 14.66 ) Vitoria v Santo Andre 0-1 @ 17 ( 15.60 ) Kansas City v Santos Laguna 2-0 @ 15 ( 13.84 ) Mexico v Guatemala 1-0 @ 11.50 ( 9.23 ) Los Angeles v Houston Dynamo 2-0 @ 19.50 ( 17.50 ) |
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keep the faith Fatal, some going to be ahead after 700+ games, plenty of time for tweaking & adjustment..
GL |
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Thanks Cres, i'll never give up.
And i'm still hopeful of a 10% + ROI after 1000. Internacional v Coritiba 3-0***WON*** 3-0 @ 26 ( 22.49 ) 56 From 761 ( @ 14.28 )( 5.12% ROI ) |
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Stabaek v Brann
0-1 @ 19 ( 16.07 ) England U21 v Germany U21 1-1 @ 7.20 ( 6.84 ) GL All. |
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56 from 763 ( @ 14.28 )( 4.85% ROI )
Ham-Kam v Moss 1-1 @ 12 ( 10.50 ) Hibernians v Mogren 1-1 @ 8.8 ( 7.96 ) |
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Vasco da Gama v Bragantino (Bra) AnyUnq @ 6.20 ( 5.84 ) |
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RoPS v JJK
0-1 @ 14 ( 12.51 ) Tampere United v FC Inter 0-0 @ 11 ( 9.95 ) VPS v HJK Helsinki 0-0 @ 11 ( 10.33 ) Lillestrom v Start 1-0 @ 12.5 ( 11.57 ) |
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&
RoPS v JJK 0-0 @ 16 ( 12.94 ) |
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56 from 771 ( @ 14.28 )( 3.76% ROI )
Nacional (Uru) v Estudiantes 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 6.91 ) Internacional v Corinthians 0-0 @ 16.50 ( 14.28 ) |
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(Silence is golden.)
... FC Olimpi Rustavi v B36 Torshavn 3-0 @ 8.40 ( 7.66 ) Banants v Siroki Brij 0-2 @ 21 ( 18.35 ) & 2-0 @ 15 ( 13.66 ) FC Dinaburg v Nomme Kalju 3-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.52 ) Lahti v Dinamo Tirana 0-1 @ 25 ( 21.54 ) & 3-0 @ 13 ( 11.95 ) Sutjeska v MTZ-RIPO Minsk 0-1 @ 14.5 ( 13.34 ) Valletta v Keflavik 1-0 @ 16 ( 14.51 ) Dinamo Minsk v FK Renova 1-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.64 ) Trans Narva v Rudar 1-1 @ 11.50 ( 10.48 ) Zimbru Chisinau v Okzhetpes 3-0 @ 11 ( 10.70 ) not40* Anorthosis v Kaerjeng 3-0 @ 7 ( 6.12 ) Grevenmacher v Vetra 2-1 @ 36 ( 30.69 ) Haladas v Irtysh 2-0 @ 8.40 ( 7.78 ) Randers v Linfield 0-1 @ 38 ( 30.76 ) Slaven Belupo v Birkirkara 3-0 @ 7.40 ( 6.54 ) Spartak Trnava v Inter Baku 0-1 @ 16.50 ( 14.94 ) Fram v The New Saints 2-0 @ 10.50 ( 9.85 ) NSI Runavik v Rosenborg 0-3 @ 8.80 ( 7.19 ) Sligo Rovers v Vllaznia 3-0 @ 17 ( 15.31 ) Buducnost Podgorica v Polonia Warsaw 2-0 @ 26 ( 22.78 ) Helsingborgs v MIKA 1-0 @ 10.50 ( 9.57 ) Lisburn Distillery v Zestaponi 2-0 @ 17.50 ( 16.22 ) Motherwell v Llanelli 2-0 @ 8.40 ( 7.75 ) |
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Fatal
May I ask which spread betting firm you're using to get spreads on these (somewhat obscure) games? Many thanks. |
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Banants v Siroki Brij 0-2***WON***
0-2 @ 21 ( 18.35 ) NSI Runavik v Rosenborg 0-3***WON*** 0-3 @ 8.80 ( 7.19 ) 58 from 797 ( @ 14.30 )( 4.11% ROI ) Gremio v Cruzeiro 0-0 @ 17.50 ( 15.11 ) "abs" i'm generating my own 'spreads' thru calculations from the current cs odds of each market. In theory the market itself is the most accurate guide to whats likely in a match. Need a much better next 200bets if i'm going to finish this experiment with a ROI anywhere near 10 % . |
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Bray v Bohemians
0-3 @ 12.50 ( 11.42 ) Dundalk v Derry 2-0 @ 22 ( 20.36 ) & 2-1 @ 17 ( 16 ) Galway Utd v Cork 0-3 @ 25 ( 23.76 ) 0-1 @ 7 ( 6.91 ) & 3-0 @ 110 ( 81.57 ) ( All 3 very very 'even' markets.. GL all. ) |
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Blimey ! Very unlucky tonite, mate.... :(
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(yehp , not had a lot of that lately..)
58 from 804 ( @ 14.30 )( 3.21% ROI ) Canada v Jamaica 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.21 ) Racing Club v Newells 0-0 @ 15 ( 12.08 ) Costa Rica v El Salvador 0-0 @ 14.50 ( 11.95 ) Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes 0-0 @ 18 ( 15.91 ) GL All. |
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Omiya v Yokohama FM 0-2 @ 15.50 ( 14.49 ) Kashiwa v Niigata 2-0 @ 18 ( 16.12 ) Kobe v FC Tokyo 0-2 @ 19.50 ( 17.73 ) Oita v Chiba 1-1 @ 7.60 ( 7.20 ) Shimizu v Kyoto 0-1 @ 17.50 ( 15.65 ) Yamagata v Urawa 1-1 @ 9.20 ( 8.45 ) KuPS v RoPS 0-1 @ 12 ( 11.37 ) Brommapojkarna v GAIS 0-1 @ 12 ( 11.21 ) Hammarby v Trelleborgs 3-0 @ 36 ( 31.64 ) Sandefjord v Odd Grenland 0-2 @ 19 ( 16.90 ) |
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Kobe v FC Tokyo 0-2***WON***
0-2 @ 19.50 ( 17.73 ) Tampere United v JJK 0-0 @ 21 ( 18.41 ) St Patricks v Shamrock Rovers 0-3 @ 46 ( 34.92 ) Banfield v Tigre 0-0 @ 13 ( 12.14 ) Rosario v Godoy Cruz 0-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.77 ) San Lorenzo v Argentinos Juniors 0-1 @ 15.50 ( 14.17 ) Flamengo v Vitoria 0-1 @ 18.50 ( 15.44 ) Santo Andre v Barueri 0-1 @ 17 ( 14.60 ) Santos v Sport Recife 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.84 ) GL all. |
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Columbus v D. C. United 0-0 @ 16 ( 14.75 ) Honduras v Haiti 1-2 @ 32 ( 28.13 ) River Plate v Estudiantes 0-0 @ 17 ( 14.09 ) Colorado v Chicago Fire 0-0 @ 18 ( 14.30 ) Dallas v New York Red Bulls 0-2 @ 29 ( 25.19 ) Kansas City v Houston Dynamo 2-0 @ 21 ( 18.37 ) USA v Grenada 1-1 @ 26 ( 16.29 ) Los Angeles v New England 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.58 ) |
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59 from 834 ( @ 14.39 )( 1.83% ROI )
Hiroshima v Iwata 0-1 @ 25 ( 18.68 ) Nagoya v G-Osaka 1-0 @ 16.50 ( 14.20 ) |
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The accuracy of this market is impressive and is**out by your ROI approaching 0%. I hope you have found an edge but is appearing less likely now than at the beginning.
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- wish i could argue with you Lily, but all i have at the moment is my 'feeling' that i have found an edge and that the ROI has just been eaten recently by the inevitable losing streak, which will eventually swing around, here's hopin anyway.
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Kawasaki v Kashima
0-0@ 17.50 ( 15.46 ) |
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Rosenborg v Lov Ham
1-1 @ 18.50 ( 16.20 ) Tromso v Bryne 3-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.50 ) FC Inter v Lahti 0-1 @ 13 ( 12.32 ) IFK Mariehamn v VPS 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.65 ) Jaro v HJK Helsinki 2-0 @ 24 ( 21.12 ) MyPa v Haka 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.11 ) Bodo/Glimt v Molde 1-0 @ 18.50 ( 15.82 ) Djurgardens v Helsingborgs 0-2 @ 14.50 ( 13.53 ) Gefle v Hacken 0-2 @ 26 ( 23.75 ) Gimnasia La Plata v Gimnasia Jujuy 0-1 @ 22 ( 19.05 ) Lyn v Stabaek 1-0 @ 16.50 ( 14.59 ) Orebro v AIK 0-2 @ 19 ( 17.59 ) San Martin v Lanus 3-0 @ 40 ( 33.02 ) Start v Stromsgodset 0-1 @ 19 ( 16.81 ) Viking v Lillestrom 0-1 @ 17 ( 14.60 ) Aalesunds v Valerenga 0-2 @ 15.50 ( 14.11 ) Velez v Huracan 2-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.82 ) Sligo Rovers v Drogheda 0-2 @ 18 ( 17.15 ) Atletico-MG v Botafogo RJ 0-1 @ 23 ( 18.57 ) Coritiba v Sao Paulo 0-2 @ 18 ( 16.29 ) Gremio v Atletico-PR 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.53 ) Panama v Guadeloupe 0-2 @ 32 ( 27.62 ) Avai v Palmeiras 0-2 @ 16 ( 14.98 ) Nautico v Internacional 2-0 @ 22 ( 20.07 ) GL All. |
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Nicaragua v Mexico
1-2 @ 17.50 ( 12.46 ) |
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Hiroshima v Iwata 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 25 ( 18.68 ) 60 From 862 ( @ 14.57 )( 1.43% ROI ) Khimki v Rubin Kazan 0-0 @ 15 ( 13.78 ) Honka v TPS 0-1 @ 17 ( 15.06 ) Brann v Fredrikstad 0-1 @ 25 ( 19.58 ) Elfsborg v Orgryte 3-0 @ 8.80 ( 8.13 ) Malmo FF v Kalmar FF 0-1 @ 13 ( 11.78 ) Halmstads v IFK Goteborg 1-1 @ 7.40 ( 7.22 ) & 2-0 @ 19 ( 17.84 ) FC Basel v Panathinaikos 1-0 @ 14 ( 12.58 ) just 9 from last 259 ( @ 18.37 )( @ 3.5% strikeRate) ( previous strikeRate 8.5% ! ) Gimme a break Murph ! |
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Elfsborg v Orgryte 3-0***WON***
3-0 @ 8.80 ( 8.13 ) 61 from 870 ( @ 14.48 )( 1.50% ROI ) Cork v St Patricks 3-0 @ 16.50 ( 14.43 ) |
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Fatal
Thanks for the reply earlier - I should have acknowledged... That's a pretty complicated calculation trying to get a maximum likelihood estimator for two poisson means that need to be derived from products of their repective probabilities for different scores. Do you have some clever algorithm? Well done. It might be somewhere earlier on this thread but I have a feeling that posson underestimates low scores a little. I've read somewhere that negative binomial might give a better "fit". I've been thinking about this for a while but can't get my head round the parameters. |
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Jamaica v Costa Rica
1-0 @ 13 ( 12.03 ) |
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Rochester Rhinos v Wilmington
1-2 @ 22 ( 19.54 ) |
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No worries Abs. It is complex , but the theory is simple. I havent found Poisson underestimates low scores, just draws.. which ive adjusted for slightly. Easy to get lost in the maths with this sort of method, so i recommend keeping things as simple as possible, after all its a simple game !!
GL. Charleston Battery v Houston Dynamo 0-0 @ 12 ( 10.75 ) D. C. United v Harrisburg 1-1 @ 11.50 ( 10.02 ) Guarani (Bra) v Brasiliense 0-2 @ 29 ( 23.22 ) El Salvador v Canada 0-2 @ 13 ( 12.24 ) Seattle v Kansas City 0-0 @ 19.50 ( 13.84 ) |
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61 from 878 ( @ 14.48 )( 0.58% ROI )
Leverkusen v Al Ahly 0-1 @ 26 ( 20.53 ) & 1-2 @ 30 ( 22.81 ) Alta v Molde 0-1 @ 13 ( 11.57 ) Hacken v Orebro 0-2 @ 18 ( 16.72 ) & 2-0 @ 15 ( 14.11 ) Mjallby v AIK 2-0 @ 20 ( 18.53 ) Notodden v Bryne 0-2 @ 23 ( 20.20 ) Sogndal v Aalesunds 0-2 @ 21 ( 18.34 ) Stabaek v Lillestrom 0-1 @ 22 ( 17.39 ) Valerenga v Mjondalen 2-0 @ 9.60 ( 8.15 ) Galatasaray v Wydad Casablanca 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.12 ) Mogren v Hibernians 0-1 @ 38 ( 32.58 ) GL All.. |
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Haiti v Grenada 1-2 @ 27 ( 24.02 ) Corinthians v Fluminense RJ 0-1 @ 18.50 ( 16.20 ) Estudiantes v Cruzeiro 0-1 @ 13 ( 12.08 ) USA v Honduras 0-0 @ 17 ( 14.85 ) |
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Alta v Molde 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 13 ( 11.57 ) 62 from 894 ( @ 14.45 )( 00.23% ROI ) ahh well, into the last 100 of the test with this lot... MIKA v Helsingborgs 2-0 @ 36 ( 29.32 ) Okzhetpes v Zimbru Chisinau 0-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.40 ) Zestaponi v Lisburn Distillery 1-1 @ 12.50 ( 10.97 ) Inter Baku v Spartak Trnava 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 13.32 ) Irtysh v Haladas 1-1 @ 7.60 ( 7.18 ) FK Renova v Dinamo Minsk 3-0 @ 60 ( 51.91 ) MTZ-RIPO Minsk v Sutjeska 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.81 ) Birkirkara v Slaven Belupo 1-1 @ 11.50 ( 9.78 ) Nomme Kalju v FC Dinaburg 2-0 @ 23 ( 20.36 ) B36 Torshavn v FC Olimpi Rustavi 1-0 @ 17 ( 14.69 ) Brann v Lyn 0-1 @ 30 ( 23.76 ) Dinamo Tirana v Lahti 2-0 @ 20 ( 17.08 ) IFK Goteborg v Gefle 1-0 @ 8 ( 7.54 ) Odd Grenland v Fredrikstad 0-1 @ 21 ( 18.10 ) & 2-0 @ 13 ( 11.90 ) Llanelli v Motherwell 1-0 @ 17.50 ( 14.42 ) Siroki Brijeg v Banants 1-1 @ 9.40 ( 8.62 ) Linfield v Randers 1-0 @ 18 ( 15.61 ) GL All.. |
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well after a lot of usually very hard bets to land you are not losing money so u must be doing something right
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Thanks Mas'.
Guadeloupe v Nicaragua 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.55 ) Mexico v Panama 3-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.48 ) |
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Dinamo Tirana v Lahti 2-0***WON***
2-0 @ 20 ( 17.08 ) 63 from 914 ( @ 14.54 )( 00.23% ROI ) Khimki v Saturn Ramenskoe 0-3 @ 42 ( 35.63 ) Bray v Shamrock Rovers 1-0 @ 15 ( 13.53 ) Derry v Drogheda 0-0 @ 12 ( 11.19 ) Dundalk v Bohemians 0-3 @ 20 ( 19.45 ) & 1-0 @ 12 ( 11.79 ) St Patricks v Galway Utd 0-1 @ 13 ( 12.33 ) Costa Rica v Canada 0-2 @ 25 ( 21.64 ) GL All.. |
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63 from 921 ( @ 14.54 )( 0% ROI - into the red now ! )
Sao Caetano v Portuguesa SP 2-0 @ 18 ( 17.04 ) El Salvador v Jamaica 1-1 @ 7.60 ( 7.01 ) |
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Kashima v Omiya 0-1 @ 32 ( 26.32 ) Amkar v Dinamo Moscow 2-0 @ 21 ( 15.71 ) Chiba v Kobe 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.82 ) Niigata v Kawasaki 0-2 @ 20 ( 18.17 ) & 2-0 @ 17.50 ( 16.08 ) Urawa v Hiroshima 0-1 @ 22 ( 18.65 ) Yokohama FM v Yamagata 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.77 ) G-Osaka v Shimizu 0-1 @ 18.50 ( 15.89 ) |