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Corinthians v Coritiba 0-1 @ 17.50 ( 15.86 ) USA v Honduras 0-1 @ 27 ( 22.62 ) |
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Kansas City v Columbus 0-2 @ 19.50 ( 17.00 ) El Salvador v Mexico 2-1 @ 23 ( 20.80 ) Real Salt Lake v Colorado 2-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.60 ) |
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Sweden v Denmark 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.32 ) Gimnastic v Castellon 0-1***WON*** 0-1 @ 13 ( 11.69 ) Kansas City v Columbus 0-2***WON*** 0-2 @ 19.50 ( 17.00 ) El Salvador v Mexico 2-1***WON*** 2-1 @ 23 ( 20.80 ) 40 from 473 ( @ 13.36 ) ( 13.04%ROI ) |
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Silkeborg v Frem
1-1 @ 19.50 ( 15.64 ) Kazakhstan U21 v Montenegro U21 0-2 @ 18 ( 16.88 ) Cameroon v Morocco 0-1 @ 18 ( 15.28 ) Empoli v Brescia 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 10.90 ) Grosseto v Livorno 0-2 @ 18.5 ( 15.97 ) Nigeria v Kenya 1-1 @ 17.5 ( 13.30 ) Eibar v Girona 2-0 @ 20 ( 16.90 ) Egypt U20 v Netherlands U20 2-0 @ 36 ( 30.43 ) Huesca v Sevilla At. 0-0 @ 17 ( 15.64 ) Levante v Elche 0-2 @ 30 ( 24.74 ) U.A.E. U20 v Argentina U20 1-0 @ 27 ( 25.39 ) Tenerife v Xerez 0-1 @ 16 ( 14.21 ) Atletico-PR v Atletico-MG 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 13.21 ) Avai v Sao Paulo 1-0 @ 14 ( 12.59 ) Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes 0-2 @ 30 ( 26.37 ) Palmeiras v Vitoria 0-1 @ 21 ( 18.33 ) Sport Recife v Flamengo 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.59 ) Peru v Ecuador 2-0 @ 21 ( 18.41 ) Cruzeiro v Internacional 0-1 @ 14.50 ( 13.20 ) Fluminense RJ v Botafogo RJ 0-2 @ 19.50 ( 18.17 ) Goias v Barueri 0-1 @ 19 ( 16.40 ) New England v New York Red Bulls 0-2 @ 24 ( 20.23 ) |
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Kazakhstan U21 v Montenegro U21 0-2***WON***
0-2 @ 18 ( 16.88 ) 41 from 495 ( @ 13.48 ) ( 11.65% ROI ) ( Back above 10% - All good. ) |
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Dayna,
You look at a market and see that 2-0 is 14 - how would you know to back it? I am confused. _ I compare my poisson figures to the current market figures , multiplied by a 'likelihood factor' which i have incorporated , to give me a numerical output for each Cs. If 2-0 @ 14 was the highest outputted figure then i back it. It is a little difficult to precisely describe what goes on thru my current spreadsheet.. i hope i am helping you or anyone, happy to answer more questions if required... Approaching 500 bets with current method and ROI is over 10% so i am very optimistic at moment. And using a method that sort of uses the market against itself - if you know what i mean... |
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France U20 v Chile U20
1-1 @ 7.80 ( 7.33 ) Portugal U20 v Qatar U20 0-0 @ 14 ( 12.76 ) Syrianska FC v Sundsvall 0-2 @ 20 ( 18.36 ) |
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..
England U21 v Azerbaijan U21 2-0 @ 7.20 ( 6.55 ) GL All. |
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41 from 499 ( @ 13.48 ) ( 10.76% ROI )
Armenia U21 v Turkey U21 1-0 @ 17.50 ( 15.18 ) Iraq v Poland 0-3 @ 20 ( 17.40 ) Azerbaijan v Spain 0-3 @ 7.60 ( 6.84 ) |
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Ham-Kam v Haugesund 0-1 @ 27 ( 21.38 ) ( what can i say - i'm a correct score junky.. ) |
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41 from 503 ( @ 13.48 ) ( 9.88% ROI )
Australia v Bahrain 0-0 @ 12 ( 11.05 ) |
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Japan v Qatar
3-0 @ 9.8 unmatched South Korea v Saudi Arabia 0-2 @ 23 unmatched( 22 ) |
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correction, both matched, of course.
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Iran v U.A.E. 1-0 @ 9.8 ( 8.57 ) FYR Macedonia v Iceland 0-1 @ 13 ( 12.28 ) Belarus v Moldova 0-1 @ 21 ( 17.88 ) Chile U20 v Netherlands U20 0-2 @ 22 ( 18.80 ) Norway U21 v Slovakia U21 0-1 @ 14 ( 13.07 ) Albania v Georgia 0-2 @ 25 ( 22.67 ) Sweden v Malta 1-0 @ 15 ( 11.98 ) Ukraine v Kazakhstan 3-0 @ 7 ( 6.16 ) Finland v Russia 1-0 @ 15.50 ( 13.59 ) Faroe Islands v Serbia AnyUnq @ 3.45 ( 3.35 ) Lugano v Luzern 3-0 @ 40 ( 33.08 ) Estonia v Portugal 0-1 @ 7.60 ( 7.33 ) Netherlands v Norway 3-0 @ 11.50 ( 10.95 ) Italy v New Zealand 3-0 @ 7 ( 6.41 ) England v Andorra 2-0 @ 14.50 ( 8.93 ) |
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Ecuador v Argentina 2-0 @ 19 ( 17.53 ) Colombia v Peru 1-0 @ 7.6 ( 6.97 ) Houston Dynamo v Chivas USA 0-1 @ 15.5 ( 13.92 ) Brazil v Paraguay 3-0 @ 10 ( 8.96 ) Chile v Bolivia 1-0 @ 9.4 ( 8.28 ) Venezuela v Uruguay 1-0 @ 12 ( 11.05 ) Honduras v El Salvador 1-2 @ 28 ( 23.69 ) Mexico v Trinidad & Tobago 1-1 @ 15.5 ( 12.59 ) |
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Iran v U.A.E. 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 9.8 ( 8.57 ) Ecuador v Argentina 2-0***WON*** 2-0 @ 19 ( 17.53 ) Colombia v Peru 1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 7.6 ( 6.97 ) 44 From 529 ( @ 13.39 )( 11.36% ROI ) |
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I see that you're still ahead. Must say I'm surprised. Your methods are a little bizare, but also unique and that's always an advantage.
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Thanks REM - positives from someone who's been floating around on here for 7 years + are very encouraging.
Livorno v Grosseto 0-1 @ 16 ( 14.80 ) Brescia v Empoli 0-1 @ 11 ( 10.02 ) |
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I'm intrigued by your approach. You use the market to work out the market assumptions and then you seem to twist it and use it against the market. That suggests there is a flaw somewhere in the market. My approach is to assume that the market is constructed well (I'm quite sure it is), but I seek out incorrect market assumptions and then look for the best opportunity to exploit them.
You need a larger sample of data, but it's looking good at the moment and you may be able to add refinements. |
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Good wins for you recently FS.
I am still confused. What is the figures in brackets? |
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44 from 531 ( @ 13.39 )( 10.94% ROI )
Argentina U20 v Netherlands U20 3-0 @ 27 ( 23.32 ) France U20 v Chile U20 0-2 @ 19.50 ( 17.76 ) Banfield v Independiente 3-0 @ 26 ( 22.35 ) Dayna, the figures in brackets are what my 'percieved odds' are, someone requested them earlier in this thread. Rem, i am well aware i'll need far more data ( statistics ) before making definite conclusions, if this is still running at over 10% ROI after 1000 bets, would you be more convinced ??... |
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Thanks FS. How do you arrive at your perceived odds?
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from the poisson distributions, with the draws slightly modified.
But the 'twist' is i'm deriving av. goals for each team from the actual correct score odds.. if you go back thru this thread there is a bit more info etc... This is not a simple, five minute , ' thought of it on the throne' type method .. i had to use all my very limited brain power to come up with it and then set up the spread sheet to do it !!. Describing it exactly is difficult, and if it works.. maybe not wise ??. But any way i hope im being helpful. |
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A 1000 bets would be a good sample size. 10% would be a healthy success. More interesting is to know why it is succesful?
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Time will tell...
44 from 534 ( 13.39 )( 10.32% ROI ) Colon v Gimnasia La Plata 0-3 @ 80 ( 49.43 ) |
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Rubin Kazan v Rostov AnyUnq @ 7.60 ( 6.95 ) Spartak Moscow v Khimki AnyUnq @ 5.10 ( 4.72 ) KuPS v MyPa 1-0 @ 12 ( 11.47 ) Dinamo Moscow v Kuban 1-0 @ 6.40 ( 6.07 ) |
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Well Done FS
Have You Ever TRied Backin 2 Possible scores ??? just a thought I would change wot u doin as its working great but just a thought Rob |
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i do sometimes rob, when 2 scores are of identically good value... but rarely.
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Honefoss v Ham-Kam
0-2 @ 21 ( 18.67 ) Alaves v Alicante 0-1 @ 23 ( 19.69 ) Girona v Tenerife 1-0 @ 19 ( 15.66 ) Hercules v Albacete 0-0 @ 19.50 ( 17.11 ) Las Palmas v Rayo Vallecano 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 11.99 ) Sevilla At. v Celta Vigo 1-0 @ 19.50 ( 16.95 ) Xerez v Huesca 0-1 @ 34 ( 26.35 ) Zaragoza v Cordoba 3-0 @ 8.60 ( 7.94 ) Luzern v Lugano 0-1 @ 19 ( 16.20 ) Murcia v Salamanca 2-0 @ 14.50 ( 13.39 ) Rosenborg v Stromsgodset 1-0 @ 11 ( 9.47 ) Rimini v Ancona 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.29 ) River Plate v Tigre 0-1 @ 16 ( 13.82 ) Arsenal FC v Lanus 0-3 @ 24 ( 21.01 ) Velez v Newells 0-1 @ 17.50 ( 15.57 ) Botafogo RJ v Santos 0-1 @ 12 ( 11.24 ) Sao Paulo v Santo Andre 0-1 @ 23 ( 19.70 ) Sport Recife v Atletico-PR 0-1 @ 20 ( 16.18 ) GL All... |
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D. C. United v Chicago Fire
1-0 @ 11 ( 10.28 ) & 2-0 @ 16 ( 14.48 ) Toronto FC v New York Red Bulls 0-1 @ 15.50 ( 13.64 ) Estudiantes v Godoy Cruz 0-2 @ 26 ( 22.24 ) Dallas v Houston Dynamo 1-0 @ 10.50 ( 10.06 ) Kansas City v New England 2-0 @ 12.50 ( 11.67 ) Los Angeles v Real Salt Lake 0-3 @ 90 ( 66.56 ) & 3-0 @ 25 ( 23.18 ) Seattle v San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 @ 16 ( 14.50 ) |
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real salt lake lead 0-2 @ 57' ......!
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0-2 @ 78' and Los Angeles red card.. come on....
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finished 0-2.
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Rimini v Ancona 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.29 ) Sport Recife v Atletico-PR 0-1***WON*** 0-1 @ 20 ( 16.18 ) 46 from 566 ( @13.51 ) ( 9.82% ROI ) Tomsk v Amkar 3-0 @ 14.50 ( 13.44 ) FC Moscow v CSKA Moscow 1-0 @ 12 ( 11.30 ) |
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Saturn Ramenskoe v Lokomotiv
1-0 @ 9.20 ( 8.72 ) |
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Well Done Fatal
Some excellent results - and you can truly be placed in a small group of forum members that have shown a positive ROI over a large number of bets. On the subject of greening out I think you are correct not to "green" out on any prices taken - as the system is showing a positive ROI anyway - however more important than that not all your matches are in running and if you start medalling with laying off who is to say its the non in running matches that "change" in score late on keep up the good work |
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Thanks scotbet, i dont think im in any 'elite' company just yet... but if this is still around 10% ROI after 1000 bets, then i'll be doin cartwheels for sure !
(And bloody Real Salt Lake could've really helped earlier on ! ) |
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San Lorenzo v Huracan 0-0 @ 13 ( 12.14 ) South Africa v Iraq 1-2 @ 32 ( 25.98 ) Sociedad v Levante 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.29 ) Spartak Nalchik v Zenit St Petersburg 1-0 @ 13.50 ( 12.70 ) Jaro v RoPS 0-1 @ 17 ( 15.28 ) Aalesunds v Viking 0-1 @ 12.50 ( 11.52 ) Brann v Lyn 0-1 @ 19 ( 15.99 ) Castellon v Eibar 0-1 @ 20 ( 17.45 ) Gimnastic v Elche 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.56 ) Lahti v IFK Mariehamn 1-1 @ 8.40 ( 7.73 ) Lillestrom v Fredrikstad 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.20 ) Odd Grenland v Bodo/Glimt 0-1 @ 22 ( 18.39 ) Tromso v Sandefjord 0-1 @ 19.50 ( 16.55 ) San Martin v Gimnasia Jujuy 1-1 @ 8.80 ( 8.43 ) Valerenga v Stabaek 0-1 @ 15 ( 12.98 ) New Zealand v Spain 0-1 @ 13 ( 11.08 ) Atletico-MG v Nautico 0-1 @ 23 ( 18.39 ) Brescia v Livorno 0-1 @ 11 ( 10.30 ) & 0-2 @ 24 ( 20.69 ) Columbus v Chivas USA 0-1 @ 12 ( 11.48 ) & 3-0 @ 28 ( 25.23 ) Coritiba v Flamengo 0-2 @ 19.50 ( 17.29 ) Fluminense RJ v Gremio 0-2 @ 20 ( 18.73 ) Goias v Corinthians 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.41 ) Internacional v Vitoria 0-1 @ 19 ( 14.95 ) Palmeiras v Cruzeiro 0-1 @ 13.50 ( 12.69 ) GL All. |
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Racing Club v Boca Juniors
3-0 @ 40 ( 34.24 ) |
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Rosario v Argentinos Juniors 0-2 @ 28 ( 23.75 ) |