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An interesting trend seems to be developing...
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VPS v Jaro 1-2***WON***
1-2 @ 16 12 from 177 ( @ 13.40 ) Gremio v Uni San Martin 1-2 @ 70 ( The name of this thread is becoming very pertinent !! ) |
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13 from 188 ( @ 13.40 )
FC Haka v Tampere United 0-1 @ 9.8 HJK Helsinki v Honka 1-1 @ 7.8 JJK v RoPS 1-1 @ 7.6 MyPa v Lahti 0-1 @ 11 FC Midtjylland v AaB 0-1 @ 19.5 AGF v Esbjerg 2-0 @ 16 Brondby v Randers 1-1 @ 10.5 Ingolstadt v St Pauli 0-1 @ 14.5 Leeds v Millwall 0-1 @ 16.5 |
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correction
12 from 178 ( @ 13.40 ) |
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Hi FS, good luck with this, CS is not a market i tend to bet on. Do you mind answerring a few questions...
can you start noting what you believe the prices should be for each bet? Does your method of finding average goals take into account Standard deviation? Do you factor in goals vs favourites/outsiders? As said before, is home/away goals considerred? Is the teams goals against record factorred in? |
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(Pessi - will answer most of your questions shortly)
HJK Helsinki v Honka 1-1***won*** 1-1 @ 7.8 JJK v RoPS 1-1***won*** 1-1 @ 7.6 Ingolstadt v St Pauli 0-1***won*** 0-1 @ 14.5 Back in the Black !! 15 from 187 ( @ 12.71 ) |
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Uni Craiova v Gloria Buzau
1-1 @ 20 ( my odds 12.14 ) Pessi - I have previously mentioned that i am using the current CS market odds themselves to calculate av goals for each team, this infact answers all your questions... Its agreed that the market is 'accurate' , therefore it should have already taken into account all the variables you mentioned. I will show my odds from now on as well as requested. ie. Uni Craiova v Gloria Buzau the market currently believes the 1-1 is a 5% chance I calc it at an 8.2% chance.. Hope this helps. |
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...
Amiens v Guingamp 0-1 @ 9.6 ( my odds 8.45 ) Bastia v Nimes 0-1 @ 9.8 ( 9.12 ) Chateauroux v Clermont 0-1 @ 13.5 ( 11.42 ) Dijon v Angers 0-1 @ 13.5 ( 11.02 ) Lech Poznan v Lechia Gdansk 1-0 @ 7 ( 6.34 ) Montpellier v Ajaccio 0-0 @ 12.5 ( 10.89 ) Sedan v Vannes 0-1 @ 14.5 ( 11.83 ) Steaua Bucharest v Rapid Bucharest 1-1 @ 8 ( 7.40 ) Brest v Lens 1-0 @ 9.8 ( 9 ) Metz v Troyes 0-1 @ 18.5 ( 13.38 ) Reims v Tours 0-1 @ 10 ( 9.13 ) SV Kapfenberg v Sturm Graz 0-1 @ 11 ( 9.67 ) MK Dons v Scunthorpe 0-0 @ 13 ( 11.34 ) Pisa v Piacenza 0-1 @ 18 ( 12.60 ) Good Luck All. |
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Still looking in with interest FatalStats. Just wondering how your stats continually throw up mainly 1-0s etc. Doesn't the poisson distribution occasionally highlight some outlandishly priced high scoring outsiders for you?
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Wish it did Crescit, but low scores seems to be where the value is,
Sort of makes sense though because the ' low end' layers are going to be more willing to lay the smaller odds rather than risk big mullah on the high scores.. maybe. And often the 'cheapest' lay may be seen as the non-favourite @ 1-0 , so its price gets layed out beyond reality. Could be talkin absolute tripe of course.. |
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Fair enough Fatal. Looks like you are managing to back at prices somewhere over 10% of what you believe the true odds to be so if you are pricing correctly you should be showing a nice return over time.. I wouldn't mind experimenting with this myself, have you downloaded some sort of excel spreadsheet where you input your own values and use poisson to determine value?
cheers and GL |
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Draws don't conform.
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Made up the excel spreadsheet myself using poisson function.
Uni Craiova v Gloria Buzau 1-1***WON*** 1-1 @ 20 ( my odds 12.14 ) Lech Poznan v Lechia Gdansk1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 7 ( 6.34 ) MK Dons v Scunthorpe 0-0***WON*** 0-0 @ 13 ( 11.34 ) Now well in black. 18 FROM 202 ( @ 12.82 ) |
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Lanus v Rosario
0-0 @ 14 ( 12.06 ) Urawa v G-Osaka 1-0 @ 13 ( 11.30 ) |
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Amkar v Rubin Kazan
0-0 @ 9.4 ( 8.67 ) |
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Lokomotiv v Terek Grozni
1-0 @ 6.4 ( 6.20 ) Rangers v Aberdeen 1-0 @ 8.4 ( 7.18 ) Man Utd v Arsenal 0-1 @ 23 ( 15.56 ) |
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Lokomotiv Sofia v Sliven
1-1 @ 15 ( 10.47 ) |
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Rostov v Spartak Nalchik
0-0 @ 12 ( 10.94 ) Bochum v Frankfurt 1-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.29 ) Dortmund v Bielefeld 1-0 @ 9.8 ( 8.66 ) H Berlin v Schalke 1-1 @ 8.6 ( 8.15 ) Hamburg v FC Koln 1-0 @ 9.6 ( 7.97 ) Hannover v Wolfsburg 0-1 @ 13 ( 10.26 ) Hoffenheim v B Munich 0-1 @ 12.5 ( 9.76 ) Leverkusen v Mgladbach 1-0 @ 12.5 ( 10.67 ) Stuttgart v Cottbus 1-0 @ 10.5 ( 8.26 ) W Bremen v Karlsruhe 2-0 @ 12 ( 9.98 ) Bolton v Hull 0-1 @ 12 ( 10.63 ) Everton v West Ham 1-0 @ 7.2 ( 7 ) Middlesbrough v Aston Villa 1-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.69 ) Newcastle v Fulham 1-0 @ 8.8 ( 8.17 ) Stoke v Wigan 0-1 @ 10.5 ( 9.77 ) Tottenham v Man City 0-1 @ 17.5 ( 13.72 ) Falkirk v St Mirren 0-1 @ 11 ( 10.37 ) Hamilton v Motherwell 0-0 @ 10 ( 9.19 ) Hearts v Dundee Utd 0-1 @ 9.8 ( 9.35 ) Kilmarnock v Inverness CT 0-1 @ 10.5 ( 9.67 ) Good Luck All. |
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CS markets imo are very tight. Essentially they are a combination of goal expectancy and goal supremacy. If either of these are wrong then the CSs will be out off line too (although there are easier markets to exploit this).
You seem to continually have a lower goal expectancy than the market assumes. I wonder, if (as you say) you are working out goal expectancy using the correct score odds, how do you factor in Any Unquoted? |
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Any unq is tricky - and im interested in any of your thoughts..
But at the moment i am carrying over the 3 goals percentages of either team into the any unq. ( which i assign 4 goals ) Ie team A may have 75 % of the 3 goals Cs 's so i'd assign it 75 % of the Any unq's tally. What makes you say i seem to continually have a lower goal expectancy than the market assumes.? My goal exp's vary dramatically of course but average 2.40 per game.. |
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18 from 229 ( @ 12.82 )
Back to square, aah the torture of correct score betting... New England v Colorado 1-0 @ 9.6 ( 8.78 ) New York Red Bulls v Houston Dynamo 0-1 @ 12 ( 10.71 ) Tigre v Colon 1-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.55 ) Dallas v Seattle 0-1 @ 11.5 ( 10.10 ) Real Salt Lake v Kansas City 0-1 @ 16.5 ( 13.88 ) Chivas USA v D. C. United 2-0 @ 11 ( 10.01 ) |
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18 from 235 ( @ 12.83 )
Tomsk v Spartak Moscow 1-0 @ 11.5 ( 10.44 ) Sevilla At. v Gimnastic 1-0 @ 15 ( 12.67 ) Kryliya Sovetov v Kuban 0-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.73 ) |
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30 matches...
1860 Munich v Aachen 0-1 @ 14 ( 11.70 ) AaB v AC Horsens 0-1 @ 14.5 ( 12.02 ) Augsburg v Wehen 2-0 @ 8.2 ( 7.72 ) FSV Frankfurt v Ingolstadt 0-0 @ 18.5 ( 14.50 ) G Furth v Mainz 0-1 @ 14 ( 11.95 ) H Rostock v Nurnberg 0-1 @ 12.5 ( 11.03 ) Hibernian v Celtic 0-1 @ 8.6 ( 7.65 ) Kaiserslautern v Duisburg 0-1 @ 17.5 ( 14.10 ) Koblenz v St Pauli 1-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.39 ) Oberhausen v Freiburg 1-0 @ 11.5 ( 10.90 ) West Brom v Liverpool 0-1 @ 9 ( 7.94 ) Chelsea v Blackburn 1-0 @ 8 ( 6.92 ) Bologna v Lecce 0-1 @ 15 ( 12.36 ) Fiorentina v Sampdoria 2-0 @ 7.4 ( 6.94 ) Genoa v Chievo 0-1 @ 19.5 ( 14.85 ) Inter v Siena 2-0 @ 8.6 ( 7.61 ) Juventus v Atalanta 2-0 @ 8 ( 6.93 ) Napoli v Torino 0-0 @ 11.5 ( 10.49 ) Palermo v Lazio 2-0 @ 10 ( 8.76 ) Reggina v Cagliari 0-1 @ 16.5 ( 13.35 ) FC Zurich v FC Basel 0-1 @ 16.5 ( 13.29 ) CSKA Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg 0-1 @ 10 ( 9.5 ) Saturn Ramenskoe v Dinamo Moscow 1-0 @ 12 ( 10.39 ) Espanyol v Ath Bilbao 1-1 @ 9.4 ( 8.6 ) Atl Madrid v Valencia 1-0 @ 14 ( 11.59 ) Betis v Almeria 1-1 @ 9.4 ( 8.51 ) Gijon v Malaga 1-0 @ 11.5 ( 10.27 ) Mallorca v Barcelona 0-1 @ 14.5 ( 9.83 ) Numancia v Rec de Huelva 0-1 @ 12 ( 10.87 ) Santander v Valladolid 0-1 @ 15.5 ( 12.96 ) GL All. |
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Oberhausen v Freiburg 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 11.5 ( 10.90 ) Palermo v Lazio 2-0***WON*** 2-0 @ 10 ( 8.76 ) Atl Madrid v Valencia 1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 14 ( 11.59 ) Overall.. 21 from 268 ( @ 12.69 ) Since correction of spreadsheet.. 10 from 115 ( @ 12.14 ) ( 5.56 % ROI ) |
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KuPS v FC Inter
1-0 @ 16 ( 13.78 ) FC Nordsj v Vejle 0-1 @ 17.5 ( 14.79 ) Helsingborgs v Trelleborgs 3-0 @ 13 ( 11.74 ) Orgryte v Hacken 1-0 @ 11 ( 10.29 ) Atvidabergs v Norrkoping 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.58 ) Djurgardens v AIK 0-1 @ 7.4 ( 7.29 ) Boulogne v Strasbourg 1-0 @ 10 ( 9.23 ) Grosseto v Brescia 0-1 @ 11.5 ( 9.95 ) Portsmouth v Sunderland 1-0 @ 8.2 ( 7.75 ) GL All.. |
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Vihren Sandanski v Pirin Blagoevgrad
1-0 @ 9 ( 8.17 ) |
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Djurgardens v AIK 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 7.4 ( 7.29 ) Boulogne v Strasbourg 1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 10 ( 9.23 ) Since correction 12 from 125 ( @ 11.57 ) 11.0% ROI |
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well done mate i admire ppl tht stick to it like u have done 11%ROI in spot on
is there any stakin plans or anything tht could also increase it |
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Thanks Rob, just level stakes for now... i'll only use a stakin plan if/when there is absolutely no doubt this method works...
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FS - well done for your persistence and patience - may i offer a suggestion - only bet when the BF odds are over a given percentage of your odds - seems to me that you bet on too many scores were the margin is very small therefore doesnt give you much room for error - such as the Djurgardens bet . I would suggest that you concentrate on bets that you estimate your odds are 15 - 20 % plus in excess on the BF odds . This would give you a far greater return on investment . Good luck in your quest .
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Shanghai Shenhua v Kashima
0-1 @ 9.6 ( 9.26 ) |
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Sepahan v Ettifaq
0-1 @ 14 ( 12.86 ) Thanks Daymor, but % value alone is probably not the 'most' important factor alone. Thats why i decided earlier on to incorporate a 'likelihood' factor into the equation. Otherwise I'd be regularly suggesting 3-3's etc. @ 100-1 plus, just because it was the best % value. Although you're probably right in that it may give me better long term ROI, i suspect it would also mean much longer 'losing streaks' !! ( The 'losing streak' is the 'Fatal statistic' of many a betting theory ! ) |
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Bunyodkor v Al Shabab (UAE)
0-1 @ 24 ( 18.02 ) Sandefjord v Rosenborg 1-0 @ 17.50 ( 14.70 ) Maastricht v De Graafschap 1-0 @ 11.50 ( 10.90 ) |
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12 from 130 ( @ 11.57 ) 6.8 % ROI
Coritiba v Ponte Preta 0-1 @ 20 ( 15.51 ) |
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12 from 131 ( @ 11.57 )
Persepolis v Al Shabab (KSA) 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.45 ) Larissa v Panathinaikos 1-0 @ 20 ( 16.63 ) AEK v PAOK 0-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.80 ) Brommapojkarna v Hammarby 1-1 @ 7.4 ( 7.21 ) Halmstads v Gefle 0-1 @ 15 ( 13.52 ) Malmo FF v Orebro 0-1 @ 14 ( 12.51 ) Lazio v Reggina 1-1 @ 8.4 ( 7.78 ) Young Boys v Sion 1-0 @ 11.5 ( 10.03 ) Shakhtar v W Bremen 0-1 @ 10.5 ( 10.08 ) GL all. |
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Hi FS,
i've recently started toying with the Poisson function for the CS market. I'm trying several things at the mo, laying, backing & dutching. It's fairly early days but the signs are good so far. I'll keep an eye on what you're doing. Keep it up! |
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Rodger that smudger2kuk. and good luck with the torture of cs betting !!
Let me know how you go. Keep in mind, Poisson does underestimate the draws, be careful with AnyUnq, and the AV.goals you input is the (obviously) critical factor... |
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12 from 140 ( @ 11.57 ) - ROI !!
persistance.. Feyenoord v Breda 1-0 @ 10 ( 9.34 ) Groningen v Utrecht 0-1 @ 21 ( 16.39 ) AAB v FC Kobenhavn 0-2 @ 9.6 ( 9.13 ) Austria Karnten v SV Ried 0-1 @ 11.5 ( 10.48 ) LASK Linz v Austria Vienna 1-1 @ 9 ( 8.61 ) Rapid Vienna v Mattersburg 2-0 @ 13 ( 11.37 ) SCR Altach v SV Kapfenberg 2-0 @ 10.5 ( 9.93 ) Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 @ 13.5 ( 11.45 ) Molde v Tromso 0-1 @ 19.5 ( 15.73 ) AIK v Elfsborg 0-0 @ 9.6 ( 9.27 ) GAIS v IFK Goteborg 1-0 @ 16.5 ( 14.24 ) Kalmar FF v Orgryte 1-0 @ 9.2 ( 7.54 ) Trelleborgs v Djurgardens 0-1 @ 12 ( 11.27 ) |
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Just looking at yesterdays results, we have very different 'perceived odds'! I had Lazio-Roma 1-1 as a value lay @ 8.8 and got the 1-0 as value @ 11. I won't bog down your thread with my predictions but may start my own in a week or so, providing the results are still on track (to my peril no doubt)
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well done on that one.
have you made any 'adjustment' for the draws..?? |