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fresh air is over rated...
Otelul Galati v Dinamo Bucharest 0-0 @ 16 GL. |
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Trelleborgs v AIK 1-0 ***WON***
1-0 @ 9 4 from 23 ( @ 11.75 ) Palmeiras v Sport Recife 0-1 @ 18.5 |
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4 from 24 ( @ 11.75 )
Shandong Luneng v G-Osaka 2-0 @ 21 |
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...
Poli Iasi v Arges Pitesti AnyUnq. @ 18.5 Rapid Bucharest v CS Otopeni 1-1 @ 12.5 FC Moscow v Rubin Kazan 0-0 @ 11.5 HJK Helsinki v IFK Mariehamn 1-0 @ 9 Slavia Prague v Slovacko 1-2 @ 44 |
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...
Bodo/Glimt v Stabaek 1-0 @ 15.5 Hammarby v Kalmar FF 1-0 @ 9.4 Molde v Valerenga 1-0 @ 10 Sandefjord v Viking 1-0 @ 10.5 Start v Lillestrom 2-0 @ 13 Stromsgodset v Aalesunds 1-0 @ 10 Orgryte v Brommapojkarna 1-0 @ 10 Chelsea v Barcelona 2-0 @ 19 Lyn v Rosenborg 1-0 @ 15.5 Good Luck All. |
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Poli Iasi v Arges Pitesti 4-0***WON***
AnyUnq. @ 18.5 5 From 39 ( @ 13.10 ) Kansas City v D. C. United 1-0 @ 9.8 Corinthians v Atletico-PR 0-0 @ 21 Uni San Martin v Gremio 1-0 @ 13.5 Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles 1-0 @ 10.5 |
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5 from 43 ( @ 13.10 )
ROI 52.3% feel like im postin to myself here, but will continue whilst results remain as promising...! JJK v FC Haka 1-0 @ 10.5 Jaro v KuPS 1-0 @ 8.2 Lahti v VPS 1-0 @ 8.2 RoPS v FC Inter 1-0 @ 12.5 Honka v MyPa 1-0 @ 8.4 Shakhtar v Dinamo Kiev 0-0 @ 10.5 Fredrikstad v Tromso 1-0 @ 11 IFK Goteborg v Gefle 0-1 @ 23 Hamburg v W Bremen 1-0 @ 11.5 Hearts v Hibernian 1-0 @ 6.8 Rochdale v Gillingham 1-0 @ 8 Shrewsbury v Bury 2-0 @ 12 Dundee Utd v Aberdeen 1-0 @ 7.8 Deportivo Cuenca v Caracas FC 0-1 @ 15 |
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Watching with interest mate.
What is your profit/loss to date since beginning? |
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layer1982 05 May 12:26
when was the last time u breathed in fresh air? :D |
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since beginning what sligo ??
my return on investment is at 52.3 % - commission (on the current format) but still very early days.... although i am confident this method will be 'long term' profitable as well... |
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An interesting thread FatalStats. Good luck with it..
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Fatal Stats - half way down thread you are 3 from 83 and then I think you start again with some new filters added. Maybe I am misreading.
A very interesting thread and is helping me with some of my CS lay decisions (i.e. I am keeping away laying at odds you have identified as value to back) |
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thanks crescit, and yes sligo started again with 'likelihood factor ' in... no luck last lot though -
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5 from 57 ( @ 13.10 )
Estudiantes v Libertad 1-0 @ 7.8 Universidad de Chile v Cruzeiro 1-0 @ 12 |
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5 from 59 ( @ 13.10 )
1860 Munich v H Rostock 2-0 @ 17 FSV Frankfurt v Duisburg 1-0 @ 11 Kaiserslautern v Augsburg 0-1 @ 22 Oberhausen v Wehen 0-1 @ 22 Osnabruck v Aachen 1-0 @ 12 |
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Ajaccio v Bastia
0-1 @ 11 Troyes v Dijon 0-1 @ 14.5 Leverkusen v Bielefeld 1-0 @ 9.2 |
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Oberhausen v Wehen 0-1***WON***
0-1 @ 22 6 from 67 ( @ 14.58 ) (cruising along nicely...) Tigre v Argentinos Juniors 1-0 @ 8.8 |
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...
Rangers v Celtic 1-0 @ 9 Millwall v Leeds 2-0 @ 16.50 |
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Cottbus v B Munich
1-0 @ 28 Dortmund v Karlsruhe 2-0 @ 9.2 Hannover v Frankfurt 1-0 @ 11 H Berlin v Bochum 0-1 @ 23 Hoffenheim v FC Koln 1-0 @ 10.5 Stuttgart v Wolfsburg 1-0 @ 14 Blackburn v Portsmouth 1-0 @ 8 Bolton v Sunderland 1-0 @ 8.2 Everton v Tottenham 2-0 @ 13.5 Fulham v Aston Villa 1-0 @ 9.6 Hull v Stoke 1-0 @ 8.6 West Brom v Wigan 2-0 @ 16 West Ham v Liverpool 1-0 @ 21 |
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Why do you expect correct scores to conform to a poisson distribution?
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they conform to poisson, much more than they conform to my own predictions...!
the poisson distribution is just a tool - how its used is what matters... Do you not rate its usefulness at all ?? |
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Lokomotiv Mezdra v Litex Lovech
0-0 @ 18 (^ this cs market has been very strange...! ) AIK v Hacken 0-1 @ 16.5 Ancona v Sassuolo 1-0 @ 9.2 Brescia v Cittadella 0-1 @ 19 Empoli v Ascoli 0-1 @ 25 Frosinone v Albinoleffe 2-0 @ 13.5 Modena v Mantova 0-1 @ 12.5 Parma v Pisa 0-1 @ 22 Salernitana v Avellino 0-1 @ 13.5 |
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Burnley v Reading
2-0 @ 15 FC Kobenhavn v FC Nordsj 0-0 @ 24 ( and thats it for tday. Good Luck All ) |
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I'm unsure that poisson is appropriate. Whether it's useful is another matter. Any approach that beats the market is more than useful.
GL. |
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Rangers v Celtic 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 9 Frosinone v Albinoleffe 2-0***WON*** 2-0 @ 13.5 8 from 94 ( @ 13.72 ) Columbus v Kansas City 2-0 @ 11 Colon v San Martin 0-1 @ 17 D. C. United v Toronto FC 2-0 @ 11.5 Chicago Fire v New England 1-0 @ 8.8 Houston Dynamo v Dallas 0-1 @ 16 |
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8 from 99 ( @ 13.72 )
Dinamo Moscow v CSKA Moscow 1-0 @ 12 Tenerife v Murcia 0-0 @ 17 Terek Grozni v Amkar 0-1 @ 12.5 Bury v Shrewsbury 1-0 @ 8 |
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...
G Furth v Nurnberg 2-0 @ 17 Ingolstadt v Rot-Weiss Ahlen 2-0 @ 12.5 Koblenz v Freiburg 1-0 @ 13 SonderjyskE v Vejle 1-0 @ 11 St Pauli v Mainz 1-0 @ 17.5 ADO Den Haag v Vitesse 1-0 @ 12 AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen 2-0 @ 12.5 Ajax v Twente 1-0 @ 12.5 De Graafschap v Volendam 1-0 @ 10 Feyenoord v Roda JC 1-0 @ 10 Groningen v Breda 1-0 @ 11.5 Heracles v Utrecht 1-0 @ 11 Malmo FF v Djurgardens 0-1 @ 16.5 Man Utd v Man City 0-1 @ 38 NEC Nijmegen v Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 @ 12 |
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Willem II v PSV
1-0 @ 29 Zenit St Petersburg v Kryliya Sovetov 0-1 @ 20 |
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Ajax v Twente 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 12.5 Groningen v Breda 1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 11.5 10 from 120 ( @ 13.38 ) 11.5 % ROI ( - commission ) |
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YOUR A K NOB JUST DO YOUR BETTING AND KEEP IT TO YOURSELF YA BORING WH ORE
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thanx for that insightful input..
Rubin Kazan v Tomsk 1-0 @ 6.8 Spartak Moscow v Saturn Ramenskoe 0-1 @ 21 Spartak Nalchik v Khimki 0-1 @ 13.5 |
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...
Kuban v Rostov 2-0 @ 12.50 Banik Ostrava v Mlada Boleslav 2-0 @ 15.5 Sheff Utd v Preston 0-1 @ 14 Newcastle v Middlesbrough 1-0 @ 8.2 |
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...
MyPa v HJK Helsinki 1-0 @ 11 AaB v AGF 1-0 @ 9.6 Brommapojkarna v Helsingborgs 1-0 @ 12 Diyarbakirspor v Gaziantep BB 0-1 @ 19 Kalmar FF v Trelleborgs 0-1 @ 14.5 Orebro v Hammarby 0-1 @ 13 Lens v Reims 0-1 @ 19 Treviso v Vicenza 1-0 @ 9.4 GL All. |
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Well done FS. Win on the Mypa game.
Looked at this thread before laying score on LCS thread. Should have read the warning signs when you had flagged it! |
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MyPa v HJK Helsinki 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 11 The only 1 though Sli , slim pickins lately, but still in the black... 11 from 135 ( @ 13.16 ) 7.2 % ROI |
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Aachen v Kaiserslautern
2-0 @ 16 Duisburg v Oberhausen 0-1 @ 23 H Rostock v Augsburg 0-1 @ 19.5 Wehen v 1860 Munich 1-0 @ 11.5 FC Basel v Luzern 0-1 @ 36 FC Vaduz v FC Zurich 1-0 @ 46 B Munich v Leverkusen 0-1 @ 38 FC Koln v H Berlin 1-0 @ 16.5 Guingamp v Montpellier 1-0 @ 10 Karlsruhe v Hannover 1-0 @ 10 Wolfsburg v Dortmund 1-0 @ 13.5 Aberdeen v Hearts 1-0 @ 8 Celtic v Dundee Utd 0-1 @ 40 Reading v Burnley 1-0 @ 7.8 Lyon v Nantes 0-1 @ 30 |
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11 from 150 ( @ 13.16 )
( in the red now.!) Ponte Preta v Coritiba 0-0 @ 14.5 Sport Recife v Palmeiras 0-0 @ 12.5 Caracas FC v Deportivo Cuenca 0-1 @ 25 |
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FS,
Good luck with this. Have you corrected the Poisson at all? I think most people believe it underestimates draws. JP |
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i think the draws are allowed for because im using the actual correct score odds themselves to calc. the poisson inputs...
Thanks for question cause i found a calculation flaw in my spreadsheet, which ive corrected... Very unprofessional i know but Rome wasnt built in a day y know... |
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11 From 153 ( @ 13.16 )
2 dozen here to get me back in black !.... Freiburg v G Furth 0-2 @ 22 & 2-0 @ 17.5 (Both identically good value ! ) Mainz v FSV Frankfurt 0-1 @ 28 Nurnberg v Osnabruck 0-1 @ 34 Rot-Weiss Ahlen v Koblenz 2-0 @ 18.5 FC Nordsj v SonderjyskE 0-1 @ 19.5 Panathinaikos v AEK 0-2 @ 34 VPS v Jaro 1-2 @ 16 Auxerre v Grenoble 0-2 @ 30 Fenerbahce v Besiktas 1-2 @ 14.5 Le Havre v St Etienne 1-1 @ 8 Le Mans v Paris St-G 2-0 @ 23 Nancy v Lorient 0-1 @ 10.5 Nice v Marseille 1-0 @ 16.5 Rennes v Caen 0-1 @ 13.5 Sochaux v Monaco 0-1 @ 15 Toulouse v Lille 0-1 @ 10.5 & 0-2 @ 22 (Both identically good value ! ) Bielefeld v Hoffenheim 0-1 @ 14.5 Cottbus v Mgladbach 0-2 @ 19.5 Frankfurt v W Bremen 2-0 @ 19 Hamburg v Bochum 0-1 @ 28 Schalke v Stuttgart 2-0 @ 17.5 Hibernian v Rangers 1-0 @ 23 Wigan v Man Utd 1-1 @ 12 Ath Bilbao v Barcelona 2-1 @ 28 Good Luck All. |