General Betting
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28 Apr 09
12:10
Joined:
Date Joined:
15 Feb 08
Testing the theory that this very tough market is in fact quite 'accurate' - By running actual odds of each CS market thru my old Poisson spreadsheet to give 'expected teams goals' and therefore best ' value ' available odds.
Just a theory of course...
Scunthorpe v Cheltenham
0-0 @ 16.50
Barcelona v Chelsea
3-0 @ 18.50
IFK Goteborg v Orebro
0-0 @ 13
Northampton v MK Dons
0-0 @ 12.5
Dinamo Bucharest v Poli Timisoara
0-0 @ 11
GKS Belchatow v Odra Wodzislaw
0-0 @ 11.5
FC Kobenhavn v Nordvest
3-3 @ 180
Alta v Kongsvinger
AnyUnq @ 4.6
(criticism welcomed...)
GL All...
Just a theory of course...
Scunthorpe v Cheltenham
0-0 @ 16.50
Barcelona v Chelsea
3-0 @ 18.50
IFK Goteborg v Orebro
0-0 @ 13
Northampton v MK Dons
0-0 @ 12.5
Dinamo Bucharest v Poli Timisoara
0-0 @ 11
GKS Belchatow v Odra Wodzislaw
0-0 @ 11.5
FC Kobenhavn v Nordvest
3-3 @ 180
Alta v Kongsvinger
AnyUnq @ 4.6
(criticism welcomed...)
GL All...
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close but no cigar
0 from 8 Libertad v San Luis 0-0 @ 12.5 San Lorenzo v Universitario 0-0 @ 10 |
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ALL football markets are, in fact, 'quite accurate'.
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No doubt about that cp, but what i'm trying to do here is use the market prices themselves to produce a sort of 'goal supremacy' figure to run thru the poisson and come up with potential 'value' Cs bets.
0 from 10 so far though. |
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Cue for Slicer......
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You called??????
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Can it be done ?
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ITCANBEDONE on correct score laying, but not as above.
I hope this is of assistance. |
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As always, copious amounts of statistics is the only way to prove or diss-prove anything.
Everyone's constructive input much appreciated though !! IFK Mariehamn v KuPS 0-0 @ 15 Lahti v RoPS 0-3 @ 260 AaB v Brondby 0-0 @ 15 Halmstads v Djurgardens 0-0 @ 10.5 Malmo FF v Gefle 0-3 @180 Man Utd v Arsenal 0-1 @ 16 GL All. |
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In play the odds are all over the place. I rarely trade correct score before kick-off.
With markets like over/unders I often build up a position before the game begins. I'm betting/trading pretty much exclusively on football, and for me personally a huge proportion of my profit comes from in-play betting. If you can make a reasonable assessment of the probabilities that are changing rapidly in-play, you stand to make a lot more money. The Barca - Chelsea game yesterday is a good example of this, with odds being offered that were completely irrational at certain stages. |
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Investor, at times the in running betting is tied to the pre match betting too long and doesn't accept that the match is not panning out as the earlier betting suggests. Last evening the market took too long to recognise that Barca was not a 1.72 chance and even at half time the price of the Spanish outfit was still linked to the kick off price. I'm not often a in running bettor and wasn't last evening so not talking through my pocket. More like the opposite.
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0 from 16
Colo Colo v Palmeiras 1-0 @ 15.5 |
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0 from 17
Dinamo Kiev v Shakhtar 0-0 @ 9.6 Brann v Lillestrom 0-0 @ 16 Landskrona v Atvidabergs 0-0 @ 15.5 W Bremen v Hamburg 0-1 @ 18.5 Boca Juniors v Deportivo Tachira 0-2 @130 |
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Is it necessary or even relevant to tally 0 of 17 when you are taking odds of 130?
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What's a poisson?
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it's a french fish
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small chicken I think.
No wonder he's getting ** results if he's putting his guesses through a small chickens backside. |
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Well he got Hamburg right :D
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W Bremen v Hamburg
0-1 @ 18.5***WON*** 1 from 22 (av. 18.50) - Curly - just posting results for the reference of those who may be interested. - grumble - Google poisson, youll work it out ... - Bandido - No it isnt. - nick - Nor that... ( and no, 0 from 17, wasnt a great looking stat, but its early days, come back and criticise if you wish after 100's of 'backside guess'. ) -Panda - ............... what is with that forum name??? |
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Brommapojkarna v Elfsborg
3-0 @ 90 Trelleborgs v Orgryte 0-3 @ 200 Augsburg v 1860 Munich 2-0 @ 14.5 H Rostock v Kaiserslautern 2-0 @ 15 Hacettepe SK v Galatasaray 3-0 @ 420 Amiens v Tours 3-0 @ 44 Bastia v Vannes 0-1 @ 14.5 Piast Gliwice v Wisla Krakow 3-0 @ 180 Austria Vienna v Mattersburg 0-1 @ 32 Bochum v Hannover 0-1 @ 17.5 Club Brugge v Lokeren 0-1 @ 23 Guingamp v Strasbourg 2-0 @ 18.5 Metz v Nimes 0-2 @ 70 Montpellier v Angers 0-1 @ 18 Vicenza v Rimini 3-0 @ 32 Rio Ave v Braga 3-0 @ 75 GL All. |
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Oh Dear!
YOUWONTBETOLD! |
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are you sure you understand exactly what im doin slice ??
( dont get me wrong i respect and admire your experience in the field..) |
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I understand that you are losing in the long term.
Is their any other information I should take into consideration? |
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I am using the current cs odds converted , to tally up total gls scored (theoretically) in 100 identical games , incl Any Unq.
The av. for each team is input for poisson table then selecting the odds which are highest in percentage terms over the poisson odds. Obviously there is a little more tweaking involved, but you get the drift... Not all games show any value at all and are ignored but about 6 in 10 games show 2 or 3 cs's worth noting. thoughts?? |
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How are getting the mean goals scored for your poisson distributions? Are you taking into account home advantage?
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1 from 38 (av 18.5 )
Aberdeen v Celtic 3-0 @ 160 Middlesbrough v Man Utd 3-0 @ 240 |
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B Munich v Mgladbach
0-1 @ 60 Bielefeld v Stuttgart 2-0 @ 36 Frankfurt v Dortmund 2-0 @ 28 Schalke v Leverkusen 0-0 @ 15.5 Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim 0-1 @ 29 Albinoleffe v Brescia 3-0 @ 48 Ascoli v Modena 2-0 @ 18 Avellino v Parma 3-0 @ 75 Brighton v Stockport 0-0 @ 17.5 Bristol Rovers v Hartlepool 2-0 @ 16 Carlisle v Millwall 2-0 @ 15.5 Chelsea v Fulham 0-3 @ 310 |
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Crewe v Leicester
3-0 @ 46 Grimsby v Macclesfield 0-0 @ 15 Hamilton v Kilmarnock 0-0 @ 9.8 Hereford v MK Dons 2-0 @ 32 Hibernian v Dundee Utd 2-0 @ 16.5 L Orient v Huddersfield 2-0 @ 18 Legia Warsaw v LKS Lodz 0-2 @ 150 Mantova v Treviso 0-3 @ 250 Peterborough v Swindon 0-2 @ 48 Pisa v Ancona 0-2 @ 38 Portsmouth v Arsenal 3-0 @ 60 Rotherham v Exeter 0-0 @ 13 GL All.. |
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Grimsby v Macclesfield 0-0***WON***
0-0 @ 15 Carlisle v Millwall 2-0 ***WON*** 2-0 @ 15.5 3 from 64 ( @16.33 ) Colorado v Real Salt Lake 0-0 @ 13.5 Los Angeles v New York Red Bulls 3-0 @ 24 San Jose Earthquakes v Chivas USA 3-0 @ 40 |
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Are you in profit?
If not, do you expect to be after a certain amount of time? |
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3 From 67 ( @ 16.33 )
Not in profit as yet - would hope to be after 100... Hercules v Gimnastic 0-0 @ 16 |
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Rostov v Zenit St Petersburg
2-0 @ 36 Aachen v Oberhausen 0-1 @ 29 Ankaragucu v Ankaraspor 0-1 @ 22 FC Nordsj v FC Midtjylland 3-0 @ 48 Freiburg v FSV Frankfurt 0-1 @ 28 Gaziantepspor v Sivasspor 1-0 @ 13.5 Mainz v Koblenz 0-1 @ 26 Nurnberg v Ingolstadt 0-3 @ 410 Rot-Weiss Ahlen v St Pauli 2-0 @ 16.5 Burnley v Bristol City 0-0 @ 16.5 C Palace v Sheff Utd 2-0 @ 36 |
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Charlton v Norwich
3-0 @ 55 Ipswich v Coventry 0-2 @ 50 Plymouth v Barnsley 2-0 @ 20 |
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3 from 82 ( @ 16.33 )
(A 'Likelihood ' factor now incorporated into spreadsheet - see how we go... ) Botev Plovdiv v Spartak Varna 1-0 @ 10.5 Sparta Prague v Banik Ostrava 0-1 @ 21 FC Haka v Honka 1-0 @ 11.5 Histon v Torquay 1-0 @ 10.5 Gefle v Orebro 1-0 @ 8.4 OB v AGF 1-0 @ 9.2 Elfsborg v IFK Goteborg 1-0 @ 8.2 Duisburg v G Furth 2-0 @ 15.5 Sedan v Lens 1-0 @ 9.8 Bari v Empoli 0-1 @ 14.5 Trofense v Belenenses 1-0 @ 8.2 Aston Villa v Hull 0-1 @ 23 GL All. |
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Botev Plovdiv v Spartak Varna 1-0***WON***
1-0 @ 10.5 Histon v Torquay 1-0***WON*** 1-0 @ 10.5 Duisburg v G Furth 2-0***WON*** 2-0 @ 15.5 Now were cookin ( maybe ), 3 from 12 @ 12.17 |
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FC Seoul v Sriwijaya
1-0 @ 24 |
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3 from 13 ( @ 12.17 )
Shimizu v Chiba 0-0 @ 13 Tianjin Teda v Kawasaki 2-0 @ 24 Farul Constanta v Unirea Urziceni 0-0 @ 10.5 Young Boys v FC Vaduz 1-0 @ 13 |
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...
Hacken v Halmstads 1-0 @ 9.8 Trelleborgs v AIK 1-0 @ 9 Vannes v Chateauroux 1-0 @ 8.4 Arsenal v Man Utd 1-0 @ 9.8 GL All... |
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Singapore AF v Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 @ 32 |
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when was the last time u breathed in fresh air?
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