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4.00 Crystal Prince
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1162.89 points Available odds: 6.2 (betfair) My odds: 9-2(18.18%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 18.81 points WIN |
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Bumped IR IMO
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Winner stopped jockey on 2nd using whip....just did enough to make its chance of winning slim
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4.10 nothing clear so no selecton
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4.20 no selection....MAIDEN SKS
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CLOSING BANK 1144.08 POINTS
Was a better day early on with horses running generally up to reasonable standard....think was picking em better today. The high odds winner made the day.......though I suspect i was to conservative re its chances of winning......factors in favour gave it a reasonable chance in poor race....but at least I selected a horse that many would have ignored......and that is a good sign that my form is improving. Away to help with teaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Gl with bets |
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good work on the big one.
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Selecting was "good" ....not so sure that my probability fig was "good".
Think i was lazy on my calculation on probability to win......... There is a tendency for me on higher odds ones to use the SP odds as guideline.......just plain lazy!!!! The stakes would have been substantially higher had I said say probability was really a 16-1 shot.... Find it hard to calculate probability quickly the high odds ones .........think I am not as bad on say odds up to say 14s on here...... Stiill can't complain too much ...though purpose of thread was to TRY to guess probability of winning......so will try harder in future to be more accurate , subjectively though obviously , on probability of winning ........would have made a helafa difference to profits had I been more accurace....as 40-1 was not the reality of that horse chances ( lightly raced with trainer who can wuin the type of race against some poor horses etc) Thanks bacchanal .......today for you was just a BLIP :D.......Are you French????? Just you seem to do French bets often and use PM etc....... Anyway I'd better help with teaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa....or again I will be the WEakest Link !!!! Cheers the noooooooooooo |
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I hate the French, DFC...
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Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ....... i understand now.....you just love taking money of em :D :D
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Afternoon.
Just had quick look at 12.40 race........and looks wide open ....nothing really that clear . BRAVO BELLE might be worth a small dabble to place.....but ONLY 2 PLACES and the fav might not win.....going casts a big question on all of em!...........so the win on BB and sfc cover bet with fav beating it......too open a race ..SO PASS ON FIRST RACE ! GL with bets today |
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1.00 Qroktou
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1162.89 points Available odds: 3.25 (betfair) My odds: 2-1(33.33%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 24.48 points WIN |
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1.00 Qroktou
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1162.89 points Available odds: 3.25 (betfair) My odds: 2-1(33.33%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE |
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Brain in diferent time zone today !!!!
Should be 2.00 Qroktou ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1144.08 points Available odds: 3.25 (betfair) My odds: 2-1(33.33%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 24.48 points WIN |
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2.10 Music Of The Moor
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1119.60 points Available odds: 12 (betfair) My odds: 8-1(11.11 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 29.15 points WIN |
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What timezone are you in today DFC???
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Brain was just wanting racing to start soon MFS!!!!! Just in Dundee time zoe.......
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zone even
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2.20 Femme De Fer looks the likely winner....but at the odds Asaint Needs Brass might be one to take it on.....but not sure re race ...so leaving alone!
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Going changed at EXETER ....HEAVY mentioned re HURDLES ....but it is in between going ....so makes extra tricky to select which horse .....for me anyway!
Would prefer either HEAVY or SOFT going description..........but that is racing in UK where going can change very quickly! |
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MUSIC OF THE MOOR now 7.4 ...so atleast got value early!
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1.33 £25 £144
1.34 £334 1.35 £54 1.36 £1 1.38 £89 1.40 £540 1.41 £88 1.42 £471 1.44 £2 1.50 £9 £1,529 1.51 £485 1.53 £64 1.54 £42 1.55 £50 1.59 £523 1.60 £83 1.61 £70 1.62 £30 1.63 £20 1.67 £124 1.68 £22 1.70 £864 1.71 £381 1.72 £46 1.73 £16 1.74 £46 1.75 £11 1.76 £6 1.77 £65 1.80 £57 1.81 £61 1.82 £13 1.85 £4 1.90 £282 1.93 £55 1.95 £4 2.00 £2,598 2.02 £280 2.04 £58 2.06 £50 2.10 £304 2.12 £70 2.14 £16 2.16 £144 2.20 £55 2.24 £8 2.26 £48 2.30 £70 2.32 £67 2.34 £10 2.38 £8 2.40 £1 2.42 £32 2.50 £365 2.52 £90 2.54 £24 2.56 £478 2.58 £79 2.60 £4 2.62 £6 2.64 £9 2.82 £11 2.88 £29 2.90 £38 2.96 £20 3.00 £635 3.05 £23 3.10 £454 3.20 £64 3.25 £123 3.30 £115 3.35 £70 3.40 £16 3.45 £24 3.50 £183 3.55 £137 3.60 £16 3.65 £8 3.85 £26 4.00 £130 4.10 £190 4.20 £18 4.40 £240 4.50 £26 4.70 £101 4.80 £24 4.90 £147 5.00 £4 5.10 £10 5.20 £2 5.40 £90 5.60 £4 5.80 £4 6.00 £31 6.20 £6 6.40 £44 6.80 £60 7.00 £332 7.20 £1,417 7.40 £5,626 7.60 £2,604 7.80 £4,131 7.93 £445 £5,186 MUSIC OF THE MOOR at least shortened in odds IR .... |
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Catterick 2.10
1st 3 Kumbeshwar 9-2 2nd 5 Count Bertoni (IRE) 11-2 3rd 6 Music Of The Moor (IRE) 6-1 If was laying off to go all green IR ......would have been a good one .......something I might consider in due course ....... |
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2.30 odds on fav ....not interested in that one.....French breeding there so on going may well win....but no clear one in this race ...so PASS again!
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2.40 a bit open ...so leaving alone
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2.50 CHANDIKA
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1090.45 points Available odds: 14 (betfair) My odds: 9-1(10%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 29.58 points WIN |
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3.00 PLANET OF SOUND
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1060.47 points Available odds: 5.3 (betfair) My odds: 3-1(25%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 70.44 points WIN |
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Kempton 2.50
1st 9 Chandika 12-1 2nd 5 Bookiesindex Boy 6-1 3rd 10 Embra (IRE) 12-1 |
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BANK before 3.00 race was 990.43 points
STAKE BACK ON CHANDIKA WIN 29.78 WIN PROFIT 29.58 X 13 - 5 % 365.31 ----------------------- BANK now before 3.00 race 1385.32 points |
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3.10 not sure on this race ...so PASS.
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BANK before PLANET OF SOUND win was 1385.32 points
STAKE RETURN 70.44 WIN PROFIT ON PLANET OF SOUND 70.44 X 4.3 - 5 % 287.74 -------------- BANK now 1,743.50 points before next race |
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Exeter 3.00
1st 5 Planet Of Sound 4-1 F 2nd 8 Cornas (NZ) 5-1 3rd 1 Twist Magic (FR) 16-1 |
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3.20 not sure re race ...not clear ...so PASS.
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wd DFC
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Might keep the ones in cheap seats quiet ....for a wee while :D ...Cheers M
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3.30 Awesome George
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1743.50 points Available odds: 9.6 (betfair) My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 31.21 points WIN |
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3.40 MAIDEN race ...and don't like shape of race ...PASS.
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3.50 Sohcahtoa
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1712.29 points before 3.30 result Available odds: 16.5 (betfair) My odds: 14-1 (6.67 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 5.68 points WIN |
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some great picks last couple of days
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Think I'm getting reasonably "up to date" on how traces currently being run....helps a lot
tobermory!!! Still not happy with my probability guesses on really high odds shots....need to think them through.... CHANDIKA is the bonus one today.....fingers crossed my form is more consistent ...... Cheers |