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ATTEMPT 2 USING KELLY CALCULATOR

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By:
Mudflaps
When: 03 Nov 09 14:39
Great work DFC, well done
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 14:44
The KELLY calculator is a BIG help for me ........and keeps my staking within reasonable proportion to bank size........near end of day ( usually when i am well up !!!!!!! ) my STAKING can get far too high, as was not really relating stake to bank size OR THE CHANCE OF HORSE WINNING.......if the odds were HIGH that was enough for me.........YES there was value ....but I was too lazy to calculate how much........and , being HUMAN ( honestly :D :D ), I would grossly OVER STAKE late in day........

Cheers MFS ...fingers crossed for you on 1st December !!!!!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 14:48
4.00 I'm still having problems on deciding how HEAVY or SOFT going is at EXETER .....and this race looks so wide open that best for me to PASS.

BORERO looks to have a fair chance today ...but will pass again!
By:
Mudflaps
When: 03 Nov 09 14:50
Thanks bud, may need the luck!!!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 14:55
4.10 - Royal Trooper


ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points

ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1706.61 points
Available odds: 6.2 (betfair)
My odds: 4- 1 (20 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 64.95 points WIN
By:
Mudflaps
When: 03 Nov 09 15:02
Think Eijaaz will run close here DFC
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:04
GL MFS ...RT is my nap in comp....only looked at one race earlier when guessing it....GL
By:
Mudflaps
When: 03 Nov 09 15:07
How do you convert your ratings into prices DFC?
By:
tobermory
When: 03 Nov 09 15:13
he doesn't
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:14
Just do ROUGH calc in head based on shape of race and how many horses are a threat to my selection winning on a very simplistic basis !!!!


Nap innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn :D :D :D
By:
Mudflaps
When: 03 Nov 09 15:15
wd
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:16
Catterick 4.10
1st 4 Royal Trooper (IRE) 4-1
2nd 3 Soundbyte 6-1


Horse got hammered in odds near off ...so odds for comp ruined again .......still another GIVENS one wins ...he is in form !
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:17
4.20 not clear for me guessing :D
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:20
BANK was before ROYAL TROOPER winning 1641.66 points


STAKE BACK ON WIN 64.95
PROFIT ON WIN 5.2 X 64.95 - 5% 320.85
----------------
BANK now before next race 2,027.56 points
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:23
4.30 - Gilsland


ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points

ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 2027.56 points
Available odds: 10 (betfair)
My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 45.95 points WIN
By:
Muqbil
When: 03 Nov 09 15:30
It would be fair to assume lower than 5% comm now, DFC :)
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:32
LOL Muqbil :D :D ......back down to earth .....only roughly braking-even now from ATTEMPT 1 etc :(
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:38
4.20 £144
4.30 £14
4.50 £90
4.60 £8
4.70 £8
4.80 £192
4.90 £24
5.00 £1,170
5.10 £213
5.20 £63
5.30 £84
5.40 £63
5.50 £2 £124

5.60 £11
5.70 £10
5.90 £31
6.00 £156
6.20 £40
6.40 £4
6.46 £32
6.60 £160
6.65 £52
6.80 £140
6.83 £31
7.00 £1,151
7.01 £210
7.20 £956
7.38 £81
7.40 £1,639
7.57 £34
7.60 £776
7.75 £32
7.80 £635
7.94 £11
8.00 £793
8.12 £12
8.20 £289
8.31 £26
8.40 £60
8.49 £41
8.60 £156
8.68 £47
8.80 £199
8.86 £32
9.00 £416
9.05 £30
9.20 £171
9.23 £41
9.40 £119
9.60 £208
9.69 £33
9.80 £507
10.00 £1 £1,044
10.15 £11
10.50 £1,877
10.61 £9
11.00 £1,305
11.08 £14
11.50 £3,407
11.54 £4
12.00 £3,827
12.46 £4
12.50 £3,272
13.00 £1,913
13.50 £1,234
14.00 £2,324
14.50 £3,885
15.00 £3,869 £349 £4,527


JOCKEY lost a lotta distance going back and forward there .........looks one for race in future!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:39
4.50 Dark Camellia may go close here ...but not tempted on this race ...could well a 3 yo that wins ...a bit open so PASS.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 15:41
Gotta go help with teaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

CLOSING BANK 1981.61 points................................a better day :D

GL with footy bets tonight

Cheers the nooooooooooooo
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 03 Nov 09 16:01
Kempton 4.50 Full Result
1st 2 Dark Camellia 7-1
2nd 4 Lucky Score (IRE) 6-5 F
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:38
Afternoon.

Transferring 1,000 poionts from BANK on ATTEMPT 2 to eliminate loss on ATTEMPT 1....seems prudent thing to do.


ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST ( 1,000 )points
TRANSFER from
ATTEMPT 2 1,000
======


ATTEMPT 2 Bank at close yesterday 1,981.61 points
TRANSFER to cover loss on ATTEMPT 1 ( 1,000.00)
--------------
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 981.61 points
Available odds: 10 (betfair)
My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:39
Afternoon.

Transferring 1,000 poionts from BANK on ATTEMPT 2 to eliminate loss on ATTEMPT 1....seems prudent thing to do.


ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST ( 1,000 )points
TRANSFER from
ATTEMPT 2 1,000
======


ATTEMPT 2 Bank at close yesterday 1,981.61 points
TRANSFER to cover loss on ATTEMPT 1 ( 1,000.00)
--------------
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 981.61 points
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:40
12.40 Boogie Waltzer 5 points EW at BF SP ...no time to work out


COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 981.61 points
Available odds: 10 (betfair)
My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:41
Betfair Starting Price: 26.559 win market
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:42
Betfair Starting Price: 7.0 in place market
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:43
1.06 £126 £117
1.07 £50
1.11 £59
1.13 £5
1.19 £7
1.20 £60
1.30 £106
1.31 £94
1.32 £4
1.50 £6
1.53 £4
1.64 £4
2.00 £36
2.02 £9
2.50 £4
2.82 £4
2.86 £5
2.88 £6
2.90 £24
2.92 £6
2.94 £4
3.00 £47
3.05 £79
3.10 £10
3.15 £91
3.20 £9
3.25 £33
3.30 £42
3.35 £84
3.40 £34
3.45 £10
3.60 £4
3.70 £4
4.00 £0
4.40 £16
4.50 £106

4.60 £241
4.70 £263
4.80 £70
4.90 £20
5.00 £42
5.10 £26
5.20 £7
5.30 £23
5.40 £50
5.50 £86
5.60 £101
5.70 £54
5.80 £0
5.90 £22
6.00 £124
6.20 £60
6.40 £108
6.60 £143
6.80 £33
7.00 £73 £76 £473


IR place odds on BOOGIE WALTZER
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:43
Nottingham 12.40
1st 9 Vilnius 4-1 F
2nd 10 Boogie Waltzer 16-1
3rd 7 Thinking 11-1
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:44
WIN ODDS IR BOOGIE WALTZER

2.00 £26 £501
2.02 £98
2.04 £32
2.10 £126
2.12 £6
2.20 £16
2.22 £14
2.30 £9
2.32 £131
2.34 £54
2.40 £32
2.42 £8
2.50 £42
2.52 £183
2.54 £16
2.56 £7
2.58 £19
2.64 £53
2.70 £23
2.80 £46
2.82 £5
2.90 £25
3.00 £206
3.05 £131
3.10 £83
3.15 £282
3.20 £40
3.30 £78
3.35 £6
3.40 £5
3.50 £228
3.60 £24
4.00 £87

4.10 £4
4.20 £22
4.30 £20
4.40 £12
5.00 £46
5.50 £60
5.60 £18
6.00 £102
6.20 £11
6.40 £10
6.80 £4
7.00 £4
7.20 £60
7.40 £4
7.60 £71
7.80 £109
8.00 £39 £227
8.20 £128
8.40 £93
8.60 £49
8.80 £29
9.00 £141
9.20 £133
9.40 £76
9.60 £173
9.80 £224
10.00 £179
10.50 £22
11.00 £88
11.50 £71
12.00 £111
12.50 £25
13.00 £8
13.50 £103
14.00 £275
14.50 £764
15.00 £922
15.50 £826
16.00 £1,061
16.50 £580
17.00 £671
17.50 £660
18.00 £700
18.50 £518
19.00 £461
19.50 £196
20.00 £760
21.00 £691
22.00 £598
23.00 £1,246
24.00 £974
25.00 £294
26.00 £36
26.56 £166 £6,140
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:47
12.50 - GENERAL SMITH



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 971.61 points before result 12.40 race
Available odds: 11.50 (betfair)
My odds: 8-1 (9.09%)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 4.20 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:51
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 967.41 points before result 12.40 race

PLACE STAKE RETURN 5.00 ON BOOGIE WALTZER
PLACE PROFIT 6 X 5 - 5% 28.50
------------
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1,000. 91 POINTS BEFORE 12.50 RESULT
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:54
1.00 - PEARLYSTEPS



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1,000.61 points before result 12.50 race
Available odds: 9.4 (betfair)
My odds: 7-1 (12.50%)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 15.36 points win
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 11:55
GENERAL SMITH IR odds win market

4.40 £155
4.50 £4
5.00 £238
5.20 £180
5.30 £28
5.40 £16
5.50 £348
5.60
£182
5.70 £504
5.80 £342
5.90 £4
6.00 £295
6.20 £385
6.40 £16
6.60 £272
7.00 £40
7.40 £262
7.60 £21
7.80 £22
8.00 £222
8.20 £11
8.80 £11
9.00 £105
9.20 £319
9.40 £4
9.60 £221
9.80 £726
10.00 £2,334
10.50 £2,156
11.00 £1,908
11.50 £7,334 £477 £4,739
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:00
1.10 PASS as there are a few that could be backed ...too open so no selection
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:06
PEARLYSTEPS IR odds win market

2.32 £223
2.34 £19 £131
2.40 £21 £20
2.42 £30
2.44 £25
2.50 £20
2.52 £8
2.54 £235
2.56 £20 £50
2.58 £158
2.60 £90
2.62 £
123
2.64 £26 £171
2.70 £200
2.72 £15
2.74 £59
2.78 £43
2.80 £6
2.82 £18 £5
2.88 £8
2.90 £42 £18
2.98 £9
3.00 £158 £356
3.05 £7 £111
3.10 £16 £216
3.15 £15
3.20 £154
3.25 £4
3.35 £84
3.40 £150
3.50 £57
3.55 £5 £116
3.60 £25 £112
3.65 £15
3.70 £58
3.75 £177
3.80 £148
3.85 £32 £137
3.90 £44
4.00 £512
4.10 £5 £101
4.20 £4
4.30 £60
4.40 £24
4.50 £18
4.60 £17
4.80 £5 £209
4.90 £52
5.00 £192
5.10 £58
5.20 £80
5.30 £74
5.40 £29
5.50 £0
5.70 £82
5.80 £4
6.00 £6 £133
6.20 £100
6.40 £16
6.80 £0 £321
7.00 £44
7.20 £162
7.40 £8
8.00 £6 £206
8.20 £128
8.40 £447
8.60 £2,159
8.80 £1,884
9.00 £780
9.20 £796
9.40 £1,034
9.60 £970
9.80 £11 £1,483
10.00 £1,805
10.50 £3,700
11.00 £2,982
11.02 £209 £3,362
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:10
1.20 - More Like It



COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 985.65 points
Available odds: 6.6 (betfair)
My odds: 5-1 (16.67%)
Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 9.92 points WIN
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:15
1.30 there are again a few to choose from that might win.....so PASS on this race....GALANT EYE might be a PLACE back ....but leaving alone as CLAIMER race.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:16
1.40 pass again...too open......not prepared to take time to study race ...
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:20
1.55 Juvenile Hurdle race ....I'm not too strong on this type of race ( though sometimes I spot high odds ones that are worth a punt like 2 days ago!!!!!) SO PASS.......a few that catch eye are

Flannel
Causeway King
Navajo Nation


Not sure ...so PASS!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 04 Nov 09 12:22
2.05 at least 6 that may well win...so not clear PASS.
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