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Great work DFC, well done
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The KELLY calculator is a BIG help for me ........and keeps my staking within reasonable proportion to bank size........near end of day ( usually when i am well up !!!!!!! ) my STAKING can get far too high, as was not really relating stake to bank size OR THE CHANCE OF HORSE WINNING.......if the odds were HIGH that was enough for me.........YES there was value ....but I was too lazy to calculate how much........and , being HUMAN ( honestly :D :D ), I would grossly OVER STAKE late in day........
Cheers MFS ...fingers crossed for you on 1st December !!!!! |
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4.00 I'm still having problems on deciding how HEAVY or SOFT going is at EXETER .....and this race looks so wide open that best for me to PASS.
BORERO looks to have a fair chance today ...but will pass again! |
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Thanks bud, may need the luck!!!
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4.10 - Royal Trooper
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank =1706.61 points Available odds: 6.2 (betfair) My odds: 4- 1 (20 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 64.95 points WIN |
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Think Eijaaz will run close here DFC
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GL MFS ...RT is my nap in comp....only looked at one race earlier when guessing it....GL
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How do you convert your ratings into prices DFC?
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he doesn't
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Just do ROUGH calc in head based on shape of race and how many horses are a threat to my selection winning on a very simplistic basis !!!!
Nap innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn :D :D :D |
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wd
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Catterick 4.10
1st 4 Royal Trooper (IRE) 4-1 2nd 3 Soundbyte 6-1 Horse got hammered in odds near off ...so odds for comp ruined again .......still another GIVENS one wins ...he is in form ! |
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4.20 not clear for me guessing :D
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BANK was before ROYAL TROOPER winning 1641.66 points
STAKE BACK ON WIN 64.95 PROFIT ON WIN 5.2 X 64.95 - 5% 320.85 ---------------- BANK now before next race 2,027.56 points |
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4.30 - Gilsland
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 2027.56 points Available odds: 10 (betfair) My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 45.95 points WIN |
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It would be fair to assume lower than 5% comm now, DFC :)
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LOL Muqbil :D :D ......back down to earth .....only roughly braking-even now from ATTEMPT 1 etc :(
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4.20 £144
4.30 £14 4.50 £90 4.60 £8 4.70 £8 4.80 £192 4.90 £24 5.00 £1,170 5.10 £213 5.20 £63 5.30 £84 5.40 £63 5.50 £2 £124 5.60 £11 5.70 £10 5.90 £31 6.00 £156 6.20 £40 6.40 £4 6.46 £32 6.60 £160 6.65 £52 6.80 £140 6.83 £31 7.00 £1,151 7.01 £210 7.20 £956 7.38 £81 7.40 £1,639 7.57 £34 7.60 £776 7.75 £32 7.80 £635 7.94 £11 8.00 £793 8.12 £12 8.20 £289 8.31 £26 8.40 £60 8.49 £41 8.60 £156 8.68 £47 8.80 £199 8.86 £32 9.00 £416 9.05 £30 9.20 £171 9.23 £41 9.40 £119 9.60 £208 9.69 £33 9.80 £507 10.00 £1 £1,044 10.15 £11 10.50 £1,877 10.61 £9 11.00 £1,305 11.08 £14 11.50 £3,407 11.54 £4 12.00 £3,827 12.46 £4 12.50 £3,272 13.00 £1,913 13.50 £1,234 14.00 £2,324 14.50 £3,885 15.00 £3,869 £349 £4,527 JOCKEY lost a lotta distance going back and forward there .........looks one for race in future! |
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4.50 Dark Camellia may go close here ...but not tempted on this race ...could well a 3 yo that wins ...a bit open so PASS.
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Gotta go help with teaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
CLOSING BANK 1981.61 points................................a better day :D GL with footy bets tonight Cheers the nooooooooooooo |
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Kempton 4.50 Full Result
1st 2 Dark Camellia 7-1 2nd 4 Lucky Score (IRE) 6-5 F |
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Afternoon.
Transferring 1,000 poionts from BANK on ATTEMPT 2 to eliminate loss on ATTEMPT 1....seems prudent thing to do. ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST ( 1,000 )points TRANSFER from ATTEMPT 2 1,000 ====== ATTEMPT 2 Bank at close yesterday 1,981.61 points TRANSFER to cover loss on ATTEMPT 1 ( 1,000.00) -------------- COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 981.61 points Available odds: 10 (betfair) My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE |
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Afternoon.
Transferring 1,000 poionts from BANK on ATTEMPT 2 to eliminate loss on ATTEMPT 1....seems prudent thing to do. ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST ( 1,000 )points TRANSFER from ATTEMPT 2 1,000 ====== ATTEMPT 2 Bank at close yesterday 1,981.61 points TRANSFER to cover loss on ATTEMPT 1 ( 1,000.00) -------------- COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 981.61 points |
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12.40 Boogie Waltzer 5 points EW at BF SP ...no time to work out
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 981.61 points Available odds: 10 (betfair) My odds: 7-1 (12.50 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE |
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Betfair Starting Price: 26.559 win market
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Betfair Starting Price: 7.0 in place market
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1.06 £126 £117
1.07 £50 1.11 £59 1.13 £5 1.19 £7 1.20 £60 1.30 £106 1.31 £94 1.32 £4 1.50 £6 1.53 £4 1.64 £4 2.00 £36 2.02 £9 2.50 £4 2.82 £4 2.86 £5 2.88 £6 2.90 £24 2.92 £6 2.94 £4 3.00 £47 3.05 £79 3.10 £10 3.15 £91 3.20 £9 3.25 £33 3.30 £42 3.35 £84 3.40 £34 3.45 £10 3.60 £4 3.70 £4 4.00 £0 4.40 £16 4.50 £106 4.60 £241 4.70 £263 4.80 £70 4.90 £20 5.00 £42 5.10 £26 5.20 £7 5.30 £23 5.40 £50 5.50 £86 5.60 £101 5.70 £54 5.80 £0 5.90 £22 6.00 £124 6.20 £60 6.40 £108 6.60 £143 6.80 £33 7.00 £73 £76 £473 IR place odds on BOOGIE WALTZER |
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Nottingham 12.40
1st 9 Vilnius 4-1 F 2nd 10 Boogie Waltzer 16-1 3rd 7 Thinking 11-1 |
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WIN ODDS IR BOOGIE WALTZER
2.00 £26 £501 2.02 £98 2.04 £32 2.10 £126 2.12 £6 2.20 £16 2.22 £14 2.30 £9 2.32 £131 2.34 £54 2.40 £32 2.42 £8 2.50 £42 2.52 £183 2.54 £16 2.56 £7 2.58 £19 2.64 £53 2.70 £23 2.80 £46 2.82 £5 2.90 £25 3.00 £206 3.05 £131 3.10 £83 3.15 £282 3.20 £40 3.30 £78 3.35 £6 3.40 £5 3.50 £228 3.60 £24 4.00 £87 4.10 £4 4.20 £22 4.30 £20 4.40 £12 5.00 £46 5.50 £60 5.60 £18 6.00 £102 6.20 £11 6.40 £10 6.80 £4 7.00 £4 7.20 £60 7.40 £4 7.60 £71 7.80 £109 8.00 £39 £227 8.20 £128 8.40 £93 8.60 £49 8.80 £29 9.00 £141 9.20 £133 9.40 £76 9.60 £173 9.80 £224 10.00 £179 10.50 £22 11.00 £88 11.50 £71 12.00 £111 12.50 £25 13.00 £8 13.50 £103 14.00 £275 14.50 £764 15.00 £922 15.50 £826 16.00 £1,061 16.50 £580 17.00 £671 17.50 £660 18.00 £700 18.50 £518 19.00 £461 19.50 £196 20.00 £760 21.00 £691 22.00 £598 23.00 £1,246 24.00 £974 25.00 £294 26.00 £36 26.56 £166 £6,140 |
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12.50 - GENERAL SMITH
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 971.61 points before result 12.40 race Available odds: 11.50 (betfair) My odds: 8-1 (9.09%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 4.20 points WIN |
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COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 967.41 points before result 12.40 race
PLACE STAKE RETURN 5.00 ON BOOGIE WALTZER PLACE PROFIT 6 X 5 - 5% 28.50 ------------ COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1,000. 91 POINTS BEFORE 12.50 RESULT |
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1.00 - PEARLYSTEPS
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 1,000.61 points before result 12.50 race Available odds: 9.4 (betfair) My odds: 7-1 (12.50%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 15.36 points win |
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GENERAL SMITH IR odds win market
4.40 £155 4.50 £4 5.00 £238 5.20 £180 5.30 £28 5.40 £16 5.50 £348 5.60 £182 5.70 £504 5.80 £342 5.90 £4 6.00 £295 6.20 £385 6.40 £16 6.60 £272 7.00 £40 7.40 £262 7.60 £21 7.80 £22 8.00 £222 8.20 £11 8.80 £11 9.00 £105 9.20 £319 9.40 £4 9.60 £221 9.80 £726 10.00 £2,334 10.50 £2,156 11.00 £1,908 11.50 £7,334 £477 £4,739 |
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1.10 PASS as there are a few that could be backed ...too open so no selection
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PEARLYSTEPS IR odds win market
2.32 £223 2.34 £19 £131 2.40 £21 £20 2.42 £30 2.44 £25 2.50 £20 2.52 £8 2.54 £235 2.56 £20 £50 2.58 £158 2.60 £90 2.62 £123 2.64 £26 £171 2.70 £200 2.72 £15 2.74 £59 2.78 £43 2.80 £6 2.82 £18 £5 2.88 £8 2.90 £42 £18 2.98 £9 3.00 £158 £356 3.05 £7 £111 3.10 £16 £216 3.15 £15 3.20 £154 3.25 £4 3.35 £84 3.40 £150 3.50 £57 3.55 £5 £116 3.60 £25 £112 3.65 £15 3.70 £58 3.75 £177 3.80 £148 3.85 £32 £137 3.90 £44 4.00 £512 4.10 £5 £101 4.20 £4 4.30 £60 4.40 £24 4.50 £18 4.60 £17 4.80 £5 £209 4.90 £52 5.00 £192 5.10 £58 5.20 £80 5.30 £74 5.40 £29 5.50 £0 5.70 £82 5.80 £4 6.00 £6 £133 6.20 £100 6.40 £16 6.80 £0 £321 7.00 £44 7.20 £162 7.40 £8 8.00 £6 £206 8.20 £128 8.40 £447 8.60 £2,159 8.80 £1,884 9.00 £780 9.20 £796 9.40 £1,034 9.60 £970 9.80 £11 £1,483 10.00 £1,805 10.50 £3,700 11.00 £2,982 11.02 £209 £3,362 |
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1.20 - More Like It
COMBINED ATTEMPTS BANK 985.65 points Available odds: 6.6 (betfair) My odds: 5-1 (16.67%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 9.92 points WIN |
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1.30 there are again a few to choose from that might win.....so PASS on this race....GALANT EYE might be a PLACE back ....but leaving alone as CLAIMER race.
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1.40 pass again...too open......not prepared to take time to study race ...
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1.55 Juvenile Hurdle race ....I'm not too strong on this type of race ( though sometimes I spot high odds ones that are worth a punt like 2 days ago!!!!!) SO PASS.......a few that catch eye are
Flannel Causeway King Navajo Nation Not sure ...so PASS! |
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2.05 at least 6 that may well win...so not clear PASS.
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