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4.10 Carraigh Na Loine
ATTEMPT 2 Bank =667.63 before next race Available odds: 20 WIN (betfair) My odds:9-1 (10%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 33.47 EW ...place odds 5.7 |
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Winning nap :D :D :D ...in comp!
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well done DFC
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Cheers MFS ....needed that for here ...+ comp .....never saw race either ...so no idea how it won !!!!
You are going very well ....wd :D |
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Ayr 3.55
1st 9 On The Loose (IRE) 15-2 2nd 6 Croeso Cusan 8-1 3rd 2 Social Rhythm 5-1 Think I ruined odds by posting to naps comp early ]:) |
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SMUGGLERS BAY IR place odds
Weth 31st Oct - To Be Placed Betting on: RamvaswaniGoldan JessAldiruosKealshore BoyAmalfi CoastDeadlineSmugglers BayPeaceful MeansTerenziumA Little DifferentAlittleanoften Total matched on this event: £97,985 (Exchange: £94,621, BSP: £ 3,364) Reduction Factor 11.85% Betting summary - Volume: £6,428 (Exchange: £6,208, BSP: £ 220) Last price matched: 2.94 Betfair Starting Price: 4.7 Inverse Axis The information on this page may be slightly delayed. Exchange Traded And Available Betfair Starting Price Price To back To lay Traded Backers' Stake Layers' Liability 1.01 £1,365 1.02 £50 1.03 £5 1.04 £13 1.06 £50 1.07 £11 1.10 £6 1.11 £4 1.12 £3 1.16 £0 1.20 £3 1.22 £40 1.24 £0 1.25 £60 1.32 £13 1.40 £24 1.53 £4 2.06 £4 2.08 £58 2.10 £52 2.34 £0 2.36 £4 2.50 £6 2.52 £174 2.94 £8 3.60 £10 3.65 £209 3.70 £333 3.75 £361 3.80 £241 3.85 £45 3.90 £200 3.95 £85 4.00 £1,096 4.10 £628 4.17 £4 4.20 £622 4.30 £1,588 4.40 £263 4.50 £15 4.60 £0 4.70 £10 £113 £398 4.80 £40 4.90 £10 |
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win odds IR
3.90 £9 4.00 £292 4.10 £3 4.20 £22 4.40 £101 4.50 £9 4.60 £4 4.70 £8 4.80 £6 5.00 £365 5.10 £40 5.20 £10 5.30 £48 5.40 £9 5.50 £307 5.60 £18 5.70 £64 5.80 £34 5.90 £139 6.00 £406 6.20 £213 6.40 £41 6.60 £7 6.80 £200 7.00 £346 7.20 £188 7.40 £26 |
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Carraigh Na Loine 28 WIN now ...
Betfair Starting Price: 6.677245 place odds Does not look like has a chance according to market ...soon see... |
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Market correct ...this time !
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ON THE LOOSE win returns
STAKE BACK ON WIN 28.57 STAKE BACK ON PLACE 28.57 win profit 28.57 x 12.50 - 5 % 339.26 place profit 28.57 x 2.85 - 5% 77.35 BANK BF 667.63 ------------------------- BANK now 1141.38 on ATTEMPT 2 |
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4.25 QUERIDO
ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1141.38 points Available odds: 16.5 WIN (betfair) My odds: 9-1 (10%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 44.38 SPLIT EW ...place odds 4.4 |
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Rue De Cabestan might be there at finish ...trainer already won DIV 1 of this race....but will leave alone !
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Bit knackerd....still recovering from last SUNDAY day in the pubs!!!!!!! So stopping now....
Not a particularly good day , as made a few wrong choices again.....but still enough to end up in profit on ATTEMPT 2.......Still over all loss though.... Cheers the noooooo |
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Ayr 4.25
1st 2 Bosamcliff (IRE) 3-1 F 2nd 9 Hawkit (USA) 6-1 3rd 4 Rue De Cabestan (IRE) 14-1 CLOSING BANK on ATTEMPT 2 1,097 points |
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DFCIRONMAN 31 Oct 13:30
Ascot 1.20 1st 5 French Opera 5-4 F 2nd 3 Edgeover 33-1 When I posted this early on .....I did sums wrongly :( STAKE BACK on FRENCH opera winning + 124.57 points WIN PROFIT 1.5 X 124.57 - 5 % + 177.51 BANK after losing place lay on FO BF 612.52 before 1.40 race ---------- BANK before 1.40 race 914.60 points For some daft reason I worked out the liability on place lay on FRENCH OPERA would cost 98.28 points.....but it was only 22.22 liabilty on lay( 63 x 0.56 ....not 1.56) Therefore the CLOSING BANK should be 1173.06 points |
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Just another point worthy of note to thoses interested in KELLY etc
On my first ATTEMPT using KELLY.....had I not did PLACE bets or SFC bets ( usually done instead of place bets)....and put FULL KELLY stake on.....I would have been roughly 80 points worse off. On ATTEMPT 2 ....there were 3 winners today where I only put HALF of KELLY stake on the WIN...and put half on PLACE or SFCS.........Had I put FULLY KELLY stakes on all horses on attempt 2.....the CLOSING BANK would be higher by - FRENCH OPERA ....I should have ignored the place lay ....COST 22 points DEEP PURPLE - extra win profit 211.18 + stake wasted on SFCS57 = cost 268 points ON THE LOOSE .extra win profit 339.26 - place return 77.35 = COST 262 points Therefore CLOSING BANK would have been up by a further 552 points Now this was on a poor day for me............................so when I hit form ...and confidence grows.....the profit that can be achieved with KELLY can be significantly higher....... In effect if I cut out PLACE bets and SFC bets would be 552 points less 80 on attempt 1.........ie 472 points better off ..... It is important to note this......as I am not applying KELLY strictly in accordance with FULL STAKING.......... So from now on I will only do WIN bets. |
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Whilst its very nice to have an "efficient" staking plan. I will give you this to ponder. If you are in fact using a staking system with negative expectation then i would expect the kelly system is the best system to maximise ones loses. I would think it best first to identify whether one was profitable first.
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boba - no negative expectations......just some caution initially on KELLY being applied to horse racing.....I'm confident in my own ability ....it is KELLY I am wary of!
Thanks for post |
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It is STAKING that is my achillies heel........................and the KELLY calculator is helping me a lot SO FAR.......
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Hey DFC, long time no speak!
Best of luck with this... watching with interest |
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k well best of luck. I only deal with football and in general level staking with incremental increases are the best way to go. Some reason for this maybe explained by the fact that the asian bookies taking your bets are also following you in. So it is better to have more predicatable profits in some sense.
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Heres something else to think about with regards to kelly. If you place approximately 2*k where k is the k fraction on a perfect information bet you are guaranteed to make no money. Placing more then twice the kelly fraction and you will in fact lose money.
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Heres something else to think about with regards to kelly. If you place approximately 2*k where k is the k fraction on a perfect information bet you are guaranteed to make no money. Placing more then twice the kelly fraction and you will in fact lose money.
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Thanks Paddy ....need all the luck we can get with horse racing...!!!!
Boba - ......One of main things I like about KELLY is that it is staking based on VALUE ........as I have never been in favour of LEVEL STAKING, as why bet same say on odds on shot where narrow margin of value ....whereas , you place same stake on another horse where differential in value is far far higher .................just seems logical to me. It also helps be stake in accordance with bank position.......................and that is something when you are in the heat of battle betting on horse races it is so easy to OVER STAKE ....WHEN WINNING AND WELL IN PROFIT ( this is what I have been weak on in past)....NOT CHASING etc .... So in theory the combination of controlling staking AND betting more on value should work in my favour ( ATTEMPT 1 was me needing practice , as have not watched much racing last 12 months....and it is important to know what the current way races are being run at any point in season etc) Thanks again for post ...GL with footy bets. |
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level staking is not necessarily fixed. more it operates on a number of levels. you will generally bet more on bigger percieved value. but it wll be stepwise. so u may have 1* bet 2* 3* etc. I am a great advocate of marking to market. If u blindly apply a rule like kelly when you are most wrong and most likely not to have value is when your percieved posistion differs wildly from the market. Just my 2 cents
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boba - apparently you have to be ACCURATE on the probability of horse selection winning.....this is probably impossible.....you can only guess on probability IMO.....it is very subjective.......
So as long as I select horses I perceive as having a chance to win, based on factors I believe are relevant ( some of those factors are probably not accepted by most people setting odds or backing.....but that is irrelevant to me as I know from watching races and checking results that winning horses do tend to have such factors in their favour.....and that is all I need to know), then am reasonably ACCURATE on GUESS, then this should work for me. Most of my selections that do run well....are spotted by me BEFORE the market starts to wade in on them.............so my odds generally are at value......as odds on such horses tend to reduce near off. If I do get PROBABILITY wrong too often .......I will lose ......also if I select wrong horses the same will happen.......but i cannot be perfect on calculating the PROBABILITY of a horse winning......so will be interesting to see how good guessing on PROBABILITY works with KELLY.....]:) :D Switching computer off now....thanks again for posts. Cheers the nooooooooooooo |
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actually u are wrong if you are sufficently variable with regards to your probabilities even if on average you are profitable u can still lose using kellys. You need to have a measure of your uncertainty adjust for this.
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boba- I think it is important to bear in mind that there is far higher amounts of VALUE with horse racing say compared to MATCH market in football matches.....so you can be not quite so accurate , as your margins are higher with winning horses ....or should I say the ones I pick are!
I'm a bit knackered now ....been on here too long...... So thanks again for posts ...good to try to make me think.....and good contribution to thread .... Cheers the noooooooooooooo |
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1.00 Turbo Island
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1173.06 points at start of today Available odds: 4.8 (betfair) My odds: 7-2 (22.22%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 20.55 points win Looks a dodgy race ...as going in between.....and trainers with 2 in race make it harder....but my guess on probability to win is about right IMO.....soon see. GL with bets today |
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1.10 Seefin Mountain
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1152.51 points before next race Available odds: 3.05 (betfair) My odds: 7-4 (36.36%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 42.44 WIN |
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1.20 pass on race
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1.30 SEEKING STRAIGHT
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1110.07 points before 1.10 race Available odds: 14.5 (betfair) My odds: 7-4 (36.36%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 46.39 WIN |
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CORRECTION
1.30 SEEKING STRAIGHT ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1110.07 points before 1.10 race Available odds: 14.5 (betfair) My odds: 8-1 (11.11%) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 46.39 WIN |
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1.50 £2,724 £551
1.51 £1,000 £1,292 1.52 £50 1.53 £100 £670 1.54 £22 1.55 £200 £24 1.56 £20 £4 1.57 £45 1.59 £800 1.60 £64 £42 1.61 £180 £488 1.62 £828 1.63 £38 £285 1.64 £223 1.65 £216 1.66 £37 £48 1.67 £40 1.68 £122 1.69 £956 1.70 £1,449 1.71 £294 1.72 £114 1.73 £55 1.74 £170 1.75 £20 £1,615 1.76 £416 1.77 £555 £432 1.78 £345 1.79 £100 £238 1.80 £37 £2,829 1.81 £20 £1,149 1.82 £63 £257 1.83 £3 £1,868 1.84 £309 1.85 £691 1.86 £30 1.87 £9 1.88 £161 1.89 £11 £1,038 1.90 £10 £1,337 1.91 £45 1.92 £609 1.93 £7 1.94 £348 1.95 £49 1.96 £107 1.97 £3 £16 1.98 £518 1.99 £1,513 2.00 £1,481 £12,564 2.02 £3,744 2.04 £2,109 2.06 £2,321 2.08 £705 2.10 £2 £810 2.12 £521 2.14 £205 2.16 £21 £417 2.20 £23 £730 IR odds on SEEFIN M in WIN market |
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1.30 Gavroche Gaugain
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1063.68 points Available odds: 8.4 (betfair) My odds: 6-1 (14.29 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 22.32 WIN |
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1.45 Killfinnan Castle
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1041.86 points Available odds: 23 (betfair) My odds: 12-1 (7.69 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 34.09 points WIN |
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2.56 £1 £225
2.58 £90 2.62 £229 2.72 £118 2.74 £4 2.76 £165 2.78 £14 2.80 £110 £413 2.82 £824 2.84 £23 2.86 £53 2.88 £60 2.92 £4 2.94 £388 2.96 £60 2.98 £174 3.00 £909 3.05 £12 3.10 £358 3.15 £351 3.20 £38 3.25 £114 3.30 £104 3.35 £362 3.40 £113 3.45 £110 3.50 £43 3.55 £52 3.60 £867 3.65 £915 3.70 £2 £188 3.75 £9 Gavroche Gaugain ir win odds at lower end |
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1.55 Safaseef
ATTEMPT 1 Bank : LOST 1,000 points ATTEMPT 2 Bank = 1007.27 points before next race Available odds: 23 (betfair) My odds: 12-1 (7.69 %) Kelly (incl 5% commission) = STAKE 32.97 points WIN |
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11.00 £4 £0
11.50 £7 £10 12.00 £2 £55 12.50 £46 13.00 £10 £8 13.50 £15 14.00 £9 15.00 £4 18.00 £10 18.50 £4 19.00 £8 19.50 £5 20.00 £71 21.00 £65 22.00 £28 23.00 £232 24.00 £171 25.00 £267 26.00 £872 27.00 £1,524 28.00 £1,538 29.00 £628 £138 £3,916 30.00 £326 32.00 £2 £60 40.00 £2 42.00 £4 £66 55.00 £28 1000.00 £99 Killfinnan Castle IR WIN ODDS......never threatened ... |
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2.05 KILLYGLEN likely winner ...but not tempted by odds
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